HP69
Topic Author
Posts: 213
Joined: Sat Jun 29, 2019 3:04 pm

Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:43 pm

What do you guys think could be in the cards for potential new DTW S20 adds? LH to MUC shows that there is potential for new routes. I think the following could be possible:

BA DTW-LHR - with DL dropping the second frequency, there is definitely room for BA.
EI DTW-DUB - EI already expanded into a DL midwestern hub (MSP), so why not DTW?
FI DTW-KEF - Fill the hole left by WOW.
KL DTW-AMS - It seems kind of weird that DL has 4x daily and KL has 0. Would replace a DL frequency.

Thoughts?
 
Skyblue39
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:47 pm

I think EI Dublin-Detroit is becoming increasingly likely. EI have gone after DL by entering both Seattle and Minneapolis after DL entered onto
BOS-DUB, so I can definitely see DTW being on the cards for S20 as a contender.
 
WeatherPilot
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:51 pm

I thought the thread title said ‘$20’ instead of ‘S20’.
 
Ishrion
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:58 pm

No offense, but this is probably about to get moved into the Polls section.
 
DTWorld
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:04 pm

EI and FI seem plausible. I really really really want to see DL make MUC year-round in the future instead of just seasonal. With LH starting the route next May, it might be a matter of who blinks first.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:12 pm

DTWorld wrote:
EI and FI seem plausible. I really really really want to see DL make MUC year-round in the future instead of just seasonal. With LH starting the route next May, it might be a matter of who blinks first.


DL and LH aren't targeting the same passengers on DTW-MUC. DL is after tourists to Bavaria. LH is after Germany-originating auto industry traffic. We see in CLT that LH can make MUC routes work close to exclusively on the strength of Germany point of sale business traffic, so I'm not convinced that the two cannot coexist. If DL (or NW) thought there was a business case for year-round service focusing on the US-originating traffic, we'd have seen it by now.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
EI321
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:19 pm

I'd say Aer Lingus to Dublin is almost a certainty. I would like to see Delta fly the route too.
 
Ishrion
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:27 pm

I don't believe Icelandair will expand yet. They have too much restraints with the current MAX groundings.
 
GSP psgr
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:36 pm

I wonder if we might see DL pull the domestic 752 trick with DTW-DUB; EI is another possibility there. Overall, I get the impression that there is not all that much slack in the int'l Delta longhaul fleet, and BOS is likely to consume the lion's share of that this year. I just think there are higher priorities for the limited long haul capacity this year (BOS, a BNA tatl, LGW, and apparently FCO expansion now as well). On that last note, I wonder if we might see DL try to move DTW-FCO to if not year round, then a much longer season.

I honestly think BA is more likely to do other things before coming back to DTW; my hunch is that we'll see LHR-CLE/STL first.

I've always also thought that TK's network lined up really well with the VFR travel in the Detroit Metro area, but alas, we haven't seen that one happen yet either.
 
panamair
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:29 pm

HP69 wrote:
BA DTW-LHR - with DL dropping the second frequency, there is definitely room for BA.


Where are you getting that DL is dropping the second DTW-LHR frequency? Both flights are still loaded and for sale for next summer.
And BA did not start DTW-LHR even when DL had a single daily DTW-LHR, so what makes you think they will go for it now?
 
HP69
Topic Author
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Tue Sep 24, 2019 11:27 pm

panamair wrote:
HP69 wrote:
BA DTW-LHR - with DL dropping the second frequency, there is definitely room for BA.


Where are you getting that DL is dropping the second DTW-LHR frequency? Both flights are still loaded and for sale for next summer.
And BA did not start DTW-LHR even when DL had a single daily DTW-LHR, so what makes you think they will go for it now?


The second DTW flight will instead be seasonal, and SLC will go year-round. Announced a while back.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:48 am

HP69 wrote:
KL DTW-AMS - It seems kind of weird that DL has 4x daily and KL has 0. Would replace a DL frequency.


The compliance mechanism in the PWA doesn't look at number of flights by airport pair and declare that XX% goes to DL and YY% goes to JV partners. They can optimize profit by looking at airframe size, utilization, crew availability, etc. and decide assignments jointly. That it's 4-0 on a specific airport pair is utterly meaningless.
 
IPFreely
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Wed Sep 25, 2019 2:29 am

HP69 wrote:
BA DTW-LHR - with DL dropping the second frequency, there is definitely room for BA.


Why? DL has feed on the DTW end of this route only, BA has (would have) feed on the LHR end of this route only.

The DL route makes sense -- lots of people from Detroit and all over the world want to go to London for both business and tourism reasons.

The BA route -- how many people in London (or anywhere else) want to go to Detroit?
 
klm617
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Wed Sep 25, 2019 12:07 pm

IPFreely wrote:
HP69 wrote:
BA DTW-LHR - with DL dropping the second frequency, there is definitely room for BA.


