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YYZflyboy
Topic Author
Posts: 85
Joined: Sun May 27, 2007 9:00 pm

American Carriers after COVID-19

Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:51 am

With the situation of the carriers being so dire, and with many sources indicating that there will be shrunken airlines, that begs for this question to be asked:

Can the 4 US carriers in alliances (AA, AS, UA, and DL) not focus only a domestic flying and simply connect to their foreign partners in their once COVID-19 is done? Leave the international flying to their international partners (KE, AF, KL, VS, MU for DL; AC, AI, BR, CA, LH, LO, LX, OS, OZ, SA, SN, SQ, TP; AY, BA, CX, IB, JL, QF, QR, RJ for AA), and focus on feeding their partners. That, combined with domestic demand, would mean fuller planes.

Would like to hear what you think.
 
Boof02671
Posts: 2099
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:15 am

Re: American Carriers after COVID-19

Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:08 am

Pilot contracts have limitations on foreign code sharing and JVs. Delta has lost two arbitration’s on the matter already.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4947
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: American Carriers after COVID-19

Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:47 am

I think domestic flying will rebound before international flying. It’s possible that our social distancing restrictions end long before other countries are ready to accept visitors.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4751
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: American Carriers after COVID-19

Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:34 am

I think summer vacation season will be alot of car travel but hopefully bounce back. I bet we see people go camping things that allow them to keep distance. I don't think people will want to get back on planes until there is a vaccine. Lots of summer weddings already postpone to Fall at this point. Relevant because it shows you people know people won't feel comfortable by then even if we are down to regional pockets.
 
tcfc424
Posts: 576
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2003 11:56 am

Re: American Carriers after COVID-19

Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:03 am

If you're thinking that carriers in the US are thinking about abandoning international flying, I think you'd be incorrect. International flying has long been a place where airlines make their margin. In recent years, pressure from international LCC's has put a downward trend on those margins, but they too are feeling the effects and may also be under pressure. US carriers will be eager to resume international flying as soon as it is prudent.
 
planecane
Posts: 1569
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: American Carriers after COVID-19

Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:22 pm

32andBelow wrote:
I think domestic flying will rebound before international flying. It’s possible that our social distancing restrictions end long before other countries are ready to accept visitors.


I think it is more likely that the US won't lift restrictions to accept visitors. Dr. Fauci even alluded to that in yesterday's briefing. He said that they learned from China that it is important to stay on top of imported cases once your domestic situation is under control.

I would assume that for a while, all international travel will require a SARS-CoV-2 test upon arrival which will at the very least make international travel less pleasurable since there will be some time delay to get results.
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 341
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:49 pm

Re: American Carriers after COVID-19

Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:37 pm

I think people will be slow to coming back to travelling. Firstly from lingering concern, followed by people and business having overhanging economic factors limiting spending and then finally business who have had to deal with being unable to travel have come up with alternatives to do the same things. Compared to the previous downturns after 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis, technology and network speeds have meant these options are better than previously so there will be this cost savings residual effect as people have adjusted to different ways of working remotely. Overtime people will travel more, but I think it will be a slow recovery.
 
Exyxy
Posts: 13
Joined: Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:44 pm

Re: American Carriers after COVID-19

Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:52 pm

Just wondering why you think the other carriers will be in better shape?
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15202
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: American Carriers after COVID-19

Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:56 pm

The best hope is that once a vaccine is in mass distribution there will be a sharp rebound to a modest level in travel within the USA by plane. There may be long-term cuts in flights, frequency and numbers of seats to try to raise fares, improve yields and profits.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8034
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: American Carriers after COVID-19

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:08 pm

YYZflyboy wrote:
With the situation of the carriers being so dire, and with many sources indicating that there will be shrunken airlines, that begs for this question to be asked:

Can the 4 US carriers in alliances (AA, AS, UA, and DL) not focus only a domestic flying and simply connect to their foreign partners in their once COVID-19 is done? Leave the international flying to their international partners (KE, AF, KL, VS, MU for DL; AC, AI, BR, CA, LH, LO, LX, OS, OZ, SA, SN, SQ, TP; AY, BA, CX, IB, JL, QF, QR, RJ for AA), and focus on feeding their partners. That, combined with domestic demand, would mean fuller planes.

