Thunderbolt500
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Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:36 pm

I mean look at the crash of air traffic in a week or two. I still see flight going across the noth Atlantic, I thought they were banned for now this was Saturday night. What happened to the world this looks way worse than 911.
 
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enilria
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:44 pm

The better compare is World War 2.
No it will not be the same, but the question is how different on the other side.
 
afcjets
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:47 pm

I think we will see lower frequencies on larger aircraft. This needs to happen anyway IMO.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:48 pm

Bankruptcy, mergers and government bail outs. I doubt any airline can survive this by itself. Qantas has stated it is survival of the fittest.

The manufacturers will also be hit hard. The 777X will suffer, it could not have worse timing. Capacity is usually reduced at the large end. More than half of the global A380 fleet is now parked.

The A330NEO will suffer as Airbus will have to prioritise the A350 with not enough orders for both.

Good news for the 737MAX is that airlines will not need the capacity and they will not rush out to buy the A320NEO
 
afcjets
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:54 pm

afcjets wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Bankruptcy, mergers and government bail outs. I doubt any airline can survive this by itself. Qantas has stated it is survival of the fittest.


Frontier has an advantage in that they have experience in always changing their network. They might actually see an opportunity here.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:04 pm

The American people will allow Cabotage. Meaning they will gladly permit foreigners and foreign airlines to fly US Domestic routes now. Yes cabotage is most decidedly off the table now.

Actually are there any cabotage routes still in operation at the moment within the US?
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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Dahlgardo
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:12 pm

Thunderbolt500 wrote:
I mean look at the crash of air traffic in a week or two. I still see flight going across the noth Atlantic, I thought they were banned for now this was Saturday night. What happened to the world this looks way worse than 911.


It probably depends on how fast a cure and/or vaccine will be made.
If that drags on for years and this virus keeps popping up, people will tend to avoid mass transportation and that will have a massive impact.

For good info about virus pandemics watch this conversation with Michael Osterholm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw&list=

There's a gigantic need to be prepared for these viruses in terms of research into vaccines, as they will keep appearing again and again.
Last time it was SARS, but was luckily not as contagious as covid19.

I think many airlines will collapse the next months, and we will see an acceleration of aircraft retirements, and deferral/canx of orders.
leave your nines at home and bring your skills to the battle
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:24 pm

No.

This is the end of this era.

Where we go from here is anybodys guess
 
Arion640
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:30 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
The American people will allow Cabotage. Meaning they will gladly permit foreigners and foreign airlines to fly US Domestic routes now. Yes cabotage is most decidedly off the table now.

Actually are there any cabotage routes still in operation at the moment within the US?


Should of happened years ago anyway. The consumer would benefit while creating jobs and growth.
1973-2020
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:36 pm

Arion640 wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
The American people will allow Cabotage. Meaning they will gladly permit foreigners and foreign airlines to fly US Domestic routes now. Yes cabotage is most decidedly off the table now.

Actually are there any cabotage routes still in operation at the moment within the US?


Should of happened years ago anyway. The consumer would benefit while creating jobs and growth.


You obviously are NOT getting it!

There WILL NEVER be cabotage in the US after this disaster we are experiencing.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:36 pm

Here is the issue. This has little to do with the virus and everything to do with the hysteria it created. The health crisis will be over long before the economic one is. Im not even remotely scared of the virus itself, Im horrified of the hysteria pandemic its created. Its destroying the economy, making people act stupid, and our industry is in the toilet.

Looking at the statistics of where new cases are reported, this virus will more than likely be seasonal. It seems to thrive in cold dry places and is much harder to spread in hot humid places. So the Northern Hemisphere will probably get a reprieve of sorts in a month or two but it will probably start to pop up further in the Southern Hemisphere. Then of course when it gets colder here in October/November, it will probably come back.

Going back to how this will change things, I dont think it will impact the domestic market at all long term. I think we will see a decrease in demand to Europe and Asia. Latin America and Africa havent really been impacted that much so whether or not they will be impacted will depend on how long this goes on.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:41 pm

Hysteria and economy is going to take awhile and then next fall / winter everyone is going to be looking over their shoulder for real and perceived threat of this boogeyman.

Regardless of happens over the next few months, the fear of pandemic is going to be like the fear of terrorism was post-9/11 for the next several years.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:42 pm

Thunderbolt500 wrote:
I mean look at the crash of air traffic in a week or two. I still see flight going across the noth Atlantic, I thought they were banned for now this was Saturday night. What happened to the world this looks way worse than 911.

