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PacoMartin
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Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:53 am

I thought it might be interesting to see posts about personal beliefs about the "greatest myths about air industry".

For instance, the number of scheduled passengers boarded by the global airline industry passed 2 billion in 2005, 3 billion in 2013, and 4 billion in 2017 and is expected to pass 4.5 billion by the end of 2019. IATA predicts that the number will pass 8.2 billion by 2037. As everyone knows Airbus gambled billions of dollars on the belief that a very large aircraft would like the A380 would be the most efficient way to move those passengers hub to hub.

While it is true that the Dreamliner created many longer thinner routes that the airlines were able to bypass hubs, the biggest myth (in my mind) that is perpetuated is that the Dreamliner killed the A380. In my personal opinion, the longer thinner routes that the Dreamliner created served just a small percentage of those additional billions of air passengers. I doubt that there are over half a billion passengers carried by all the Dreamliners, and only a small percentage of those are on newly created routes that would not be possible without the Dreamliner.

What killed the A380, IMHO, was the massive upgrade to the airport system in Asia that allowed it to purchase thousands of single-aisle jets. More than two decades ago East Asia was highly reliant on B747s, even for many routes under 3000nm. Airbus expected this trend to continue and possibly accelerate with A380 sales. Instead, Airbus only sold 8 A380s to these four critical countries which was anticipated to be a major market for A380s.
B747 deliveries
180 Japan
41 China
67 Taiwan
59 Hong Kong
347

Once the new airports were built with the runways to handle the thousands of single-aisle jets, the Boeing jets that were used on longer-range routes was more the B777 instead of the B787.

B777 orders
131 Japan
99 China
31 Taiwan
87 Hong Kong
348

B787 orders
132 Japan
79 China
18 Taiwan
0 Hong Kong
229
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:20 am

We could go through some of the greatest hits of A.net:

  • Airlines plan new routes by the number of people in a city-proper
  • A "monopoly" is when that an airline I don't like, has the majority of ops at a given airfield
  • J/Vs unequivocally raise prices and limit competition, solely based on the fact that the number of airlines within a region decreases
  • The largest business centers produce the most profitable flights for a given airline
  • The majority of passengers choose a route by seat style and/or aircraft type; or even have a blessed clue about what either even are
  • "Comfort" is determined by aircraft dimensions, and not airline-chosen configuration
  • Advertised fares are indicative of operational yield



.......................and of course the unchallenged all-time heavyweight champ of them all:

  • A full flight = a profitable flight
Last edited by LAX772LR on Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Blerg
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:22 am

Most popular myth is the one where people believe low cost means low fare.
 
BTV290
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:25 am

LAX772LR wrote:
We could go through some of the greatest hits of A.net:

  • Airlines plan new routes by the number of people in a city-proper
  • A "monopoly" is when that an airline I don't like, has the majority of ops at a given airfield
  • J/Vs unequivocally raise prices and limit competition, solely based on the fact that the number of airlines within a region decreases
  • The largest business centers produce the most profitable flights for a given airline
  • The majority of passengers choose a route by seat style and/or aircraft type; or even have a blessed clue about what either even are
  • "Comfort" is determined by aircraft dimensions, and not airline-chosen configuration
  • Advertised fares are indicative of operational yield



.......................and of course the unchallenged all-time heavyweight champ of them all:

  • A full flight = a profitable flight


This. All of this.
 
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nighthawk
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:38 am

The most popular myth? That its a good investment.
 
KFTG
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:49 am

New planes necessarily = safer planes.
 
Ziyulu
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 9:56 am

No seat assignment = more likely to get kicked off
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:00 am

As an addendum to the previous post there were also 392 A330s delivered to the four countries/regions in question.

LAX772LR wrote:
.......................and of course the unchallenged all-time heavyweight champ of them all:
A full flight = a profitable flight


That is a very interesting comment. I suppose I could see it going either way as the airline fills the plane with fares that are too low.

But I would think that information is highly confidential, and I don't know how you would find out if jets with over 90% load factors made money.
Last edited by PacoMartin on Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
uta999
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:06 am

The 757 will be built again
If you take the wings off a 707, you can use it as a tank
The MAX is just like an NG
One of the flight crew must have the fish
The 747-8i and the A380 were really good ideas, on paper
Your computer just got better
 
Pampot70
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:13 am

If Airline X orders 200 planes today, it will receive all of them tomorrow and consequently their load factor will plunge near zero.
 
klm617
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:15 am

That the 737 MAX is unsafe.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
RalXWB
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:24 am

Airbus is only selling planes because it is giving them away for free.
The A350 has no range.
The A321 is only trying to catch up to the 739 and 7310.
:stirthepot: :stirthepot: :stirthepot:
 
tu204
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:26 am

klm617 wrote:
That the 737 MAX is unsafe.