Why? DL has feed on the DTW end of this route only, BA has (would have) feed on the LHR end of this route only.

The DL route makes sense -- lots of people from Detroit and all over the world want to go to London for both business and tourism reasons.

The BA route -- how many people in London (or anywhere else) want to go to Detroit?



More than you think. Come and find out why Detroit and Michigan are such amazing places. Sure every major urban area has their problems but for some reason people like to focus on that more when the conversation is about Detroit. I love my city and I love my state.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qY02yEvqFio&t=15s
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
IPFreely
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Thu Sep 26, 2019 2:33 pm

klm617 wrote:
More than you think. Come and find out why Detroit and Michigan are such amazing places. Sure every major urban area has their problems but for some reason people like to focus on that more when the conversation is about Detroit. I love my city and I love my state.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qY02yEvqFio&t=15s


That’s great but I’m never going to fly LHR-DTW. If you want BA to fly the route you need to create demand where BA’s customers are — in England. Perhaps the Thames River could be lined with signs saying “Spend your holiday in Detroit” :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
David_itl
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:54 am

Err.. dare I say DTW-MAN?

With the demise of Thomas Cook, Virgin is eyeing their MAN slots per https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-26/virgin-atlantic-targets-manchester-growth-with-thomas-cook-slots.

It does contain this sentence:

"Some new flights at Manchester could be operated by Virgin’s partner and 49% owner Delta Air Lines Inc. if the U.K. carrier first secures the slots, the CEO said."

Greater chance of success with the Connect Airways (Flybe) schedules which ought to be aligned with Virgin's services by next summer.
 
klm617
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:09 pm

David_itl wrote:
Err.. dare I say DTW-MAN?

With the demise of Thomas Cook, Virgin is eyeing their MAN slots per https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-26/virgin-atlantic-targets-manchester-growth-with-thomas-cook-slots.

It does contain this sentence:

"Some new flights at Manchester could be operated by Virgin’s partner and 49% owner Delta Air Lines Inc. if the U.K. carrier first secures the slots, the CEO said."

Greater chance of success with the Connect Airways (Flybe) schedules which ought to be aligned with Virgin's services by next summer.



I've been saying this for a while now.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:47 pm

These three are givens and should have happened already. The longer the airport waits to secure these routes the less likely they are to ever happen. It should be all hands on deck to make sure DTW get's these adds sooner rather than later.

DTW-MAN DL
DTW-KEF FI
DTW-DUB EI.


They need to have enough time to mature before the next economic downturn that's why it's so important to lands these routes. Other airports get it I don't understand why DTW keeps dragging it's feet on these additions.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
Ishrion
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sat Sep 28, 2019 5:36 pm

klm617 wrote:
These three are givens and should have happened already. The longer the airport waits to secure these routes the less likely they are to ever happen. It should be all hands on deck to make sure DTW get's these adds sooner rather than later.

DTW-MAN DL
DTW-KEF FI
DTW-DUB EI.


They need to have enough time to mature before the next economic downturn that's why it's so important to lands these routes. Other airports get it I don't understand why DTW keeps dragging it's feet on these additions.


Like I said before, Icelandair is highly unlikely right now because it's restricted on aircraft due to the MAX groundings.

Aer Lingus is limited as well as they are gradually taking delivery of their A321LRs.

The longer the airport waits to secure these routes the less likely they are to ever happen. They need to have enough time to mature before the next economic downturn that's why it's so important to lands these routes.


???

Are you suggesting the economy in the respective countries/cities are declining, or that there will be an imminent economic crisis in the near future?

Other airports get it I don't understand why DTW keeps dragging it's feet on these additions.


Maybe it's not the airport but it's because the airline doesn't want to fly to DTW or has better places to utilize its aircraft?
 
klm617
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:59 pm

Ishrion wrote:
klm617 wrote:
These three are givens and should have happened already. The longer the airport waits to secure these routes the less likely they are to ever happen. It should be all hands on deck to make sure DTW get's these adds sooner rather than later.

DTW-MAN DL
DTW-KEF FI
DTW-DUB EI.


They need to have enough time to mature before the next economic downturn that's why it's so important to lands these routes. Other airports get it I don't understand why DTW keeps dragging it's feet on these additions.


Like I said before, Icelandair is highly unlikely right now because it's restricted on aircraft due to the MAX groundings.

Aer Lingus is limited as well as they are gradually taking delivery of their A321LRs.

The longer the airport waits to secure these routes the less likely they are to ever happen. They need to have enough time to mature before the next economic downturn that's why it's so important to lands these routes.


???

Are you suggesting the economy in the respective countries/cities are declining, or that there will be an imminent economic crisis in the near future?

Other airports get it I don't understand why DTW keeps dragging it's feet on these additions.


Maybe it's not the airport but it's because the airline doesn't want to fly to DTW or has better places to utilize its aircraft?


