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richierich
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What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:38 am

What will be the lasting effects of the worldwide pandemic on the aviation industry?

The Coronavirus thread is now into Part II and has thousands of posts as I write this...it's quickly becoming one of the largest threads ever on this site. I wanted this to be its own topic and not part of the mega-topic.

I'm interested in hearing what peoples' thoughts are on the aviation industry a year from now, five years from now, etc.. Airlines that survive this are bound to be different, but what, if anything, will change?NOTE: I'm not looking for specifics such as airline XYZ won't be here or this airline and that airline may merge...I'll leave that for the other thread...but will there be major changes or trends away from business travel, for example? Companies all over the globe are faced with a new reality: conducting business with their employees at home. Meetings and conferences that might have been done face to face are now going to be done via teleconferencing. Does this mean the end of interpersonal gatherings as we knew them? Will airports and airlines pay more attention to cleaning their planes going forward? Or will things revert to how they were? What will airlines do differently with their finances to prepare for another catastrophic virus one day (if they can?)

I don't need to tell anybody connected to this industry how dire of a situation it is for all airlines around the world. The weak may not survive, some strong may not even survive if this goes on for months and months or is followed by a dramatic global recession. It's unlike anything we have ever seen before in our lifetimes, and for better or for worse will likely reshape the industry. But what will that look like? What will be significantly different as this gets put behind us?

I want to end not with another question but with a wish for everybody to stay safe, stay strong, remain upbeat and vigilant, and do the best job you can do under any given circumstances. Know that no matter what, we will get through this. Prayers that it all returns to 'normal' soon...
Last edited by SQ22 on Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Title updated after merging threads
None shall pass!!!!
 
jetmatt777
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:40 am

This is really like asking what the final result of 9/11 will be before the airplanes even hit the towers. This is unprecedented and uncharted territory. The dust from this pandemic needs to settle a bit before we even have a chance of guessing what is in store for the aviation industry...
 
stlgph
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:42 am

One minor change - in the grand scheme of things - longer turn times as crews will probably have to go through after every flight and spray down and wipe every seat, armrest, tray table, the overhead bins ... you name it.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
Silver1SWA
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:45 am

I keep telling myself this is only temporary. It’s only temporary. One can hope, right? Heh.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
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enilria
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:57 am

If you have a fever you won’t be able to fly. And the airlines will have to adjust ticketing flexibility to accommodate that.

I would expect every airport to have those ceiling mounted temp scanners like they have in Asia.
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:06 am

I'm inclined to agree with enilria on the idea of temperature checks everywhere to prevent the feverish from flying. There might also be rules around prolonged coughing

I'm wondering as well if some countries might pass laws mandating all flights cease immediately once there is an outbreak of a notifiable disease withing 100 km of an airport
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:09 am

The longer this goes on, the more working from home will be normalized. Rest assured that companies large and small, are using this to study the cost/benefit of home-based work (in terms of capital, time, logistics, productivity, etc).

That, combined with the quantum leap in e-commerce since 2001, is likely to have a lasting impact on corporate travel policies.

Thus, anyone believing this is only temporary..... is unfortunately self deluding. :( :(
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
ShinyAndChrome
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:11 am

Medium-term social distancing will provide companies ample first hand experience as to how large-scale telework and teleconferencing compare to face-to-face. Some companies won't suffer productivity-wise and will probably reduce business travel spend when things get better. Others will hate it and might be even more eager to travel in person again.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:15 am

ShinyAndChrome wrote:
Some companies won't suffer productivity-wise and will probably reduce business travel spend when things get better.

Indeed, we've seen THIS scenario play out, time and time again.........


ShinyAndChrome wrote:
Others will hate it and might be even more eager to travel in person again.

........but what corporations went down THAT path after an aviation downturn + investing in an e-commerce advancement?

I'm struggling to cite a single one, can you?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
kavok
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:18 am

The difference is 9/11 directly involved airliners. The Coronavirus doesn’t.

A more apt question is what are the lasting effects of the 2008 financial crisis? That answer (though the scale may be different) is a far better comparison.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:24 am

kavok wrote:
The difference is 9/11 directly involved airliners. The Coronavirus doesn’t.

Not really.

  • Airliners just happened to be the vector chosen for a second terrorist attack on the WTC and other targets: thus they were avoided
  • Airliners also happen to be about the worst place anyone would want to sit stationary, during the outbreak of a highly-contagious pathogen: thus they're being avoided

....what little difference there is between those two, isn't stark at all.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Silver1SWA
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:40 am

LAX772LR wrote:
kavok wrote:
The difference is 9/11 directly involved airliners. The Coronavirus doesn’t.

Not really.

