UAUA
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Is the B747-8 passenger still in production?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 5:57 am

If an airline wants to order the B747-8 passenger is it possible? I suppose so?
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DocLightning
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Re: Is the B747-8 passenger still in production?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 5:59 am

I think Boeing retains the capability, but they have no backlog.
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Momo1435
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Re: Is the B747-8 passenger still in production?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:22 am

An airline who wants to order the 747-8I will by now pay full price for it. Boeing will also offer them a very attractive discount on the 777-9.

Every month Boeing doesn't built a 747-8I will add to the costs of restarting the production of specific 747-8I parts. Boeing won't be actively pitching it anymore to potential customers, especially they also have 777 line to fill up.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Is the B747-8 passenger still in production?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:32 am

IINM, didn't Boeing discontinue vender stockpile for the the parts specific to the -8i, right around the time that that Seattle Times article came out stating that "the 747 has no future"...?

They did similarly with the 764ER a few years ago, despite continuing to make the 763ER.
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juliuswong
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Re: Is the B747-8 passenger still in production?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 7:20 am

UAUA wrote:
If an airline wants to order the B747-8 passenger is it possible? I suppose so?

Yes, if there is any airline who wants to order B747-8 pax version, Boeing is more than happy to cut the deal. It is still being offered at their official website: https://www.boeing.com/commercial/747/

However it would depends on how Boeing suppliers can accommodate as well. Currently all remaining backlog are for freighters version.
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747WanSui
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Re: Is the B747-8 passenger still in production?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:08 pm

I think this model is still "on the menu" just like the Boeing 767-300ER is still available for production, even though there are currently no unfilled orders for that model.
Long live the Boeing 747!
 
WorldFlier
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Re: Is the B747-8 passenger still in production?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:13 pm

The line is there in the expectation of a multi-billion dollar contract for 2 (or more) very special frames to replace the aging Air Force One (I know its not Air Force One unless the president is in it, its a VC-25)...

If Trump win's a 2nd term, expect an order for a really tricked out gold-plated set of VC-747-8is that would make Gulf Coast Royals, Putin and the Sultan of Brunei blush with embarrassment.
 
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Re: Is the B747-8 passenger still in production?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:23 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
The line is there in the expectation of a multi-billion dollar contract for 2 (or more) very special frames to replace the aging Air Force One (I know its not Air Force One unless the president is in it, its a VC-25)...

If Trump win's a 2nd term, expect an order for a really tricked out gold-plated set of VC-747-8is that would make Gulf Coast Royals, Putin and the Sultan of Brunei blush with embarrassment.


Are these 2 not the white tails intended for Transaero, and therefore not needing 2 new builds, just need to be sent to the airforce for all the bells and whistles?
 
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JannEejit
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Re: Is the B747-8 passenger still in production?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:26 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:
The line is there in the expectation of a multi-billion dollar contract for 2 (or more) very special frames to replace the aging Air Force One (I know its not Air Force One unless the president is in it, its a VC-25)...

If Trump win's a 2nd term, expect an order for a really tricked out gold-plated set of VC-747-8is that would make Gulf Coast Royals, Putin and the Sultan of Brunei blush with embarrassment.


Are these 2 not the white tails intended for Transaero, and therefore not needing 2 new builds, just need to be sent to the airforce for all the bells and whistles?


Yes that's what I thought too. Trump was boasting of his cut price deal with Boeing.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Is the B747-8 passenger still in production?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 11:27 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
The line is there in the expectation of a multi-billion dollar contract for 2 (or more) very special frames to replace the aging Air Force One (I know its not Air Force One unless the president is in it, its a VC-25)...

If Trump win's a 2nd term, expect an order for a really tricked out gold-plated set of VC-747-8is that would make Gulf Coast Royals, Putin and the Sultan of Brunei blush with embarrassment.


Trump has already Executive Ordered that the two Transaero NTUs be tasked to become the VC-25Bs and Congress has allocated the funds to do so.

So no new-builds.
 
FlyHPN
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Re: Is the B747-8 passenger still in production?

Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:28 am

747WanSui wrote:
I think this model is still "on the menu" just like the Boeing 767-300ER is still available for production, even though there are currently no unfilled orders for that model.

Although it’s on the menu, it’s not really for sale. In late 2017, Boeing was studying reintroducing 767 passenger production for a reported “large order”. https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... nited.html

About 6 months later, they effectively said that they don’t intend to do it. https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... on-446453/

Not to say time hasn't changed any minds.
 
konrad
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Future 747-8 orders?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:33 pm

Is there any future for the 747-8 program apart from the freighter? With several airlines reducing / preparing to reduce their A380 fleets and no new orders the 748 might remain the only UL aircraft available. Or do the two-holers cover all jobs nowadays?
 