Granted this is anecdotal, but I haven't noticed a drop in traffic counts yet at all. On the contrary, my facility had the most operations since Dec. 1 (the Sunday after Thanksgiving), and the numbers were consistent with what we typically see during a busy summer day. That isn't to say traffic counts won't drop, because they most assuredly will, but for now it seems that nothing has really changed, at least on the east coast. I do wonder how full those airplanes actually are though.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:47 pm

A consensus of what Washington State, first to get hit in the US, is that extreme measures are needed for 8 weeks which can pretty well stop the spread of the virus. Then things can ramp up. Public Health procedures will be in place to monitor for symptoms, rapidly test, isolate workers only as needed. It is hard, grandstanding can be a horrible impediment to doing things right. U pf WA medical teams made an online forum yesterday (or Friday) outlining how they are going to do all of this so staffing will not suffer. Everything from patient care to keeping workers aged parents safe and ensuring day care for children.

It is a big problem, but solvable. Airlines/Boeing etc. should/will be doing the same for their staffing. Customers will be coming back slowly.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:31 pm

This really isn't the place to be debating the current pandemic versus other afflictions. That's why the Non Aviation Forum exists, so please take that discussion to the appropriate place.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:51 pm

Airlines recovered from 911, they will recover from this cataclysmic event. I doubt there is any scope for more consolidation in the US.

My suggestion to governments is to follow China, not India. China gives more route subsidies that any other country in the world, barring city-state owned airlines. There is no sign of any guilt even when subsidies are taboo.

If your airlines are in trouble bailout onetime with a strong booster shot and get over with. Don't feel shame in helping your own corporations in trouble. There is no award for letting your industry go down.

Don't put the airline on a drip and don't debate for a decade. This approach never works. India/AI is the worst way to approach an airline in trouble.
 
goosebayguy
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:57 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
.

Good news for the 737MAX is that airlines will not need the capacity and they will not rush out to buy the A320NEO


They will be cancelling their MAX orders and getting their deposits back as they need the cash to survive.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:13 pm

Might be good for private jet builders.
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:39 pm

The American people will allow Cabotage. Meaning they will gladly permit foreigners and foreign airlines to fly US Domestic routes now. Yes cabotage is most decidedly off the table now.

Why? If domestic airlines are hit hard, as it appears is happening, then why would foreign airlines be allowed in?
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:20 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
The American people will allow Cabotage. Meaning they will gladly permit foreigners and foreign airlines to fly US Domestic routes now. Yes cabotage is most decidedly off the table now.

Actually are there any cabotage routes still in operation at the moment within the US?


I absolutely disagree with that.

If you want to protect your national airlines, the last thing you need is foreign competition. So cabotage is out of the question, it would only bring the national airlines in trouble.

Sure, in a healthy economy you need competition but this is an extraordinary situation.
 
F9Animal
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:09 pm

There is no doubt there will be failures. But... After the dust settles, those that survive will bounce back. Then comes the need to put the cheeks in the seats. If anyone should know, this industry is one of the most vulenrable in any world crisis. The airlines that have put away for rainy days will be okay.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
Cedar
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:57 am

Everything will be fine, airlines can weather the storm a lot better than the past, there will not be a drastic change like you think - There are weak airlines prior to this who were not in the best financial position. However, this will blow over in a few months. It is a temporary blip in the economy/air travel.

Airlines understand more & have learned from the past. Their ability to adapt to macro-economic changes is substantially better. Large cash reserves, better managed debt, quicker decisions & implementation of change, etc. etc.

These guys have been through the ringer a few times and know how to handle it. Just look how quickly decisions were made by the big airlines. It was nearly instant.

The bounce back will be as drastic as the hit. Wait for it.....

Cedar
 
SCQ83
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:35 am

enilria wrote:
The better compare is World War 2.
No it will not be the same, but the question is how different on the other side.


I think it will be a loooong recovery if it ever recovers.

Something like Japan after the 1990s bubble or Spain after 2008. It took many years to get to pre-crisis numbers. That coupled with improvements in home working, more ecological sensibility (fewer planes). This is a shock more than a crisis, so the war is a better comparison. With everybody under a quarantine (and at some point over the next few days the US will get to that point), this will affect everybody directly. This is not 2008 economic crisis where 80-90% of the population didn't change their lifestyle (other than maybe saving a bit more just in case they are fired).
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:53 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
The American people will allow Cabotage. Meaning they will gladly permit foreigners and foreign airlines to fly US Domestic routes now...


I absolutely disagree with that.

If you want to protect your national airlines, the last thing you need is foreign competition. So cabotage is out of the question, it would only bring the national airlines in trouble.

Sure, in a healthy economy you need competition but this is an extraordinary situation.