  • Airliners just happened to be the vector chosen for a second terrorist attack on the WTC and other targets: thus they were avoided
  • Airliners also happen to be about the worst place anyone would want to sit stationary, during the outbreak of a highly-contagious pathogen: thus they're being avoided

....what little difference there is between those two, isn't stark at all.


The difference is how quickly confidence will be restored in being able to safely travel on an airliner, which will be based on confidence to safely carry on with life as we knew it.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
santi319
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:48 am

The doom and gloom is actually the scariest part of any employee affected by this (travel, live shows, restaurants and bar industry). Because nothing like this has ever happened on a global scale, we really don’t know and can’t predict what will happen.

The only fact is LIFE WILL GO ON - it has already for the source of all this (China). Once its controlled and its over things will continue to happen. Concerts have been rescheduled, parties, weddings and reunions postponed and travels have been placed on hold. This is not the end. When things are better people WILL fly again (specially millenials, which happens to be the new generation taking over the years to come). Business conventions will take place, and all of the things we have learn from this catastrophe will make society as a whole more grateful and stronger when it comes to traveling and being social. The next virus outbrake will NOT be taken lightly, and airlines, for example, will probably do immediate changes to avoid this at all cost - much like terrorism.

All you see everywhere is the nostalgia of a time when hanging out and being social was the norm, and this includes traveling. I believe society has become fearless, and not complacient. And the best part of this outcome in my opinion, is that everyone will probably be a little more clean from now on in their daily habits.

Hang on everyone! Its always darkest before dawn. But Life Goes On... it always does.
 
Silver1SWA
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:51 am

santi319 wrote:
The doom and gloom its actually the scariest part of any employee affected by this (travel, live shows, restaurants and bar industry). Because nothing like this has ever happened on a global scale, we really don’t know and can’t predict what will happen.

The only fact is LIFE WILL GO ON - it has already for the source of all this (China). Once its controlled and its over things will go continue to happen. Concerts have been rescheduled, parties, weddings and reunions postponed and travels have been placed on hold. This is not the end. When things are better people WILL fly again (specially millenials, which happens to be the new generation taking over years to come). Business conventions will take place and all of the things we have learn from this catastrophe will make society as a whole more grateful and stronger when it comes to handling it. The next virus outbrake will NOT be taken lightly, and airlines, for example, will probably do immediate changes to avoid this at all cost - much like terrorism.

All you see everywhere is the nostalgia of a time when hanging out and being social was the norm, and this includes traveling. I believe society has become fearless, and not complacient. And the best part of this outcome in my opinion, is that everyone will probably be a little more clean from now on.

Hang on everyone! Its always darkest before dawn. But Life Goes On... it always does.


This why I cling to hope that this is more of a temporary disruption for the industry and life in general. Well said.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
Ziyulu
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:57 am

I think more airlines are going to cut services. Like introduce buy on board on international routes, charge for soft drinks, increased baggage fees, etc.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:57 am

The question is the economic damage and desire for more robust supply chains. I think the rebound will be slower.

enilria wrote:
If you have a fever you won’t be able to fly. And the airlines will have to adjust ticketing flexibility to accommodate that.

I also expect a lingering drop in tourism, in particular cruises. Since there are many flights for cruises, that is lost business.

I would expect every airport to have those ceiling mounted temp scanners like they have in Asia.

This is very likely. Too likely.

Lightsaber
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MR27122
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:08 am

LAX772LR wrote:
kavok wrote:
The difference is 9/11 directly involved airliners. The Coronavirus doesn’t.

Not really.

  • Airliners just happened to be the vector chosen for a second terrorist attack on the WTC and other targets: thus they were avoided
  • Airliners also happen to be about the worst place anyone would want to sit stationary, during the outbreak of a highly-contagious pathogen: thus they're being avoided

....what little difference there is between those two, isn't stark at all.



Significant difference. 9/11 successfully & specifically targeted a single Country & symbolically targeted finance & governance & it was hyper-localized to NYC/DC...& that's wildly over-simplified in & of itself. 9/11 "closed" the perception gap that "Oceans" were safety-barriers. 9/11 placed the US "on guard" in a matter of hours. What is known today? No 10/19, 11/23, 12/16 followed. The wake of 9/11 was a collective national unity. COVID-19 also demands/dictates unity & vigilance...except "we" must, for our own personal health, stay as far away from one-another as possible....which includes sitting stationary in a place of work surrounded by colleagues &/or attending a "ballgame" for enjoyment/relaxation. Nobody is tossing out a "1st pitch" in 10 days w/ the perceived assurance "everything's going to be alright"....if they are, then they're doing so in-front of >50K empty seats broadcast to nobody & for no purpose.
 
