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PHXWRLD
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US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:39 am

I wanted to start a discussion to get all of your opinions on what are the most likely US3 hubs to get dehubbed because of the coronavirus and the likely incoming recession. Here are the possibilities I see for each carrier:

DL: Their new coastal hubs in BOS and SEA seem vulnerable, as does LAX to a lesser extent. Also could see DTW or MSP getting significantly drawn down.

UA: LAX has been reduced much recently already, so this seems likely to go unfortunately. The recent IAD build up seems likely to be reversed as well.

AA: LAX seems vulnerable for AA too, apparently it and NYC are the big money losers. DFW will also almost definitely get drawn down as it has gotten way too much capacity added lately. DCA and PHX seem the safest given their high yielding O&D.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:47 am

None of them are in danger of being dehubbed. All of them will lose capacity.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
ZazuPIT
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:01 am

Seems a little too early to be thinking about this. If, as some anticipate COVID-19 returns in N autumn/winter, then some lesser performing hubs may be drawn down or significantly reduced. We are in uncharted territory right now.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:22 am

ZazuPIT wrote:
If, as some anticipate COVID-19 returns in N autumn/winte

That's of course, assuming that it'll go away for late spring/summer... for which there's little evidence to support.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:31 am

LAX772LR wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
If, as some anticipate COVID-19 returns in N autumn/winte

That's of course, assuming that it'll go away for late spring/summer... for which there's little evidence to support.


Tell that to MIT and Anthony Fauci.


It won’t go away completely of course, but yes there is ample evidence it will slow down in warm humid weather. That doesn’t mean infected people can’t flood a warm humid city and spread it (like Madrid Gras or Saint Patrick’s day in New Orleans), but yes there’s plenty of evidence.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
acentauri
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:45 am

PHXWRLD wrote:
I wanted to start a discussion to get all of your opinions on what are the most likely US3 hubs to get dehubbed because of the coronavirus and the likely incoming recession. Here are the possibilities I see for each carrier:
..............................
AA: LAX seems vulnerable for AA too, apparently it and NYC are the big money losers. DFW will also almost definitely get drawn down as it has gotten way too much capacity added lately. DCA and PHX seem the safest given their high yielding O&D.

According to a 2019 Dallas press article, PHX Overall profitability (%) is estimated to be Lower than CLT, DCA, DFW, ORD and PHL. DFW, ORD and PHL were estimated to be nearly the same.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:46 am

I do not think any big 3 hubs will be shut. Some may come back slower than others. Domestic hubs I see come back much sooner than international heavy ones.

Flights that feed international could be 2022+. International will come back much slower as will those feeder flights, I expect domestic to come back much sooner.

The mostly domestic hubs I think/hope are all running mini versions of themselves this summer. Everyone will still have planes parked and be running much much smaller .

Look for focus cities and o&d routes to get the ax too before hubs. Demand is impossible to know. Hub flying is safer. I think the big 3 with hubs will have a huge advantage over frontier and allegiant and southwest. The big 3 can just fly hub routes and swap planes based on demand it's impossible to know what routes or segments will come back when.
 
LongLayover
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:48 am

PHXWRLD wrote:
I wanted to start a discussion to get all of your opinions on what are the most likely US3 hubs to get dehubbed because of the coronavirus and the likely incoming recession. Here are the possibilities I see for each carrier:

DL: Their new coastal hubs in BOS and SEA seem vulnerable, as does LAX to a lesser extent. Also could see DTW or MSP getting significantly drawn down.

UA: LAX has been reduced much recently already, so this seems likely to go unfortunately. The recent IAD build up seems likely to be reversed as well.

AA: LAX seems vulnerable for AA too, apparently it and NYC are the big money losers. DFW will also almost definitely get drawn down as it has gotten way too much capacity added lately. DCA and PHX seem the safest given their high yielding O&D.




I can't see any hubs being closed. Significant reductions will happen, but then they will rebound.

AA: PHX is a great city with a lot of O/D, however it is not high yielding. The AA hubs will all likely see reductions, some more than others. They will likely not be closed.
 
NYCAAer
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:01 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
None of them are in danger of being dehubbed. All of them will lose capacity.


Best statement on airliners.net. We can eliminate these threads on UA and DL emerging as smaller carriers with this one quote. Everyone keeps saying hubs here or there are going to close, so much speculation. I think the US3 will just fly whatever works from each hub that they already have and then take things from there.

And to the people saying JFK/LGA are not profitable for AA, yes, we have been told by management many times over as AA employees that the New York operation is profitable. Unfortunately, they downsized NYC to the routes that are profitable, but before Covid-19, it was still making money.
 