*Caugh* what?

At this moment in time, this is in no way a myth...
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
stratosphere
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:33 am

Direct flight = Non stop ...Uh no it is not
 
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CPHFF
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:39 am

- Any Airline ordering the A220 are planing to fly to/from LCY
If it weren't for UAW, Detroit would shine!
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:40 am

uta999 wrote:
The 747-8i and the A380 were really good ideas, on paper


What I have always heard was that the A380 launched in 2000 when world air passengers were under 2 billion and before 9/11 and the plateau in the number of world passengers from 2007 to 2009. Had it launched a decade earlier in 2010 it would have been a success (2010 saw a 9% jump in passengers from 2009).
 
dmstorm22
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:43 am

LAX772LR wrote:
We could go through some of the greatest hits of A.net:

  • Airlines plan new routes by the number of people in a city-proper
  • A "monopoly" is when that an airline I don't like, has the majority of ops at a given airfield
  • J/Vs unequivocally raise prices and limit competition, solely based on the fact that the number of airlines within a region decreases
  • The largest business centers produce the most profitable flights for a given airline
  • The majority of passengers choose a route by seat style and/or aircraft type; or even have a blessed clue about what either even are
  • "Comfort" is determined by aircraft dimensions, and not airline-chosen configuration
  • Advertised fares are indicative of operational yield



.......................and of course the unchallenged all-time heavyweight champ of them all:

  • A full flight = a profitable flight


Surprised you forgot one of the greats: Airline [X] only buys from Airbus/Boeing. The amount of people who think Delta will never buy another Boeing widebody is ludicrous.

Also wanted to question one of the ones you mention - around majority of passengers having no clue what aircraft they are flying on.

While I think this is largely true, I also think we sometimes go too far in thinking the random traveler has no clue. People may know the difference between 3-3-3 and 3-4-3 - though likely won't look it up beforehand. A lot of even casual travelers can recognize a 747 or A380. Let's give people some credit.

Anyway, a few others:

* The key metric for starting a new flight should be the size of the respective cities instead of looking at demand between the two
* VFR travelers are useless when determining if a route should be started (as in, some VFR will actually pay quite a bit and be fairly high yield)
* Aircraft age = Quality of Interior and Experience
 
jcwr56
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 10:45 am

DTW is not the center of the Airline Universe. (a.net humor)
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:36 am

LAX772LR wrote:
We could go through some of the greatest hits of A.net:

  • Airlines plan new routes by the number of people in a city-proper
  • A "monopoly" is when that an airline I don't like, has the majority of ops at a given airfield
  • J/Vs unequivocally raise prices and limit competition, solely based on the fact that the number of airlines within a region decreases
  • The largest business centers produce the most profitable flights for a given airline
  • The majority of passengers choose a route by seat style and/or aircraft type; or even have a blessed clue about what either even are
  • "Comfort" is determined by aircraft dimensions, and not airline-chosen configuration
  • Advertised fares are indicative of operational yield



.......................and of course the unchallenged all-time heavyweight champ of them all:

  • A full flight = a profitable flight


Well done, sir. To this I might add:

    The plane was full when I flew that route once or twice so I can infer it's full all of the time.
    The lowest available price at a single point in time is indicative of average fares for the entire aircraft.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:06 pm

1) The A220 was designed exclusively/mostly/solely for LCY-JFK
2) The 757 is THE BEST aircraft ever made, bar none
3) Passengers care about aircraft type, and NOT about price
4) Passenger Comfort is solely based on the number of seats across a fuselage
5) short-haul wide body is sexy
6) long-haul narrow body is even sexier
7) any US city can print a wish list of desired destinations and eventually get these
8) the US is the centre of the universe, and any global law/guidance is written by the FAA
9) Airbus aircrafts are not sold at a profit
10) The A340 is severely underpowered and lifts off thanks to the curvature of the planet
11) Delta is an inherently good airline, made of solid, reliable good people
12) AA and UA are inherently bad, and those working for them are generally evil
 
SkyVoice
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:21 pm

Chemtrail conspiracy theories!
"Your talents may take you where your character can not keep you." - Terry Nelson
 
airbazar
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:31 pm

Business passengers prefer red-eyes.
 
