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Jo8338
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Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:54 pm

What are AA, UA, and DL doing with all the extra widebody capacity now that China is suspended?
 
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777222LR
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 1:59 pm

NRT/HND/LHR would be my guesses for the highest concentration of US wide bodies outside of the US.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:04 pm

Some (much?) of it won't be flown in this off-season. DL said they're suspending 42 flights/week U.S. China (each way?). It's not like they're going to dump that capacity into LHR (no slots; trashed yields). They will find enough to keep pilots current and frames ready.

https://news.delta.com/delta-temporaril ... ina-flying

If China flying is still greatly suppressed as we enter summer things may get very interesting.
 
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Web500sjc
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:24 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Some (much?) of it won't be flown in this off-season. DL said they're suspending 42 flights/week U.S. China (each way?). It's not like they're going to dump that capacity into LHR (no slots; trashed yields). They will find enough to keep pilots current and frames ready.

https://news.delta.com/delta-temporaril ... ina-flying

If China flying is still greatly suppressed as we enter summer things may get very interesting.


At this point the suspension is only a month or two, as it stands there is not enough time to plan any excessive projects or new flights. You may see some plans to accelerate or catch up on items that are preplanned and don’t require too much down time. You could see some larger wide bodies see some MX time, or maybe see them sub in on TA routes to allow smaller wide bodies and domestic narrow bodies some extended Mx time.

I doubt there is time, but DL could re-jigger their schedule to free up a B764 for cabin mods a bit earlier than planned or UA accelerating B789/B798 Polaris mods. Something that might be less disruptive is AA accelerating the 737-800 OASIS mods (just use the 73M seats). If this becomes a 3-4 month outlook event, then you will probably see DL and UA pull triggers on the more extensive mods.
Last edited by Web500sjc on Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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scbriml
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:41 pm

Web500sjc wrote:
At this point the suspension is only a month or two.


I'll be very surprised if flights to China resume within two months, I expect the suspension to last much longer.
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MKIAZ
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:44 pm

I'd guess domestic routes that can take them to backfill max capacity loss and maybe vacation routes like the caribbean.

Also, I believe freight costs to China are skyrocketing due to the cancellation of flights and all of the medical supplies they need. I'd be curious if it would make sense (more profit than sitting idle) to fly a couple flights full of cargo to China.
 
WaywardMemphian
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 2:59 pm

They could increase TATL and play around with currently unserved routes and test the waters.

How does this effect British, they could try some new TATL
 
behramjee
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:31 pm

US carriers should welcome this as they can use these spare WB planes for peak spring break services throughout March.
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:32 pm

Temporary hub-to-hub routes and/or dump capacity to LAS/MCO.
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CriticalPoint
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:34 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
They could increase TATL and play around with currently unserved routes and test the waters.

How does this effect British, they could try some new TATL


You can’t just start service out of the blue.......there is no testing you need to sell tickets first. Then what do you do when China returns a couple months? Abandon the tickets you sold because now you don’t have an airplane?
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:35 pm

777222LR wrote:
NRT/HND/LHR would be my guesses for the highest concentration of US wide bodies outside of the US.


All are slot restricted you can’t just add service.
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:38 pm

MKIAZ wrote:
I'd guess domestic routes that can take them to backfill max capacity loss and maybe vacation routes like the caribbean.

Also, I believe freight costs to China are skyrocketing due to the cancellation of flights and all of the medical supplies they need. I'd be curious if it would make sense (more profit than sitting idle) to fly a couple flights full of cargo to China.


This is the most likely scenario. You will see WB flying in the US on the highest demand routes to help offset the max.

Also it’s ok to have some spares sitting around. Now there is no excuse to cancel an INTL flight for tech reasons.

Someone smarter than me can figure it out but how many “spare” WB are we talking about for UA,DL,AA? I would guess 8 or so?
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:54 pm

I could see this triggering the main retirement wave of A330s and 777s.
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:59 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
I could see this triggering the main retirement wave of A330s and 777s.


No......come on why all the doom and gloom? It is two major cities and it’s a virus. It’ll get beat and the flying will return. We’re talking less than 10 WB aircraft a fleet. If this drags on and millions die In China then yes we will see retirements but more than likely you will see them redeployed.