BAINY3
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:09 am

I would expect the lasting impacts will not be directly health-related; after all, pandemics of this nature are quite uncommon (the significant ones in the past 100 years have not been airborne until now), and once the virus either circles the globe (causing acquired immunity among survivors) or a reliable vaccine is developed, this virus itself will cease to be a major concern.

Instead, I see these impacts going forward:
- Digital meetings are often awkward, but this will force people to become more technologically literate with them and somewhat used to them. Many forms of business travel that are merely meeting-related, without much more, will permanently move into the digital realm. This will depress business travel.
- However, many forms of business travel are still much better in person (think of technical specialists traveling to help out at factories, or any number of things that can't really be done over the computer). Once the threat of the virus passes, this form of business travel will rebound. As will forms of business travel that are simply more effective in person, such as sales where the personal connection really matters.
- Once the economy recovers from the shock, leisure and VFR travel should recover--and there will probably even be a bit of a rebound early on from latent demand (such as rescheduled events happening along with events that won't be delayed in the first place. Fall might be quite busy, or next summer, or whenever it becomes generally safe to travel again).
- Other forms of leisure travel will have to wait for victims of the recession to financially recover, but since this slowdown is caused by external events and isn't actually based in an economic malady (such as a housing bubble bursting), I expect a recovery to be fairly quick once it becomes possible.
- The pandemic is still likely to cause a lot of deaths; demand will somewhat lag for a while just as a result of that. A global population of 7.2 billion will still not quite have as much travel demand as a global population of 7.3 billion.

Ultimately, I believe leisure demand will be only somewhat lower than it would have been otherwise, but business demand will be moreso hurt. This will probably somewhat hurt long-term margins at the business-oriented airlines, while airlines that better cater to leisure and VFR travel will do better, if they can make it through the crisis.

We will probably see mass retirement of certain older and/or unfavored aircraft types. 747, 757, 767, and A380 are probably goners.
 
BAINY3
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:15 am

One more thing: I don't think this structurally alters the travel experience itself too much, such as airport security or anything like that. That is one time 9/11's impact will have been much larger. This crisis isn't really *about* aviation even though it impacts demand greatly. In-flight services might suffer in the short-term where airlines need to cut costs.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:16 am

Silver1SWA wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
....what little difference there is between those two, isn't stark at all.

The difference is how quickly confidence will be restored in being able to safely travel on an airliner, which will be based on confidence to safely carry on with life as we knew it.

Here's the thing though: how can that (specifically) to be claimed a "difference" when we have no idea what the scope of the COVID19 confidence gap will be at this time?

My post was in reference to the general fact that both scares have a direct related to airliners.



MR27122 wrote:
Significant difference. 9/11 successfully & specifically targeted a single Country & symbolically targeted finance & governance & it was hyper-localized to NYC/DC...& that's wildly over-simplified in & of itself. 9/11 "closed" the perception gap that "Oceans" were safety-barriers. 9/11 placed the US "on guard" in a matter of hours. What is known today? No 10/19, 11/23, 12/16 followed. The wake of 9/11 was a collective national unity. COVID-19 also demands/dictates unity & vigilance...except "we" must, for our own personal health, stay as far away from one-another as possible....which includes sitting stationary in a place of work surrounded by colleagues &/or attending a "ballgame" for enjoyment/relaxation. Nobody is tossing out a "1st pitch" in 10 days w/ the perceived assurance "everything's going to be alright"....if they are, then they're doing so in-front of >50K empty seats broadcast to nobody & for no purpose.

I have no idea what point you're attempting to actually argue with this...
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Pudelhund
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:30 am

After people are flying again and the world is putting itself back together, I predict business travel to be a lower percent of travel as videoconference technology improves. Airlines will adapt and become more democratic, having multiple different economy products such that we will not have business and economy, but more like travel standards for upper middle class tourists who want a more premium, bundled experience and then super saver tourists and VFR flyers. Current international business will be a much smaller portion of the plane and first class will not exist. You will have something like Y, Y+, W, and J as a 4-class widebody as the norm.
 
Brucekn
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:30 am

Depending on how long and devastating this infection regime is (and no-one knows- is it months or years?), this could be a massive reset to life itself. Commercial aviation may be redefined.
 
SCQ83
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:30 am

I expect long-distance leisure travel to take a hit in the short to medium term.

Long-haul international leisure travel was at all-time high and middle-class people (at least in developed countries) taking holidays in the other side of the world was something common.

A major economic crisis (which seems it will be far worse than in 2009) will cut those expenses.

