Om2
Topic Author
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:01 am

Another airline in Australia

Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:09 am

For all Australians out there, is their room for another domestic/international airline in Australia?
 
Qf648
Posts: 67
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:49 pm

Re: Another airline in Australia

Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:41 am

Hell no
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 12852
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Another airline in Australia

Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:56 am

It's a country with a population only slightly higher than the state of Florida... two major domestic groups, neither of which are all that profitable; plus a foreign airline right next door that acts as a de-facto third, and it's well served by the international community.

What niche would an additional airline exploit, in order to be anything but a money-pit?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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CostaDelSol90
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Aug 09, 2016 10:37 pm

Re: Another airline in Australia

Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:21 am

Qantas makes a billion dollars a year in profit, roughly...and Virgin Australia has anew CEO and is expected by most analysts to emerge from their turnaround pretty efficient and relatively profitable.
 
anstar
Posts: 3151
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2003 3:49 am

Re: Another airline in Australia

Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:29 am

There is room for another domestic carrier. Virgin are a pretty poor competitor to QF/JQ and is loss making. Its ripe for a new LCC entrant to come in. Virgin would likely go bust and Jetstar would be forced to be more lean... currently JQ is not exactly lean compared to other LCC's around the world.

Maybe Air Asia?
 
myki
Posts: 94
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:43 am

Re: Another airline in Australia

Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:26 am

anstar wrote:
There is room for another domestic carrier. Virgin are a pretty poor competitor to QF/JQ and is loss making. Its ripe for a new LCC entrant to come in. Virgin would likely go bust and Jetstar would be forced to be more lean... currently JQ is not exactly lean compared to other LCC's around the world.

Maybe Air Asia?

An established brand already flying to a few ports across the country, could ply some trunk routes just to connect to their international services. A chance it could work perhaps, not sure. Doesn't need to be hourly departures on MEL-SYD, just whatever connects to your international network ... and fill the seats with any domestic point to point passengers. Something they could expore anyway, or even Batik/Malindo.
 
cedarjet
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Re: Another airline in Australia

Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:48 am

I think an airline with half a dozen second hand high density A330s could run between SYD MEL BNE PER and maybe ADL with unbeatable CASM for leisure and VFR traffic, I know the market wants high frequency but four departures each day would offer enough choice especially if tickets were $50 each way. On a 400 seat A330-300 that’s $20k in revenue for an hour’s* flight, surely enough to make a profit?

* Let’s say $150 to Perth, $60k in revenue for a 3-4h flight
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
thevery
Posts: 34
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:45 pm

Re: Another airline in Australia

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:45 pm

cedarjet wrote:
I think an airline with half a dozen second hand high density A330s could run between SYD MEL BNE PER and maybe ADL with unbeatable CASM for leisure and VFR traffic, I know the market wants high frequency but four departures each day would offer enough choice especially if tickets were $50 each way. On a 400 seat A330-300 that’s $20k in revenue for an hour’s* flight, surely enough to make a profit?

* Let’s say $150 to Perth, $60k in revenue for a 3-4h flight

You'd better get 737-800 or A321 for best casm and revenue management. Also note that 738 cost per hour is about 5-5.5k USD plus leasing, so 5-hour trip is 25k USD and revenue is 186*150=28k USD and still have to pay for leasing and air/ground handling.
 
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SCFlyer
Posts: 396
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: Another airline in Australia

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:13 pm

myki wrote:
anstar wrote:
There is room for another domestic carrier. Virgin are a pretty poor competitor to QF/JQ and is loss making. Its ripe for a new LCC entrant to come in. Virgin would likely go bust and Jetstar would be forced to be more lean... currently JQ is not exactly lean compared to other LCC's around the world.

Maybe Air Asia?

An established brand already flying to a few ports across the country, could ply some trunk routes just to connect to their international services. A chance it could work perhaps, not sure. Doesn't need to be hourly departures on MEL-SYD, just whatever connects to your international network ... and fill the seats with any domestic point to point passengers. Something they could expore anyway, or even Batik/Malindo.


There's nothing stopping the likes of NZ or UA setting up shop here on a domestic-only Australian AOC. NZ is also under the "open skies" arrangement for AU/NZ.

Problem is that not even NZ are willing to set up shop, even though they are allowed to. Hence the QF codeshare arrangement in lieu of setting up their own services on an Australian AOC.
 
smi0006
Posts: 2470
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: Another airline in Australia

Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:13 pm

SCFlyer wrote:
myki wrote:
anstar wrote:
There is room for another domestic carrier. Virgin are a pretty poor competitor to QF/JQ and is loss making. Its ripe for a new LCC entrant to come in. Virgin would likely go bust and Jetstar would be forced to be more lean... currently JQ is not exactly lean compared to other LCC's around the world.

Maybe Air Asia?

An established brand already flying to a few ports across the country, could ply some trunk routes just to connect to their international services. A chance it could work perhaps, not sure. Doesn't need to be hourly departures on MEL-SYD, just whatever connects to your international network ... and fill the seats with any domestic point to point passengers. Something they could expore anyway, or even Batik/Malindo.