This is temporary folks were talking 8 weeks.
 
Antarius
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:04 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
I could see this triggering the main retirement wave of A330s and 777s.


And then what would airlines do in a few months?
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:09 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
No......come on why all the doom and gloom? It is two major cities and it’s a virus. It’ll get beat and the flying will return. We’re talking less than 10 WB aircraft a fleet. If this drags on and millions die In China then yes we will see retirements but more than likely you will see them redeployed.


We'll have a LOT more to worried about than a few A330 and B777 retiring if the death toll climb that high.

I agree with you otherwise - what's with the doom and gloom? At worse it'll last until April or May.
 
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:11 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
I could see this triggering the main retirement wave of A330s and 777s.

We should also find out how many of those leasing firms in the wide body order spreadsheets actually have customers to fill the slots, and how many are just place holders.
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:12 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
I could see this triggering the main retirement wave of A330s and 777s.


No......come on why all the doom and gloom? It is two major cities and it’s a virus. It’ll get beat and the flying will return. We’re talking less than 10 WB aircraft a fleet. If this drags on and millions die In China then yes we will see retirements but more than likely you will see them redeployed.

This is temporary folks were talking 8 weeks.


Exactly, I mean these pandemics have happened before (more recently H1N1, SARS, etc). The way these things usually go, there is a collective hysteria, flights gets suspended, the situation/health crisis starts stabilizing and eventually people forget and they start traveling to affected areas again. This is the flavor of the week, so it is all people and the media talk about at the moment.


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MIflyer12
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:20 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
They could increase TATL and play around with currently unserved routes and test the waters.

How does this effect British, they could try some new TATL


I don't think there's much money to be made to secondary and tertiary Europe in winter, especially with no advance bookings. DL could run another ATL/JFK-CDG, and maybe an extra flight to Rome for a week before and after Easter, but nothing on the scale of 42 flights/week.

I dismissed the idea of speeding up 764/763 refurbs because I assume that lines and seat vendors are already booked to capacity - but maybe there's some opportunity.
 
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777222LR
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:27 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
777222LR wrote:
NRT/HND/LHR would be my guesses for the highest concentration of US wide bodies outside of the US.


All are slot restricted you can’t just add service.



My apologies...I thought the poster was asking where the most widebody flights could be found outside of China.
 
goosebayguy
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:47 pm

EK have parked a lot of aircraft at DXB.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 5:48 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
No......come on why all the doom and gloom? It is two major cities and it’s a virus. It’ll get beat and the flying will return. We’re talking less than 10 WB aircraft a fleet. If this drags on and millions die In China then yes we will see retirements but more than likely you will see them redeployed.


We'll have a LOT more to worried about than a few A330 and B777 retiring if the death toll climb that high.

I agree with you otherwise - what's with the doom and gloom? At worse it'll last until April or May.

Firstly, April or May may be a bit too long for some airlines already affected by the global economic slowdown. Remember how many airlines we lost last year without any crisis?

Plus, the experience from SARS was that in the affected regions, recovery was gradual, not exactly slow but things will not go back to normal immediately, more like 6 months to a year for most affected regions. If this one hits globally, it would have a greater impact on the global economy and will take longer to recover from. And as for Wuhan, I seriously doubt normal overseas tourists would want to make leisure visits there for at least 1.5 years.

Also, there was no widespread bans during SARS, probably helped by the fact that SARS only spreads when the person is symptomatic. This virus, on the other hand, can spread without any symptoms, and countries have been enacting travel bans.

Considering the above points, and the fact that the Asian aviation market has changed so much since SARS, the market dynamics have changed. We will now see which airlines have strong fundamentals to survive this, and the HNA group will be an interesting one to see.
 
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:40 pm

I would expect to see DL throw some on ATL - Florida for the rest of the winter.
Also could see AA add some to MIA-ORD/LAX taking off some 32B to cover MAX flying
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 10:58 pm

I would not be surprised if DL flew these aircraft into AMS and CDG (skyteam hubs). As for UA and AA, I would expect them to fill in on high frequency MAX routes (LAS-DFW/CLT/ORD, ORD-DFW/IAH, DEN-LAX/ORD, JFK/LGA/EWR-LAX, etc.), then let the 737s and 757s handle the less frequent routes if replaced by a widebody.
So... when will the Northwest DC-9s be retired?
 
jetskipper
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:42 pm

I could see Florida and Cancún getting upgauged for the Spring Break season.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:48 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
No......come on why all the doom and gloom? It is two major cities and it’s a virus. It’ll get beat and the flying will return. We’re talking less than 10 WB aircraft a fleet. If this drags on and millions die In China then yes we will see retirements but more than likely you will see them redeployed.