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Polot
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:52 pm

Boeing is no longer actively marketing the 747-8i to airlines.
 
SEU
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:54 pm

Yeah, if you knock on Boeing's door to ask for a 747-8i, they'll direct you to the 777X.
 
RalXWB
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:55 pm

The 748 threads are the new "When will Boeing restart production of the 757" threads :white:
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:00 pm

Thats call B777-10
 
Antarius
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:04 pm

No future. Both the 748 and a380 are dead. There's no need for a quad anymore.
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Sooner787
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:14 pm

I could see a few more top off orders from current 747-8F customers,
and I imagine Boeing could be doing the last call to those airlines
before announcing the end of production.
 
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:58 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
I could see a few more top off orders from current 747-8F customers,
and I imagine Boeing could be doing the last call to those airlines
before announcing the end of production.


At 6 aircraft produced per year, Boeing doesn't need to sell very many freighters to keep production going for a long time. The current backlog is about 3 1/2 years worth of production.
 
wave46
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 3:21 pm

Dominion301 wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
I could see a few more top off orders from current 747-8F customers,
and I imagine Boeing could be doing the last call to those airlines
before announcing the end of production.


At 6 aircraft produced per year, Boeing doesn't need to sell very many freighters to keep production going for a long time. The current backlog is about 3 1/2 years worth of production.


I'm curious if even that is sustainable over the long run. There's UPS and then as far as I see.....nobody.

The early 2020s may be the end of the quad-engine airliner.
 
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American 767
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Re: Is the B747-8 passenger still in production?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:02 pm

747WanSui wrote:
I think this model is still "on the menu" just like the Boeing 767-300ER is still available for production, even though there are currently no unfilled orders for that model.


As freighters, yes.
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Stitch
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:24 pm

wave46 wrote:
I'm curious if even that is sustainable over the long run. There's UPS and then as far as I see.....nobody.

The early 2020s may be the end of the quad-engine airliner.


UPS is certainly holding the line together at the moment, but general cargo operators like Volga-Dnepr and ABC have been adding small batches of frames over the past few years, as well.

IATA continues to show 2019 being weaker than 2018 in terms of available freight tonne kilometers, however there also seems to be consolidation within the industry with the operators with newer fleets (747-8F, 777F, A332R, 763F) taking more and more of what market there is. So that could encourage said 747-8F operators to continue to add in moderated amounts for a few more years.

The above being said, I agree I don't see this supporting a decades-long production run and by the end of the next decade, Boeing might very well be in a position to shutter the 747 family. By then the 777-8F could/should be available and I see it taking over the "heavy lift" role from the 747 freighter family.
 
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:32 pm

wave46 wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
I could see a few more top off orders from current 747-8F customers,
and I imagine Boeing could be doing the last call to those airlines
before announcing the end of production.


At 6 aircraft produced per year, Boeing doesn't need to sell very many freighters to keep production going for a long time. The current backlog is about 3 1/2 years worth of production.


I'm curious if even that is sustainable over the long run. There's UPS and then as far as I see.....nobody.

The early 2020s may be the end of the quad-engine airliner.


As of July 2019, the backlog for 747s is 20. So by now it'd be down to about 18 (of which 14 are for UPS) or 3 years of production. There's a very good chance Boeing will sell more Fs in that timeframe.

http://www.modernairliners.com/boeing-7 ... eliveries/

Airbus forecasts 356 > 80 tonne payload aircraft being needed in the next 20 years. Surely a trickle of that will continue as 747s.
 
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vhtje
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:08 pm

I know! Qantas will order the 747-8 for Project Sunrise! This will trigger a rush of orders for the type from other carriers, thus keeping the 747 line open for another fifteen years!

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Flyingsottsman
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:23 am

vhtje wrote:
I know! Qantas will order the 747-8 for Project Sunrise! This will trigger a rush of orders for the type from other carriers, thus keeping the 747 line open for another fifteen years!

<I’ll grab my coat...>


Lol, I wish, Melbourne Airport is so boring to spot now that no more 747s fly into Melbourne. I do wonder if it did at one stage cross QF's mind to order the 748?
 
Sokes
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:40 pm

Just out of curiosity:
What carbon fibre wingspan could a B747 wingbox support?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Fri Sep 20, 2019 6:01 am

Stitch wrote:
wave46 wrote:
I'm curious if even that is sustainable over the long run. There's UPS and then as far as I see.....nobody.