There's nothing stopping the likes of NZ or UA setting up shop here on a domestic-only Australian AOC. NZ is also under the "open skies" arrangement for AU/NZ.

Problem is that not even NZ are willing to set up shop, even though they are allowed to. Hence the QF codeshare arrangement in lieu of setting up their own services on an Australian AOC.


NZ would have been my only bet years ago, perhaps buying TTs 320s and using their suits to suit model. Feeding into the star network. However they could never have afforded it, and wouldn’t have been a popular move following AN.

Doubtful any other players could start, realistically QF would force them out of the market. QF/JQ could force VA out now - but better the devil you know and can control. VA suits QF needs as a competitor subordinate, and whilst they compete, QF is know the control a lot of the profitable pricing.

Hell AU can’t even support a new start regional carrier - was it JetGo? That recently went bust?
 
Kent350787
Posts: 1141
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: Another airline in Australia

Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:24 pm

cedarjet wrote:
I think an airline with half a dozen second hand high density A330s could run between SYD MEL BNE PER and maybe ADL with unbeatable CASM for leisure and VFR traffic, I know the market wants high frequency but four departures each day would offer enough choice especially if tickets were $50 each way. On a 400 seat A330-300 that’s $20k in revenue for an hour’s* flight, surely enough to make a profit?

* Let’s say $150 to Perth, $60k in revenue for a 3-4h flight


Do it with A300s and it sounds like Compass Mk1.

Impulse and Virgin, with Tiger to a lesser extent have tried to be interrupters. Virgin has the resources to pick up capacity with the death of Ansett, QF bought Impulse to create Jetstar, and Virgin took over Tiger. Rex has its regional prop link, and QF and Virgin have swallowed other regional operators.

Other niches are being filled by Alliance or contract flyers (Cobham etc).

Surely there is some opportunity on MEL-SYD-BNE, but you need to be well financed with a good product. OzJet tried to capture J pax but didn't have frequency or FF add-ons and was using 732s when the others were starting to introduce 738s
 
Charters737
Posts: 15
Joined: Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:59 am

Re: Another airline in Australia

Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:05 am

Looking at breeze model - they are using 2 aircraft types

1. Emb 195 from azul - almost an in house deal which sounds so cheap they are only going to fly them 5 hours a day & not every day

2.a220-300 which apparently have very low per seat costs so can fly thin & long routes which might not work with larger aircraft.

Did read a story about air nz getting some a220s which they could fly domestically in Australia
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7173
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Another airline in Australia

Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:47 am

[quote="Charters737"]Looking at breeze model - they are using 2 aircraft types

1. Emb 195 from azul - almost an in house deal which sounds so cheap they are only going to fly them 5 hours a day & not every day

2.a220-300 which apparently have very low per seat costs so can fly thin & long routes which might not work with larger aircraft.

Did read a story about air nz getting some a220s which they could fly domestically in Australia[/quote

A story about NZ getting A220s to run domestically in Australia? Absolutely no chance of either, what would NZ achieve? I agree with others that several years ago they might have looked at it and given it a good go but not now.
 
Charters737
Posts: 15
Joined: Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:59 am

Re: Another airline in Australia

Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:28 am

Nz might do many thin trans tasman routes that too thin for b738 or a320.

Nz could move into oz domestic space if either qf or va faulter . Remember qf were going under just a few years back. Their high costs are not good in a recession & coronavirus still seems to have a long way to play out
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7173
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Another airline in Australia

Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:30 am

Charters737 wrote:
Nz might do many thin trans tasman routes that too thin for b738 or a320.

Nz could move into oz domestic space if either qf or va faulter . Remember qf were going under just a few years back. Their high costs are not good in a recession & coronavirus still seems to have a long way to play out


NZ would probably rather misuse an A320 than add an additional type for a handful of routes.

Seriously NZ would rather build the AKL hub, the main reason for the QF codeshare is to the regional ports. There is no point even if QF which they won’t fail or VA which they could fail that NZ would fly the main trunk in Australia.

Yes the Coronavirus is a worry, hopefully only short term.
 
Charters737
Posts: 15
Joined: Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:59 am

Re: Another airline in Australia

Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:39 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Charters737 wrote:
Nz might do many thin trans tasman routes that too thin for b738 or a320.

Nz could move into oz domestic space if either qf or va faulter . Remember qf were going under just a few years back. Their high costs are not good in a recession & coronavirus still seems to have a long way to play out


NZ would probably rather misuse an A320 than add an additional type for a handful of routes.

Seriously NZ would rather build the AKL hub, the main reason for the QF codeshare is to the regional ports. There is no point even if QF which they won’t fail or VA which they could fail that NZ would fly the main trunk in Australia.

Yes the Coronavirus is a worry, hopefully only short term.
if QF or VA were to fail or shrink significantly (never say never-both have come close) Air NZ could swoop in very very quickly to fill the void.

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