Excuses it didn't stop the from adding PHL or MSP. MAX should be up and running by years end software updates due to start in the next month. Smoke and mirrors. The next economic recession could be just around the corner and the airport needs to lock these routes down before that happens. There is no evidence to say that Detroit isn't a good place to invest in unless you try so everything is subjective. Everything is as possible as it isn't until you try.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
Ishrion
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:17 pm

klm617 wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
klm617 wrote:
These three are givens and should have happened already. The longer the airport waits to secure these routes the less likely they are to ever happen. It should be all hands on deck to make sure DTW get's these adds sooner rather than later.

DTW-MAN DL
DTW-KEF FI
DTW-DUB EI.


They need to have enough time to mature before the next economic downturn that's why it's so important to lands these routes. Other airports get it I don't understand why DTW keeps dragging it's feet on these additions.


Like I said before, Icelandair is highly unlikely right now because it's restricted on aircraft due to the MAX groundings.

Aer Lingus is limited as well as they are gradually taking delivery of their A321LRs.

The longer the airport waits to secure these routes the less likely they are to ever happen. They need to have enough time to mature before the next economic downturn that's why it's so important to lands these routes.


???

Are you suggesting the economy in the respective countries/cities are declining, or that there will be an imminent economic crisis in the near future?

Other airports get it I don't understand why DTW keeps dragging it's feet on these additions.


Maybe it's not the airport but it's because the airline doesn't want to fly to DTW or has better places to utilize its aircraft?


Excuses it didn't stop the from adding PHL or MSP. MAX should be up and running by years end software updates due to start in the next month. Smoke and mirrors. The next economic recession could be just around the corner and the airport needs to lock these routes down before that happens. There is no evidence to say that Detroit isn't a good place to invest in unless you try so everything is subjective. Everything is as possible as it isn't until you try.


Excuses it didn't stop the from adding PHL or MSP


...And that's why they're limited on aircraft right now...

The next economic recession could be just around the corner and the airport needs to lock these routes down before that happens.


Why do you think it's an absolute must for Detroit to receive service to Reykjavik, Dublin, and Manchester? If there's some massive economic downturn that could be "around the corner", why would airlines be adding routes in the near future? You'd see them cutting capacity, not increasing. Even the most mature routes can be cut due to some crisis.

For example, United's Chicago to Hong Kong route was in place for many years... yet once Hong Kong began to experience problems, United slashed the route. What makes you say DTW-KEF/DUB/MAN won't be the first to fall?

There is no evidence to say that Detroit isn't a good place to invest in unless you try so everything is subjective. Everything is as possible as it isn't until you try.


Okay, can't wait to see American Airlines launch Detroit to London Heathrow as some people say "Detroit could use an additional LHR service"

Waiting on a direct connection between Xiamen and Detroit... Preferably Delta Air Lines. They should test the route to examine the possible profitability. They don't have other places that the aircraft can be utilized on, anyways...
 
klm617
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sun Sep 29, 2019 12:11 am

Ishrion wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

Like I said before, Icelandair is highly unlikely right now because it's restricted on aircraft due to the MAX groundings.

Aer Lingus is limited as well as they are gradually taking delivery of their A321LRs.



???

Are you suggesting the economy in the respective countries/cities are declining, or that there will be an imminent economic crisis in the near future?



Maybe it's not the airport but it's because the airline doesn't want to fly to DTW or has better places to utilize its aircraft?


Excuses it didn't stop the from adding PHL or MSP. MAX should be up and running by years end software updates due to start in the next month. Smoke and mirrors. The next economic recession could be just around the corner and the airport needs to lock these routes down before that happens. There is no evidence to say that Detroit isn't a good place to invest in unless you try so everything is subjective. Everything is as possible as it isn't until you try.


Excuses it didn't stop the from adding PHL or MSP


...And that's why they're limited on aircraft right now...

The next economic recession could be just around the corner and the airport needs to lock these routes down before that happens.


Why do you think it's an absolute must for Detroit to receive service to Reykjavik, Dublin, and Manchester? If there's some massive economic downturn that could be "around the corner", why would airlines be adding routes in the near future? You'd see them cutting capacity, not increasing. Even the most mature routes can be cut due to some crisis.

For example, United's Chicago to Hong Kong route was in place for many years... yet once Hong Kong began to experience problems, United slashed the route. What makes you say DTW-KEF/DUB/MAN won't be the first to fall?

There is no evidence to say that Detroit isn't a good place to invest in unless you try so everything is subjective. Everything is as possible as it isn't until you try.


Okay, can't wait to see American Airlines launch Detroit to London Heathrow as some people say "Detroit could use an additional LHR service"

Waiting on a direct connection between Xiamen and Detroit... Preferably Delta Air Lines. They should test the route to examine the possible profitability. They don't have other places that the aircraft can be utilized on, anyways...