But also this Coronavirus is being a traumatic collective experience and the idea of being stuck thousands of kilometres from home in a country with (sometimes) deficient health infrastructure seems like a nightmare. I expect those Emirates A380 taking loads of European tourists to Bangkok or Bali to take a hit. A lot of people will not just be interested to fly to exotic places anymore, or to study a Masters degree very far away from home (Like many Chinese do now in the US, Australia or Canada).

From what I understand this what happened in Japan after their early 90s economic meltdown. Today Japan has its lowest percentage of passport holders for decades as well as Japanese students abroad. It is not only a question of economics but shifting mindset.

stlgph wrote:
One minor change - in the grand scheme of things - longer turn times as crews will probably have to go through after every flight and spray down and wipe every seat, armrest, tray table, the overhead bins ... you name it.


That is a very good thing, with or without more viruses. Many Western societies (at least compared to some countries like Japan) are very tolerant of dirt.
 
ShinyAndChrome
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:39 am

LAX772LR wrote:
........but what corporations went down THAT path after an aviation downturn + investing in an e-commerce advancement?

I'm struggling to cite a single one, can you?


I wasn't trying to cite specific historical precedent so much as prognosticate about potential outcomes. The degree of people being forced to work remotely right now is really unprecedented and it's going to hit places that wouldn't have been serious about it otherwise. I'm sure there will be more places that find it works well enough and consequently cut travel but there will be at least a few who will be eager to go back.
 
Fex180
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:48 am

In the medium-term, I would expect leisure travel to be dramatically lower throughout the spring and early summer, and slower than normal through late summer and into the fall . A 4-6 month long recession is a foregone conclusion at this point, and it's going to take middle-class leisure travelers a while to recover from the financial fallout of this.
 
ShinyAndChrome
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:51 am

Pudelhund wrote:
You will have something like Y, Y+, W, and J as a 4-class widebody as the norm.


I know that's basically already the case with some of the newer/newly-refurbished aircraft out there so I don't know if that's necessarily a new trend versus an accelerated one. AA's 787s and DL's 777s immediately come to mind.
 
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jetfuel
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:58 am

Fex180 wrote:
A 4-6 month long recession .


God Good. Try 4-6 years recession. Things will take years to recover
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
uta999
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:06 am

Everyone: How do we cut our carbon footprint, halt demand, kill globalisation, cut population, reduce air travel, stop climate change?

Nature: Hold my beer.
Your computer just got better
 
jimatkins
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:17 am

I expect a lot of marginally profitable aircraft types to disappear pretty quickly, 744, A343, the remaining Mad Dogs, all going to be gone.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:18 am

BAINY3 wrote:
I would expect the lasting impacts will not be directly health-related; after all, pandemics of this nature are quite uncommon (the significant ones in the past 100 years have not been airborne until now), and once the virus either circles the globe (causing acquired immunity among survivors) or a reliable vaccine is developed, this virus itself will cease to be a major concern.

Instead, I see these impacts going forward:
- Digital meetings are often awkward, but this will force people to become more technologically literate with them and somewhat used to them. Many forms of business travel that are merely meeting-related, without much more, will permanently move into the digital realm. This will depress business travel.
- However, many forms of business travel are still much better in person (think of technical specialists traveling to help out at factories, or any number of things that can't really be done over the computer). Once the threat of the virus passes, this form of business travel will rebound. As will forms of business travel that are simply more effective in person, such as sales where the personal connection really matters.
- Once the economy recovers from the shock, leisure and VFR travel should recover--and there will probably even be a bit of a rebound early on from latent demand (such as rescheduled events happening along with events that won't be delayed in the first place. Fall might be quite busy, or next summer, or whenever it becomes generally safe to travel again).
- Other forms of leisure travel will have to wait for victims of the recession to financially recover, but since this slowdown is caused by external events and isn't actually based in an economic malady (such as a housing bubble bursting), I expect a recovery to be fairly quick once it becomes possible.
- The pandemic is still likely to cause a lot of deaths; demand will somewhat lag for a while just as a result of that. A global population of 7.2 billion will still not quite have as much travel demand as a global population of 7.3 billion.

Ultimately, I believe leisure demand will be only somewhat lower than it would have been otherwise, but business demand will be moreso hurt. This will probably somewhat hurt long-term margins at the business-oriented airlines, while airlines that better cater to leisure and VFR travel will do better, if they can make it through the crisis.

We will probably see mass retirement of certain older and/or unfavored aircraft types. 747, 757, 767, and A380 are probably goners.


So basically, any model that entered service before 1988 you mean. No A320 CEO's, NG's, 772ER's will be impacted by this.

