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Aidenboss7
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What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:27 pm

After the Fall of Thomas cook, what will fall next
 
ExpatVet
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Thu Oct 10, 2019 9:44 am

They will go out of business because they don't have the money to continue operations.
L101, 733/4/5/8/9, 741/2/3 (never managed 744!), MD 80/2/3/8/90, MD11, DHC8/3/Q4, E170, E195, 757, 77W, 763/4, Travel Air 2000. A300/310, A319/320/321, A333, ATR-72, probably a few others I forget. Passenger, not pilot, alas! BUD based.
 
lalib
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sun Oct 13, 2019 9:04 am

Thai airways maybe
 
737tanker
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sun Oct 13, 2019 11:29 am

Southwest because the MAXs are still grounded and the NGs will probably be grounded due to the cracks being found in the “Pickle Forks”
 
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FlyRow
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sun Oct 13, 2019 5:33 pm

I wonder about TUI Europe (different airlines, same problem), MAX groundings really hurting then, and the margins on holiday package flights where really thin already.
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FriscoHeavy
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sun Oct 13, 2019 7:30 pm

737tanker wrote:
Southwest because the MAXs are still grounded and the NGs will probably be grounded due to the cracks being found in the “Pickle Forks”


That’s a joke, right?
Whatever
 
ei146
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Mon Oct 14, 2019 6:34 am

If I knew I'd be reach already and not waste my time reading aviation forums.
 
Blerg
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Fri Oct 18, 2019 11:43 am

Adria Airways went bankrupt a while ago. I think Croatia Airlines will go bust in the next year or two.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Fri Oct 18, 2019 11:51 am

Here are my predictions for India

For political and financial reasons
Air India(in 2020). No one will buy even with just $1.4 billion debt and the government insists on claiming to achieve a disinvestment goal of $8B thru shutdown.

For political reasons
Indigo(prior to 2024). Reasons: Infighting and powers of the country seem to be working against them.
If Indigo survives SpiceJet will go down after 2024. Reasons: Its balance sheet is balanced on a heavy tax write-offs. Without political support, it will go belly up.

For financial reasons
Vistara is loss-making, already has debt, and the induction of widebodies could go really wrong in India and follow Jet Airways path. I hope they tread the debt waters carefully.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:17 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Here are my predictions for India

For political and financial reasons
Air India(in 2020). No one will buy even with just $1.4 billion debt and the government insists on claiming to achieve a disinvestment goal of $8B thru shutdown.

For political reasons
Indigo(prior to 2024). Reasons: Infighting and powers of the country seem to be working against them.
If Indigo survives SpiceJet will go down after 2024. Reasons: Its balance sheet is balanced on a heavy tax write-offs. Without political support, it will go belly up.

For financial reasons
Vistara is loss-making, already has debt, and the induction of widebodies could go really wrong in India and follow Jet Airways path. I hope they tread the debt waters carefully.


My money is actually on GoAir to go bust before anyone else.
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J343
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:15 pm

Malaysia Airlines (I hope not despite putting me through hell, they have a decent onboard product)

Garuda Indonesia - Couldn't make their mind up about Europe. Too many B77Ws.

Philippine Airlines - FSC? LCC? Hybrid? Who knows?? Competing with ME3, CX, SQ for PH-Europe market but I just don't see their potential.
 
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chepos
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:32 pm

These threads make me wonder, do we enjoy seeing airlines grounded and people out of jobs?


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leftcoast8
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:24 pm

My money is on Thai Airways and Malaysia Airlines, given how much government meddling there has been in each.
 