This post is about potential new routes not reasons why routes are not added please stay on topic here. For the record Detroit doesn't need more LHR flights that route is well covered by Delta. Hence I didn't add that in my comment. The three I stated are needs at the moment and they need to get established before the next economic down turn or they will never happen. All three are very viable and until proven otherwise there is no reason to doubt their potential end of story.

By the way HKG is still linked to ORD via CX so it's very viable.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
winginit
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sun Sep 29, 2019 1:54 am

klm617 wrote:
The three I stated are needs at the moment and they need to get established before the next economic down turn or they will never happen. All three are very viable and until proven otherwise there is no reason to doubt their potential end of story.


As those routes haven't yet been announced or launched, that seems pretty solid proof in and of itself that they aren't 'very viable' as you say and their potential should be called into question. As you say - end of story.
 
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chepos
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:12 am

Why should DL fly DTW-MAN? Is there a huge amount of traffic headed to midwest towns that airlines are just just not serving? I believe most meaningful connecting opportunities inbound from MAN are currently adequately captured with present service.



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David_itl
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sun Sep 29, 2019 8:27 am

chepos wrote:
Why should DL fly DTW-MAN? Is there a huge amount of traffic headed to midwest towns that airlines are just just not serving? I believe most meaningful connecting opportunities inbound from MAN are currently adequately captured with present service.


Where else would DL fly to MAN from if VS indicates that should they get the additional slots they are requesting, DL may end up using some of them? This is the massive chance to sew up transatlantic travel from the North of England for DL/VS.
 
IPFreely
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Mon Sep 30, 2019 12:53 am

klm617 wrote:
These three are givens and should have happened already. The longer the airport waits to secure these routes the less likely they are to ever happen. It should be all hands on deck to make sure DTW get's these adds sooner rather than later.

DTW-MAN DL
DTW-KEF FI
DTW-DUB EI.


They need to have enough time to mature before the next economic downturn that's why it's so important to lands these routes. Other airports get it I don't understand why DTW keeps dragging it's feet on these additions.


These three are a given? Is this a joke? FI and EI have no feed in DTW and no code share or partner connections beyond DTW. The only pax they would have are people in Iceland and Dublin who want to go to Detroit. In other words, none. For MAN, DL would add JFK, ATL, or MSP before DTW. As far as connections, DTW offers nothing that isn't available from JFK, ATL, and MSP. And for o/d, unlike DTW, there are people in MAN who might want to go to JFK, ATL, or MSP. DTW already punches far above it's weight in TATL routes. They will be lucky to keep what they have.
 
klm617
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Wed Oct 16, 2019 1:52 pm

It's Oct 16....TATL announcements soon or "wait till next year?" When is too late? Thoughts?
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
Ishrion
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Wed Oct 16, 2019 5:25 pm

klm617 wrote:
It's Oct 16....TATL announcements soon or "wait till next year?" When is too late? Thoughts?


It’s never too late. Airlines have announced new TATL routes in March which will launch in Sept/Oct.
 
dfwjim1
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:23 pm

IPFreely wrote:
klm617 wrote:
More than you think. Come and find out why Detroit and Michigan are such amazing places. Sure every major urban area has their problems but for some reason people like to focus on that more when the conversation is about Detroit. I love my city and I love my state.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qY02yEvqFio&t=15s


That’s great but I’m never going to fly LHR-DTW. If you want BA to fly the route you need to create demand where BA’s customers are — in England. Perhaps the Thames River could be lined with signs saying “Spend your holiday in Detroit” :lol: :lol: :lol:


Nice video but why would a visitor from overseas want to visit Detroit when San Francisco, LA, NYC, Miami...etc are so much more desirable?
 
klm617
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Thu Oct 17, 2019 10:10 pm

dfwjim1 wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
klm617 wrote:
More than you think. Come and find out why Detroit and Michigan are such amazing places. Sure every major urban area has their problems but for some reason people like to focus on that more when the conversation is about Detroit. I love my city and I love my state.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qY02yEvqFio&t=15s


That’s great but I’m never going to fly LHR-DTW. If you want BA to fly the route you need to create demand where BA’s customers are — in England. Perhaps the Thames River could be lined with signs saying “Spend your holiday in Detroit” :lol: :lol: :lol:


Nice video but why would a visitor from overseas want to visit Detroit when San Francisco, LA, NYC, Miami...etc are so much more desirable?


I have to disagree I've been to Miami and the sight of people sleeping along the streets was not very impressive. Before you say there is nothing in Detroit and Michigan to see visit here first. It's a common misconception that Detroit is a vast wasteland but that's not the case at all.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
NWADTWE16
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:22 am

im so sick of all the "they have no feed" crap everytime ANY airline is mentioned to/from DTW. These carriers have no feed from tons of other airports so your just HATING on DTW by saying that. It's so obvious you should just own it and quit pretending.

