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PacoMartin
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speculation given a "what if"

Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:04 pm

Boeing introduced the B737-300 "classic" (first delivery 28. Nov. 1984) which had an exit limit of 149 seats, but was normally configured with 126 seats the longest flight it was used on was a charter from Edmonton to West Palm Beach a GC range of 2,184 nm (slightly longer than JFK-LAX: 2,151 nm). The model was a big success accumulating over 600 orders by the end of 1987 and well over 1100 orders until its replacement, the Next Generation B737-700, began delivering in 1997.

The first A320 delivered on 28 March 1988 which provided an additional 1000 nmi of range over the B737-300, and an exit limit of 195. Of course, the immediate response by Boeing was to begin delivering the B737-400 six months later which duplicated the payload of the A320 but not the range, and to begin work on the Next Generation B737.

What if the A320 had been delayed by 4-5 years? The events of 911 were 3 yrs, 9 mnths after the Next Generation started delivery. Do you think that Boeing would have been happy to keep offering it's aging but powerful B757 to airlines, or do you think that they would have started developing a trans-continental B737 just to fill a need if it didn't have the incentive of competition from Airbus?

It's an interesting thought exercise since Airbus seems to be using this down time for Boeing, by launching the XLR as pre-emptive competition for the NMA.
 
ewt340
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Re: speculation given a "what if"

Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:14 pm

B757 sales dried up back then, hence why Boeing stop their production. They didn't stop producing it because they choose to, but because they are forced to.

Back then, A321 doesn't have the same popularity or performance as it is today. If you look at the delivery of A321. It started to reach more than 50 deliveries per year after the year of 2007. Which is 13 years after its initial launch in 1994. The delay for A320 in 1998 wouldn't really deter airlines since both of the series actually bloom late at their life stage. A320 reach more than 200 deliveries per year after 2008 too.

Airbus did XLR because they know they could capture the lower end of MoM. This put a really big dent on NMA.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: speculation given a "what if"

Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:31 pm

ewt340 wrote:
B757 sales dried up back then, hence why Boeing stop their production. They didn't stop producing it because they choose to, but because they are forced to. Back then, A321 doesn't have the same popularity or performance as it is today. If you look at the delivery of A321. It started to reach more than 50 deliveries per year after the year of 2007. Which is 13 years after its initial launch in 1994.


Every statistic you cite is correct, but the A321 did have 49 deliveries in 2001. I've always felt that the A321 hastened the demise of the B757.

Deliveries of 757-200
1982 2
1983 25
1984 18
1985 36
1986 35
1987 35
1988 37
1989 50
1990 69
1991 74
1992 94
1993 66
1994 57 The A321-100 entered service in January 1994 with Lufthansa.
1995 35
1996 37
1997 36
1998 51
1999 58
2000 37
2001 36 There are 49 A321s delivered.
2002 14
2003 3
2004 6
2005 2

ewt340 wrote:
The delay for A320 in 1998 wouldn't really deter airlines since both of the series actually bloom late at their life stage. A320 reach more than 200 deliveries per year after 2008 too. Airbus did XLR because they know they could capture the lower end of MoM. This put a really big dent on NMA.

They bloomed late, but the B737 didn't have the massive sales until the NG. If they A321 had been delayed until 9/11 then that might have delayed the introduction of the NG.
 
ewt340
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Re: speculation given a "what if"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:45 am

PacoMartin wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
B757 sales dried up back then, hence why Boeing stop their production. They didn't stop producing it because they choose to, but because they are forced to. Back then, A321 doesn't have the same popularity or performance as it is today. If you look at the delivery of A321. It started to reach more than 50 deliveries per year after the year of 2007. Which is 13 years after its initial launch in 1994.


Every statistic you cite is correct, but the A321 did have 49 deliveries in 2001. I've always felt that the A321 hastened the demise of the B757.

Deliveries of 757-200
1982 2
1983 25
1984 18
1985 36
1986 35
1987 35
1988 37
1989 50
1990 69
1991 74
1992 94
1993 66
1994 57 The A321-100 entered service in January 1994 with Lufthansa.
1995 35
1996 37
1997 36
1998 51
1999 58
2000 37
2001 36 There are 49 A321s delivered.
2002 14
2003 3
2004 6
2005 2

ewt340 wrote:
The delay for A320 in 1998 wouldn't really deter airlines since both of the series actually bloom late at their life stage. A320 reach more than 200 deliveries per year after 2008 too. Airbus did XLR because they know they could capture the lower end of MoM. This put a really big dent on NMA.

