Aidenboss7
Topic Author
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What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:27 pm

After the Fall of Thomas cook, what will fall next
 
ExpatVet
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Thu Oct 10, 2019 9:44 am

They will go out of business because they don't have the money to continue operations.
L101, 733/4/5/8, 741/2/3 (never managed 744!), MD 80/2/3/8/90, MD11, DHC8/3/Q4, E170, E195, 757, 77W, 763/4, Travel Air 2000. A300/310, A319/320/321, A333, ATR-72, probably a few others I forget. Passenger, not pilot, alas! BUD based.
 
lalib
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sun Oct 13, 2019 9:04 am

Thai airways maybe
 
737tanker
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sun Oct 13, 2019 11:29 am

Southwest because the MAXs are still grounded and the NGs will probably be grounded due to the cracks being found in the “Pickle Forks”
 
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FlyRow
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sun Oct 13, 2019 5:33 pm

I wonder about TUI Europe (different airlines, same problem), MAX groundings really hurting then, and the margins on holiday package flights where really thin already.
F70-F100-RJ85-RJ70-E190-319-320-321-733-734-735-737-738-752-753-763-764-772-744-380
 
FriscoHeavy
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sun Oct 13, 2019 7:30 pm

737tanker wrote:
Southwest because the MAXs are still grounded and the NGs will probably be grounded due to the cracks being found in the “Pickle Forks”


That’s a joke, right?
Whatever
 
ei146
Posts: 274
Joined: Sat Jan 09, 2010 9:54 pm

Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Mon Oct 14, 2019 6:34 am

If I knew I'd be reach already and not waste my time reading aviation forums.
 
Blerg
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Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Fri Oct 18, 2019 11:43 am

Adria Airways went bankrupt a while ago. I think Croatia Airlines will go bust in the next year or two.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Fri Oct 18, 2019 11:51 am

Here are my predictions for India

For political and financial reasons
Air India(in 2020). No one will buy even with just $1.4 billion debt and the government insists on claiming to achieve a disinvestment goal of $8B thru shutdown.

For political reasons
Indigo(prior to 2024). Reasons: Infighting and powers of the country seem to be working against them.
If Indigo survives SpiceJet will go down after 2024. Reasons: Its balance sheet is balanced on a heavy tax write-offs. Without political support, it will go belly up.

For financial reasons
Vistara is loss-making, already has debt, and the induction of widebodies could go really wrong in India and follow Jet Airways path. I hope they tread the debt waters carefully.
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:17 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Here are my predictions for India

For political and financial reasons
Air India(in 2020). No one will buy even with just $1.4 billion debt and the government insists on claiming to achieve a disinvestment goal of $8B thru shutdown.

For political reasons
Indigo(prior to 2024). Reasons: Infighting and powers of the country seem to be working against them.
If Indigo survives SpiceJet will go down after 2024. Reasons: Its balance sheet is balanced on a heavy tax write-offs. Without political support, it will go belly up.

For financial reasons
Vistara is loss-making, already has debt, and the induction of widebodies could go really wrong in India and follow Jet Airways path. I hope they tread the debt waters carefully.


My money is actually on GoAir to go bust before anyone else.
Vahroone
 
J343
Posts: 277
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:15 pm

Malaysia Airlines (I hope not despite putting me through hell, they have a decent onboard product)

Garuda Indonesia - Couldn't make their mind up about Europe. Too many B77Ws.

Philippine Airlines - FSC? LCC? Hybrid? Who knows?? Competing with ME3, CX, SQ for PH-Europe market but I just don't see their potential.
 
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chepos
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:32 pm

These threads make me wonder, do we enjoy seeing airlines grounded and people out of jobs?


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Fly the Flag!!!!
 
leftcoast8
Posts: 182
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:24 pm

My money is on Thai Airways and Malaysia Airlines, given how much government meddling there has been in each.
 