We'll have a LOT more to worried about than a few A330 and B777 retiring if the death toll climb that high.

I agree with you otherwise - what's with the doom and gloom? At worse it'll last until April or May.

Firstly, April or May may be a bit too long for some airlines already affected by the global economic slowdown. Remember how many airlines we lost last year without any crisis?

Plus, the experience from SARS was that in the affected regions, recovery was gradual, not exactly slow but things will not go back to normal immediately, more like 6 months to a year for most affected regions. If this one hits globally, it would have a greater impact on the global economy and will take longer to recover from. And as for Wuhan, I seriously doubt normal overseas tourists would want to make leisure visits there for at least 1.5 years.

Also, there was no widespread bans during SARS, probably helped by the fact that SARS only spreads when the person is symptomatic. This virus, on the other hand, can spread without any symptoms, and countries have been enacting travel bans.

Considering the above points, and the fact that the Asian aviation market has changed so much since SARS, the market dynamics have changed. We will now see which airlines have strong fundamentals to survive this, and the HNA group will be an interesting one to see.

And then airlines retire planes because they can't use that for six months, even though they are needed for the next 10-20 years???

This is not the way airlines plan capacity.

Michael
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:55 am

eamondzhang wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:

We'll have a LOT more to worried about than a few A330 and B777 retiring if the death toll climb that high.

I agree with you otherwise - what's with the doom and gloom? At worse it'll last until April or May.

Firstly, April or May may be a bit too long for some airlines already affected by the global economic slowdown. Remember how many airlines we lost last year without any crisis?

Plus, the experience from SARS was that in the affected regions, recovery was gradual, not exactly slow but things will not go back to normal immediately, more like 6 months to a year for most affected regions. If this one hits globally, it would have a greater impact on the global economy and will take longer to recover from. And as for Wuhan, I seriously doubt normal overseas tourists would want to make leisure visits there for at least 1.5 years.

Also, there was no widespread bans during SARS, probably helped by the fact that SARS only spreads when the person is symptomatic. This virus, on the other hand, can spread without any symptoms, and countries have been enacting travel bans.

Considering the above points, and the fact that the Asian aviation market has changed so much since SARS, the market dynamics have changed. We will now see which airlines have strong fundamentals to survive this, and the HNA group will be an interesting one to see.

And then airlines retire planes because they can't use that for six months, even though they are needed for the next 10-20 years???

This is not the way airlines plan capacity.

Michael


Regarding airline shutting down - yes, SOME airlines would be hit hard. HNA Group, for example, would just be hit even harder, especially if China increase their "quarantine" and further clamp down on INTERNAL movements.

The thread itself is asking about US-based airlines, though, and quite frankly, US-based airlines are not affected that much as they can simply shift capacity here and there along with moving forward some scheduled downtime (i.e. heavy checks, cabin reconfiguration, etc.). The widebody market WORLDWIDE, however, would see some effects as some airlines would delay taking planes, while for some other, it helps with the capacity clutch (LOT and their 787 for example).
 
tphuang
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:10 am

I doubt they can add all that capacity back in this last minute.

Also, adding extra flight to Asia as a whole is going to be a great disaster. Demand to rest of Asia is also down due to angst about the region. Japan I believe have the second most number of cases at the moment. The entire Asia is in panic mode. Work is telling people to stay away from the region. Not only will they not be able to redeploy that capacity to Asia, their other asian flying are problem in the dumpster fire right now.
 
AMollenhauer9
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:19 am

Just an anecdotal observation. Delta is running a 764 and an A333 on ATL-MSP tomorrow. Not a route that typically sees widebodies.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:23 am

tphuang wrote:
I doubt they can add all that capacity back in this last minute.