Secondly, most of you are probably 15 or 80 years old, no in between I bet, but just so you know, British Airways served DTW, and for a long time. They did well, and had their own dedicated Cargo warehouse, which did brisk business for the daily 747 to LHR. Pan Am served London as well as a few others at the same time NW did for many years, so competition worked then and would work even better now, since there is hardly any.

To say BA would serve a dying community like CLE before the city in the middle of a Renaissance, DTW, is just , again, hating.

Carryon~
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IPFreely
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sat Oct 19, 2019 3:56 am

NWADTWE16 wrote:
...British Airways served DTW, and for a long time. They did well...


From British Airways' announcement that they were dropping service to DTW:

The aircraft will be used on other, more profitable routes, the airline said. British Airways has operated the route for more than 50 years, but was not able to make a reasonable level of profit and sees no possible upswing, the carrier said.


Doesn't sound like they did all that well to me.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... 8120070919
 
klm617
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:40 pm

IPFreely wrote:
NWADTWE16 wrote:
...British Airways served DTW, and for a long time. They did well...


From British Airways' announcement that they were dropping service to DTW:

The aircraft will be used on other, more profitable routes, the airline said. British Airways has operated the route for more than 50 years, but was not able to make a reasonable level of profit and sees no possible upswing, the carrier said.


Doesn't sound like they did all that well to me.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... 8120070919


Times have changed and it's 10 years later. A comment made 10 years ago is no longer relevant. While I believe that BA adding Detroit is of no value to the Detroit market it still doesn't warrant the negative input about a market that is underserved in some aspects. When your hub carrier show no initiative to grow it's hub in your city that becomes just another image problem for the market giving the impression that it is already well served. But if we are honest that is not the reason at all Delta sit's on the Detroit market and controls it to it's advantage and say nothing at all about the market potential here. Detroit is way below the curve in the current aviation market not because there isn't potential but because of the constant negative perception that people like to spin about Detroit and the fact that Delta doesn't invest resources here doesn't help it's image either.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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chepos
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:43 pm

I think BA will eventually return to DTW, it is a large market that they should be able to make work. DTW/MI is not a tourist MECCA, however, it is a large market that with onward connections ex-LHR seems like a no brainer. I assume that being close to ORD BA figures it can easily route pax via ORD.


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Cubsrule
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:03 pm

IPFreely wrote:
klm617 wrote:
These three are givens and should have happened already. The longer the airport waits to secure these routes the less likely they are to ever happen. It should be all hands on deck to make sure DTW get's these adds sooner rather than later.

DTW-MAN DL
DTW-KEF FI
DTW-DUB EI.


They need to have enough time to mature before the next economic downturn that's why it's so important to lands these routes. Other airports get it I don't understand why DTW keeps dragging it's feet on these additions.


These three are a given? Is this a joke? FI and EI have no feed in DTW and no code share or partner connections beyond DTW. The only pax they would have are people in Iceland and Dublin who want to go to Detroit. In other words, none. For MAN, DL would add JFK, ATL, or MSP before DTW. As far as connections, DTW offers nothing that isn't available from JFK, ATL, and MSP. And for o/d, unlike DTW, there are people in MAN who might want to go to JFK, ATL, or MSP. DTW already punches far above it's weight in TATL routes. They will be lucky to keep what they have.


DTW-MAN probably punches marginally above its weight O&D-wise because MAN is at the geographic center of the UK auto industry. I’m not convinced that’s enough to make a flight worth but can also see why it might make more sense than it first appears.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
Ishrion
Posts: 1200
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:59 pm

NWADTWE16 wrote:

To say BA would serve a dying community like CLE before the city in the middle of a Renaissance, DTW, is just , again, hating.

Carryon~


What about the “dying community” of Charleston, South Carolina?
 
klm617
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sun Oct 20, 2019 12:08 am

Ishrion wrote:
NWADTWE16 wrote:

To say BA would serve a dying community like CLE before the city in the middle of a Renaissance, DTW, is just , again, hating.

Carryon~


What about the “dying community” of Charleston, South Carolina?



CHS is bank rolling that flight and to be honest there are probably less than 50 flights that BA will operate between CHS and LHR.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
johns624
Posts: 2232
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sun Oct 20, 2019 12:23 am

Michigan is more than Detroit. I was just in the Upper Peninsula hiking two weeks ago and was surprised to see many Asians there also hiking. It was the peak color season but it's a whole different world up there. Not everyone is a "city" person. Personally, I'm into hiking. The only major foreign cities I've enjoyed were CPH, EDI and AKL.
 
klm617
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sun Oct 20, 2019 1:02 am

johns624 wrote:
Michigan is more than Detroit. I was just in the Upper Peninsula hiking two weeks ago and was surprised to see many Asians there also hiking. It was the peak color season but it's a whole different world up there. Not everyone is a "city" person. Personally, I'm into hiking. The only major foreign cities I've enjoyed were CPH, EDI and AKL.



