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Rossiya747
Topic Author
Posts: 322
Joined: Sat Dec 21, 2019 2:56 am

Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:34 pm

As Flybe has collapsed, a major part of the UK aviation sector has been lost, so who will take over? Loganair? Ryanair? British Airways? A new Virgin Connect?
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Flying-Tiger
Posts: 4045
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 1999 5:35 am

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:42 pm

Rossiya747 wrote:
As Flybe has collapsed, a major part of the UK aviation sector has been lost, so who will take over? Loganair? Ryanair? British Airways? A new Virgin Connect?


Noone, certainly not to full extend. Cherry picking of some routes - yes. Complete network - no.

And The likelyhood of a new investor stepping in just now to take over flybe in its current shape is close to - if not - zero. Too much pressure on the industry and no idea when the market will recover. And worse: to which level will it recover?

As sad as it may sound: many airports and regions will have to accept that connectivity has just gone down the drain, and that for a long-time, if not ever.
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.
 
f4f3a
Posts: 612
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Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:50 pm

What about virgin connect can they use stobart or someone to run some core roots ?
 
Insertnamehere
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Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:57 pm

The train.
 
Rossiya747
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Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:03 pm

Insertnamehere wrote:
The train.


How about Jersey?
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Rossiya747
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Posts: 322
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Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:04 pm

f4f3a wrote:
What about virgin connect can they use stobart or someone to run some core roots ?


FlyBe was Virgin Connect
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JerseyFlyer
Posts: 1536
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Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:07 pm

Rossiya747 wrote:
Insertnamehere wrote:
The train.


How about Jersey?


Some help from Blue Islands (SI) for pax stranded today

"Flybe’s franchise partner Blue Islands has since pledged to cover cancelled routes to and from Exeter and Birmingham today for free to help affected travellers."

And Easyjet has offered a costed solution:

"EasyJet is now also offering a 'rescue' service for affected customers, and is offering them a one-off fare of £65 on a service of their choice including a 15kg hold bag on presentation of their original Flybe booking reference."

https://www.bailiwickexpress.com/jsy/ne ... mD5BqieSM8
 
Liverpoola380
Posts: 236
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2012 12:19 pm

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:31 pm

I may be being cynical. I am sure Connect will emerge from the ashes and buy some of the Flybe fleet. I cant help but think it has been left to rot with a large fleet and debts while the government sort out APD
 
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CarbonFibre
Posts: 721
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Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:33 pm

BA announced last month a seasonal LHR-NQY service would commence in July. Perhaps this can be brought forward.
Last edited by CarbonFibre on Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Caluma350
Posts: 30
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Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:34 pm

f4f3a wrote:
What about virgin connect can they use stobart or someone to run some core roots ?


When FlyBe went bust so did the hope of the Virgin Connect. Many people I have spoken to in the industry (including a VS captain) have speculated that Virgin Atlantic wanted the LHR slots at Heathrow as part of this Stobart group consortium. As well as this, if and when the 3rd runway at Heathrow gets the go ahead it gives Virgin as a whole alot more leverage for being allocated the new slots.
 
Arion640
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Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:41 pm

Insertnamehere wrote:
The train.


If we had a proper high speed rail network 80% of the mainland UK flights probably wouldn’t be needed.
 
Arion640
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:42 pm

Liverpoola380 wrote:
I may be being cynical. I am sure Connect will emerge from the ashes and buy some of the Flybe fleet. I cant help but think it has been left to rot with a large fleet and debts while the government sort out APD


I agree. I think something will emerge. All the debts have gone away with the bust company.
 
EChid
Posts: 567
Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:00 am

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:17 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Insertnamehere wrote:
The train.


If we had a proper high speed rail network 80% of the mainland UK flights probably wouldn’t be needed.

Agreed.
 
FARmd90
Posts: 367
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:49 pm

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:34 pm

One semi off topic question. How many slots did FlyBe have at LHR?
 
Iluvtofly
Posts: 104
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:22 pm

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:48 pm

The UK have screwed themselves with ridiculous taxes imposed on air travel to the UK. The 40 years of on and off again LHR expansion proposals has been a national disaster..... with no end in site. People will just choose other alternatives. I wouldn't connect via LHR anymore. Such a shame. It used to be my #1 choice.
Flown - B707 727 737 747 757 767 777 787 A300 310 319 320 321 330 340 Concorde BAC111 TU154 VC10 F27 F28 F100 DC3 DC8 DC9 DC10 L1011 L188 DHC6 DHC7 DHC8 E135 E145 HS748 MD11 ST27 CV580 S340 ATR42 J31
 
gravytrain
Posts: 49
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:41 am

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:57 pm

LM are planning to take over the following routes:

Aberdeen to Belfast City, Birmingham, Belfast City and Jersey.