Would like to hear what you think.


Would you care to reason out why you think U.S. carriers should abandon intercontinental flying? Why should any capacity adjustment fall fully on U.S. carriers? Are you aware of codeshare restrictions in U.S. pilot contracts?
 
Toinou
Posts: 277
Joined: Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:21 am

Re: American Carriers after COVID-19

Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:00 pm

32andBelow wrote:
I think domestic flying will rebound before international flying. It’s possible that our social distancing restrictions end long before other countries are ready to accept visitors.

They are different factors to consider on this issue:
- Will the epidemic end faster in the US than in other parts of the world? I'm no expert but it started later there, which means that it will probably end later too. This is except if it is much better contained in the US than in other places. It could be (and I hope it will be) but recent development are not exactly going that way.
- Will domestic travel restart before international one? (Your exact question.) You may have a point there as many countries will probably try to avoid being recontaminated from other countries and people will probably be cautious about travelling. But I couldn't say if this will apply more to international travel or to any kind of travel.
 
HPRamper
Posts: 5020
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

Re: American Carriers after COVID-19

Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:49 pm

Toinou wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
I think domestic flying will rebound before international flying. It’s possible that our social distancing restrictions end long before other countries are ready to accept visitors.

They are different factors to consider on this issue:
- Will the epidemic end faster in the US than in other parts of the world? I'm no expert but it started later there, which means that it will probably end later too. This is except if it is much better contained in the US than in other places. It could be (and I hope it will be) but recent development are not exactly going that way.
- Will domestic travel restart before international one? (Your exact question.) You may have a point there as many countries will probably try to avoid being recontaminated from other countries and people will probably be cautious about travelling. But I couldn't say if this will apply more to international travel or to any kind of travel.

The way it is trending, we will be one of the last places for it to end - we are currently on pace to pass China and probably Italy in cases and thus deaths. Currently not enough info coming out of Africa to really make a judgement there. But Europe will certainly get it under control before we do.

I believe domestic travel will rebound first. If for nothing else the distrust for foreigners and foreign governments that have been sown since the beginning of this epidemic, whether it be deserved or not.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: American Carriers after COVID-19

Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:12 pm

The issue with the US are the number of major cities we have. Of course we are going to have higher numbers than Italy just based upon our population numbers and the number of large cities. China has far more people living in remote areas.

Domestic travel will probably recover fairly quickly. International travel might take longer depending upon the virus.

Some smaller US carriers probably aren't going to make it and won't be saved. The other question will be people and their concern for being shoulder to shoulder with total strangers. Airlines might find that the general public no longer wants to fly on a fully loaded 737/320 with closing in on 200 seats.
 
illinicmi
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2009 4:21 pm

Re: American Carriers after COVID-19

Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:25 pm

HPRamper wrote:
The way it is trending, we will be one of the last places for it to end - we are currently on pace to pass China and probably Italy in cases and thus deaths. Currently not enough info coming out of Africa to really make a judgement there. But Europe will certainly get it under control before we do.


Not sure I agree with this. Not saying we're there yet, but a massive number of cases are in the densely populated NY metro. All the cases being confirmed now are from spread prior to the heaviest restrictions put in place (they were later than some). We know the Seattle area was one of the first to be infected, and they clamped down early, and their cases haven't grown nearly as drastically. I know Louisiana is growing quickly, but again I think that's a lag factor of cases now positive from interaction prior to lockdown.

There's gonna be at least a 2 week lag. Not saying we're out of the woods, but it's frankly too early to make that call. I'm optimistic that since the dire predictions so far have not come to be realized (and some of dates they quoted are now overdue), the US won't get the massive deaths that we're seeing in Italy and Spain. That's why I think Europe will be slower to recover.

Because of that, I agree that domestic travel will come back quick, but international will be a while.

We'll know a lot in about a week.
 