Also, adding extra flight to Asia as a whole is going to be a great disaster. Demand to rest of Asia is also down due to angst about the region. Japan I believe have the second most number of cases at the moment. The entire Asia is in panic mode. Work is telling people to stay away from the region. Not only will they not be able to redeploy that capacity to Asia, their other asian flying are problem in the dumpster fire right now.


I was afraid this was going to happen - media hysteria painting all of the East Asian countries with the same brush.

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Waterbomber2
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:20 am

tphuang wrote:
I doubt they can add all that capacity back in this last minute.

Also, adding extra flight to Asia as a whole is going to be a great disaster. Demand to rest of Asia is also down due to angst about the region. Japan I believe have the second most number of cases at the moment. The entire Asia is in panic mode. Work is telling people to stay away from the region. Not only will they not be able to redeploy that capacity to Asia, their other asian flying are problem in the dumpster fire right now.


It is very likely indeed that Asia will see reductions across the board.
Japan has the second most cases indeed, and the most locally transmitted cases outside of China, and yet aircraft from China are virtually landing every 15 minutes with more potential carriers, so it's inevitable that Japan will reach 3-digits within a week or so.

So yes, there will be relief for the MAX grounding but I also see major airlines deferring their widebody orders for a couple of years if this drags on.
We might see people adapting and changes in the flows, especially in the leisure department, with more TATL flying instead of TPAC.
For instance in China, it's already almost senseless to contain just the Hubei region when the whole country has hundreds of infected carriers, so they might seal the country and reopen to domestic air traffic.

Of course, if this becomes a pandemic thanks to the doors-wide-open policy of the EU and the U.S., we might see a global grounding.

The next week will be crucial for containment.
If we look at how the Britons were welcomed back arms wide open without protective equipment, I 'm also starting to doubt that these evacuation flights are a good idea.
 
Thunderbolt500
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:55 am

scbriml wrote:
Web500sjc wrote:
At this point the suspension is only a month or two.


I'll be very surprised if flights to China resume within two months, I expect the suspension to last much longer.

Sorted of like 737 max issue
 
Thunderbolt500
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:55 am

scbriml wrote:
Web500sjc wrote:
At this point the suspension is only a month or two.


I'll be very surprised if flights to China resume within two months, I expect the suspension to last much longer.

Sorted of like 737 max issue
 
Thunderbolt500
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sun Feb 02, 2020 3:58 am

chepos wrote:
CriticalPoint wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
I could see this triggering the main retirement wave of A330s and 777s.


No......come on why all the doom and gloom? It is two major cities and it’s a virus. It’ll get beat and the flying will return. We’re talking less than 10 WB aircraft a fleet. If this drags on and millions die In China then yes we will see retirements but more than likely you will see them redeployed.

This is temporary folks were talking 8 weeks.


Exactly, I mean these pandemics have happened before (more recently H1N1, SARS, etc). The way these things usually go, there is a collective hysteria, flights gets suspended, the situation/health crisis starts stabilizing and eventually people forget and they start traveling to affected areas again. This is the flavor of the week, so it is all people and the media talk about at the moment.


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Thunderbolt500
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:01 am

AMollenhauer9 wrote:
Just an anecdotal observation. Delta is running a 764 and an A333 on ATL-MSP tomorrow. Not a route that typically sees widebodies.

I have a concern are these planes sanitized good enough that they have no virus lurking anyone which could start more infection in the us
 
TMccrury
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:11 am

A friend of mine is an FO for DL and flies the A350. He said since the cancellations to China, flights are slim pickings and you take what you can get.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:21 am

TMccrury wrote:
A friend of mine is an FO for DL and flies the A350. He said since the cancellations to China, flights are slim pickings and you take what you can get.


Are any of the 350's used for TATL?
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TMccrury
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sun Feb 02, 2020 4:37 am

1989worstyear wrote:
TMccrury wrote:
A friend of mine is an FO for DL and flies the A350. He said since the cancellations to China, flights are slim pickings and you take what you can get.


Are any of the 350's used for TATL?


I don’t think so, but I’m not 100% certain on that.
 
DTWLAX
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sun Feb 02, 2020 5:08 am

1989worstyear wrote:
TMccrury wrote:
A friend of mine is an FO for DL and flies the A350. He said since the cancellations to China, flights are slim pickings and you take what you can get.


Are any of the 350's used for TATL?