Turnhouse1
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:45 am

Thomas Cook's problem was largely debt from mergers 10 years ago rather than operational losses. So looking for airlines with high debt loading which might be difficult to refinance is likely to be a good indicator, though massive operational losses aren't a good sign either. TUI and Jet2 are probably some of the more solid airlines now, as I don't believe they are over leveraged and the removal of a competitor will improve their margins, both are indeed looking at expansion to fill the gaps left by TCX.
 
leghorn
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:19 pm

Aurigny has the confidence of the Guernsey government but ch-aviation doesn't paint a rosy picture.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/83536
 
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klm617
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Thu Nov 21, 2019 11:07 pm

chepos wrote:
These threads make me wonder, do we enjoy seeing airlines grounded and people out of jobs?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I think there are a lot of airline types on this forum who get great joy out of failures that allow their beloved airlines to get stronger and more powerful. I know they is great joy on this forum with the collapse of WOW Air but WOW Air did a lot for the market that is way over controlled by the megacarriers. It's just a shame because if it were not for the need for WOW to be in every major market it would still be alive and well today.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
bananaboy
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 9:39 am

FlyRow wrote:
I wonder about TUI Europe (different airlines, same problem), MAX groundings really hurting then, and the margins on holiday package flights where really thin already.


Tui aren't going anywhere soon. They made a decent (albeit reduced) profit in Q3 and in many ways are a very different business to Thomas Cook as they keep much more business in house with greater interests in hotels and cruise. They sell a lot through their retail estate and are years ahead in terms of online distribution compared to where Thomas Cook were. They may have some challenges ahead but IMHO they're much more able and nimble to navigate through.

Mark
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Max Q
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:15 am

Has to be Norwegian
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


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3BNBE
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sat Nov 23, 2019 10:22 am

Maybe South African Airways which has huge amounts of debts and can't survive without constant government aid.
The recent strikes have rendered it even more vulnerable, and there are various doubts for the future.
Even its CEO was thinking of giving up at some point.
 
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passengerpigeon
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 1:41 am

Max Q wrote:
Has to be Norwegian

For what reasons? They seem to be getting more cautious with fleet expansion, and I'm sure they would have gone under by now if people were only willing to fly them on their initial loss-leader introductory fares considering the length of time they've been doing long-haul.
chepos wrote:
These threads make me wonder, do we enjoy seeing airlines grounded and people out of jobs?

Not in principle, no, but I enjoy seeing a bit of drama in an otherwise very boring period in aviation. It's interesting seeing how carriers fill in the gaps, and what happens with the airline's former fleet.
 
mrgrtt123
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Tue Nov 26, 2019 2:16 am

A few months ago I heard and read some articles about the financial problem of Norwegian Air.
 
juliuswong
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:10 am

Update for airlines which went bust this year (Not an exhaustive list).
- Germania (Germany)
- California Pacific (US)
- Flybmi (UK)
- Insel Air (Curaçao)
- Asian Express Airline (Tajikistan)
- WOW (Iceland)
- Aerolíneas de Antioquía (Colombia)
- Fly Jamaica Airways (Jamaica)
- Air Philip (South Korea)
- Jet Airways (India)
- Wisdom Airways (Thailand)
- Avianca Brasil
- Avianca Argentina
- Al Naser Wings Airlines (Iraq)
- Aigle Azur (France)
- XL Airways (France)
- Thomas Cook (UK)
- Adria (Slovenia)
- Peruvian Airlines (Peru)
- New Gen Airways (Thailand)
- Via Airlines (US)
- TAM Bolivia
- Taron Avia (Armenia)
- Astra (Greece)
- FAT Far Eastern Air Transport (Taiwan)

https://allplane.tv/blog/2019/2/11/airl ... st-is-open
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716131
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:13 pm

Aidenboss7 wrote:
After the Fall of Thomas cook, what will fall next

Jettime and most smaller European Airlines will fall next.
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
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rjsampson
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:30 pm

Delta Airlines. And like an earlier poster said: Southwest.














(There’s rumors the aircraft they’re retiring will be inexplicably replaced with pigs)
"..your eyes will be forever turned skyward, for there.." yeah we know the DaVinci quote. Unfortunately, we're grounded :(
 
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passengerpigeon
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:08 pm

rjsampson wrote:
Delta Airlines. And like an earlier poster said: Southwest.

