blacksoviet
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Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 1:55 am

The A350-1000 is too small. The A380 has too many engines. Shouldn’t the best solution be a trijet?

Airbus needs a clean sheet design to replace the A380 and the A340-600.

In twenty years there are going to be many 747-400s, 747-8s and A380s needing to be replaced.
 
johns624
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:15 am

Nobody will ever build a tri-jet. The 3510 is not too small. The 380 is too big and the 346 hasn't been built in awhile. 747s in passenger service will be gone well before 20 years. They will be replaced by a combination of 787/350/777. Same with the 380.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:28 am

Not a chance. A new quad is very, very unlikely and more likely than a tri-motor. If you want to fly a trijet, buy a Falcon or two.

GF
 
jetblueguy22
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:39 am

-If anything the A350-1000 is probably in the sweet spot for seating.
-They don't need an A380 replacement because they couldn't sell them while they had the chance.
-The 747s that will need replacement in 20 years will be cargo....not passenger. Will be plenty of 777s that can take that role now that they're starting to figure out the P2F process....

Three holers just add complexity that just isn't needed anymore. Twins have the thrust that eliminate the need for a third engine, and if you're REALLY concerned about only having two.....you're probably not even in an aircraft buying role anyways...so it doesn't matter. The data speaks for itself.

Operationally trijets are a pain in the ass.
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
blacksoviet
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 7:20 am

If China continues to grow rich and powerful over the next 25 years, the 777-9 may prove to be too small.

A twin jet will be too small to replace the Air China 748s. I don’t think engines will ever be powerful enough for a 500 seat twin.
 
johns624
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 1:04 pm

blacksoviet wrote:

A twin jet will be too small to replace the Air China 748s.

So someone should develop an all new aircraft to replace a mere handful of planes? Wouldn't it be cheaper to just increase frequency, if needed?
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:38 pm

blacksoviet wrote:
I don’t think engines will ever be powerful enough for a 500 seat twin.


Think again.

The 777-300 can seat up to 396 passengers, and those engines still have spare capacity left. They could push an even bigger plane into the air if needed. Besides, engine development will continue and will lead to more powerful engines. For sure a 500 seat twin is possible and if the demand is there, it will be built.

However for now the 747 and A380 have proven to be too big, the demand just isn't there. Airlines rather put two smaller aircraft on a route than one big one in order to offer more frequency.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 2:54 pm

Not so much too big as too expensive to operate and too inflexible.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 3:19 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
I don’t think engines will ever be powerful enough for a 500 seat twin.


Think again.

The 777-300 can seat up to 396 passengers, and those engines still have spare capacity left. They could push an even bigger plane into the air if needed. Besides, engine development will continue and will lead to more powerful engines. For sure a 500 seat twin is possible and if the demand is there, it will be built.


Nope. It must live up to satisfactory performance requirements if an engine fails at takeoff. The 777-300ER has plenty of thrust when all things work, but single engine it will be a dog, performing as poorly as a 3-engined A340 at MTOM.
 
blacksoviet
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:53 pm

VSMUT wrote:
PatrickZ80 wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
I don’t think engines will ever be powerful enough for a 500 seat twin.


Think again.

The 777-300 can seat up to 396 passengers, and those engines still have spare capacity left. They could push an even bigger plane into the air if needed. Besides, engine development will continue and will lead to more powerful engines. For sure a 500 seat twin is possible and if the demand is there, it will be built.


Nope. It must live up to satisfactory performance requirements if an engine fails at takeoff. The 777-300ER has plenty of thrust when all things work, but single engine it will be a dog, performing as poorly as a 3-engined A340 at MTOM.


Right. This is why I envision a future trijet VLA.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 6:04 pm

Any transport category plane on a WAT-limited take-off, regardless of number of engines installed, is gonna be a “dog”. It’s in the nature of the certification standard. A trijet won’t change that unless you can tell the difference between 2.4% and 2.7% gradients.

GF
 
FGITD
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Sun Nov 24, 2019 9:15 pm

VSMUT wrote:

Nope. It must live up to satisfactory performance requirements if an engine fails at takeoff. The 777-300ER has plenty of thrust when all things work, but single engine it will be a dog, performing as poorly as a 3-engined A340 at MTOM.