Edinburgh to Cardiff, Exeter, Manchester, Newquay, Southampton

Glasgow to Exeter, Southampton

Inverness to Belfast City, Birmingham, Jersey

Newcastle to Exeter, Southampton


The routes will be launched between 16 March and 6 July, and operate between once a week and daily.

The airline is creating new 100 posts to operate the new services and is seeking to recruit Flybe staff who lost their jobs when it went into administration last night.





Certainly striking whilst the iron is hot. Loganair have expanded rapidly last few years, maybe quicker than they could digest but not sure they could wait.
 
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FabDiva
Posts: 189
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:42 pm

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:52 pm

With Exeter I can see the likes of Aer Lingus Regional, Blue Islands, Cityhopper and Hop! giving thought to replacing the more popular Flybe routes from EXT. Maybe they'll time better for connections, certainly Flybe's EXT-DUB timings missed the US flights going out and with a late evening return wasn't convenient for the inbound US waves which arrived early AM.
 
SeanM1997
Posts: 422
Joined: Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:27 pm

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:58 pm

Eastern Airways are to launch:
Aberdeen - Birmingham
Southampton - Manchester
Southampton - Newcastle
 
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VS4ever
Posts: 2567
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Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:01 pm

I am impressed the likes of Logan and Eastern are jumping on this, however do they really have that much slack in their fleet that they can suddenly provide all this lift, I am not totally up on their fleet mechanics, so I would like to be proven wrong, it just strikes me as odd.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
SEU
Posts: 278
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:21 pm

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:04 pm

A few airlines to look at.

BACF has to look at the most profitable routes and make them their own. PAX will overpay right now for a reliable name flying the business routes around the UK. British airways as about as safe as they come from a big airline point of view.

Eastern - already a known name in the UK business traveller. However, I am not sure they have the fleet size or funds to really capitalise as much as BACF would.

Loganair - They have 19 ATRs on order. Perfect to take over these routes. Specially the scottish ones.

Then you have blue islands, stobart, virgin group etc.
 
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Revelation
Posts: 24364
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:11 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Insertnamehere wrote:
The train.

If we had a proper high speed rail network 80% of the mainland UK flights probably wouldn’t be needed.

One recent thread said HS2 is spending GBP 100B or so to do 100 miles or so between LON and BHM.

Your proper high speed rail network is going to be staggeringly expensive.

It'd be a lot cheaper to just refloat a subsidized Flybe.

Now that UK is not in the EU, no need to worry about anti subsidy issues for a domestic airline.

Pick your poison, there's no free lunch.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
seansasLCY
Posts: 1097
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2007 5:25 am

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:20 pm

VS4ever wrote:
I am impressed the likes of Logan and Eastern are jumping on this, however do they really have that much slack in their fleet that they can suddenly provide all this lift, I am not totally up on their fleet mechanics, so I would like to be proven wrong, it just strikes me as odd.


Loganair are in the process of adding ATRs so they can probably delay retiring older planes to launch the new routes.

Eastern operate a lot of charters so always have planes around not doing much plus were planning to add more anyway.
 
SueD
Posts: 260
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Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:43 pm

Revelation HS2 rail is far more complicated -it’s a vital part of nations longer term planning into the second quarter of the century and beyond and the strategy to reduce fossil fuel dependency on key corridors. Unlike the US the UK has cross party policy to remove fossil fuelled vehicles from the roads starting just 15 to 20 years from now. As we can only produce enough electricity to service around a third of the current road vehicles with projected generation capacity.Rail demand is expected to explode .

This is however irrelevant to the current domestic air capacity loss overnight
 
Arion640
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:51 pm

Revelation wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Insertnamehere wrote:
The train.

If we had a proper high speed rail network 80% of the mainland UK flights probably wouldn’t be needed.

One recent thread said HS2 is spending GBP 100B or so to do 100 miles or so between LON and BHM.

Your proper high speed rail network is going to be staggeringly expensive.

It'd be a lot cheaper to just refloat a subsidized Flybe.

Now that UK is not in the EU, no need to worry about anti subsidy issues for a domestic airline.

Pick your poison, there's no free lunch.