716131
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:23 am

PHXWRLD wrote:
I wanted to start a discussion to get all of your opinions on what are the most likely US3 hubs to get dehubbed because of the coronavirus and the likely incoming recession. Here are the possibilities I see for each carrier:

DL: Their new coastal hubs in BOS and SEA seem vulnerable, as does LAX to a lesser extent. Also could see DTW or MSP getting significantly drawn down.

UA: LAX has been reduced much recently already, so this seems likely to go unfortunately. The recent IAD build up seems likely to be reversed as well.

AA: LAX seems vulnerable for AA too, apparently it and NYC are the big money losers. DFW will also almost definitely get drawn down as it has gotten way too much capacity added lately. DCA and PHX seem the safest given their high yielding O&D.

I don't see them regarding it will closed. I only see them just "reduced" instead.
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
evank516
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:45 am

I have to wonder if RDU is going to survive as a DL focus city.
 
strfyr51
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:32 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
None of them are in danger of being dehubbed. All of them will lose capacity.

I agree with you. Even reducing flights will be an all over experience for all the major Carriers (and all other US Carriers for that matter) But nobody will give up their Hubs Just as the Airports will not forgo any of their rent for the terminals.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:13 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Tell that to MIT and Anthony Fauci.

Would happily do so.

I mean, who here is naive enough to believe that ANYONE has an inarguable grasp, at this point in time, with the scope of what they're dealing with in this?



evank516 wrote:
I have to wonder if RDU is going to survive as a DL focus city.

Even DL might not know the concise answer to that, currently.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
AIRT0M
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:20 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
If, as some anticipate COVID-19 returns in N autumn/winte

That's of course, assuming that it'll go away for late spring/summer... for which there's little evidence to support.


Tell that to MIT and Anthony Fauci.


It won’t go away completely of course, but yes there is ample evidence it will slow down in warm humid weather. That doesn’t mean infected people can’t flood a warm humid city and spread it (like Madrid Gras or Saint Patrick’s day in New Orleans), but yes there’s plenty of evidence.


There is no evidence at all. Covid19 is starting to spread like crazy in South Asia and Africa ... despite warm and humid weather. This myth has been debunked already a long time ago.

And Mardi ...not Madrid.
 
eurotrader85
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:28 pm

AA already discussed in detail on other chain viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1443699
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:23 pm

AIRT0M wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
That's of course, assuming that it'll go away for late spring/summer... for which there's little evidence to support.


Tell that to MIT and Anthony Fauci.


It won’t go away completely of course, but yes there is ample evidence it will slow down in warm humid weather. That doesn’t mean infected people can’t flood a warm humid city and spread it (like Madrid Gras or Saint Patrick’s day in New Orleans), but yes there’s plenty of evidence.


There is no evidence at all. Covid19 is starting to spread like crazy in South Asia and Africa ... despite warm and humid weather. This myth has been debunked already a long time ago.

And Mardi ...not Madrid.


Youve never gone through the data have you? I can tell because youre making ridiculous false equivalences. Nobody is saying that hot humid weather stops the spread completely. But the evidence is there that it will slow the virus' spread.

Case in point, look at countries like Thailand and the Philippines. They reported their first cases long before Italy did. Said countries are far more dense in population, they have far few resources to fight this, they have far more economic and business ties, and they have many more flights between the affected areas of China. There are 1075 cases in the Philippines and 1388 cases in Thailand currently. Italy has 92,472 cases. If weather made no difference in spread, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia all though have well over 100,000 cases if not many more. They all reported cases before Europe, they are much more dense, and have fewer resources.

Ive read the WHO situation reports every single day for the last month. In the last 72 hours, here are the largest number of increases by country:

US: 39,841
Spain: 24,818
Italy: 18,086
Germany: 16,039
France: 12,225
Iran: 8,931
UK: 7,650

Now comparing to Southeast Asia bearing in mind the virus is MUCH older, had MUCH more time to spread, and in a MUCH higher population density in these countries than in the US or Europe:

Thailand: 454
Philippines: 439
Indonesia: 365
Singapore: 171
Vietnam: 38

You also mentioned hot humid countries in Africa, of those that meet that qualification, here are those numbers. South Africa isnt humid, but Ill include it too:

South Africa: 478
Ghana: 69
Mauritius: 54
Rwanda: 20
Nigeria: 19

Ill grant you the virus is newer in Africa so we dont exactly get great data from there just yet.

