777-500er
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Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:07 pm

With drastic capacity-cut across all major airlines and plans for planes to be parked, it seems that older 747s will be the first to be retired. Will this be a quick end for 747s at QF, LH, BA and KLM? Will 747-8i follow thereafter?
 
UA444
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:15 pm

It’s the 737 MAX that’s taking it on the chin more than anything
 
Dominion301
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:17 pm

COVID-19 is likely going to be a temporary shock that will last a few months as was the case with SARS in 2003. I'd expect traffic will pick up to 'normal' levels after that, meaning, they will likely take this time to reduce utilization of owned aircraft. Good opportunity for healthy airlines to accelerate any planned refurbs.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:19 pm

777-500er wrote:
With drastic capacity-cut across all major airlines and plans for planes to be parked, it seems that older 747s will be the first to be retired. Will this be a quick end for 747s at QF, LH, BA and KLM? Will 747-8i follow thereafter?

First? VS has just retired A340 earlier than planned including A340-600 only around for 18 years while still running older 744s, QF is only running 2 of 12 A380s and LH is said to be parking all of its A380s while saying nothing about 744/748 so far. So, no, not first. Second or third perhaps, but not first.
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Revelation
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:21 pm

UA444 wrote:
It’s the 737 MAX that’s taking it on the chin more than anything

Not really, MAX was already parked before CV. Some threads here suggest CV is reducing the pressure on MAX to RTS.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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georgiabill
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:30 pm

I would say as most 744'S are most likely paid off and Saudi's increasing oil production meaning cheaper fuel, if anything means airlines might be considering hanging on to airframes with cycles left on the frames and defer deliveries of new aircraft..
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:36 pm

georgiabill wrote:
I would say as most 744'S are most likely paid off and Saudi's increasing oil production meaning cheaper fuel, if anything means airlines might be considering hanging on to airframes with cycles left on the frames and defer deliveries of new aircraft..


That's the direction of thinking I was headed. Operating costs are low - take them to end of life or the next heavy check, and reassess.
 
ewt340
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:38 pm

Probably. And some B777-300ER as well. Larger planes have the largest risk.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:44 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
georgiabill wrote:
I would say as most 744'S are most likely paid off and Saudi's increasing oil production meaning cheaper fuel, if anything means airlines might be considering hanging on to airframes with cycles left on the frames and defer deliveries of new aircraft..


That's the direction of thinking I was headed. Operating costs are low - take them to end of life or the next heavy check, and reassess.

That seems to be LH's and QF's approach.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:34 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Probably. And some B777-300ER as well. Larger planes have the largest risk.


However keep in mind the difference between retired and parked. A retired aircraft will never fly again, however most aircraft that are currently parked due to the Corona outbreak will likely fly again when it's all over. The overcapacity won't last.

So no, it won't be the end. Just a temporary break.
 
ewt340
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:59 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Probably. And some B777-300ER as well. Larger planes have the largest risk.


However keep in mind the difference between retired and parked. A retired aircraft will never fly again, however most aircraft that are currently parked due to the Corona outbreak will likely fly again when it's all over. The overcapacity won't last.

So no, it won't be the end. Just a temporary break.


The problem is the fact that we are moving more and more towards to P2P points every single day. While the traditional hub still growing, it's not as fast as before. The growth now goes to other sections of the market.

It would be the end of B747 not just because of the virus itself. But because the demand for such large aircraft is slowing down. The virus is just a cherry on top.
 
blandy62
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:50 am

I guess Coronavirus might accelerate the retirement of the 744. But most of the are due to retirement in the next 2 years anyway. I think it is more if it will have an effect on the 748
 
Flanker7
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:58 am

I did for KLM, all remaining 747 are retired by the end of March.
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PlymSpotter
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:03 pm

This situation isn't really comparable to SARS, or H1N1 - this is much, much bigger, and the affects are going to last well into next year.

We are seeing airlines accelerate the retirement of aircraft which were due to be retired within the next year or so - KL with the 744s, TS with the A310, AA with the 752 and 763 and most likely other examples too. This alone tells you how much of an impact the aviation industry expects this to have, things aren't going to get back to normal any time soon.
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FriscoHeavy
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:47 pm

PlymSpotter wrote:
This situation isn't really comparable to SARS, or H1N1 - this is much, much bigger, and the affects are going to last well into next year.

We are seeing airlines accelerate the retirement of aircraft which were due to be retired within the next year or so - KL with the 744s, TS with the A310, AA with the 752 and 763 and most likely other examples too. This alone tells you how much of an impact the aviation industry expects this to have, things aren't going to get back to normal any time soon.


You don’t know long the effects will last. No one does. While this is your belief and one I disagree with, it’s certainly not fact. In fact, a long way from it.

Next time, state something as such as your opinion and guess, not as a fact.
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SQ789
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:40 pm

777-500er wrote:
With drastic capacity-cut across all major airlines and plans for planes to be parked, it seems that older 747s will be the first to be retired. Will this be a quick end for 747s at QF, LH, BA and KLM? Will 747-8i follow thereafter?