What? On what grounds do you think DL and WN are in trouble? The former has exemplary profits and the latter still has enough aircraft to not be sunk by the 737 MAX issues. SAA is in "business rescue" (which I really hope means turning the carrier into a profitable and competitive company, rather than an Alitalia-style government zombie) and Hong Kong Airlines was in the toilet bowl about a week ago, until HNA secured its future with a cash injection.
 
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rjsampson
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:09 am

passengerpigeon wrote:
What? On what grounds do you think DL and WN are in trouble? The former has exemplary profits and the latter still has enough aircraft to not be sunk by the 737 MAX issues. SAA is in "business rescue" (which I really hope means turning the carrier into a profitable and competitive company, rather than an Alitalia-style government zombie) and Hong Kong Airlines was in the toilet bowl about a week ago, until HNA secured its future with a cash injection.


Please re-read my comment at the end, closely. :)

rjsampson wrote:
(There’s rumors the aircraft they’re retiring will be inexplicably replaced with pigs)
"..your eyes will be forever turned skyward, for there.." yeah we know the DaVinci quote. Unfortunately, we're grounded :(
 
716131
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Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:03 pm

So I’m now wandering to tell you that now I see that AtlasGlobal has ceased operating for the second time until February. This is the second time they did and last time was back in November when they suspend flights until December when it resumed as charter operation. The airline decided to suspend flights once again on financial problems. AtlasGlobal is currently suspended until February 9. Few weeks ago we see Ernest Airlines going out of business permanently and now AtlasGlobal will likely ceased permanently if their financial is not improved through this year. Most airlines ceased every year like Thomas Cook (2019), Primera (2018) and Monarch (2017). To my question, which airlines other than AtlasGlobal and Ernest will likely ceased next in 2020?

https://simpleflying.com/atlasglobal-suspension-again/

**If this thread is already found in another similar thread, please locked this thread. Thank you.**
Last edited by 716131 on Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
Ishrion
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:04 pm

South African Airways.
 
Drucocu
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:06 pm

Please just let Alitalia finally die
 
bennett123
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:10 pm

I would not put money on Flybe surviving.
 
Q
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:18 pm

FriscoHeavy wrote:
737tanker wrote:
Southwest because the MAXs are still grounded and the NGs will probably be grounded due to the cracks being found in the “Pickle Forks”


That’s a joke, right?



Southwest has 500ish fleet of Boeing 737-700/800 is still making a lot of profit. MAX 8 are 30ish grounded. I don't think it is happening Southwest is going out of business, Southwest is still strong.

Q
 
716131
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:21 pm

Q wrote:
FriscoHeavy wrote:
737tanker wrote:
Southwest because the MAXs are still grounded and the NGs will probably be grounded due to the cracks being found in the “Pickle Forks”


That’s a joke, right?



Southwest has 500ish fleet of Boeing 737-700/800 is still making a lot of profit. MAX 8 are 30ish grounded. I don't think it is happening Southwest is going out of business, Southwest is still strong.

Q

And you know Southwest has more planes that Ryanair. So making Southwest out of Business is impossible.
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
716131
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:33 pm

J343 wrote:
Malaysia Airlines (I hope not despite putting me through hell, they have a decent onboard product)

Garuda Indonesia - Couldn't make their mind up about Europe. Too many B77Ws.

Philippine Airlines - FSC? LCC? Hybrid? Who knows?? Competing with ME3, CX, SQ for PH-Europe market but I just don't see their potential.

Garuda is on scandal now after the fire of Ari Ashkara (ex Garuda CEO) for being corrupted in Indonesian aviation in 2019 and Harley Davidson illegal purchase and he was now likely to sentence to prison for corruptions. Emirsyah Satar (Another ex Garuda CEO until 2015) is also in corruption now for ordering the CRJ-1000, B77W (like you mention here) and for Rolls Royce Bribe. As for MAS, I don't know the fate of this airline. But for PAL, their European service is in poor demand compared to other routes they fly and also poor compared to fly other Asian airlines to Europe (Except Garuda) which also have same problems like PAL.
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readytotaxi
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:36 pm

Drucocu wrote:
Please just let Alitalia finally die

They are already dead, just no one told em, a zombie outfit. :lol:
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 8:17 pm

Drucocu wrote:
Please just let Alitalia finally die


Can't see that happening. They're not profitable and never will be, but the funds they currently have will last them through at least this year.

