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Of the US3, who's most likely to order the 777-8/9 (one day?)

Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:26 pm
by VC10er
I am fully aware that Delta, United and American have no plans to acquire either the new 777-8/9.

But, if we were to gaze many, many from today, which of the 3 would potentially order one or both?

This is all purely speculation, maybe the answer is ”never-ever” (?)

But if we were to consider (say 2030) which airline would you put a bet on? I could see UA and AA over DL.

If the 779 is the real 747 killer, UA is the airline who historically relied heavily on the 747, but I can also see AA to get just enough to fly their largest destinations. Essentially if they decide certain routes they justify a Global First? Or perhaps UA moves to Polaris Plus and offer a bigger more lavish seat to UHL’s (I get Global First is out of vogue for all but a handful of 5 Star airlines) but ”what was old may become new again!)

Re: Of the US3, who's most likely to order the 777-8/9 (one day?)

Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:28 pm
by RvA
All three, two out of three, one out of three or none I think. Hope that helps.

Re: Of the US3, who's most likely to order the 777-8/9 (one day?)

Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:28 pm
by SteelChair
UAL most likely imho, then AA, DAL least likely (they hate big, heavy airplanes, they have zero 777-300's).

Re: Of the US3, who's most likely to order the 777-8/9 (one day?)

Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:31 pm
by NYPECO
I think UA would have ordered them if not for the 77Ws which could be delivered sooner. I could definitely see them with the 777-8 or 9 later on.

Re: Of the US3, who's most likely to order the 777-8/9 (one day?)

Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:34 pm
by Erebus
At this time, I think that boat has sailed. But if by "one day" you mean when it is time for them to replace the 77W, it might be a toss up between the 778/9 and a next generation line up of A350neos.

Re: Of the US3, who's most likely to order the 777-8/9 (one day?)

Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:44 pm
by Antarius
SteelChair wrote:
UAL most likely imho, then AA, DAL least likely (they hate big, heavy airplanes, they have zero 777-300's).


DL has zero 77Ws because they went from 744s to a359s not because they "hate big airplanes".

Re: Of the US3, who's most likely to order the 777-8/9 (one day?)

Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:48 pm
by SteelChair
Antarius wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
UAL most likely imho, then AA, DAL least likely (they hate big, heavy airplanes, they have zero 777-300's).


DL has zero 77Ws because they went from 744s to a359s not because they "hate big airplanes".


The 359 is smaller than a 777-300ER.

Re: Of the US3, who's most likely to order the 777-8/9 (one day?)

Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:54 pm
by Max Q
SteelChair wrote:
UAL most likely imho, then AA, DAL least likely (they hate big, heavy airplanes, they have zero 777-300's).



AA has a substantial fleet of 777-300 aircraft

Re: Of the US3, who's most likely to order the 777-8/9 (one day?)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:49 am
by bfitzflyer
Actually because DL doesn't have anything larger than the A359, might be possible if they think they can make money with it like any of the 3 of them

Re: Of the US3, who's most likely to order the 777-8/9 (one day?)

Posted: Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:32 am
by VC10er
Of the US3, UA was the only airline in the US after Pan Am/TWA/NW that operated a large fleet of 747’s and for a long time until a few years ago.
I have often wondered “IF” their 744’s were not so old and troublesome, would they have held onto them and install Polaris seats? Difficult to imagine how they would have configured them?

But isn’t the new 777-9 very similar in passenger count to a 744?

I’m thinking 10 years from now, they would “perhaps/maybe” get some 779’s to fly side by side with the 77W’s until they wore out, or offload them to freight companies.

Also, the 778 is about the same size as a 77W but would perhaps give UA more range and fuel efficiency? Or, go A350-900 & 1000?

Perhaps the same for AA.

But UA doesn’t UA have more ULH routes than AA or DL? Or about the same?

But it seems like frequency rules, as well as flexibility, 77W down to 789 when needed.(?)

I don’t really know the point I’m trying to make, but between 10 years of UA (hopefully) making big gains in its reputation plus population growth, will one or more of the big US3 require larger WB’s again?

Also, I’d imagine that in 10 years, a new Polaris seat will be needed to keep up with whatever trend there is in 10 years.

Will the 778 have the longest legs of any other aircraft we know of today? NYC/SYD, NYC/SIN (without a nose to tail business seat?)