They bloomed late, but the B737 didn't have the massive sales until the NG. If they A321 had been delayed until 9/11 then that might have delayed the introduction of the NG.


If you see the delivery of A321 after 2001. It actually dipped so low to the point where it reached 17 frames in 2005. So I wouldn't called 2001 a boom. Only after 2007 that they could sustain proper growth.

As for B737. The classic actually sell really well. It's just that the aviation market hasn't developed as well as it is today. And we don't have as much LCC back then crowding the market like today since many of them are the largest operators of narrow-bodies in the world today. Many surpassing Full Service Airlines.
And remember, in the 1990, we have 2.5 billions less human on earth at that time and the economy of many countries were not as good as today. So those factors should have been taken into the considerations when we look at aircraft sales back then.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: speculation given a "what if"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:14 am

ewt340 wrote:
As for B737. The classic actually sell really well. It's just that the aviation market hasn't developed as well as it is today. And we don't have as much LCC back then crowding the market like today since many of them are the largest operators of narrow-bodies in the world today. Many surpassing Full Service Airlines.
And remember, in the 1990, we have 2.5 billions less human on earth at that time and the economy of many countries were not as good as today. So those factors should have been taken into the considerations when we look at aircraft sales back then.


Also valid points. The birth of transcontinental twin engine flights was 1982 with the B752. The dual aisle twin engine jet developed ultra rapidly in the 1980s so that they achieved the majority of Trans Atlantic passengers by the end of the decade.

The A320 was a true middle of the market jet, as it was capable of flying trans-continental in a jet that was positioned almost dead center between the B737-300 and the B757-200. Although it took two decades to fully realize it's potential, the decision to aim for the MOM gave them the stepping stone to build the jet into a plane which could take out the B757 and also dominate the B737.

I wonder what would have happened if it had come four years later. Presumably the A321-200 would have come four years later in the chaos after 911. Without the competition of the A320/A321 the Next Generation would have also come four years later, also in the aftermath of 911. Our present landscape might look very different today.

Model - First Delivery Date - Number of deliveries
757-200 22. Dec. 1982 913 deliveries
767-200 19. Aug. 1982 128
767-200ER 26. Mar. 1984 121
767-300 25. Sep. 1986 104
767-300ER 19. Feb. 1988 583
767-400ER 11. Aug. 2000 38

The A300-600R first delivered in 1983
The first A320 delivered on 28 March 1988

737-300 28. Nov. 1984 1113 deliveries
737-400 15. Sep. 1988 486
737-500 28. Feb. 1990 389
....
737-700 17. Dec. 1997 1128
737-600 18. Sep. 1998 69

The Airbus view of the B797 is that it will lose enough of its market to the A321XLR and the A330-900 that it will limp along with mediocre sales and barely or never recover its development costs. but maybe it will establish a beachhead, the way the A320 did, that will allow development until the late 21st century.

The only real alternative is to try and re-engineer the B788 so that it much more efficient and try to push deliveries of that model over 1000.
787-8 25. Sep. 2011 370 out of 426 orders
787-9 30. Jun. 2014 520 out of 879 orders
787-10 14. Mar. 2018 49 out of 196 orders
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: speculation given a "what if"

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:12 am

If you look at Boeing's order book, you wonder if anyone would have predicted the changes over two decades. There wasn't a substantial change in in 737 orders from 1988 to 2000, but a large change in wide-body orders with the introduction of the B777. By 2017 the mass orders in B737 were apparent.

1988 (460 single aisle jets | 132 dual aisle jets)
737-300 89
737-400 149
737-500 74 312
757-200 145
757-200PF 3 148
767-200 5
767-200ER 13
767-300 4
767-300ER 61 83
747-200F 4
747-200M 1
747-300M 1
747-400 38
747-400D 2
747-400M 3 49

2000 (438 single aisle jets | 151 dual aisle jets)
717-200 21 21
737-700 195
737-700C 1
737-800 167
737-900 1
737-900ER 1 365
BBJ 6
BBJ2 3 9
757-200 31
757-300 12 43
767-200ER 1
767-300ER 4
767-300F 4 9
777-200 1
777-200ER 49
777-300 5
777-300ER 61 116
747-400 8
747-400ER 6
747-400F 12 26

2017 (831 single aisle jets | 165 dual aisle jets)
737 MAX 748
737-700C 2
737-800 36
737-800A 21
737-900ER 14 821
BBJ 2
BBJ2 2 4
767-2C 15 15
777-300ER 22
777F 10
777X 20 52
787-10 19
787-8 11
787-9 68 98
747-8 3
747-8F 3 6

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