By the way, I'm surprised nobody has mentioned Tarom so far. Just like Alitalia many times they also had to be saved by the government. Without government bailout we'd be facing the end of Tarom right now.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Sun Jan 19, 2020 8:24 pm

Blerg wrote:
Adria Airways went bankrupt a while ago. I think Croatia Airlines will go bust in the next year or two.


Or Nordica. They've already retrieved from flying commercially under their own name, now just performing leasing operations for other airlines. But how sustainable of a business is that? I'd say Nordica is a dying airline.
 
airhansa
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Re: What airlines will go bankrupt next? And why will they go bankrupt?

Mon Jan 20, 2020 4:38 pm

Flybe is an obvious candidate because it's already facing administration. A poster above mentioned Aurigny, which could be closely tied in with the future of Flybe as both operate a number of routes that might be picked up by the government as subsidy routes.

Alitalia will not go under because it's a state-owned airline. But it might be sold to the likes of IAG or AF-KLM (Lufthansa probably would not be able to deal with the company culture in Italy, but I presume that both IAG and AFKLM can due to Iberia and Air France). Chinese investment is also a good option for Italy at this point since the Chinese are likely to see brand value in it.

Air India will not go under simply because the country doesn't have any other standard airlines flying internationally. The other national airlines of the region are also in a similar position.

I wonder if Ukraine International Airlines will make it through the mini-crisis they've got on their hands? It is already in financial trouble and it doesn't have a strong domestic market to draw from.

Thai Airways is unlikely to fold because it has got a strong domestic market for air travel (and it has been seen as a growing destination for connecting travel as well).

Malaysian Airlines will probably get some investment from the likes of the Gulf carriers since it is a Muslim country. A merger with an Indian airline might be of use since most Indians are probably too poor to afford the type of customers they want as Singapore.

Ethiad might end up being merged with Emirates at some point.


.
FlyRow wrote:
I wonder about TUI Europe (different airlines, same problem), MAX groundings really hurting then, and the margins on holiday package flights where really thin already.


TUI will be safe because its main operations are in countries where the package holiday (tour operators) still have a consumer market to draw from. In fact they would probably be made stronger by the collapse of Thomas Cook.
 
716131
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:34 am

Update: Flybe just ceased trading and I only have an hope that Norwegian will go bust next.
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
masi1157
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:03 am

SQ789 wrote:
... and I only have an hope that Norwegian will go bust next.

What personal interest would anybody have in that? I seriously don't understand it. We will board a flight of Norwegian in a few minutes and I hope we will fly with them again in the future. It always was a pleasure.


Gruß, masi1157
517 different segments on 101 airlines to 212 airports in 55 countries
 
Flanker7
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:52 am

SQ789 wrote:
Update: Flybe just ceased trading and I only have an hope that Norwegian will go bust next.

Explain pls, I always thought that their grow model was insane and would get them into trouble but wishing they would go bust, no. Just think about all those working for them losing their jobs, I don't wish that on anybody.
Flying blue only if possible
 
716131
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:12 am

masi1157 wrote:
SQ789 wrote:
... and I only have an hope that Norwegian will go bust next.

What personal interest would anybody have in that? I seriously don't understand it. We will board a flight of Norwegian in a few minutes and I hope we will fly with them again in the future. It always was a pleasure.


Gruß, masi1157

I heard that they are in more financial troubles due to MAX grouding, more planes and worst, Coronavirus outbreak.
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
masi1157
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:45 am

SQ789 wrote:
I heard that they are in more financial troubles due to MAX grouding, more planes and worst, Coronavirus outbreak.

And then you "hope" they go bankrupt? Hundreds of employees lose their jobs? Thousands of passengers with booked and paid tickets lose their money? No, I don't understand at all how anybody can "hope" that.