As for the 744, they will retire first. The 748 will be on the exception list. Only the 744 will be retired.
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DocLightning
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:34 am

Dominion301 wrote:
COVID-19 is likely going to be a temporary shock that will last a few months as was the case with SARS in 2003.


I suspect it will last a lot longer than a few months.
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blacksoviet
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:45 am

There will always be 747 Classics flying as freighters in Europe and Central Asia.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:58 am

blacksoviet wrote:
There will always be 747 Classics flying as freighters in Europe and Central Asia.


I haven't seen any flyable 747-100/200/300s for over 5 years of flying freight in Europe and Asia. They are pretty much gone now.
 
asr0dzjq
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:55 pm

VSMUT wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
There will always be 747 Classics flying as freighters in Europe and Central Asia.


I haven't seen any flyable 747-100/200/300s for over 5 years of flying freight in Europe and Asia. They are pretty much gone now.

4L-GEL and 4L-GEM beg to differ.
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VSMUT
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:56 pm

asr0dzjq wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
There will always be 747 Classics flying as freighters in Europe and Central Asia.


I haven't seen any flyable 747-100/200/300s for over 5 years of flying freight in Europe and Asia. They are pretty much gone now.

4L-GEL and 4L-GEM beg to differ.


A total of 2 begs to differ.
 
blacksoviet
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:23 pm

VSMUT wrote:
asr0dzjq wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

I haven't seen any flyable 747-100/200/300s for over 5 years of flying freight in Europe and Asia. They are pretty much gone now.

4L-GEL and 4L-GEM beg to differ.


A total of 2 begs to differ.

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noviorbis77
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:28 pm

The numbers may reduce but there will be plenty of freighters, AF1 and the 748i will be around for quite a while yet.

Isn’t the A380 due to leave the LH fleet before the 748s?
 
PlymSpotter
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Re: Will the Coronavirus be the end for the 747?

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:54 pm

FriscoHeavy wrote:
PlymSpotter wrote:
This situation isn't really comparable to SARS, or H1N1 - this is much, much bigger, and the affects are going to last well into next year.

We are seeing airlines accelerate the retirement of aircraft which were due to be retired within the next year or so - KL with the 744s, TS with the A310, AA with the 752 and 763 and most likely other examples too. This alone tells you how much of an impact the aviation industry expects this to have, things aren't going to get back to normal any time soon.


You don’t know long the effects will last. No one does. While this is your belief and one I disagree with, it’s certainly not fact. In fact, a long way from it.

Next time, state something as such as your opinion and guess, not as a fact.


I think you need to chill out a little and realise the enormity of what we are unfortunately encountering.

However, as you question my thoughts, lets dig a little deeper into the facts behind my points...

Firstly - 'this is bigger than SARS or H1N1' This one *should* be completely self evident and established as fact by now but, just to ground it for you, SARS infected 8098 people and killed 774 (Source: NHS / WHO). This resulted in a six month downturn in air travel, wiping 39 billion RPKs and 8% of total annual capacity from airlines in the APAC region (Source: IATA). H1N1 was far more prevalent and infected something like 1.4bn people, but with a death rate of around 0.02% the reaction wasn't so severe, with demand for air travel dropping by around 11% at worst (source: IATA). Meanwhile, at the last count, the current Coronavirus has infected 167,675 people and killed 6,456. In the process, whole countries are effectively shutting down their international flight connections to 'self isolate' their populations, and are significantly reducing domestic flights. So yes, it's more than reasonable to consider it a fact that this is a much, much worse situation.

The affects are going to last well into next year. It's generally accepted that it took the airline industry a good three years to recover from the horrific events of 9/11, which precipitated a drop in revenue of 7%, or some $23bn (Source: IATA). Some time ago (1-2 weeks) I read an interview with de Junerac, who suggested that airlines could lose up to $113bn in a worst case Covid-19 scenario. But, with developments rapidly worsening last week, industry experts now expect losses to be significantly greater - on Friday BA's Cruz commented that the airline industry was experiencing a crisis far worse than SARS or 9/11 had been. So yes, sure, for pedantry's sake we don't know *precisely* how long this situation will last but, right now, the facts we do have indicate that it's simply not credible to argue everything will be completely back to normal in just 9 months time.

We are seeing airlines accelerate the retirement of aircraft This is an established fact and shouldn't really be up for debate - the retirements I've mentioned have been confirmed by the airlines themselves and well publicised.

Things aren't going to get back to normal any time soon There should be enough detail above to support this assertion. But to reiterate, the general consensus within the travel industry is that this situation is now completely unprecedented - multiple companies across all sectors have stated that demand for future travel is 'non existent'. I feel terribly for all those whose jobs are either already lost or under threat and I wish the industry a speedy recovery, but the facts and precedent tell us this will not happen overnight - there is unfortunately going to be a sustained level of hardship for some time to come.

Unfortunately, these are the facts of the current situation, not just my beliefs or guesses.
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