It's been more than 20 years and more than 1500 777s of various types delivered. Just how many times have there been engine failures on takeoff. You don't design airplanes around exceptionally rare, specific possible emergencies.

Furthermore there already are considerations of the 77w operating with almost 500 seats.

There aren't too many broad statements that can be made in aviation when it comes to the future. But it's very safe to say that short of a massive redesign that would revolutionize aviation itself, no more major trijets will be built
 
VSMUT
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 2:50 am

FGITD wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

Nope. It must live up to satisfactory performance requirements if an engine fails at takeoff. The 777-300ER has plenty of thrust when all things work, but single engine it will be a dog, performing as poorly as a 3-engined A340 at MTOM.



It's been more than 20 years and more than 1500 777s of various types delivered. Just how many times have there been engine failures on takeoff. You don't design airplanes around exceptionally rare, specific possible emergencies.


Actually yes you do. It is a regulatory requirement for all airliners, as well as an operational requirement that airlines and pilots must live up to.

And it is not only a matter of having enough power to continue single engine, but also a matter of having enough controllability to continue in a roughly straight path with one engine running at maximum thrust and the other acting as a speed brake.
 
FGITD
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 3:46 am

VSMUT wrote:

Actually yes you do. It is a regulatory requirement for all airliners, as well as an operational requirement that airlines and pilots must live up to.

And it is not only a matter of having enough power to continue single engine, but also a matter of having enough controllability to continue in a roughly straight path with one engine running at maximum thrust and the other acting as a speed brake.


No, you don't. You prepare for it and design the aircraft to handle it, but you don't design entire aircraft around a single possible type of emergency. If that was the case, we'd be on here asking which carrier will be the first to remove the 3rd engine. I don't think I really need to cite any sources beyond the fact that there are thousands of twin engine aircraft flying around and aviation is safer than ever. Despite this apparent major risk, and frequent occurrence of losing an engine while rotating at mtow.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 4:27 am

FGITD wrote:
I don't think I really need to cite any sources beyond the fact that there are thousands of twin engine aircraft flying around and aviation is safer than ever. Despite this apparent major risk, and frequent occurrence of losing an engine while rotating at mtow.


And they are all flying safely because of said demands, not in spite...

https://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Eng ... t_Aircraft
 
FGITD
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 4:58 am

VSMUT wrote:
FGITD wrote:
I don't think I really need to cite any sources beyond the fact that there are thousands of twin engine aircraft flying around and aviation is safer than ever. Despite this apparent major risk, and frequent occurrence of losing an engine while rotating at mtow.


And they are all flying safely because of said demands, not in spite...

https://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Eng ... t_Aircraft



And to revisit the original topic, despite the stringent regulations and excellent safety record, there are no trijets in production or in widespread commercial service. And no manufacturer has any intention of making anymore.

So again...why would anyone build a trijet in the modern era?
 
PlymSpotter
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 6:00 am

They will almost certainly build a tri-engined aircraft at some point in the future. And it will not be a jet, but electric or hybrid.
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
VSMUT
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 6:09 am

FGITD wrote:
And to revisit the original topic, despite the stringent regulations and excellent safety record, there are no trijets in production or in widespread commercial service. And no manufacturer has any intention of making anymore.

So again...why would anyone build a trijet in the modern era?


Trijets are not the way forward. Too much structure around the tail section etc. It is inefficient weight wise. Quads are more efficient and simple if you reach into the size where twins are no longer viable.

blacksoviet wrote:
In twenty years there are going to be many 747-400s, 747-8s and A380s needing to be replaced.


No there aren't. There are only 78 passenger 747-400s left, all but 36 of those already have a designated replacement and will be retired before 2024. There are just 36 passenger 747-8i in service and 240 A380. You are talking a combined market for just 312 planes, a significant amount of which belong to cheapo airlines that will only buy second hand, or to airlines that are just fine downgrading to smaller jets.
 
blacksoviet
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 7:10 am

The technology simply does not exist for a four-class, 400 seat, long-haul twin jet. Unless engine technology improves significantly in the next twenty years, a new quad will have to be developed, since trijets carry too much weight in the tail section.

Airlines do not want to increase frequency, as this will end up costing more in the long run. It is always more efficient to fly a larger plane on fewer flights, even if that plane has more engines.
 