I think DL flies one A350 DTW-AMS
 
tphuang
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Sun Feb 02, 2020 11:11 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I doubt they can add all that capacity back in this last minute.

Also, adding extra flight to Asia as a whole is going to be a great disaster. Demand to rest of Asia is also down due to angst about the region. Japan I believe have the second most number of cases at the moment. The entire Asia is in panic mode. Work is telling people to stay away from the region. Not only will they not be able to redeploy that capacity to Asia, their other asian flying are problem in the dumpster fire right now.


It is very likely indeed that Asia will see reductions across the board.
Japan has the second most cases indeed, and the most locally transmitted cases outside of China, and yet aircraft from China are virtually landing every 15 minutes with more potential carriers, so it's inevitable that Japan will reach 3-digits within a week or so.

So yes, there will be relief for the MAX grounding but I also see major airlines deferring their widebody orders for a couple of years if this drags on.
We might see people adapting and changes in the flows, especially in the leisure department, with more TATL flying instead of TPAC.
For instance in China, it's already almost senseless to contain just the Hubei region when the whole country has hundreds of infected carriers, so they might seal the country and reopen to domestic air traffic.

Of course, if this becomes a pandemic thanks to the doors-wide-open policy of the EU and the U.S., we might see a global grounding.

The next week will be crucial for containment.
If we look at how the Britons were welcomed back arms wide open without protective equipment, I 'm also starting to doubt that these evacuation flights are a good idea.


Even though in terms of severity, this is actually nothing compared to just the flu, but that's not how the public sees it

If you are east Asian, would you want to travel to ceetain countries where people might assume you carry the virus? Or will you just stay at home for a while?

One thing I would say is that Latin America vacations are quite desirable now given how far away they are from everyday lives.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:51 am

Does anybody know what LH is doing with their widebodies they usually fly to China, both from Frankfurt and from Munich?

Have they stored any aircraft (... the local planespotters are not that active right now due to the suboptimal weather...)?
 
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aeromoe
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:37 am

DTWLAX wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
TMccrury wrote:
A friend of mine is an FO for DL and flies the A350. He said since the cancellations to China, flights are slim pickings and you take what you can get.


Are any of the 350's used for TATL?

I think DL flies one A350 DTW-AMS


I was hanging out at AMS over the weekend and indeed I did see DL A350 each day I was there.
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Re: Widebody capital now that China suspended

Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:40 pm

In the immediate short-term, the aircraft are sitting idle, doing rolling short-term parking on hardstands at hubs.
For example, in DTW right now DL current has an A350 and A330 parked on the hardstand as these would typically be the aircraft operating to PEK and PVG.
They will just do rolling parking with the active fleet and swap-out the aircraft every day or two as necessary on other routes. Lots of slack in the schedule now.

No one is going to go and add a bunch of new routes or anything since its too close-in and too fluid a situation.

I would expect though there to be much more liberal upgauging from the hubs over the month of Feb & Mar on certain routes. Particularly around Presidents Day weekend, peak spring break periods, or IROP situations. They will need to have enough hours/cycles to keep crews current (and they are paying them regardless) so its likely that some of the hub-to-hub and Florida stuff may see upgauging on select 739/321/752/753 routes at peak times.

Its too close-in to do anything crazy since you would have no advanced bookings. Pulling ahead some planned maintenance may be feasible in some cases, but only so much as there is only so much labor/parts availability that can be pulled ahead to support as well. Same thing on pulling ahead cabin mods on other fleet types, its just not necessarily feasible with such short lead times.

Now if this drags on further this is where things could get interesting, particularly the more this creeps into peak summer. Then is possible you could see more up-gauging on TATL to take advantage of peak summer demand. Its too soon for any of that though.

Currently DL has an A350 on DTW-AMS, and this spring MSP & ATL also get an A350 to AMS.

When China does come back, it will be interesting to see if they bring back all flights at the same equipment/capacity, or if they temporarily suspend some routes either day-of-the-week, or outright and/or reduce to the smallest feasible gauge.

The whole goal here is mitigate cost exposure and seek to maximize revenue where feasible.
Frankly, with the way fares were in certain markets to China, I don't think they mind not flying loss-leader flights in the near-term (e.g., West Coast-China)

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