Gruß, masi1157
517 different segments on 101 airlines to 212 airports in 55 countries
 
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FlyRow
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:57 am

SQ789 wrote:
Update: Flybe just ceased trading and I only have an hope that Norwegian will go bust next.


Yeah, great if jobs are lost, people are stranded just because you don't like a airline.

That's airliners.net for you.
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PlymSpotter
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:19 pm

SQ789 wrote:
Update: Flybe just ceased trading and I only have an hope that Norwegian will go bust next.


That is a very disappointing and somewhat depraved statement. That you intentionally wish financial, emotional and social hardship onto thousands of people says a lot about who you must be as a person.

I suggest you consider the implications of your 'hopes'.
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
Curiousflyer
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:33 am

My last trip on United saw terrible service. Now they changed their rules due to corona and instead of refunding tickets for two-hour schedule changes, they require 25 hours! In other words they are desperate and it smells bad.

AA are also deep in debt. If people keep being terrified of flying, I am giving those two airlines three months max.
 
Rossiya747
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:10 pm

Curiousflyer wrote:
My last trip on United saw terrible service. Now they changed their rules due to corona and instead of refunding tickets for two-hour schedule changes, they require 25 hours! In other words they are desperate and it smells bad.

AA are also deep in debt. If people keep being terrified of flying, I am giving those two airlines three months max.


Let me remind you that UA and AA are the 3rd and 1st largest airlines in the world.
223 319 320 321 332 333 346 388 734 737 738 739 38M 744 752 753 763 764 772 773 77W 788 789 208 CRJ2 E145 E190 UA DL AA WN AC CM 4O AV 2K FI DY D8 SK LH EI FR U2 IB OS LX BA VS BT PS MS SA SW QR EY HY AI 9W TG SQ MH AK D7 QZ BR NH CA QF MI LV/IB VY AL
 
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chepos
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Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:48 am

Curiousflyer wrote:
My last trip on United saw terrible service. Now they changed their rules due to corona and instead of refunding tickets for two-hour schedule changes, they require 25 hours! In other words they are desperate and it smells bad.

AA are also deep in debt. If people keep being terrified of flying, I am giving those two airlines three months max.


As much cheerleading for UA or AA to go out of business that we see on this site, do you understand the economic chaos that would create in this country. They are two very large transport companies, some communities would be severely impacted, not to mention the thousands affected. Before they go under they would go to BK court.


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Curiousflyer
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:53 am

I understand they are large airlines but I am sure Southwest and JetBlue would be able to fill the void domestically. Internationally, foreign airlines would nab whatever is left of their sorry businesses. It will be easy at the start since everybody is flying empty planes and thus the space is already available.
 
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WesternDC6B
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:43 pm

Rossiya747 wrote:

Let me remind you that UA and AA are the 3rd and 1st largest airlines in the world.


GM was huge and went bankrupt. Radio Corporation of America was huge and are also quite gone except as a licensed logo on cheap junk consumer goods.

Anyone still remember Montgomery Ward, at one time bigger than Sears? Woolworth’s? Or, Sears itself?

Size means nothing if you don’t serve your market or your customers.
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Rossiya747
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Re: Which airlines that will go down next in 2020?

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:04 am

WesternDC6B wrote:
Rossiya747 wrote:

Let me remind you that UA and AA are the 3rd and 1st largest airlines in the world.


GM was huge and went bankrupt. Radio Corporation of America was huge and are also quite gone except as a licensed logo on cheap junk consumer goods.

Anyone still remember Montgomery Ward, at one time bigger than Sears? Woolworth’s? Or, Sears itself?

Size means nothing if you don’t serve your market or your customers.


UA and AA are both going to be bailed out by the US government. Also, your analogies do not make sense. RCA went bankrupt because they sold outdated technologies. GM went bankrupt but still exists as a legitimate business. Also, Sears and other large retail stores were killed of by a new innovation called online shopping. Unless there is a similar development in the air transportation industry then UA and AA will not go bankrupt. The age of airline consolidations in the US is over, and now we are stuck with the big three.
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