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lugie
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 11:25 am

blacksoviet wrote:
The technology simply does not exist for a four-class, 400 seat, long-haul twin jet. Unless engine technology improves significantly in the next twenty years, a new quad will have to be developed, since trijets carry too much weight in the tail section.

Airlines do not want to increase frequency, as this will end up costing more in the long run. It is always more efficient to fly a larger plane on fewer flights, even if that plane has more engines.


I'm tempted to say that is simply an untrue statement.

Air Canada for example operates a 77W (long-haul twin jet) in a 450 seat 3-class configuration (C28W24Y398) with a true premium economy and a 1-2-1 business class. If they wanted to, they could already turn that into a 4-class configuration and remain above 400 seats.

And at the very least by the time the 777-9 is introduced, 4-class 400 seater twins will be an easy to achieve reality.
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 3:08 pm

Or, go for frequency and schedule 2 787s on the route. Especially premium traffic, but most travelers like options for flight times. If an airline can attract the revenue, the expense of two flights is easily overcome.

GF
 
asr0dzjq
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 6:00 pm

As much as I would like it to happen, it won't. The probability of that happening is not just extremely low, but exactly zero now that we have ETOPS.
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blacksoviet
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 6:41 pm

lugie wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
The technology simply does not exist for a four-class, 400 seat, long-haul twin jet. Unless engine technology improves significantly in the next twenty years, a new quad will have to be developed, since trijets carry too much weight in the tail section.

Airlines do not want to increase frequency, as this will end up costing more in the long run. It is always more efficient to fly a larger plane on fewer flights, even if that plane has more engines.


I'm tempted to say that is simply an untrue statement.

Air Canada for example operates a 77W (long-haul twin jet) in a 450 seat 3-class configuration (C28W24Y398) with a true premium economy and a 1-2-1 business class. If they wanted to, they could already turn that into a 4-class configuration and remain above 400 seats.

And at the very least by the time the 777-9 is introduced, 4-class 400 seater twins will be an easy to achieve reality.
The only way Air Canada can get away with that is by going ten abreast in Y. The 77W was designed for nine abreast.
 
johns624
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 6:57 pm

blacksoviet wrote:
The only way Air Canada can get away with that is by going ten abreast in Y. The 77W was designed for nine abreast.
It was designed for whatever seat width passengers were willing to pay for. Face it, you started off with an off-the-wall OP and since nobody agrees with you, you're trying to say they're wrong instead of admitting that you are.
 
blacksoviet
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 11:41 pm

johns624 wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
The only way Air Canada can get away with that is by going ten abreast in Y. The 77W was designed for nine abreast.
It was designed for whatever seat width passengers were willing to pay for. Face it, you started off with an off-the-wall OP and since nobody agrees with you, you're trying to say they're wrong instead of admitting that you are.

I think that one day, some airlines will demand a plane larger than the 777-9. The question is whether or not a twin that large can be built?
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Mon Nov 25, 2019 11:44 pm

That day is, at least, 30 years away. And by then, twins will easily meet their requirements.
 
FGITD
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:07 am

blacksoviet wrote:
johns624 wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
The only way Air Canada can get away with that is by going ten abreast in Y. The 77W was designed for nine abreast.
It was designed for whatever seat width passengers were willing to pay for. Face it, you started off with an off-the-wall OP and since nobody agrees with you, you're trying to say they're wrong instead of admitting that you are.

I think that one day, some airlines will demand a plane larger than the 777-9. The question is whether or not a twin that large can be built?


Yes, and it will be called the 777-10x. Currently no takers, but it is a possible stretch of the-9.
 
FGITD
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 12:07 am

Double post
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Thu Nov 28, 2019 5:53 pm

This vlog speculates about an A350 trijet -- possibly around 2035...towards the end (2:59) of the video..... :biggrin: .....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drndFjfcwFQ
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
Insertnamehere
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Re: Will Airbus ever build a trijet?

Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:36 am

Anything larger than an a350-1000 you can just add another frequency, BA's A350 seats more than most of their 744 configurations minus their Y243 config which the 744 seats only 14 more. The VLA market will be taken over by the large twins. Would I love to see a big future of these aircraft like the 748 or A380? Of course. But the market just is not there and when the economy takes a down swing it will be hard to fill up and will be huge wastes in operating expenses and debt when you can't fill them up versus a larger twin which you can remove a frequency to make a route profitable.

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