Exactly and that traffic should be captured and marketed over Detroit and not Chicago. DTW is closer to most of the tourist spots in Michigan than ORD is and why would you want to fly into that mad house when you can have a stress free arrival and departure out of DTW. I think that a good marketing idea would be "Your hassle free low fare destination in the Midwest" DTW could capture all of OH North Eastern Indiana and Southwest Ontario if it effectively marketed itself as a better option than ORD and YYZ. There is a lot of traffic to capture out of Detroit is you brought in EI and the new WOW.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
johns624
Posts: 2232
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:58 pm

I don't know why BA can't reinstate DTW. After all, the RAF operates to DTW with the A330MRTT. :)
 
kavok
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:36 am

johns624 wrote:
I don't know why BA can't reinstate DTW. After all, the RAF operates to DTW with the A330MRTT. :)


There is an A.net myth that if hypothetically BA added DTW back, that DL would counter by expanding their capacity on LHR-DTW and drive the everyones profits into the ground. Truth is though, that is simply a myth.

First, DL/VS are slot limited as is at LHR, and are not going to drop another profitable flight from LHR-XXX to add a third daily DTW-LHR. LHR slots are too valuable, and frankly even with a BA DTW-LHR to compete with, DL will still make plenty of money on their own DTW-LHR flight.

Second, look what happened when LH launched DTW-MUC.... absolutely nothing (from DL). DL generally doesn’t flinch or play games when someone from the other 2 alliances launches a *A/OW HUB flight from their own hub (even if it is to a DL hub). BA launching DTW would be no different. And to be honest, DL is not going to put up that much of a fight to defend DTW on the international front from OW/*A. DL would much rather spend the money on their new coastal hubs.

Third, I would actually expect DL to drop their seasonal second daily DTW-LHR flight as the result of a BA addition. For DL, DTW-LHR is too profitable for just one flight but not really profitable enough for two DL flights. With BA in the mix, I would expect DL to go to once daily year round (maybe upgauge toa A350) on DTW-LHR, and then move that second flight somewhere else. BA could potentially even increase the DTW-LHR pax numbers (via also serving onward connections from LHR on their flight), making 2 dailies (one on each carrier) year round profitable. Thus both BA and DL would still make plenty of money on their respective DTW-LHR flights, and no love lost.

Maybe I am wrong, and BA is nervous about added DTW and what DL would do. But if so, BAs fears are greatly unfounded.
 
klm617
Posts: 4471
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Mon Oct 21, 2019 10:47 am

kavok wrote:
johns624 wrote:
I don't know why BA can't reinstate DTW. After all, the RAF operates to DTW with the A330MRTT. :)


There is an A.net myth that if hypothetically BA added DTW back, that DL would counter by expanding their capacity on LHR-DTW and drive the everyones profits into the ground. Truth is though, that is simply a myth.

First, DL/VS are slot limited as is at LHR, and are not going to drop another profitable flight from LHR-XXX to add a third daily DTW-LHR. LHR slots are too valuable, and frankly even with a BA DTW-LHR to compete with, DL will still make plenty of money on their own DTW-LHR flight.

Second, look what happened when LH launched DTW-MUC.... absolutely nothing (from DL). DL generally doesn’t flinch or play games when someone from the other 2 alliances launches a *A/OW HUB flight from their own hub (even if it is to a DL hub). BA launching DTW would be no different. And to be honest, DL is not going to put up that much of a fight to defend DTW on the international front from OW/*A. DL would much rather spend the money on their new coastal hubs.

Third, I would actually expect DL to drop their seasonal second daily DTW-LHR flight as the result of a BA addition. For DL, DTW-LHR is too profitable for just one flight but not really profitable enough for two DL flights. With BA in the mix, I would expect DL to go to once daily year round (maybe upgauge toa A350) on DTW-LHR, and then move that second flight somewhere else. BA could potentially even increase the DTW-LHR pax numbers (via also serving onward connections from LHR on their flight), making 2 dailies (one on each carrier) year round profitable. Thus both BA and DL would still make plenty of money on their respective DTW-LHR flights, and no love lost.

Maybe I am wrong, and BA is nervous about added DTW and what DL would do. But if so, BAs fears are greatly unfounded.


I agree 100% Delta for the most part is done in Detroit. It's connecting traffic keeps getting lower and lower compared to their O?D numbers at Detroit. The thing with BA though is that it really would do nothing to stimulate growth at DTW because as you say Delta might just drop to one daily and as you said they did respond to the new LH MUC nonstop they even shortened the season of DTW-MUC they also did nothing when WOW Air was in the Detroit market so I agree I think a Delta reaction to any new service would be minimal. The problem at DTW is the lack of effective marketing as far as potential DTW has a huge draw to pull from as far as a customer base as it is the most convenient airport for miles around. Why not market DTW as the go to airport in the Midwest rather than the busy and over crowded ORD and YYZ airports.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7116
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:10 pm

kavok wrote:
... And to be honest, DL is not going to put up that much of a fight to defend DTW on the international front from OW/*A. DL would much rather spend the money on their new coastal hubs.