Turnhouse1
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:45 am

Thomas Cook's problem was largely debt from mergers 10 years ago rather than operational losses. So looking for airlines with high debt loading which might be difficult to refinance is likely to be a good indicator, though massive operational losses aren't a good sign either. TUI and Jet2 are probably some of the more solid airlines now, as I don't believe they are over leveraged and the removal of a competitor will improve their margins, both are indeed looking at expansion to fill the gaps left by TCX.
 
leghorn
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:19 pm

Aurigny has the confidence of the Guernsey government but ch-aviation doesn't paint a rosy picture.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/83536
 
klm617
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 11:07 pm

chepos wrote:
These threads make me wonder, do we enjoy seeing airlines grounded and people out of jobs?


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I think there are a lot of airline types on this forum who get great joy out of failures that allow their beloved airlines to get stronger and more powerful. I know they is great joy on this forum with the collapse of WOW Air but WOW Air did a lot for the market that is way over controlled by the megacarriers. It's just a shame because if it were not for the need for WOW to be in every major market it would still be alive and well today.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
bananaboy
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:39 am

FlyRow wrote:
I wonder about TUI Europe (different airlines, same problem), MAX groundings really hurting then, and the margins on holiday package flights where really thin already.


Tui aren't going anywhere soon. They made a decent (albeit reduced) profit in Q3 and in many ways are a very different business to Thomas Cook as they keep much more business in house with greater interests in hotels and cruise. They sell a lot through their retail estate and are years ahead in terms of online distribution compared to where Thomas Cook were. They may have some challenges ahead but IMHO they're much more able and nimble to navigate through.

Mark
All my life, I've been kissing, your top lip 'cause your bottom one's missing
 
Max Q
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:15 am

Has to be Norwegian
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.
 
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3BNBE
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:22 am

Maybe South African Airways which has huge amounts of debts and can't survive without constant government aid.
The recent strikes have rendered it even more vulnerable, and there are various doubts for the future.
Even its CEO was thinking of giving up at some point.
 
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passengerpigeon
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 1:41 am

Max Q wrote:
Has to be Norwegian

For what reasons? They seem to be getting more cautious with fleet expansion, and I'm sure they would have gone under by now if people were only willing to fly them on their initial loss-leader introductory fares considering the length of time they've been doing long-haul.
chepos wrote:
These threads make me wonder, do we enjoy seeing airlines grounded and people out of jobs?

Not in principle, no, but I enjoy seeing a bit of drama in an otherwise very boring period in aviation. It's interesting seeing how carriers fill in the gaps, and what happens with the airline's former fleet.
 
mrgrtt123
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 2:16 am

A few months ago I heard and read some articles about the financial problem of Norwegian Air.
 
juliuswong
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:10 am

Update for airlines which went bust this year (Not an exhaustive list).
- Germania (Germany)
- California Pacific (US)
- Flybmi (UK)
- Insel Air (Curaçao)
- Asian Express Airline (Tajikistan)
- WOW (Iceland)
- Aerolíneas de Antioquía (Colombia)
- Fly Jamaica Airways (Jamaica)
- Air Philip (South Korea)
- Jet Airways (India)
- Wisdom Airways (Thailand)
- Avianca Brasil
- Avianca Argentina
- Al Naser Wings Airlines (Iraq)
- Aigle Azur (France)
- XL Airways (France)
- Thomas Cook (UK)
- Adria (Slovenia)
- Peruvian Airlines (Peru)
- New Gen Airways (Thailand)
- Via Airlines (US)
- TAM Bolivia
- Taron Avia (Armenia)
- Astra (Greece)
- FAT Far Eastern Air Transport (Taiwan)

https://allplane.tv/blog/2019/2/11/airl ... st-is-open
- Life is a journey, travel it well -
 
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SQ789
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:13 pm

Aidenboss7 wrote:
After the Fall of Thomas cook, what will fall next

Jettime and most smaller European Airlines will fall next.
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!

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