UA772IAD
Posts: 1343
Joined: Sat Jul 10, 2004 7:43 am

Re: American Carriers after COVID-19

Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:24 pm

illinicmi wrote:
HPRamper wrote:
The way it is trending, we will be one of the last places for it to end - we are currently on pace to pass China and probably Italy in cases and thus deaths. Currently not enough info coming out of Africa to really make a judgement there. But Europe will certainly get it under control before we do.


Not sure I agree with this. Not saying we're there yet, but a massive number of cases are in the densely populated NY metro. All the cases being confirmed now are from spread prior to the heaviest restrictions put in place (they were later than some). We know the Seattle area was one of the first to be infected, and they clamped down early, and their cases haven't grown nearly as drastically. I know Louisiana is growing quickly, but again I think that's a lag factor of cases now positive from interaction prior to lockdown.

There's gonna be at least a 2 week lag. Not saying we're out of the woods, but it's frankly too early to make that call. I'm optimistic that since the dire predictions so far have not come to be realized (and some of dates they quoted are now overdue), the US won't get the massive deaths that we're seeing in Italy and Spain. That's why I think Europe will be slower to recover.

Because of that, I agree that domestic travel will come back quick, but international will be a while.

We'll know a lot in about a week.


The latter part of your statement is absolutely true. As for the earlier part- I think its too early to make that prediction. NY has been taking extraordinary measures to try and curb and control the spread of COVID-19; and yet they are still becoming the epicenter of the outbreak in the US. You can argue whether their actions were too late or not, but if they are doing all that they are doing and still seeing a vertical rise in cases - how is it going to look in states and locations where local government isn't doing what New York is doing and doesn't have the resources that New York has?

>> Other people on here talked about the resumption of international flying- well I echo some of the statements on here that it will be dependent on how the virus is controlled, as well as geopolitical forces shaping policy. Will the US have in place travel restrictions to certain areas? On the other side of the coin, will other countries restrict or ban US based travelers if they don't deem our recovery, quarantine and epidemiological measures sufficient in protecting their own populations and economies from future outbreaks. If we lift the veil too quickly here, that can be a real factor. So far from what we've seen from some of our carriers, a few select Transatlantic routes are being added back to the summer schedule but its a massive reduction- and frankly too soon for airlines to commit to anything in that regard.

>>> Lastly in addressing summer air travel, and domestic air travel, I too think that the domestic market will rebound first, but, and this is a big but, I don't think it will be by summer. Frankly, I think even in the best case scenario of controlling the virus, that's a bit optimistic for a few reasons: 1) our economy is certainly in a recession- and that is certainly going to wipe out a lot of discretionary spending for a lot of people. 2) I agree- there will be a lot more car trips on the other side of this, at least for a while, but how is the infrastructure that supports and surrounds the travel industry going to look on the other side of this? How are hotels (both corporate chain and independent), restaurants and other tourist-centric services going to look if their bookings dry up... how many will still be around? If social distancing and self isolation measures are lifted- how many people are going to take a vacation this summer after losing their incomes? If schools remain closed for much longer, or stay closed for the rest of the year- you might see school districts going into summer school, or going back to school early (as in in the summer)- how does that affect family summer plans?

Airline executives have gone on record and said this pandemic is worse than 9/11- which took the airlines YEARS to recover from. I think the industry was in much better financial shape than leading up to 9/11, but our carriers- particularly the legacy carriers have been going all in on CAPEXs going into COVID-19; consolidation, purchasing large quantities of new aircraft (and also dealing with the associated headaches that come with that, aka 737 MAX), shoring up emerging markets, like SEA or DEN, expanding internationally (either on their own metal or through JVs), retooling labor agreements, real estate leases at airports, upgrading hard and soft products, and of course engaging in corporate buy backs and increasing executive compensation. A lot of that will be examined, questioned, delayed or cancelled.

We're also not addressing how business travel on the other side of this will effect revenue streams for airlines going forward. That will likely look markedly different as well.
 
KlausAugenthale
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:17 am

Re: American Carriers after COVID-19

Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:25 am

I think it is more likely that the US airspace will not be open to the visitors in near future. as the situation is progressing, more and more trouble are adding to the economy and healthcare sector.

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