DL completely dropping out DTW-LHR is not a bad idea. That will give others a chance.

kavok wrote:
...DL would much rather spend the money on their new coastal hubs.


Delta's JFK-BOM RT is $599 (Source:Indian aviation thread) and BWI-JFK-BOM RT is $634(Source:Slickdeals/SkyScanner). Yes, Delta is printing money on coastal hubs.
 
kavok
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:06 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
kavok wrote:
... And to be honest, DL is not going to put up that much of a fight to defend DTW on the international front from OW/*A. DL would much rather spend the money on their new coastal hubs.


DL completely dropping out DTW-LHR is not a bad idea. That will give others a chance.

kavok wrote:
...DL would much rather spend the money on their new coastal hubs.


Delta's JFK-BOM RT is $599 (Source:Indian aviation thread) and BWI-JFK-BOM RT is $634(Source:Slickdeals/SkyScanner). Yes, Delta is printing money on coastal hubs.


DL is not going to drop out of DTW-LHR completely. There will always be at least one DL flight, as the market there is way too big. In addition to DTW, you also have all the DTW connecting flows (from the Midwest) to also feed that flight. With or without BA, DTW is always going to have at least 1 DL flight to LHR well into the foreseeable future.

Beyond that first flight, DL has also been trying on-again, off-again to get a second daily to work on DTW-LHR. It is that second flight that could be axed should BA ever launch DTW-LHR. In fact, a combo of BA and DL (on an A350) probably provides the best demand to supply ratio on the market. And yes, this does grow the markets some as you’d have two DTW-LHR flights year round.

If DL gets a few more A350s based in DTW, I expect the DL TATL A350 service to expand beyond AMS, and LHR would probably be next. Even without BA, that A350 upgauge alone may allow DL to move that second DTW-LHR to another market. Particularly if some midsize market like IND or CMH is willing to pay for LHR service.

It will be many years before LHR gets the 3rd runway, and DL/VS get new LHR slots. That means for the near term, any new LHR flights will come at the expense of someone else. At some point with DLs new hubs and focus cities, they are going to want to expand LHR beyond just from BOS and JFK. I think that the second DTW flight is a likely target. Should it happen, it would be a good chance for BA to step in and make money filling that gap.
Last edited by kavok on Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7116
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:21 pm

kavok wrote:
DL is not going to drop out of DTW-LHR. There will always be at least one DL flight, as the market there is way too big. In addition to DTW, you also have all the DTW connecting flows (from the Midwest) to also feed that flight. With or without BA, DTW is always going to have at least 1 DL flight to LHR well into the foreseeable future.

Beyond that first flight, DL has also been trying on-again, off-again to get a second daily to work on DTW-LHR. It is that second flight that could be axed should BA ever launch DTW-LHR. In fact, a combo of BA and DL (on an A350) probably provides the best demand to supply ratio on the market.

If DL gets a few more A350s based in DTW, I expect the DL TATL A350 service to expand beyond AMS, and LHR would probably be next. Even without BA, that A350 upgauge alone may allow DL to move that second DTW-LHR to another market. Particularly if some midsize market like IND or CMH is willing to pay for LHR service.


What is the method used to calculate demand for a capacity and price-controlled monopolistic route? DL's on again off again second frequency strategy could be just to keep prices higher.

How many DL's XXX-LHR routes have higher average fares than DTW-LHR?
 
kavok
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:48 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
kavok wrote:
DL is not going to drop out of DTW-LHR. There will always be at least one DL flight, as the market there is way too big. In addition to DTW, you also have all the DTW connecting flows (from the Midwest) to also feed that flight. With or without BA, DTW is always going to have at least 1 DL flight to LHR well into the foreseeable future.

Beyond that first flight, DL has also been trying on-again, off-again to get a second daily to work on DTW-LHR. It is that second flight that could be axed should BA ever launch DTW-LHR. In fact, a combo of BA and DL (on an A350) probably provides the best demand to supply ratio on the market.

If DL gets a few more A350s based in DTW, I expect the DL TATL A350 service to expand beyond AMS, and LHR would probably be next. Even without BA, that A350 upgauge alone may allow DL to move that second DTW-LHR to another market. Particularly if some midsize market like IND or CMH is willing to pay for LHR service.


What is the method used to calculate demand for a capacity and price-controlled monopolistic route? DL's on again off again second frequency strategy could be just to keep prices higher.

How many DL's XXX-LHR routes have higher average fare than DTW-LHR?


Since DL (or any other airline) isn’t sharing their data, it has to be estimated based on the information available and reasonable judgment.

