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Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:25 am
by flee
Flightglobal has a piece about Boeing's woes and how the US government may need to bail it out of its current woes:
https://www.flightglobal.com/flight-int ... 37.article

It is really ironic that Boeing is now about to do the same thing as Airbus - getting direct subsidies from the govt. Will Airbus file a WTO complaint or will it ask the EU govts for help too?

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:34 am
by lhrnue
There are companies no government in world would let go bankrupt. Boeing and Airbus are for sure among them as they are too important for the nations defence.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:40 am
by IWMBH
Airbus already has a WTO-case against Boeing, the outcome is due within the next months. Airbus claims that Boeing received government subsidies in the form of government contracts. Boeing actually took some measures to prevent it already.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/19/busi ... s-wto.html

But, yes Boeing is too big to fail. And yes, the government help will probably be used in one of the many disputes Airbus and Boeing have at the WTO.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:54 am
by Cointrin330
Boeing is indeed too big to fail and will be rescued for a number of reasons including the massive jobs that would be wiped out if Boeing were to go under, the fact that Boeing is a defense contractor, and its role and place in the American economy. Will it remain in its present form? That is debatable. It could be broken up into new entities. The 737 MAX will never fly again. The plane is clearly a piece of junk and given how long it has been grounded, the cost of the fixes and restart process for them will be unimaginable. My sense is the entire production of the MAX will be stripped and the company forced to go back to the drawing board.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:44 pm
by GalaxyFlyer
No thing or person is too big to fail. Boeing has businesses that would come out of bankruptcy as profitable concerns. I believe a few bankruptcies of these “too big to fail” firms would over the long run be a economic benefit. It would end the 737 MAX.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:06 pm
by asr0dzjq
IWMBH wrote:
Airbus already has a WTO-case against Boeing, the outcome is due within the next months. Airbus claims that Boeing received government subsidies in the form of government contracts. Boeing actually took some measures to prevent it already.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/19/busi ... s-wto.html

But, yes Boeing is too big to fail. And yes, the government help will probably be used in one of the many disputes Airbus and Boeing have at the WTO.

Cointrin330 wrote:
Boeing is indeed too big to fail and will be rescued for a number of reasons including the massive jobs that would be wiped out if Boeing were to go under, the fact that Boeing is a defense contractor, and its role and place in the American economy. Will it remain in its present form? That is debatable. It could be broken up into new entities. The 737 MAX will never fly again. The plane is clearly a piece of junk and given how long it has been grounded, the cost of the fixes and restart process for them will be unimaginable. My sense is the entire production of the MAX will be stripped and the company forced to go back to the drawing board.

1. No company is too big to fail.
2. The 737 Max will almost surely fly again.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:18 pm
by FlyingBlueKLM
Cointrin330 wrote:
Boeing is indeed too big to fail and will be rescued for a number of reasons including the massive jobs that would be wiped out if Boeing were to go under, the fact that Boeing is a defense contractor, and its role and place in the American economy. Will it remain in its present form? That is debatable. It could be broken up into new entities. The 737 MAX will never fly again. The plane is clearly a piece of junk and given how long it has been grounded, the cost of the fixes and restart process for them will be unimaginable. My sense is the entire production of the MAX will be stripped and the company forced to go back to the drawing board.

I agree. Boeing said they absolutely will NOT replace, add something to, or upgrade the MCAS computer. They will only write a few new lines of code. Unacceptable in my opinion. I doubt it if EASA will ever accept that.

I don’t think Boeing will ever be broken up into separate companies.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:35 pm
by asr0dzjq
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
I agree. Boeing said they absolutely will NOT replace, add something to, or upgrade the MCAS computer. They will only write a few new lines of code. Unacceptable in my opinion. I doubt it if EASA will ever accept that.

I don’t think Boeing will ever be broken up into separate companies.

If they still rely on any less than three sensors, there's a problem. The MCAS's computer ABSOLUTELY needs an upgrade.
Boeing have now officially become the most hero-to-zero company in the history of aviation.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:44 pm
by Cointrin330
asr0dzjq wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
Airbus already has a WTO-case against Boeing, the outcome is due within the next months. Airbus claims that Boeing received government subsidies in the form of government contracts. Boeing actually took some measures to prevent it already.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/19/busi ... s-wto.html

But, yes Boeing is too big to fail. And yes, the government help will probably be used in one of the many disputes Airbus and Boeing have at the WTO.

Cointrin330 wrote:
Boeing is indeed too big to fail and will be rescued for a number of reasons including the massive jobs that would be wiped out if Boeing were to go under, the fact that Boeing is a defense contractor, and its role and place in the American economy. Will it remain in its present form? That is debatable. It could be broken up into new entities. The 737 MAX will never fly again. The plane is clearly a piece of junk and given how long it has been grounded, the cost of the fixes and restart process for them will be unimaginable. My sense is the entire production of the MAX will be stripped and the company forced to go back to the drawing board.

