jetsetterusa
Topic Author
Posts: 279
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 12:13 am

AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:20 am

Hey all! besides the ones that already announced and the ones most likely already coming down the line ect: BNE MEL do you all think AA will expand anywhere new/outside of the box routes?
Crazy Day Tripper
 
Ishrion
Posts: 1707
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:00 am

Good amount of these likely won’t happen:

DFW-BCN/HEL/ATH/KIX/NGO/TPE/BOM/DEL/CMN/BNE, possibly MEL but likely a QF route.
PHL-HEL/NRT/RAK/CPT/WAW/NAP/AGP/NAP
ORD-DBV/WAW/TXL
PHX-CDG/MAD/FRA/NRT/SYD (yes).
MIA-NRT & more secondary South America
LAX-TPE/MEL/BNE/PRG
CLT-LIS/AMS and more will likely come with the XLR.
JFK-DBV
 
Williamsb747
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Joined: Fri May 17, 2019 9:14 am

Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:55 am

Could we possibly see AA flying to South Africa possibly MIA-CPT or ORD/PHL-JNB.
B747>A340>A350>B777>MD11>B767>B757>MD88/90>B787>A380>A330>A220>A320>B737.
1. CPT
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 6454
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:17 pm

Williamsb747 wrote:
Could we possibly see AA flying to South Africa possibly MIA-CPT or ORD/PHL-JNB.


ORD/PHL-JNB? Hah hah hah! AA's ORD and PHL ops are not TATL powerhouses although PHL has been picking up some seasonal tertiary routes with apparent success.

MIA-CPT? Doubt it. MIA-JNB on a 787-9 might stand a pretty good chance.
 
Detroit313
Posts: 380
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:56 pm

Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:21 pm

The only big holes for AA at the moment are India and South Africa. The big question though is from where to serve those two?
 
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b777900
Posts: 378
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Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:38 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
The only big holes for AA at the moment are India and South Africa. The big question though is from where to serve those two?



That's a easy one the answer is JFK....
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tcaeyx
Posts: 143
Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2015 11:32 pm

Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:46 pm

Still blows my mind that LAX-ICN isn't on the table. There has to be enough O&D to support a daily 788 without sabotaging DFW-ICN.
 
Q
Posts: 968
Joined: Sun Sep 24, 2000 10:29 am

Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:55 pm

UA already took route CPT from EWR.

Q
 
smi0006
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Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:21 pm

I can’t see LAX-BNE, but was astounded AKL/CHC whilst seasonal beat MEL. I would have bet a huge amount of money on AA adding some LAX-MEL capacity to allow QF to remove the twice weekly 789, and boost capacity. Surely must be next addition for the JV?
 
smi0006
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Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:22 pm

I can’t see LAX-BNE, but was astounded AKL/CHC whilst seasonal beat MEL. I would have bet a huge amount of money on AA adding some LAX-MEL capacity to allow QF to remove the twice weekly 789, and boost capacity. Surely must be next addition for the JV? BNE has a huge amount of US capacity headed its way with SFO and ORD, can’t see AA joining this bloodbath.
 
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jsnww81
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Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:54 pm

Honestly I wouldn't hold my breath for "blockbuster" routes like LAX-ICN or DFW-BOM. Current AA leadership seems to prefer cautious addition of seasonal international routes, watching carefully to see what sticks, and slowly notching it toward year-round service over a period of multiple years.

Routes like PHL-DBV and PHL-BLQ were big gambles. Dubrovnik was a hit, Bologna was not. I'm sure Krakow and Casablanca will be monitored the same way this summer, and if the payoff doesn't materialize they'll get whacked just as fast as Bologna was. AA doesn't have much patience for market stimulation these days.

If we see any additions, IMHO they'll be these same type of cautious seasonal additions. Routes like DFW-BCN or PHL-NAP seem like something we could see.

MIA-JNB has been discussed on this site for the entire twenty years I've been reading the forums. I've stopped holding my breath. If they were interested, it would have been attempted under (more adventurous) prior leadership.

Even with the JV, the US-Australia/NZ routes are soaked with capacity these days. I'm not expecting any further additions from AA/QF, other than maybe some back-and-forth metal swaps.
 
golfingboy
Posts: 57
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2008 5:03 pm

Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:56 pm

I won't expect much in the next two years - AA is not growing their wide body fleet in the near term and any new routes will need to come at the expense of another route.

Growth will resume in 2022 and hopefully accelerating in 2023 with A321XLRs and 789s starting to come online. Deliveries over the next two years mainly will be replacing 767s and A333s on nearly 1 on 1 basis.
 
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chepos
Posts: 7020
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Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:03 pm

jsnww81 wrote:
Honestly I wouldn't hold my breath for "blockbuster" routes like LAX-ICN or DFW-BOM. Current AA leadership seems to prefer cautious addition of seasonal international routes, watching carefully to see what sticks, and slowly notching it toward year-round service over a period of multiple years.

Routes like PHL-DBV and PHL-BLQ were big gambles. Dubrovnik was a hit, Bologna was not. I'm sure Krakow and Casablanca will be monitored the same way this summer, and if the payoff doesn't materialize they'll get whacked just as fast as Bologna was. AA doesn't have much patience for market stimulation these days.

If we see any additions, IMHO they'll be these same type of cautious seasonal additions. Routes like DFW-BCN or PHL-NAP seem like something we could see.

MIA-JNB has been discussed on this site for the entire twenty years I've been reading the forums. I've stopped holding my breath. If they were interested, it would have been attempted under (more adventurous) prior leadership.

Even with the JV, the US-Australia/NZ routes are soaked with capacity these days. I'm not expecting any further additions from AA/QF, other than maybe some back-and-forth metal swaps.