Since I'm the age of the modern A320, I can form a relationship with any 16 year old hottie. Thanks Airbus.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
SkyVoice
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:32 am

For businesses: The use of digital media in things like teleconferencing will explode. Being savvy at tech will translate into training at our universities, colleges, vocational schools, high schools, middle schools & elementary / grammar schools. This will happen much more than it even does now. To no one's surprise, the passenger airline industry will be shaken & stirred. Huge debts will either be charged off, refinanced, or discharged through administration / bankruptcy. Like it or not, flag carriers will be bailed out by their governments because no one wants to lose face & prestige by letting their flag carriers collapse. But, businesses will still have their people flying because, as the saying goes, "You can't fax (or e-mail) a handshake."

OTOH, I believe that the air cargo industry will boom! Businesses and individuals will do more buying digitally, and there will be increased demand for air cargo lift, and soon! This will especially benefit airports--& the cities that they serve--that have air cargo operations, whether they are hubs or focus cities.

For individuals: There is always a pent-up demand for travel, for VFR, or to "get away from it all," or to check off the squares on one's bucket list. I have been amazed at how well ULCCs have performed, with very little in the way of consolidation. These carriers will be shaken & stirred, too, but that pent-up demand for low-cost travel will grow to epic proportions once this crisis is over. Also, someone (several someones, actually) will try to come up with a way to make long-haul, ultra low-cost air travel profitable. I'm not saying that they will be successful, but they will try.

Ladies & gentlemen, that's all my crystal ball can tell me for now. Be safe & stay healthy out there. Godspeed!

-SkyVoice
"Facing a crisis does not not build one's character, it reveals it."

"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."

- Robert H. Schuller
 
Silver1SWA
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:50 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Silver1SWA wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
....what little difference there is between those two, isn't stark at all.

The difference is how quickly confidence will be restored in being able to safely travel on an airliner, which will be based on confidence to safely carry on with life as we knew it.

Here's the thing though: how can that (specifically) to be claimed a "difference" when we have no idea what the scope of the COVID19 confidence gap will be at this time?

My post was in reference to the general fact that both scares have a direct related to airliners.


Because people aren’t only not flying because they’re scared. They stopped flying because they’ve been told not to, banned from doing so, no longer have reason to, etc. etc.

My hope is also based on extreme shutdown measures showing signs of working soon. There’s no end in sight because we aren’t seeing results yet. It’s still too early. It’s barely been a week since the first round of extreme measures (in the US) were announced and we’ve been told it will get worse before it gets better so that’s keeping confidence low right now.

I’m usually a glass half empty kinda guy. Let me be optimistic for once. :half:
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
MR27122
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:54 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Silver1SWA wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
....what little difference there is between those two, isn't stark at all.

The difference is how quickly confidence will be restored in being able to safely travel on an airliner, which will be based on confidence to safely carry on with life as we knew it.

Here's the thing though: how can that (specifically) to be claimed a "difference" when we have no idea what the scope of the COVID19 confidence gap will be at this time?

My post was in reference to the general fact that both scares have a direct related to airliners.



MR27122 wrote:
Significant difference. 9/11 successfully & specifically targeted a single Country & symbolically targeted finance & governance & it was hyper-localized to NYC/DC...& that's wildly over-simplified in & of itself. 9/11 "closed" the perception gap that "Oceans" were safety-barriers. 9/11 placed the US "on guard" in a matter of hours. What is known today? No 10/19, 11/23, 12/16 followed. The wake of 9/11 was a collective national unity. COVID-19 also demands/dictates unity & vigilance...except "we" must, for our own personal health, stay as far away from one-another as possible....which includes sitting stationary in a place of work surrounded by colleagues &/or attending a "ballgame" for enjoyment/relaxation. Nobody is tossing out a "1st pitch" in 10 days w/ the perceived assurance "everything's going to be alright"....if they are, then they're doing so in-front of >50K empty seats broadcast to nobody & for no purpose.

I have no idea what point you're attempting to actually argue with this...


Re-read...Pause...Contemplate....your "Not really" response to the statement "The difference is 9/11 directly involved airliners. The Coronavirus doesn’t."

Perhaps you will then comprehend the "point" I was conveying.
*No "airplanes" = No 9/11, thus REALLY Airlines were directly involved & needed (i.e. Airplanes belonging to Airlines were deliberately "vectored" by terrorists into buildings).
*RE: COVID-19 you firmly state that airliners would be "about" the "...worst place {for} anyone..." to sit stationary for any duration. I've read about COVID-19 & Carnival CRUISE Lines Diamond Princess as a kinda "Ground Zero". I've not read of any specific airline & flight #....please enlighten if you have an example to share (Ya, some pax on a B6 flight to PBI was aware of having tested positive pre-flight & has since been banned by B6). Or...a specific Greyhound bus...Or an Amtrak/Via train...Or municipal transit bus...Or....