The early 2020s may be the end of the quad-engine airliner.


UPS is certainly holding the line together at the moment, but general cargo operators like Volga-Dnepr and ABC have been adding small batches of frames over the past few years, as well.

IATA continues to show 2019 being weaker than 2018 in terms of available freight tonne kilometers, however there also seems to be consolidation within the industry with the operators with newer fleets (747-8F, 777F, A332R, 763F) taking more and more of what market there is. So that could encourage said 747-8F operators to continue to add in moderated amounts for a few more years.

The above being said, I agree I don't see this supporting a decades-long production run and by the end of the next decade, Boeing might very well be in a position to shutter the 747 family. By then the 777-8F could/should be available and I see it taking over the "heavy lift" role from the 747 freighter family.


well, while what you are writing is correct, the thinking was, as debated in this forum and others, that building 6 frames a year was not Boeing's goal in itself.
6 frames a year is a "bridge" into the future -- where, as expected, at some point, a need for front-loaded aircraft will collide with a cold reality of scarcity of An-124 and retirements of 747-400F fleet.
Once that ball gets rolling, the operators will have to choose -- whether to forgo front loading option. And if not -- they have only one type to order -- 747-8F.
When that scenario comes to pass -- and cargo operators rush to order 747-8F -- then Boeing has an opportunity to evaluate a speeding up of the line.
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seabosdca
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:40 pm

Every year that Boeing can keep the line open is a year closer to the peak of 747-400F replacement needs, which will come during the early to mid 2020s. In the best case scenario, replacing 747-400Fs and mild growth could probably bring Boeing 150 additional 747-8F orders over half a decade, enough to support 1.5 frames/month for a few years before the line finally closes. Of course reality is likely not to be that rosy. Some operators will probably choose the 777F, some may exit the cargo business, and others may sit on their hands and continue to pile hours on those durable 747-400Fs until something new (777-8FX?) comes along.
 
Vladex
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:59 pm

Antarius wrote:
No future. Both the 748 and a380 are dead. There's no need for a quad anymore.

Maybe and maybe not. I believe that twins are maxed out, pun intended and have inherent limitations so saying that twins are the only future seems like a trap which leaves only quads as a way of getting better efficiency due to bigger engines ch seems paradoxical but also logical.
 
Antarius
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 3:41 am

Vladex wrote:
Antarius wrote:
No future. Both the 748 and a380 are dead. There's no need for a quad anymore.

Maybe and maybe not. I believe that twins are maxed out, pun intended and have inherent limitations so saying that twins are the only future seems like a trap which leaves only quads as a way of getting better efficiency due to bigger engines ch seems paradoxical but also logical.


How so? (As in how are they maxed out?)
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Phosphorus
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:38 am

Antarius wrote:
Vladex wrote:
Antarius wrote:
No future. Both the 748 and a380 are dead. There's no need for a quad anymore.

Maybe and maybe not. I believe that twins are maxed out, pun intended and have inherent limitations so saying that twins are the only future seems like a trap which leaves only quads as a way of getting better efficiency due to bigger engines ch seems paradoxical but also logical.


How so? (As in how are they maxed out?)


From layman's perspective -- something is not right, when engines of twin airliners (like GE90) can be transported only on quads (An-124).

From engineering perspective -- it's been, somewhat anecdotally, observed -- in all design areas, where heat and mass transfer are involved, there is a limit in growth in size, after which the gains from increase in scale stagnate; and then the next limit, when the gains become negative. I'm not an engine designer, but from the way engine guys discuss these things -- it looks awfully like when chemical engineers discuss the current generation of certain polymerization equipment. They discuss high-tech gizmos and tweaks, and glee when half a percent of efficiencies and a couple percent of extra productivity/thrust are squeezed via massive deployment of very advanced manufacturing technology. This gives you a hint that simple routes to growth have all been explored, and are no longer leading anywhere.

Long story short -- probably the jet engines still have some room to become larger, but probably not radically. You could still squeeze out some more thrust out of them.

The question remains -- once a new plane with 500+ seats will be on a drawing board, again -- will it be a twin or a quad?
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Vladex
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Fri Sep 27, 2019 6:12 pm

Antarius wrote:
Vladex wrote:
Antarius wrote:
No future. Both the 748 and a380 are dead. There's no need for a quad anymore.

Maybe and maybe not. I believe that twins are maxed out, pun intended and have inherent limitations so saying that twins are the only future seems like a trap which leaves only quads as a way of getting better efficiency due to bigger engines ch seems paradoxical but also logical.