I’m not sure I would have called prior leadership at least in the 2000’s more adventurous.


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ABEguy
Posts: 81
Joined: Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:02 pm

Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:11 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Williamsb747 wrote:
Could we possibly see AA flying to South Africa possibly MIA-CPT or ORD/PHL-JNB.


ORD/PHL-JNB? Hah hah hah! AA's ORD and PHL ops are not TATL powerhouses although PHL has been picking up some seasonal tertiary routes with apparent success.

MIA-CPT? Doubt it. MIA-JNB on a 787-9 might stand a pretty good chance.


Just curious, whats you’re definition of a TATL powerhouse? AA’s PHL ops sees 20 TATL flight per day during peak season.
 
Gregd75
Posts: 39
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:11 pm

Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:46 pm

Was there an announcement that AA would fly DFW - ACA? When would that International service start?
 
ABEguy
Posts: 81
Joined: Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:02 pm

Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:39 pm

jsnww81 wrote:
Honestly I wouldn't hold my breath for "blockbuster" routes like LAX-ICN or DFW-BOM. Current AA leadership seems to prefer cautious addition of seasonal international routes, watching carefully to see what sticks, and slowly notching it toward year-round service over a period of multiple years.

Routes like PHL-DBV and PHL-BLQ were big gambles. Dubrovnik was a hit, Bologna was not. I'm sure Krakow and Casablanca will be monitored the same way this summer, and if the payoff doesn't materialize they'll get whacked just as fast as Bologna was. AA doesn't have much patience for market stimulation these days.

If we see any additions, IMHO they'll be these same type of cautious seasonal additions. Routes like DFW-BCN or PHL-NAP seem like something we could see.

MIA-JNB has been discussed on this site for the entire twenty years I've been reading the forums. I've stopped holding my breath. If they were interested, it would have been attempted under (more adventurous) prior leadership.

Even with the JV, the US-Australia/NZ routes are soaked with capacity these days. I'm not expecting any further additions from AA/QF, other than maybe some back-and-forth metal swaps.


Vasu has been pretty consistent with his views, if it doesn’t work they’ll try something different. But you’re not really giving the full picture with the above example. The truth is that in the last few years AA added PRG BUD DBV TXL & BLQ to PHL. one of those didn’t perform and was cut. The others are working and in some cases extending season, and upgauging aircraft. So not really a 50/50 success rate like you’re eluding to.
 
Ishrion
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Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:59 pm

Gregd75 wrote:
Was there an announcement that AA would fly DFW - ACA? When would that International service start?


Announced back in May.

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx
 
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jsnww81
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Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:25 pm

ABEguy wrote:
Vasu has been pretty consistent with his views, if it doesn’t work they’ll try something different. But you’re not really giving the full picture with the above example. The truth is that in the last few years AA added PRG BUD DBV TXL & BLQ to PHL. one of those didn’t perform and was cut. The others are working and in some cases extending season, and upgauging aircraft. So not really a 50/50 success rate like you’re eluding to.


Yes, most of the gambles have been successful, you're right. That's the benefit of having a network planning team that can study flows and figure out what is most likely to work. Most of those cities are less business and more tourism, and work best in the summer when American travelers will pay higher prices to see them in nice weather. The "old" AA was all about year-round transatlantic service to markets with healthy business demand.

I wonder if the Bologna service might have worked better going in and out of Pisa. Both cities are gateways to Florence - obviously a huge tourist draw - but many US travelers have never heard of Bologna. PSA can take transatlantic flights (Delta flew there for several years) and I wonder if the demand might have been stronger had AA gone there instead of BLQ.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 1707
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:08 am

jsnww81 wrote:
ABEguy wrote:
Vasu has been pretty consistent with his views, if it doesn’t work they’ll try something different. But you’re not really giving the full picture with the above example. The truth is that in the last few years AA added PRG BUD DBV TXL & BLQ to PHL. one of those didn’t perform and was cut. The others are working and in some cases extending season, and upgauging aircraft. So not really a 50/50 success rate like you’re eluding to.


Yes, most of the gambles have been successful, you're right. That's the benefit of having a network planning team that can study flows and figure out what is most likely to work. Most of those cities are less business and more tourism, and work best in the summer when American travelers will pay higher prices to see them in nice weather. The "old" AA was all about year-round transatlantic service to markets with healthy business demand.

I wonder if the Bologna service might have worked better going in and out of Pisa. Both cities are gateways to Florence - obviously a huge tourist draw - but many US travelers have never heard of Bologna. PSA can take transatlantic flights (Delta flew there for several years) and I wonder if the demand might have been stronger had AA gone there instead of BLQ.


Naples was supposedly being considered instead of Bologna. Truthfully, NAP should work better than BLQ.

UA launched EWR-NAP and seems to be doing well if it's coming back for another season.
 
Gregd75
Posts: 39
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:11 pm

Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:48 pm

Does anyone know how the DFW - ACA route is performing?

It’d be a great boost to tourism in the region if AA increased service and made it year round.

Its just one regional jet, a couple of hours flight but it’d help Acapulco so much!
 
upperdeckfan
Posts: 1003
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 1:59 am

Re: AA and new intl routes... will there be anything new?

Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:34 pm

AA will be back in CCS, not a matter of if but when,

MIA-CCS and DFW-CCS
748,744,742,741,772,773,762,763,
764, 789, 732,733,735,737,738,739,
752, 722, 717,74M,DC10,DC9,M82,
M83, M87, M88,310,319,320,321,332,
333, 343, 346,359,388,L1011,CR2,
CR7, CR9,CRK, E175,E190,ATR42,
DSH8, CS1,CS3

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