2175301
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 1:34 pm

That the real experts on all matters aviation related are the posters on A-net....

Opps... That's not a myth.
 
IPFreely
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 4:23 pm

Flying across the Atlantic on a plane with only one aisle is a form of torture.
 
IPFreely
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 4:29 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Well done, sir. To this I might add:

    The plane was full when I flew that route once or twice so I can infer it's full all of the time.
    The lowest available price at a single point in time is indicative of average fares for the entire aircraft.


Don’t forget the corollary:

“I took that flight 9 months ago for $200 and it was half empty. That means it’s always half empty and everyone pays the same fare, so it’s unprofitable. But the airline keeps it because corporations have big egos.”
 
klm617
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 4:45 pm

That certain airlines are run better because of the massive profits they rake in when in fact it because of the lack of competition and capacity that through consolidation that allows them to do so.

That there is enough competition out there because all the major markets have a lot of options and low airfares when most of the US market has less or no completion than it had 5 to 10 years ago.


That airfares are cheaper now than they were in the early 80's when calculated by the rate of inflation.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
B747forever
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 4:56 pm

LAX772LR wrote:

.......................and of course the unchallenged all-time heavyweight champ of them all:

  • A full flight = a profitable flight


Anyone still believing this should just take a look at Norwegian's financial reports. They run high LFs at about 85-90% yet lose money like there is no tomorrow.
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
Yflyer
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 5:25 pm

Are we talking about myths among the general public, or myths among a.netters? The responses seem to be a mix of both.

One I hear from the general public a lot: Airlines regularly cancel flights because they're not full.
 
Canuck600
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:15 pm

Routes are flown for "prestige" only
 
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hic787
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:52 pm

#1 - Airline seats absorb any and all flatulence
 
harleydriver
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:35 pm

A-netters know what's best for the airlines. I'm talking to you, Cape Air, for buying an airplane that isn't turbine powered and not retractable gear. Did you even think of asking us what we think???
Department of Redundancy Department
 
DFW17L
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:57 pm

Anyone can land a jetliner...you just need a little help from Captain Rex Kramer.
 
AtomicGarden
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Fri Sep 27, 2019 1:23 am

I hate listening to fellow coworkers say "all airlines lose money" as a way to justify bad management and bleeding cash.
You killed a black astronaut, Cyril! That's like killing a unicorn!
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Fri Sep 27, 2019 5:29 am

dmstorm22 wrote:
Also wanted to question one of the ones you mention - around majority of passengers having no clue what aircraft they are flying on.

While I think this is largely true, I also think we sometimes go too far in thinking the random traveler has no clue. People may know the difference between 3-3-3 and 3-4-3 - though likely won't look it up beforehand. A lot of even casual travelers can recognize a 747 or A380. Let's give people some credit.

......that's why the word "majority" was used, instead of the word "all."
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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afterburner
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Fri Sep 27, 2019 7:34 am

Canuck600 wrote:
Routes are flown for "prestige" only

It's true for certain routes of some airlines from some third world countries.
 
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keesje
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:44 pm

WB at NB costs, 2025.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Fri Sep 27, 2019 4:14 pm

Cargo airlines don’t fly their airplanes so fuel burn doesn’t matter
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
bohica
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Fri Sep 27, 2019 4:20 pm

Northwest DC-9's will fly forever.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:13 pm

That aviation is a "professional" business that is under close scrutiny by aviation authorities, so everything is safe. Might be true for some of the big names and countries, like Swiss and FOCA or Lufthansa and LBA, but reality is that oversight is way too lapse and based almost entirely on trust - trust that is misused constantly in the name of saving money.

Also, the management at second tier airlines is way too often filled with amateurs who can't or won't do their jobs properly, petty infighting, spending €1000 to save €10 etc. I've heard of similar stuff at some major airlines too.
 
DeltaConnection
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:25 pm

klm617 wrote:

That airfares are cheaper now than they were in the early 80's when calculated by the rate of inflation.


This.
 
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chepos
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:28 am

Something we see around here every couple of weeks,

AA will dehub PHX in 6 months.



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Fly the Flag!!!!
 