I agree. That’s why it should of been done 20 years ago.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:09 pm

SueD wrote:
Revelation HS2 rail is far more complicated -it’s a vital part of nations longer term planning into the second quarter of the century and beyond and the strategy to reduce fossil fuel dependency on key corridors. Unlike the US the UK has cross party policy to remove fossil fuelled vehicles from the roads starting just 15 to 20 years from now. As we can only produce enough electricity to service around a third of the current road vehicles with projected generation capacity.Rail demand is expected to explode .

Thanks for the informative post. I didn't know it had such bi-partisan support. Over here in the US the conservative elements aren't exactly on board with such policies.

However it seems it will take many HS2s to replace the network that Flybe service pretty efficiently with turbo props, and if people aren't willing to pay the price for air to all these different locations it's hard to see them spending what it will take to fund an equivalent high speed rail network.

SueD wrote:
This is however irrelevant to the current domestic air capacity loss overnight

That's true. I'll note it wasn't me who injected the notion of using non-existing high speed rail networks to solve the loss of Flybe.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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FabDiva
Posts: 189
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Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:34 pm

Should add the £100bn was for the complete HS2 network to Manchester and Leeds including stations and trains. The rebuild of Euston into a double deck 400m station is going to be one of the most expensive parts, hence phase 1 only including 4 stations (Birmingham City, Birmingham Airport, Old Oak Common (for Heathrow) and Euston), Phase 2 would add Manchester City, Manchester Airport, Toton for Nottingham/Derby, Sheffield and Leeds across two 100 mile branches.

It's still expensive and the complete network wouldn't be ready until 2040 (Phase 1 to Birmingham is expected to be operational by the end of the decade)
 
dirk88
Posts: 67
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Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:23 pm

Anyone knows what will happen with the Amsterdam slots?
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:28 pm

dirk88 wrote:
Anyone knows what will happen with the Amsterdam slots?


They'll be returned to the slot coordinator. That means in the not too far future they'll be reassigned.

Slots at Amsterdam are not allowed to be sold between airlines. If an airline pulls out of Amsterdam they are to return their slots.
 
alan3
Posts: 422
Joined: Sat Apr 12, 2014 6:13 am

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:50 pm

As mentioned above Loganair and Eastern already announcing taking over some Flybe routes. But I didn't see any links above so here are some links

News Article:

Loganair: https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... be-routes/
Eastern: https://www.businesstraveller.com/busin ... be-routes/

From airline website

Loganair: https://www.loganair.co.uk/flybe-routes ... y-loganair
Eastern: https://www.easternairways.com/news/69/ ... s-3-routes


I don't think there is any more room for any more regional British carriers in this environment.
 
Toinou
Posts: 277
Joined: Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:21 am

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:21 am

Revelation wrote:
Now that UK is not in the EU, no need to worry about anti subsidy issues for a domestic airline.


They may still be some issues with the EU depending of the agreement that they are negotiating I guess.
 
PlymSpotter
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Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:23 pm

Revelation wrote:
Now that UK is not in the EU, no need to worry about anti subsidy issues for a domestic airline.


When it comes to legislation around this, nothing has changed and won't until the end of this year at the earliest - subsidies and financial aid are still not permitted.
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
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Revelation
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Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:29 pm

PlymSpotter wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Now that UK is not in the EU, no need to worry about anti subsidy issues for a domestic airline.

When it comes to legislation around this, nothing has changed and won't until the end of this year at the earliest - subsidies and financial aid are still not permitted.

I suppose, but if Alitalia can get away with what it is getting away with, why worry about what the EU might do at some point in the future? Surely UK could say "it's in our vital national interest that business executives can fly from Birmingham to Norwich, piss off!"?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
bluefrog
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:22 am

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:56 pm

just looked at some of loganairs new routes to MAN surely 4 daily flights to/ from ABZ and EDI are to much
 
David_itl
Posts: 6406
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2001 7:39 am

Re: Who will replace Flybe?

Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:08 am

ABZ-MAN around 15000 passengers a month (I believe BE were doing up to 6 flights a day Mon-Frr), EDI-MAN around 7000 passengers a month (rt was 3 flights a day on BE)

Quick estimate loads around 75% or 80% (based on 6 daily Mon-Fri, 1 on Sat, 2 on Sun for ABZ and 60% for 3 daily Mon-Fri, 1 on Sat, 2 on Sun for EDI.

The big "holes" for MAN are BHD (16000 passengers a month) and NQY + EXT with around 10000 passengers a month each,

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