As an example, DL operates DTW-AMS 4x daily. Being that DL is a very profitable company, and that AMS is now slot controlled, it is reasonable to assume that those four flights are making money. Especially since two of the four flights will be upgauged in 2020 compared to 2016. If it didn’t make money, DL would drop it to 3x daily and use the slot elsewhere. And to state the obvious, the reason DTW-AMS works on 4X daily is because both airports are great for flowing connections over. (There is no way DTW-AMS is 4x daily on local OD alone).

Next, if you look at the TATL PDEW from almost any large or midsize airport in the USA, LHR dominates as the #1 destination (by a sizable margin) from almost any airport. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that since DL can flow enough pax for 4x daily on DTW-AMS, that the market is surely large enough for at least 1x daily DTW-LHR given London is the number one TATL destination for US traffic. Arguably, DL might even be able to make DTW-LHR work on connections alone and no Detroit O/D (but I won’t go that far, as that is kind of misleading).

I don’t want to get into a profitability discussion, because the truth is none of us really know and Delta isn’t sharing. But I will say that the stage length between BOS/JFK-LHR is only about 15% shorter than DTW-BOS. And when you look at ticket price differences between what DL charges at DTW vs BOS and NYC... well let’s just say the difference is WELL above 15%. Others can make their own discernment, but it is probably safe to say DL makes decent revenue on that DTW-LHR flight.
Last edited by kavok on Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
IPFreely
Posts: 2427
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:26 am

Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:51 pm

kavok wrote:
DL is not going to drop out of DTW-LHR completely. There will always be at least one DL flight, as the market there is way too big. In addition to DTW, you also have all the DTW connecting flows (from the Midwest) to also feed that flight. With or without BA, DTW is always going to have at least 1 DL flight to LHR well into the foreseeable future.


One flight, no more, no less, is the right number. For o/d traffic Delta can charge a premium for the only nonstop flight. For connecting flows, passengers to the west and north of DTW can connect in MSP. Passengers to the east and south of DTW can connect in ATL (preferred by DL) or JFK. DTW is simply not needed as a connection to LHR in DL’s network.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7116
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Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:14 pm

kavok wrote:
Since DL (or any other airline) isn’t sharing their data, it has to be estimated based on the information available and reasonable judgment.

I don’t want to get into a profitability discussion, because the truth is none of us really know and Delta isn’t sharing. But I will say that the stage length between BOS/JFK-LHR is only about 15% shorter than DTW-BOS. And when you look at ticket price differences between what DL charges at DTW vs BOS and NYC... well let’s just say the difference is WELL above 15%. Others can make their own discernment, but it is probably safe to say DL makes decent revenue on that DTW-LHR flight.


There is no data to support any argument.
DTW average published fares are 15% higher,
Detroiters can connect(even backtrack) through other perpetual sale hubs,

Conclusion: There is no demand for DTW-LHR.

DTW-BOS is the best example of how DL will react to competition. pre-B6 $600+ RT on RJs, with B6, DL matched $180 RT. all A32Xs.

BTW, BA's LAX-LHR 2020 promotional fare is $332 RT.
 
klm617
Posts: 4471
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:27 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
kavok wrote:
... And to be honest, DL is not going to put up that much of a fight to defend DTW on the international front from OW/*A. DL would much rather spend the money on their new coastal hubs.


DL completely dropping out DTW-LHR is not a bad idea. That will give others a chance.

kavok wrote:
...DL would much rather spend the money on their new coastal hubs.


Delta's JFK-BOM RT is $599 (Source:Indian aviation thread) and BWI-JFK-BOM RT is $634(Source:Slickdeals/SkyScanner). Yes, Delta is printing money on coastal hubs.


Isn't that something and they won't start a DTW-MAN flight that tells you where Detroit fits in as far as Delta goes.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
Posts: 4471
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Potential new DTW TATL service for S20

Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:37 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
kavok wrote:
Since DL (or any other airline) isn’t sharing their data, it has to be estimated based on the information available and reasonable judgment.

I don’t want to get into a profitability discussion, because the truth is none of us really know and Delta isn’t sharing. But I will say that the stage length between BOS/JFK-LHR is only about 15% shorter than DTW-BOS. And when you look at ticket price differences between what DL charges at DTW vs BOS and NYC... well let’s just say the difference is WELL above 15%. Others can make their own discernment, but it is probably safe to say DL makes decent revenue on that DTW-LHR flight.


There is no data to support any argument.
DTW average published fares are 15% higher,
Detroiters can connect(even backtrack) through other perpetual sale hubs,

Conclusion: There is no demand for DTW-LHR.

DTW-BOS is the best example of how DL will react to competition. pre-B6 $600+ RT on RJs, with B6, DL matched $180 RT. all A32Xs.

BTW, BA's LAX-LHR 2020 promotional fare is $332 RT.



It's good to know the good people of Southeaster Michigan are able and willing to fund these low fare prices for other markets especially when the Detroit area is so economically challenged like many on a.net would have us believe. The reason we pay more is because Delta through it's research know there is a lot of wealth in the Detroit area to capitalize on and it want's to keep that a secret.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...

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