1. No company is too big to fail.
2. The 737 Max will almost surely fly again.


You underestimate the greed and insatiable appetite for influence over corporations that a Republican Administration wields over corporate America. The MAX won't fly.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:04 pm
by FlyingBlueKLM
asr0dzjq wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
I agree. Boeing said they absolutely will NOT replace, add something to, or upgrade the MCAS computer. They will only write a few new lines of code. Unacceptable in my opinion. I doubt it if EASA will ever accept that.

I don’t think Boeing will ever be broken up into separate companies.

If they still rely on any less than three sensors, there's a problem. The MCAS's computer ABSOLUTELY needs an upgrade.
Boeing have now officially become the most hero-to-zero company in the history of aviation.

I agree.

The MAX always had 2 AoA sensors. But MCAS only used 1 AoA sensor at a time, there was no redundancy. If “only writing a few lines of extra code” means they’ll have dual redundancy it’s still unacceptable in my opinion. In September 2019, EASA said they “prefer triple redundancy”. I don’t know if EASA currently requires triple redundancy (3 sensors) for the MAX. I would be shocked if EASA said: triple redundancy is not a requirement.

In my opinion it seems like even Boeing doesn’t care about the MAX right now.

Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maneuve ... ion_System

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2020 6:31 pm
by GalaxyFlyer
Cointrin330 wrote:
asr0dzjq wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
Airbus already has a WTO-case against Boeing, the outcome is due within the next months. Airbus claims that Boeing received government subsidies in the form of government contracts. Boeing actually took some measures to prevent it already.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/19/busi ... s-wto.html

But, yes Boeing is too big to fail. And yes, the government help will probably be used in one of the many disputes Airbus and Boeing have at the WTO.

Cointrin330 wrote:
Boeing is indeed too big to fail and will be rescued for a number of reasons including the massive jobs that would be wiped out if Boeing were to go under, the fact that Boeing is a defense contractor, and its role and place in the American economy. Will it remain in its present form? That is debatable. It could be broken up into new entities. The 737 MAX will never fly again. The plane is clearly a piece of junk and given how long it has been grounded, the cost of the fixes and restart process for them will be unimaginable. My sense is the entire production of the MAX will be stripped and the company forced to go back to the drawing board.

1. No company is too big to fail.
2. The 737 Max will almost surely fly again.


You underestimate the greed and insatiable appetite for influence over corporations that a Republican Administration wields over corporate America. The MAX won't fly.


If that’s true, how come this Republican Administration hasn’t folded over letting the MAX fly? They’re the ones holding up the recertification.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:31 pm
by IWMBH
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
asr0dzjq wrote:

1. No company is too big to fail.
2. The 737 Max will almost surely fly again.


You underestimate the greed and insatiable appetite for influence over corporations that a Republican Administration wields over corporate America. The MAX won't fly.


If that’s true, how come this Republican Administration hasn’t folded over letting the MAX fly? They’re the ones holding up the recertification.


I don’t think Boeing will go bankrupt. Boeing will live on because there is no equal. There are hundreds of banks In the USA, but there is one major civil aircraft manufacturer. No government throws that away.

I’m also absolutely convinced that the MAX will fly again. The Corona virus even helps because airlines are fine with delaying their orders on Boeing’s expense.

Boeing is in a bad place right now, but they’ll survive.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:45 pm
by Cointrin330
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
asr0dzjq wrote:

1. No company is too big to fail.
2. The 737 Max will almost surely fly again.


You underestimate the greed and insatiable appetite for influence over corporations that a Republican Administration wields over corporate America. The MAX won't fly.


If that’s true, how come this Republican Administration hasn’t folded over letting the MAX fly? They’re the ones holding up the recertification.


You will not find me defending this administration but it's been made abundantly clear that the MAX has numerous design flaws (not just one). Why rush? Planes aren't flying and won't be any time soon. Could looser regulations broadly supported by this administration since taking office not have contributed to a rush to certify a jalopy of an aircraft built with greed and arrogance?

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:02 am
by flee
Boeing's woes did not happen overnight. The past 15-20 years saw greed and incompetence grow in the company. Executives took bonuses they did not deserve. Workers were shabbily treated. Suppliers were squeezed till they were virtually not making much money. Does the Federal govt. want to bail out such a morally bankrupt company without imposing stringent conditions?