How so? (As in how are they maxed out?)


It was a pun in reference to 737 MAX. From efficiency standpoint aerodynamic improvements have been almost maxed out with twin engines with winglets/sharklets and that leaves only bigger and more efficient engines but single decks have maxed out ground clearance because of the fundamental design . The wings can't be raised anymore like they are on double decks because of the center of gravity and load balancing. Maybe they can raise a landing gear but that introduces more weight , less fuel and cargo space and looks unattractive.
 
timh4000
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Sun Sep 29, 2019 11:25 pm

Twins will likely be the future for some time. But, they have gotten about as big as they can. Maybe even too big which an argument could be made of the max. They will learn to produce more power and efficiency without getting bigger. Just as the automobile has.
 
CX747
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:18 am

Stitch wrote:
wave46 wrote:
I'm curious if even that is sustainable over the long run. There's UPS and then as far as I see.....nobody.

The early 2020s may be the end of the quad-engine airliner.


UPS is certainly holding the line together at the moment, but general cargo operators like Volga-Dnepr and ABC have been adding small batches of frames over the past few years, as well.

IATA continues to show 2019 being weaker than 2018 in terms of available freight tonne kilometers, however there also seems to be consolidation within the industry with the operators with newer fleets (747-8F, 777F, A332R, 763F) taking more and more of what market there is. So that could encourage said 747-8F operators to continue to add in moderated amounts for a few more years.

The above being said, I agree I don't see this supporting a decades-long production run and by the end of the next decade, Boeing might very well be in a position to shutter the 747 family. By then the 777-8F could/should be available and I see it taking over the "heavy lift" role from the 747 freighter family.


As always, very well stated. I think we are looking at another 8-10 years of production for the 747 if everything goes well. There are still a big number of 747-400Fs out there that will need replacing. Not every 747-400F will be replaced by a 747-8F but if the -8F captures even half the market, it is a big number of widebody jets being ordered.

UPS loves the -8F and I do believe a top up order and possible replacement order for MD-11/747-400Fs could occur. Atlas Air, and Cargolux continue bide their time. Will they order more? Atlas alone would need at least 20 to replace about half of their current 747-400F fleet. Continuing to buy/lease additional 747-400Fs kicks the can down only the road so far.

There was a pretty good discussion on another forum between 747-8F drivers and 777F guys. The actual capabilities, performance and real world usage of both jets. Paper discussions are great but a wonderful conversation truly showed that the 747-8F and 777F are truly two different beasts.

A recent article had several of Cargolux, Volga and Atlas executives together discussing the need for a follow on nose loading freigther. The value they placed on it was very definitive. We shall see what happens but I think the 747 remains in production for another decade. At that time the 777F follow on will take over. Any delay in that program adds additional orders to the 747 program.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
Vladex
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Sun Oct 06, 2019 4:49 pm

timh4000 wrote:
Twins will likely be the future for some time. But, they have gotten about as big as they can. Maybe even too big which an argument could be made of the max. They will learn to produce more power and efficiency without getting bigger. Just as the automobile has.


Everything I read says that more substantial efficiency can only come from larger engines and that can't come on twins. Automobiles have hardly gotten more efficient , maybe 10% and they are also maxed out which is why they are going electric.
 
timh4000
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Re: Future 747-8 orders?

Mon Oct 07, 2019 1:55 am

You could be right. I was referring to the automobiles which to get more power in the 60s'and 70's kept increasing the size of the engine. I had a 72 impala 350cid that got about 200hp. I had a 74 Torino that was basically the same size351 but it was a better motor and I got about 275hp FF to today. I have a infinity q50awd that has a 3.7 V6 so it's significantly smaller 2 less cylinders and gets almost 400hp AND better gas mileage. I agree with you that the eco cars without any electrical side are probably close to max in the low 40mpg. They might be able to squeeze out a little more but doubtful a gas air breathing engine will ever see 60mpg on its own.

So my thought is the trend to twin engines from 3 or more the engines keep getting bigger in size to the point that it's arguable that it's negatively effecting things like pitch. So, I would say that they stay where they are size wise and just continue to build better performance. Currently we have the a350, 747, 777 and 787 all with the right conditions able to go about halfway around the world. So we already have the distance and we are limited to subsonic travel over land, besides which building another supersonic or hypersonic plane can carry few passengers and at least a century before we could figure out how to make those things efficient. Perhaps 10-20 years from now they will figure out 3 or more engine planes will make a comeback.

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