vadodara
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:43 pm

richierich wrote:
What will be the lasting effects of the worldwide pandemic on the aviation industry?
....
I'm interested in hearing what peoples' thoughts are on the aviation industry a year from now, five years from now, etc.. Airlines that survive this are bound to be different, but what, if anything, will change?


I hope the govt. limits its rescuing of Airlines to help the employees get back on their feet and move to other jobs.

The likes of AA, DL and UA had grown too large with the elimination of competition rules. Honestly, this will be a good correction at the slot contained airports like LGA, DCA and others. Perhaps, the industry will evolve and not be concentrated in a few hands.
 
groupguy
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:17 am

LAX772LR wrote:
The longer this goes on, the more working from home will be normalized. Rest assured that companies large and small, are using this to study the cost/benefit of home-based work (in terms of capital, time, logistics, productivity, etc).

That, combined with the quantum leap in e-commerce since 2001, is likely to have a lasting impact on corporate travel policies.

Thus, anyone believing this is only temporary..... is unfortunately self deluding. :( :(
I think the effects will be similar to SEP 11. Many airlines will fold including some big ones.

Countries that only have 1 airline which provides that country with tourists, will survive, at that countries govt will have to ensure it does.

Corona will eventually be treated just like another flu. How long will that take ? 2 years maybe, until a vaccine is found.

Groups are already looking at end of year & planning trips, which is great for me.

Face to face meetings will never ever go away.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:15 pm

groupguy wrote:
Face to face meetings will never ever go away.

No one's saying they will.

This issues at hand are: how much will companies still be willing to spend for them, and what percentage of the flight mix will they comprise; moving forward.

Looking to the extremely consistent past: we know that the amount of BOTH will be DOWN.
What we don't how, is by how much... and thus, how that will affect everything from equipment choice, to seating charts, to staffing, and to frequency.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
groupguy
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:59 am

LAX772LR wrote:
groupguy wrote:
Face to face meetings will never ever go away.

No one's saying they will.

This issues at hand are: how much will companies still be willing to spend for them, and what percentage of the flight mix will they comprise; moving forward.

Looking to the extremely consistent past: we know that the amount of BOTH will be DOWN.
What we don't how, is by how much... and thus, how that will affect everything from equipment choice, to seating charts, to staffing, and to frequency.

what ?

"the amount of BOTH will be DOWN"

what exactly & why ?

Think fares for business people might go up a bit, but at same time, low season travel should be cheap, for those who are date flexible, ie retirees, unless airlines cut frequencies, but from my point of view, airlines won't cut routes that were one frequency a day, to less, as they might then lose high fare paying business types. Only way they can reduce capacity on those routes is to reduce aircraft size, but not many options on long haul.

A321LRs & A220s might take on some more mid range length routes that were previously operated by widebodies, but will business people like that & isn't the maximum range of these aircraft around 7 or 8 hours with a decent load ?
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:52 am

groupguy wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
groupguy wrote:
Face to face meetings will never ever go away.

This issues at hand are: how much will companies still be willing to spend for them, and what percentage of the flight mix will they comprise
Looking to the extremely consistent past: we know that the amount of BOTH will be DOWN.

what ?
"the amount of BOTH will be DOWN"
what exactly & why ?

What part of that is unclear?

Historically, after alternatives to face2face are brought to market, the spend and relative volume of corporate air travel decreases, at least in the near term.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
DFW17L
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:16 pm

Lasting effects? Lysol aerosol cans will now be allowed through TSA checkpoints.
 
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enilria
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:38 pm

cpd wrote:
enilria wrote:
If you have a fever you won’t be able to fly. And the airlines will have to adjust ticketing flexibility to accommodate that.

I would expect every airport to have those ceiling mounted temp scanners like they have in Asia.


I suspect this will happen too. For the better.

Working from home or video conferencing will become a lot more common. That could be a decent thing.

Not being able to fly with a fever while traveling with the whole family is a big problem. Group of 5 with 3 kids to Disney there is a serious likelihood somebody will get a cold.
 
kavok
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:09 am

Based on this thread, far too many people are just looking at it from a “recession = less money = less flying” perspective. And while that will certainly be a factor, the biggest impact will be fear of the virus.

The good news is that 6 months from now, most people won’t have been exposed to the virus. The bad news for the airline industry is 6 months from now, most people won’t have been exposed to the virus. Think about what that means...

Without a vaccine, people are still not going to want to fly in a confined tube with strangers who may be infected. That is the reason most are canceling today, and sadly that probably isn’t changing. Even 6 months from now, most people will have avoided the virus for the previous 6 months by social distancing or pure luck. In particular, given the severe impacts to people in the 55+ age group, that group especially is going to simply continue avoiding flying even if they have the money or ability to travel. A very large portion of the population aren’t flying today because they don’t want to get sick. The same will be true 6 months from now, regardless if they can pay for the ticket or not. For the next year or so, the fear of getting the virus will be the real issue with ticket sales.
 
iadadd
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Re-nationalization of Airlines

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:15 am

With the aviation industry experiencing its biggest catastrophe to date, and the potential for some airlines to collapse by the end of this year, is there a chance to see some countries nationalizing their flag carriers ?
 
ctrabs0114
Posts: 1016
Joined: Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:09 am

Re: Re-nationalization of Airlines

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:18 am

Good luck trying to re-nationalize airlines currently part of the IAG family. I could make the same argument about AF/KLM.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW, PHL, MIA, LAX; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), B739 (DL), B712 (DL), B752 (AA), B763 (AA), B77W (AA), B789 (AA)
Next: TBA
 
Boof02671
Posts: 1794
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:15 am

Re: Re-nationalization of Airlines

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:43 am

The Italian government renationalized Alitalia.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Re-nationalization of Airlines

Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:10 am

AF/KL is already partly owned by the French and since recently Dutch states, so they could easily buy more shares, especially at current very low prices. What matters though is cash injection if the company needs it.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
VSMUT
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Re: What will be the lasting effects of the Coronavirus on commercial aviation?

Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:36 am

DeltaPSCFlyer wrote:
I also think airlines will greatly expand on the self-check in kiosks for ticketing, check-in, bag-check, etc. It's already being done now, and I think this will be greatly expanded upon.


Self-check in kiosks are a point of contact for the great unwashed masses. Too many people have to touch the touchscreen and keyboard. I could see it go the other way actually, keep the contact to a few employees kitted out with gloves and hand-sanitizer. Or the alternative, force people to start using apps.

It would not surprise me if more limitations will be put in place on paying with cash, especially in big hubs. We will see more contact-less card payment options.

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