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:08 am
by blacksoviet
If Trump wanted to do the right thing he would let Boeing go bankrupt (which would erase the debt) and bring in new owners/management. No need to bail them out. Bill Clinton didn’t bail out McDonnell Douglas and the sky never fell. I don’t think the airlines should get bailed out either.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:58 am
by asr0dzjq
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
The MAX always had 2 AoA sensors. But MCAS only used 1 AoA sensor at a time, there was no redundancy. If “only writing a few lines of extra code” means they’ll have dual redundancy it’s still unacceptable in my opinion. In September 2019, EASA said they “prefer triple redundancy”. I don’t know if EASA currently requires triple redundancy (3 sensors) for the MAX. I would be shocked if EASA said: triple redundancy is not a requirement.

Even the EASA are faltering, I see. They should change that to "require a minimum of triple redundancy".

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
You underestimate the greed and insatiable appetite for influence over corporations that a Republican Administration wields over corporate America. The MAX won't fly.

If that’s true, how come this Republican Administration hasn’t folded over letting the MAX fly? They’re the ones holding up the recertification.

I'm approximately 36% confident in the Max now flying, but all that's left to do is the near-impossible task of getting the media to stop churning out clickbait and fear-mongering headlines in order to prey off the general public and induce infinite amounts of FU&D.

flee wrote:
Boeing's woes did not happen overnight. The past 15-20 years saw greed and incompetence grow in the company. Executives took bonuses they did not deserve. Workers were shabbily treated. Suppliers were squeezed till they were virtually not making much money. Does the Federal govt. want to bail out such a morally bankrupt company without imposing stringent conditions?

Cointrin330 wrote:
You will not find me defending this administration but it's been made abundantly clear that the MAX has numerous design flaws (not just one). Why rush? Planes aren't flying and won't be any time soon. Could looser regulations broadly supported by this administration since taking office not have contributed to a rush to certify a jalopy of an aircraft built with greed and arrogance?

Wasn't Muilenberg being booted out already a step? All that's left is to remove anyone in management responsible for this crisis and lock them all up in ADX Florence's worst rooms, then replace them with people who actually put safety ahead of priority. It is clear that $hitty management allowed the complacentness arrogance to grow, so why not? After all, they brought Douglas down from Hero to Zero with the DC-10's problems, and the MD-80 was their last successful airplane, ultimately leading to Douglas Aircraft's death in 2006 (their effective date of death was 23 May 2006, the day the last 717's were delivered).

Can't wait until Boeing put up big banners on their factories saying "UNDER NEW MANAGEMENT". They're gonna need it.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:00 pm
by FlyingBlueKLM
blacksoviet wrote:
If Trump wanted to do the right thing he would let Boeing go bankrupt (which would erase the debt) and bring in new owners/management. No need to bail them out. Bill Clinton didn’t bail out McDonnell Douglas and the sky never fell. I don’t think the airlines should get bailed out either.

I agree. But maybe Clinton didn’t care that much about Douglas because America also has Boeing. I don’t know if Douglas’ greed also was a reason for Clinton not to bail out Douglas. In my opinion Boeing should have gone bankrupt. I don’t think there will ever be a culture change from greed to innovation at Boeing, sadly. But Boeing is in separate divisions. Please correct me if I’m wrong, but does this mean that BCA could go bankrupt, even though Boeing Defence would still exist?

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:20 pm
by asr0dzjq
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
If Trump wanted to do the right thing he would let Boeing go bankrupt (which would erase the debt) and bring in new owners/management. No need to bail them out. Bill Clinton didn’t bail out McDonnell Douglas and the sky never fell. I don’t think the airlines should get bailed out either.

I agree. But maybe Clinton didn’t care that much about Douglas because America also has Boeing. I don’t know if Douglas’ greed also was a reason for Clinton not to bail out Douglas. In my opinion Boeing should have gone bankrupt. I don’t think there will ever be a culture change from greed to innovation at Boeing, sadly. But Boeing is in separate divisions. Please correct me if I’m wrong, but does this mean that BCA could go bankrupt, even though Boeing Defence would still exist?

If I were making decisions, I would rename Boeing Defence back to McDonnell-Douglas, then sell Boeing's name, branding, and everything on Boeing's commercial side to either Lockheed or General Dynamics. Boeing would become "Lockheed Martin corporation, Boeing Commercial Airplanes division" or something like that.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:15 pm
by VSMUT
asr0dzjq wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
If Trump wanted to do the right thing he would let Boeing go bankrupt (which would erase the debt) and bring in new owners/management. No need to bail them out. Bill Clinton didn’t bail out McDonnell Douglas and the sky never fell. I don’t think the airlines should get bailed out either.