Obviously I was being facetious. I agree wit you. Cabotage is most decidedly off the table now.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
RexBanner
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:27 pm

This will be a lot less of a shock than people think. There’ll be a few airlines that fall by the wayside but ultimately it’ll get up and running again, it always does. Don’t misjudge the speed of the recovery, after 9/11 people were physically scared stiff to get on an aircraft after seeing four aircraft simultaneously hijacked and flown into buildings. That’s not the case here, there’ll be pent up demand as long as the money exists to fund it. That’s the question.
 
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Lingon
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:53 am

RexBanner wrote:
This will be a lot less of a shock than people think. There’ll be a few airlines that fall by the wayside but ultimately it’ll get up and running again, it always does. Don’t misjudge the speed of the recovery, after 9/11 people were physically scared stiff to get on an aircraft after seeing four aircraft simultaneously hijacked and flown into buildings. That’s not the case here, there’ll be pent up demand as long as the money exists to fund it. That’s the question.


I think this depends on how long this will last and how much help companies in trouble will get. If too many companies go belly up, it will affect the general demand on the market and we will see a "real" recession (the momentary recession right now is another thing). Travel and tourism sectors have a hard time right now and this will spread. Airlines folding => manufacturers get problems => suppliers to the manufacturers get problems etc.
If this will pass relatively quickly and government support has kept companies afloat, then we will see a swift bounce back. After all, this is not a financial crisis to begin with (unlike 2008). But if this would last a year, it will be devastating. So it is really hard to tell.
Personally, I'm fairly optimistic and I believe in the bounce back. Airbus and Boeing will survive, we will see lots of flights again. Airlines will need some life support in the mean time, though.
 
PlymSpotter
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:34 am

RexBanner wrote:
Don’t misjudge the speed of the recovery, after 9/11 people were physically scared stiff to get on an aircraft after seeing four aircraft simultaneously hijacked and flown into buildings. That’s not the case here, there’ll be pent up demand as long as the money exists to fund it. That’s the question.


I'm not sure that comparison really works, in the way you intend.

After 9/11 measures were rapidly put in place to ease the travelling public's fears, and prevent such an atrocity from happening again. But the recovery still took a good three years - some economists say nearer to five. This is now a more significant event on a global scale, where people are physically scared to get on any public transport, let alone aircraft. There will be some pent up demand, but there will also be residual fear of the event recurring - that will last until complete global eradication has been achieved, and then some.
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
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LH748
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:42 pm

Nothing will be the same again.
A vast majority of businesses we know will be gone in a few weeks/months as governments cannot support all. I expect at least 90% of all airlines to die and that the few remaining airlines will only fly essential routes. There won't be any leisure traffic again. There won't be any vacations in foreign places ever again. It's my last day in the US and I'm flying back to Germany tomorrow. I do not expect to ever be able to come to this country again. I will miss traveling and hope to be able to cope with the limitations some day. I had the privilege of seeing some parts of the world and I pity everyone who won't get the chance anymore.
Stay safe, stay healthy!
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Coal
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:35 am

LH748 wrote:
Nothing will be the same again.
A vast majority of businesses we know will be gone in a few weeks/months as governments cannot support all. I expect at least 90% of all airlines to die and that the few remaining airlines will only fly essential routes. There won't be any leisure traffic again. There won't be any vacations in foreign places ever again. It's my last day in the US and I'm flying back to Germany tomorrow. I do not expect to ever be able to come to this country again. I will miss traveling and hope to be able to cope with the limitations some day. I had the privilege of seeing some parts of the world and I pity everyone who won't get the chance anymore.
Stay safe, stay healthy!

Lol. Stop this nonsense. Don't be stupid.
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RexBanner
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:04 am

PlymSpotter wrote:
people are physically scared to get on any public transport, let alone aircraft.


Seen the London Underground recently? It’s still packed, no change whatsoever. Well stations are closing as I speak but that doesn’t indicate the public willingness to travel on public transport, they’re closing because of a government directive.
 
PlymSpotter
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Re: Will the world of airlines ever be the same

Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:33 pm

RexBanner wrote:
PlymSpotter wrote:
people are physically scared to get on any public transport, let alone aircraft.


Seen the London Underground recently? It’s still packed, no change whatsoever. Well stations are closing as I speak but that doesn’t indicate the public willingness to travel on public transport, they’re closing because of a government directive.


Yes, actually, and no it isn't remotely still the same.

I've travelled on it in the last week and have friends who still are travelling on it daily. In fact one of my friends sent me some pictures of his commute yesterday - in the morning rush hour he had a whole train carriage (Thameslink) to himself up into London, then three other people in his carriage on the Victoria line. I've done that daily myself, those numbers are insane.
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...

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