For "REAL" COVID-19 & your concluding statement re: the difference between 9/11--- "what little difference there is between those two, isn't stark at all"---& the differences aren't just "stark", they're exceedingly vivid/clear....H U G E D I F F E R E N C E.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:17 am

ShinyAndChrome wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
........but what corporations went down THAT path after an aviation downturn + investing in an e-commerce advancement?
I'm struggling to cite a single one, can you?

I wasn't trying to cite specific historical precedent so much as prognosticate about potential outcomes.

The issue there though, is that commercial aviation is rarely original:
easiest way to see what's going to happen, especially in regard to economic/technological shifts, is to look at what consistently happens in that type of scenario.

While this may yet be the biggest obstacle that the deregulated market has faced; there's essentially no precedent for that latter suggestion.



Silver1SWA wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Silver1SWA wrote:
The difference is how quickly confidence will be restored in being able to safely travel on an airliner, which will be based on confidence to safely carry on with life as we knew it.

Here's the thing though: how can that (specifically) to be claimed a "difference" when we have no idea what the scope of the COVID19 confidence gap will be at this time?
My post was in reference to the general fact that both scares have a direct related to airliners.

Because people aren’t only not flying because they’re scared.

Same can be said of the immediate 9/11 aftermath. Air traffic wasn't depressed solely due to people being frightened.



MR27122 wrote:
Re-read...Pause...Contemplate....your "Not really" response to the statement "The difference is 9/11 directly involved airliners. The Coronavirus doesn’t."
Perhaps you will then comprehend the "point" I was conveying.

TBH, that was really just a less-than-my-normal-aholish-self way of saying that I think your point is bunk; not that I didn't actually understand what you were trying to convey. ;)
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Silver1SWA
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:05 am

LAX772LR wrote:

Silver1SWA wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Here's the thing though: how can that (specifically) to be claimed a "difference" when we have no idea what the scope of the COVID19 confidence gap will be at this time?
My post was in reference to the general fact that both scares have a direct related to airliners.

Because people aren’t only not flying because they’re scared.

Same can be said of the immediate 9/11 aftermath. Air traffic wasn't depressed solely due to people being frightened.



I believe as soon as the restrictions are lifted people will quickly want to fly again and that’s a big difference between what is happening now and what happened after 9/11.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
MR27122
Posts: 132
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:55 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
........but what corporations went down THAT path after an aviation downturn + investing in an e-commerce advancement?
I'm struggling to cite a single one, can you?

I wasn't trying to cite specific historical precedent so much as prognosticate about potential outcomes.

The issue there though, is that commercial aviation is rarely original:
easiest way to see what's going to happen, especially in regard to economic/technological shifts, is to look at what consistently happens in that type of scenario.

While this may yet be the biggest obstacle that the deregulated market has faced; there's essentially no precedent for that latter suggestion.



Silver1SWA wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Here's the thing though: how can that (specifically) to be claimed a "difference" when we have no idea what the scope of the COVID19 confidence gap will be at this time?
My post was in reference to the general fact that both scares have a direct related to airliners.

Because people aren’t only not flying because they’re scared.

Same can be said of the immediate 9/11 aftermath. Air traffic wasn't depressed solely due to people being frightened.



MR27122 wrote:
Re-read...Pause...Contemplate....your "Not really" response to the statement "The difference is 9/11 directly involved airliners. The Coronavirus doesn’t."
Perhaps you will then comprehend the "point" I was conveying.

TBH, that was really just a less-than-my-normal-aholish-self way of saying that I think your point is bunk; not that I didn't actually understand what you were trying to convey. ;)


:D Let's leave it @ that....I enjoy reading a topic more when I see you're engaged in the discussion!!! A GOOD THING....& we're all looking/searching/wanting anything GOOD!!!! Keep Well!
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:37 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
........but what corporations went down THAT path after an aviation downturn + investing in an e-commerce advancement?
I'm struggling to cite a single one, can you?

I wasn't trying to cite specific historical precedent so much as prognosticate about potential outcomes.

The issue there though, is that commercial aviation is rarely original:
easiest way to see what's going to happen, especially in regard to economic/technological shifts, is to look at what consistently happens in that type of scenario.

While this may yet be the biggest obstacle that the deregulated market has faced; there's essentially no precedent for that latter suggestion.