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chepos
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:41 am

oldannyboy wrote:
1) The A220 was designed exclusively/mostly/solely for LCY-JFK
2) The 757 is THE BEST aircraft ever made, bar none
3) Passengers care about aircraft type, and NOT about price
4) Passenger Comfort is solely based on the number of seats across a fuselage
5) short-haul wide body is sexy
6) long-haul narrow body is even sexier
7) any US city can print a wish list of desired destinations and eventually get these
8) the US is the centre of the universe, and any global law/guidance is written by the FAA
9) Airbus aircrafts are not sold at a profit
10) The A340 is severely underpowered and lifts off thanks to the curvature of the planet
11) Delta is an inherently good airline, made of solid, reliable good people
12) AA and UA are inherently bad, and those working for them are generally evil


You won the internet, numbers 11-12 are representative of I would guestimate 70% of Aneters thinking


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TheFlyingDisk
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:09 am

PacoMartin wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
.......................and of course the unchallenged all-time heavyweight champ of them all:
A full flight = a profitable flight


That is a very interesting comment. I suppose I could see it going either way as the airline fills the plane with fares that are too low.

But I would think that information is highly confidential, and I don't know how you would find out if jets with over 90% load factors made money.


I would think you can do a guestimate of this if you have the RASK (revenue per available seat kilometre) and CASK (cost per available seat kilometer) numbers. Some airlines do report them.
I FLY KLM+ALASKA+QATAR+MALAYSIA+AIRASIA+MALINDO
 
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afterburner
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:32 pm

chepos wrote:
You won the internet, numbers 11-12 are representative of I would guestimate 70% of Aneters thinking

How many percent of A.netters are American?
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Sat Sep 28, 2019 3:28 pm

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
.......................and of course the unchallenged all-time heavyweight champ of them all:
A full flight = a profitable flight

That is a very interesting comment. I suppose I could see it going either way as the airline fills the plane with fares that are too low.

But I would think that information is highly confidential, and I don't know how you would find out if jets with over 90% load factors made money.


I would think you can do a guestimate of this if you have the RASK (revenue per available seat kilometre) and CASK (cost per available seat kilometer) numbers. Some airlines do report them.

Systemwide, possibly; per route, no.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Austin787
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Sat Sep 28, 2019 8:07 pm

1) US based airlines are disrespecting their home country by buying Airbus airplanes
2) United drags passengers off its planes
3) Aircraft width is the only factor that determines passenger comfort
4) Flying a narrow body on a TATL route is pure torture
5) The flight was full every time I take it, so it is profitable and important to the airline
6) Airfares are lower now compared to the 1980s when adjusted for inflation
7) AA considers JFK an important airport in its network
8) EWR is not a valid airport to use when flying to/from NYC
9) I had a bad experience on airline XYZ, so they are the worst and everyone should avoid them.
10) I should get upgraded every time I fly because I have elite status
11) Delta is a bad airline because I don't like their frequent flier program
12) Boeing made a big mistake in ending 757 production
13) English is the first/primary language for all a.netters
14) The tech industry is doing well now so AA (or some other airline) should set up a hub at SJC
15) The 717 (MD95) was selling well until Boeing decided to end it after the McDonald Douglass merger
16) Southwest has a bad strategy because they don't charge change fees or checked baggage fees
 
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rjsampson
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Mon Sep 30, 2019 12:12 am

Air Traffic Controllers sometimes pick the wrong week to stop Sniffing Glue, when under pressure.
"..your eyes will be forever turned skyward, for there.." yeah we know the DaVinci quote. But GA is so dang expensive these days! :(
 
Chemist
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:26 am

Airbus is cancelling the A380 too early, if they wait long enough, demand will catch up and it will become a market success.
 
seat1a
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Mon Sep 30, 2019 11:12 pm

Braniff and Eastern will make a comeback.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Greatest myths about air industry

Mon Sep 30, 2019 11:54 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
That is a very interesting comment. I suppose I could see it going either way as the airline fills the plane with fares that are too low.

But I would think that information is highly confidential, and I don't know how you would find out if jets with over 90% load factors made money.


I would think you can do a guestimate of this if you have the RASK (revenue per available seat kilometre) and CASK (cost per available seat kilometer) numbers. Some airlines do report them.

Systemwide, possibly; per route, no.


US Domestic Yield for all flights can be found in the link below, combine this data with the T100 report and you can get RASM (RASK) for domestic US flights
https://www.transtats.bts.gov/Tables.as ... n%20Survey
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