I agree. But maybe Clinton didn’t care that much about Douglas because America also has Boeing. I don’t know if Douglas’ greed also was a reason for Clinton not to bail out Douglas. In my opinion Boeing should have gone bankrupt. I don’t think there will ever be a culture change from greed to innovation at Boeing, sadly. But Boeing is in separate divisions. Please correct me if I’m wrong, but does this mean that BCA could go bankrupt, even though Boeing Defence would still exist?

If I were making decisions, I would rename Boeing Defence back to McDonnell-Douglas, then sell Boeing's name, branding, and everything on Boeing's commercial side to either Lockheed or General Dynamics. Boeing would become "Lockheed Martin corporation, Boeing Commercial Airplanes division" or something like that.


Don't forget Textron Aviation. Arguably a better fit for the commercial products than Lockheed Martin, who showed a disdain for that side of the market when they took Sikorsky.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:25 pm
by asr0dzjq
VSMUT wrote:
asr0dzjq wrote:
FlyingBlueKLM wrote:
I agree. But maybe Clinton didn’t care that much about Douglas because America also has Boeing. I don’t know if Douglas’ greed also was a reason for Clinton not to bail out Douglas. In my opinion Boeing should have gone bankrupt. I don’t think there will ever be a culture change from greed to innovation at Boeing, sadly. But Boeing is in separate divisions. Please correct me if I’m wrong, but does this mean that BCA could go bankrupt, even though Boeing Defence would still exist?

If I were making decisions, I would rename Boeing Defence back to McDonnell-Douglas, then sell Boeing's name, branding, and everything on Boeing's commercial side to either Lockheed or General Dynamics. Boeing would become "Lockheed Martin corporation, Boeing Commercial Airplanes division" or something like that.


Don't forget Textron Aviation. Arguably a better fit for the commercial products than Lockheed Martin, who showed a disdain for that side of the market when they took Sikorsky.

Good point.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:57 pm
by trpmb6
asr0dzjq wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
asr0dzjq wrote:
If I were making decisions, I would rename Boeing Defence back to McDonnell-Douglas, then sell Boeing's name, branding, and everything on Boeing's commercial side to either Lockheed or General Dynamics. Boeing would become "Lockheed Martin corporation, Boeing Commercial Airplanes division" or something like that.


Don't forget Textron Aviation. Arguably a better fit for the commercial products than Lockheed Martin, who showed a disdain for that side of the market when they took Sikorsky.

Good point.



Textron Aviation is run by a bunch of former GE folks. It'd be a disaster.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:58 pm
by DFW17L
Cointrin330 wrote:
Boeing is indeed too big to fail and will be rescued for a number of reasons including the massive jobs that would be wiped out if Boeing were to go under...


I don't think job losses are a consideration. For example, in the early 70s, employment dropped from 120,000+ to about 39,000 in less than three years; primarily in the Puget Sound area. Yes, it was extremely brutal, but I don't believe anyone was suggesting they were too big to fail.

m2c.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:23 pm
by VSMUT
trpmb6 wrote:
asr0dzjq wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

Don't forget Textron Aviation. Arguably a better fit for the commercial products than Lockheed Martin, who showed a disdain for that side of the market when they took Sikorsky.

Good point.



Textron Aviation is run by a bunch of former GE folks. It'd be a disaster.


As opposed to Lockheed Martin, who couldn't sell a hot commodity without bribing the management and some politicians first? The first thing LM would do would be to stuff the 737MAX with an expensive and faulty fault-finding system that orders unneccesary spare parts for itself.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:15 pm
by Aither
DFW17L wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
Boeing is indeed too big to fail and will be rescued for a number of reasons including the massive jobs that would be wiped out if Boeing were to go under...


I don't think job losses are a consideration. For example, in the early 70s, employment dropped from 120,000+ to about 39,000 in less than three years; primarily in the Puget Sound area. Yes, it was extremely brutal, but I don't believe anyone was suggesting they were too big to fail.

m2c.


It's about dozens, maybe hundreds of millions of jobs :
Boeing commercial goes bankrupt -> many suppliers go bankrupt -> Airbus goes bankrupt -> the aviation industry goes bankrupt -> the travel/tourism etc.goes bankrupt.
Some don't realize that the 737max problems are putting many suppliers in a distress situation worse than Boeing. Suppliers that are also the suppliers of Airbus and MROs. Airbus probably wants the max to be back in service as well.

The truth is countries that heavily depend on air travel (basically all developed countries + touristic places) should also bail out the manufacturers and their suppliers if needed. Starting with China.

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:23 am
by asr0dzjq
VSMUT wrote:
As opposed to Lockheed Martin, who couldn't sell a hot commodity without bribing the management and some politicians first? The first thing LM would do would be to stuff the 737MAX with an expensive and faulty fault-finding system that orders unneccesary spare parts for itself.

:rotfl: