flightuk
Topic Author
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 11:08 pm

Amazon Air (watch this space)

Sat Sep 07, 2019 1:23 pm

Emirates expanded very quickly and successfully in a relatively short period of time. However I predict that will pale into insignificance when compared to what is about to happen with Amazon Air. Amazon has huge financial resources, huge global presence, huge global infrastructure, probably the most technologically advanced and efficient import/export logistics model. Amazon Air already has a fleet of 40 cargo aircraft and by all accounts doing very well in that sector (albeit moving their own stuff) I predict that Amazon air will be the largest global carrier for both freight and passengers by 2040.......
 
Cadet985
Posts: 2150
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2002 6:45 am

Re: Amazon Air (watch this space)

Sat Sep 07, 2019 1:40 pm

While I do see a lot of growth potential for Amazon Air, I can’t see your prediction coming true.

Amazon Air carries their own packages. They’re not carrying freight from factory to merchant, or factory to store. They’re not carrying international trade — cars, agriculture, etc.

In terms of passengers, I definitely don’t see that happening. Amazon is an online retailer. They started an airline to streamline deliveries and compete with the big guys. Starting a passenger division would take resources away from their main business.

Marc
 
flightuk
Topic Author
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 11:08 pm

Re: Amazon Air (watch this space)

Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:00 pm

The way airline routes are going to be awarded and maintained is going to change dramatically over the next 10 years. Profitable routes will be taken away from carriers if they fail to comply and meet strict carbon offsetting rules and will need to have the correct green credentials. A points scoring system will be introduced to justify the flight, Conventional Freight and passengers will no longer be enough to reach and maintain those points, other reasons for moving stuff (retail trans-border, humanitarian etc....) will be needed as well. Radical changes are coming, mostly being driven through environmental issues.
 
jetblueguy22
Posts: 3211
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:26 am

Re: Amazon Air (watch this space)

Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:58 pm

Yeah no. Amazon Air may be exploding growth wise, but that’s only because the amount that they shipped through other carriers was enormous. Bringing a lot of that in house creates benefits and obviously fleet growth, but they will not be US3 large, ever.

Amazon is successful because they know where they know where demand is in their network. If they have to fly everything from
Here to there and everywhere, they lose the cost advantage as well as the time advantage.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
PlymSpotter
Posts: 10550
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:32 am

Re: Amazon Air (watch this space)

Sat Sep 07, 2019 4:24 pm

flightuk wrote:
Radical changes are coming, mostly being driven through environmental issues.


What examples can you provide here, and what evidence is there that government mandated changes are coming in the next ten years?

Aviation and the environment is an issue I am very, very closely involved with. I simply don't see it right now, but I'm always interested to be presented with new evidence.

Also, it is worth noting that if any regulation were to be placed on aviation, it would fundamentally affect Amazon's core business. They are one of the least environmentally friendly companies out there right now and are responsible for driving a very negative change in our shopping habits. Their whole business model is based on immediacy - serving societies laziness and desire to receive goods right now, in their own home or office. The environmental cost of rush shipping toilet roll (for instance) from Amazon, compared with walking to your local shop and buying it, is significant.
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flightuk
Topic Author
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 11:08 pm

Re: Amazon Air (watch this space)

Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:41 pm

United Nations Climate Change Conference. COP 24/CMP 14/CMA 1-3, Katowice, Poland 2018. A white paper was tabled and debated at length. First stage motions to be approved at COP 25/CMP 15/CMA 2, Santiago, Chile in December this year. It's all happening right now!!
 
PlymSpotter
Posts: 10550
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2004 7:32 am

Re: Amazon Air (watch this space)

Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:18 pm

Those are just the official titles of the conferences, not details of the white paper you are referring to?

The problem is that it's all been happening 'right now' since Berlin in 1995. The UN moves slower than a retreating glacier - its deeply frustrating.
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
flightuk
Topic Author
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 11:08 pm

Re: Amazon Air (watch this space)

Sun Sep 08, 2019 3:54 pm

Yes, they do move very slow, however, there does seem to be a shift to bring in a carbon scoring points system.
 
atomicstar
Posts: 84
Joined: Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:10 pm

Re: Amazon Air (watch this space)

Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:00 pm

There is quite some growth, but I don't predict it all happening

Amazon Air transports their own freight. While I do predict that Amazon will start a courier service (to go along with their own shipping for retail), I doubt they will start shipping for international trade (such as materials, vehicles, large manufactured goods, etc.).

And I highly doubt they will start a passenger airline division, seeing that it is not close to anything Amazon is doing in their divisions.
 
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SierraPacific
Posts: 311
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 1:48 am

Re: Amazon Air (watch this space)

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:41 am

One problem with Amazon Air is that they rely on contract carriers. Until they take it in house, they have a very finite ceiling of growth without bringing it in house.

Also once they bring it in house, they will have to deal with Teamsters or ALPA which is something that Amazon is scared to death of.
 
jetblueguy22
Posts: 3211
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:26 am

Re: Amazon Air (watch this space)

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:43 am

SierraPacific wrote:
One problem with Amazon Air is that they rely on contract carriers. Until they take it in house, they have a very finite ceiling of growth without bringing it in house.

Also once they bring it in house, they will have to deal with Teamsters or ALPA which is something that Amazon is scared to death of.

They contract out specifically so they don't have to deal with the unions. They could have absolutely gotten everything in order to run it themselves, but it's never going to happen.

The beauty of contracting out to them is being able to pit carriers against each other to get the best costs possible. Not to mention it gives them the opportunity to move work around if things don't go there. It's guaranteed flying for the airlines, they're going to eat it up. They may buy bits of carriers, but owning them outright opens them up to issues they don't want to deal with.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
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SierraPacific
Posts: 311
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 1:48 am

Re: Amazon Air (watch this space)

Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:45 pm

jetblueguy22 wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
One problem with Amazon Air is that they rely on contract carriers. Until they take it in house, they have a very finite ceiling of growth without bringing it in house.

Also once they bring it in house, they will have to deal with Teamsters or ALPA which is something that Amazon is scared to death of.

They contract out specifically so they don't have to deal with the unions. They could have absolutely gotten everything in order to run it themselves, but it's never going to happen.

The beauty of contracting out to them is being able to pit carriers against each other to get the best costs possible. Not to mention it gives them the opportunity to move work around if things don't go there. It's guaranteed flying for the airlines, they're going to eat it up. They may buy bits of carriers, but owning them outright opens them up to issues they don't want to deal with.



I agree it is classic corporate outsourcing in order to not have to pay for employees but Amazon will have to bring it in house at some point if they want to expand as much as the OP wants.
 
blueflyer
Posts: 4097
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 4:17 am

Re: Amazon Air (watch this space)

Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:24 am

SierraPacific wrote:
One problem with Amazon Air is that they rely on contract carriers. Until they take it in house, they have a very finite ceiling of growth without bringing it in house.

They don't necessarily have to bring it all in-house. The model for Amazon Air may be DHL Aviation. DHL owns five airlines, has a minority stake in several others, and still relies extensively on contract carriers flying anything from a 777 to a Cessna in their network. Some of these contract carriers bring their own aircraft to the operation, while others fly planes leased from... DHL Aviation.
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