Here is South America (again only counting countries that are hot and humid so no Chile, Uruguay, or Argentina)

Brazil: 984
Ecuador: 612 (the majority of cases are in the Tropical city of Guayaquil but its important to consider, the first case appeared only 10 days after the first case in Milan)
Mexico: 239
Panama: 228
Dominican Republic: 189 (first cases were imported from NYC)
Peru: 155

These numbers come from the WHO:

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... on-reports

To be clear, NOBODY is saying that the heat and humidity will stop the spread of the virus completely. But the evidence is absolutely there to suggest that it slows the spread of the virus. MIT did a thorough study as did the University of Maryland and our nations leading expert on this virus agrees.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/ ... ronavirus/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/coronav ... cycle.html
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
theasianguy
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:08 pm

I'd expect all airline hubs to shrink in the near term. Delta's newest hubs in BOS and SEA are probably the most in jeopardy, as well as its focus cities in CVG and RDU.

Things could get interesting at LAX, where no carrier has a dominant hub. All carriers will scale back, but the first one to build LAX back up may have a chance at grabbing extra market share. If Alaska decides to shrink LAX to fight DL at SEA, I could see UA and AA competing for Terminal 6. In the end, AA will choose to focus on either LAX or PHX, and downsize the other.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:23 pm

Back on topic, if were talking about the core hubs of the airline:

UA: DEN, ORD, IAH, EWR, SFO, IAD, LAX
AA: DFW, CLT, MIA, PHL, LAX, ORD, PHX
DL: ATL, DTW, SLC, MSP, LAX

The answer is that there is a zero percent chance any of the above get dehubbed.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
BenflysDTW
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:13 pm

I myself wouldn’t say that LAX is a core hub for Delta, although they are doing some massive renovation projects. What about all the PP routes from LAS?
Including LAS-LGB/SAN/SJC/SNA/RDU and PDX begins on April 1st.
Some of the recent transcontinental adds are likely at risk such as CVG-PHX and DTW-SMF.
 
PHLspecial
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:30 pm

PHXWRLD wrote:
PHX seem the safest given their high yielding O&D.


Yeah okay bud. You are assuming people have money to spend after this. Enjoy your fantasy
 
johns624
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:47 pm

PHXWRLD wrote:

DL: Their new coastal hubs in BOS and SEA seem vulnerable, as does LAX to a lesser extent.
UA: LAX has been reduced much recently already, so this seems likely to go unfortunately.
AA: LAX seems vulnerable for AA too

So the US3 are all going to dehub LAX? Ever tried standup? I didn't think so...
 
bfitzflyer
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:32 pm

OK will take a stab at this given at the moment this is catastrophic for the industry and I am sure i will get beat up, but here goes what I think you could see say in the next year or two as the industry hopefully recovers.

AA
PHL - shrink transatlantic will take a while to recover
DCA - safe
CLT - Shrink say 20 percent
MIA - Shrink a lot with international routes hurting, but probably not as much as it should with DL jv with LATAm
ORD - shrink say 20 percent
DFW - Shrink 20 percent
PHX - most at risk given geographies and duplication from LAX/DFW - Shrink 50 percent, if goes on for 2 years could be gone
LAX - Shrink 20 percent

AS
Basically retreats or shrinks in all markets except SEA, and SEA say 30 percent drop

B6
JFK and BOS both down 25 percent, FLL cut in half

DL
ATL - shrink 25 percent with international hit hard
JFK - Shrink 30 to 40 percent driven by international
LGA - Mostly safe but maybe 10 percent
DTW - shrink 20 percent
RDU - focus city shut down
BOS - cut in half
MSP - probably 10 to 15 percent down
SLC - Shrink 20 percent
LAX - Shrink 25 percent and consolidate in terminal 2 while construction goes on at 3
SEA- Shrink 30 percent

UA
SFO - 25 or 30 percent given international routes
DEN - 25 percent yes I know they are getting more gates, but will be fine longer term
ORD - 20 percent international driven, but will play chicken with AA to see who shrinks more
IAH - 25 percent, international driven but some domestic too
DUL - 50 percent will use EWR more
EWR - 20 percent could be worse bu think some DUL connections will route here
LAX - 30 percent, international driven

SW - top markets, 5 that I can think of - not hit as hard minor international
MDW - 10 percent
DEN - 15 percent
DAL - 10 percent
BWI - 15 percent
IAH - 20 percent more Caribbean/ Mex from here

Just a stab at this, could be worse or hopefully far better. Honestly depends on how long this lasts and how long economy takes to recover.
 
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yeogeo
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:42 pm

bfitzflyer wrote:
DUL
:dopey:
 
bfitzflyer
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Re: US3 Hubs Most Likely to get Dehubbed because of COVID

Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:43 pm

yeogeo wrote:
bfitzflyer wrote:
DUL
:dopey:


oops IAD, wasn't thinking...

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