I'm just trying to say that minority of the thousands and thousands of businesses now forced to go all remote will find that they don't like it and will start to travel again when this passes. Is that really so hard to defend?
 
kavok
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:21 pm

After 9/11, the whole flight experience changed. More security, lots of backend government data tracking, changes to operational procedures, etc. I honestly don’t believe the flight experience itself will be that different in three years because of this. I don’t see seat back IFE going away, it would great if lavatories were a better experience but I am not that optimistic, and maybe the more thorough cleaning procedures of aircraft get retained, but I don’t see the experience changing that much.

Now, inevitably some airlines will likely go bankrupt reducing competition. A recession/depression will lower ticket sales and there will be less flying (but again that is because of the economy, and not the virus directly). And yes, some business travel will be curtailed, but again that will likely be economically induced.

Here is the thing though, in 12-18 months we will have a vaccine, and huge portion of the population will have had it anyway. So there won’t be a fear to flying. Expanding further, the lockdowns we are seeing today are all due to “do your part to help the flattening the curve” situation.

Expanding further, if hospitals were not in a situation where they are (or are about to be) overwhelmed, if they had the medical equipment they needed, and frankly there was no need to flatten the curve... then we wouldn’t be in the scenario we are in. If you are under 40 and have no medical issues, there would be very low risk in flying. We are in the situation we are in because we are (mostly) all forced to do our part to flatten the curve. Once that is not necessary, there will not be a reason for most people to avoid flying.

And yes, the economy could be in a depression by then, and people not buying tickets because they don’t have money. But that is an economic problem then, not a health problem. The health problem will end in a few months. The economic problem will obviously go much longer.
 
maps4ltd
Posts: 542
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:34 pm

Like the 9/11 security changes, I could see cleaning changes. Aircraft fogging (like what DL does) could be mandated. Temperature checks could be mandated at security checkpoints (in HKG, for example, they already had temperature scanners before COVID).
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AirKevin
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:00 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
The longer this goes on, the more working from home will be normalized.

I suppose that depends on your line of work. Working from home is a little difficult in my case when I drive a truck for a living.
Captain Kevin
 
VSMUT
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:34 pm

I could see self-serve buffets being cut down significantly. In hotels, in airport lounges and restaurants. Generally much more hygiene surrounding food and passengers. Onboard I think fresh products served from a tray will give way to factory processed stuff coming in a wrapper.
 
DeltaPSCFlyer
Posts: 74
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:13 am

VSMUT wrote:
I could see self-serve buffets being cut down significantly. In hotels, in airport lounges and restaurants. Generally much more hygiene surrounding food and passengers. Onboard I think fresh products served from a tray will give way to factory processed stuff coming in a wrapper.


Agreed. And to your point, I think the U.S. is way behind in this regard. You can go to any grocery store here and in the produce section, everything is out there to touch and pick up with your bare hands, let alone no sneeze guard! Don't like the look of that apple or bell pepper? No problem...put it down and then feel another one until you find that perfect-looking vegetable. I visited a grocery store in Germany 10 years ago, and Italy and UK before that, and customers there at that time had to put on a plastic glove and use tongs to take the item they want. So maybe our produce sections will look more like the meat and deli section, where the store employee packages up what you tell them you want.

For travel, I think the cruise lines will require proof of health from a medical professional before boarding, with a liberal refund policy if you happen to be sick at the time you board (vs. when you first booked it). Airlines may do this as well.

I saw a full body temp scanner when I arrived at NRT about 2 1/2 years ago, and thought it was just the coolest thing! I can see those being installed at the security checkpoints, and maybe even at the ticket counter. I also think airlines will greatly expand on the self-check in kiosks for ticketing, check-in, bag-check, etc. It's already being done now, and I think this will be greatly expanded upon.

Because of the profound financial impact on the travel and food/lodging industries due to this virus, expect significant and long-term changes.
 
JammyBritton27
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Will the Airline Industry Evolve or Die After the Black Swan-ish Disruption?

Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:51 pm

Is the airline industry staring at an evolutionary cycle after the Coronavirus-induced Pandemic that has no parallels in the past? What was the thought process of top airline executives as Covid-19 unfolded? Were they prepared? What lies ahead?

An extensive analysis based on the recent earnings transcripts, SEC filings and press releases.

https://news.alphastreet.com/will-the-a ... isruption/
 
ltbewr
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Re: Will the Airline Industry Evolve or Die After the Black Swan-ish Disruption?

Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:24 pm

Simple answer, evolve.
A number of weak companies will go out of business or merge.
Some like as discussed in another thread on Delta Air Lines will reduce their size, number of cities serviced, have fewer and keep the most fuel efficient aircraft, shift their focus and hub strictures.
Offer overall fewer seats so fares and thus net profit yields higher until enough demand to encourage moderate increases in service yet keep yields up.
Give up the low fare business to LCC/ULCC's that survive.
Over time hike up checked bag and other fees.
Once past initial recovery, to pare down frequent flyer/credit card points programs, raising miles/points needed to get upgrades and flights.
Likely reduce 'buddy pass' and other flight benefits to workers unless used for work transfer purposes.
 
cedarjet
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:53 pm

The Max is done. Even as recently as December, pilots who had been given runaway MCAS training flunked sim rides (according to Bloomberg). So that’s still an issue (and they were American pilots, haters). There’s going to be a massive financial depression which will not only crush demand but cratered jet fuel prices will undermine the Max’s only advantage, efficiency.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 582
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:24 pm

No one knows for sure because no one knows when and how this will end and what damage will be done. I would tend to agree that the Max could be done, unless the industry comes roaring back. If it's a slow choppy return like post 9/11 older a/c will be parked, new deliveries halted, routes cut, and some planes returned to leasors. Smaller airlines will be forced out of business and not saved. I still think the ULCC business model is most at risk. And at least here in the US they've added significant capacity and other than Allegiant bought lots of new planes. Half full 320s/321s will be bad enough for the legacies, it would kill the ULCCs. Unfortunately for them I don't see politicians saving the ULCCs.

Furthermore, I think surviving airlines will keep capacity draw downs and not bring back certain routes. Load factors could fall off the highs but I don't see the 1960s and 1970s typical load factors staying.
 
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FLALEFTY
Posts: 725
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Re: Will the Airline Industry Evolve or Die After the Black Swan-ish Disruption?

Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:58 pm

ltbewr wrote:
Simple answer, evolve.
A number of weak companies will go out of business or merge.
Some like as discussed in another thread on Delta Air Lines will reduce their size, number of cities serviced, have fewer and keep the most fuel efficient aircraft, shift their focus and hub strictures.
Offer overall fewer seats so fares and thus net profit yields higher until enough demand to encourage moderate increases in service yet keep yields up.
Give up the low fare business to LCC/ULCC's that survive.
Over time hike up checked bag and other fees.
Once past initial recovery, to pare down frequent flyer/credit card points programs, raising miles/points needed to get upgrades and flights.
Likely reduce 'buddy pass' and other flight benefits to workers unless used for work transfer purposes.


Just focusing on US airlines, I think the "Big 4" each have at least one under-performing hub ("focus city" in the case of WN) that were inherited via past mergers that are ripe for de-hubbing. To avoid starting arguments, I'll refrain from identifying my list of "hubs on the bubble", but speculate freely amongst yourselves.

I expect one of the LCC's to hit bankruptcy court for reorganization. Top candidates might found among F9, NK and B6, all of whom were in the midst of aggressive re-fleeting purchases and leasing actions when this crisis struck. The Chapter 11 airline will survive, will be down-sized and will be merger bait.

To lure business passengers back in the airline "saddle" again, look for more passenger room on board and more perks, at least for a short spell. To get the VFR traffic back up to speed, look for temporary reductions (not eliminations) of bag fees, change fees, carry-on fees, check-in fees, etc.

As many have mentioned, this crisis will allow the big legacies to shed aging fleets of B757/767's, A332's, MD88/90's and even older B772's, B737/8's & A32X's, A333's. However, it remains to be seen if the US airlines' committments to the B737MAX extends beyond what are currently under firm orders. For example, I wonder if WN will actually accept the 737MAX7, or United will accept the 737MAX10? Also, I'm not too sure if United and American will still want A321XLR's after this all settles down.
 
cpd
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:02 pm

enilria wrote:
If you have a fever you won’t be able to fly. And the airlines will have to adjust ticketing flexibility to accommodate that.

I would expect every airport to have those ceiling mounted temp scanners like they have in Asia.


I suspect this will happen too. For the better.

Working from home or video conferencing will become a lot more common. That could be a decent thing.
 
asr0dzjq
Posts: 203
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:17 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The question is the economic damage and desire for more robust supply chains. I think the rebound will be slower.

enilria wrote:
If you have a fever you won’t be able to fly. And the airlines will have to adjust ticketing flexibility to accommodate that.

I also expect a lingering drop in tourism, in particular cruises. Since there are many flights for cruises, that is lost business.

I would expect every airport to have those ceiling mounted temp scanners like they have in Asia.

This is very likely. Too likely.

Lightsaber

That technology also needs to be regulated so that it's not used for surveillance purposes and whatnot. It's actually pretty complicated.
R.I.P. Douglas Aircraft Company
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BNAMealer
Posts: 779
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:39 pm

Could we see of one of the US3 getting absorbed by the others as a result of this?

Will we really need 3 big network carriers after this?

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