When should we expect to see international travel restrictions lifted? It seems that the benefits of restricting travel between countries with comparable transmission risk are limited if precaution measures are put in place...

Once the countries get their own houses in order they may be able to start relaxing some of the restrictions...

I think Europe will be way more cautious compared to the US when it comes to owning up borders. For a timeline I see the US rebounding slightly around June/July and Europe more so in the fall.

I'd say it will be months, some earlier, others later. I can only speak for SJO, but given the situation in neighbouring Nicaragua (where nothing is being done against COVID-19), it is possible that even when the borders reopen (be it on April 30, or later), that there may be some local restrictions in place for countries such as Nicaragua. I'd go as far as to predict that air travel to/from Nicaragua would continue to be banned for a while longer, with people coming from Nicaragua being required to travel individually by car, or by coach via the land borders (mostly through Peñas Blancas).

In the case of the US, whenever the ban on non-essential travel into the country is lifted, I'd assume that China would still be heavily restricted (apparently, Wuhan went back into lockdown recently), while restrictions for EU countries could be slightly less as strict, but only slightly. The problem with travel to/from the EU is the fact that most EU nations are in the Schengen area, where there are only few places with border checks (mostly the land borders between Germany and Austria due to the immigration crisis, Germany and France, and let's not forget that France has currently still air travel passport control). That itself would make the restrictions for the entire Schengen-Area (not just e.g. Spain and Italy), even if you come from a less affected country. Latin America would, depending on the nation, be less restricted than both China and the EU, even the UK.

LTU932 wrote:

I'd say it will be months, some earlier, others later. I can only speak for SJO, but given the situation in neighbouring Nicaragua (where nothing is being done against COVID-19), it is possible that even when the borders reopen (be it on April 30, or later), that there may be some local restrictions in place for countries such as Nicaragua. I'd go as far as to predict that air travel to/from Nicaragua would continue to be banned for a while longer, with people coming from Nicaragua being required to travel individually by car, or by coach via the land borders (mostly through Peñas Blancas).

In the case of the US, whenever the ban on non-essential travel into the country is lifted, I'd assume that China would still be heavily restricted (apparently, Wuhan went back into lockdown recently), while restrictions for EU countries could be slightly less as strict, but only slightly. The problem with travel to/from the EU is the fact that most EU nations are in the Schengen area, where there are only few places with border checks (mostly the land borders between Germany and Austria due to the immigration crisis, Germany and France, and let's not forget that France has currently still air travel passport control). That itself would make the restrictions for the entire Schengen-Area (not just e.g. Spain and Italy), even if you come from a less affected country. Latin America would, depending on the nation, be less restricted than both China and the EU, even the UK.

To my knowledge Wuhan ended lockdown on April 8. There is no information to indicate they have gone back in to lockdown.

Forbes recently had an article that indicates that the EU is considering banning foreign travelers until September. But nothing definitive has yet been decided.

A333MSPtoAMS wrote:

To my knowledge Wuhan ended lockdown on April 8. There is no information to indicate they have gone back in to lockdown.

I wouldn't rely on that. We've already been burned once when the subject of human to human transmission came up. And without going political, but China is known to keep lots of things under wraps.

LTU932 wrote:

ghtly. The problem with travel to/from the EU is the fact that most EU nations are in the Schengen area, where there are only few places with border checks (mostly the land borders between Germany and Austria due to the immigration crisis, Germany and France, and let's not forget that France has currently still air travel passport control). That itself would make the restrictions for the entire Schengen-Area (not just e.g. Spain and Italy), even if you come from a less affected country. Latin America would, depending on the nation, be less restricted than both China and the EU, even the UK.

Schengen area has been put on hold indefinitely, border controls within Schengen have been restored and every country has its borders closed. Only repatriation and essentials (transborder workers, medical emergencies, diplomats and gov't officials) are allowed croos borders by air, sea or land.

LTU932 wrote:

A333MSPtoAMS wrote:

To my knowledge Wuhan ended lockdown on April 8. There is no information to indicate they have gone back in to lockdown.

I wouldn't rely on that. We've already been burned once when the subject of human to human transmission came up. And without going political, but China is known to keep lots of things under wraps.

There are many western journalists in Wuhan and across Hubei province and I haven't seen any of them reporting that a lockdown is coming back.

upperdeckfan wrote:

Schengen area has been put on hold indefinitely, border controls within Schengen have been restored and every country has its borders closed. Only repatriation and essentials (transborder workers, medical emergencies, diplomats and gov't officials) are allowed croos borders by air, sea or land.

Ever since the immigration crisis started in 2015, there have been lots of doubts about not having border controls within the EU. I personally think that the Schengen area is doomed to fail. First the immigration crisis, now the Coronavirus, and I think that these border controls, which local governments may consider permanent, are here to stay, and it will cause that terminals for Schengen-flights will have to have permanent passport control for flying in and out, unless they decide to just have passport control for inbound Schengen flights and not control exits (which I doubt).

I really hope a good chunk of them are lifted before December holidays.

acavpics wrote:

I really hope a good chunk of them are lifted before December holidays.

Existing evidence for the benefits of travel restrictions shows that they only help during containment in early phases, but have limited effects later as the disease spreads in the community... So hopefully governments will not wait too long!

acavpics wrote:

I really hope a good chunk of them are lifted before December holidays.

If we can get this thing contained, we could really use a reactivation of flights to Europe here in SJO. But we need to be methodical and do it in such a way that things don't spiral out of control. Costa Rica is in enough economic trouble, the shutdown of the tourism industry has been near fatal to the economy so far. And the lockdown has done its share as well.

LTU932 wrote:

acavpics wrote:

I really hope a good chunk of them are lifted before December holidays.

If we can get this thing contained, we could really use a reactivation of flights to Europe here in SJO. But we need to be methodical and do it in such a way that things don't spiral out of control. Costa Rica is in enough economic trouble, the shutdown of the tourism industry has been near fatal to the economy so far. And the lockdown has done its share as well.

There is a good chance that we will have effective antiviral treatments along with subtle containment and mitigation efforts by nations all over the globe. And believe it or not, an Oxford Univ. scientists stated that a vaccine could be ready for mass production as early as October (A stark deviation from the "12-18 months" that we've been hearing).

Even if all this comes true, there will still be extra checks, medical screening etc at airports. But people will be more willing to return to the skies.

ProfH wrote:

acavpics wrote:

I really hope a good chunk of them are lifted before December holidays.

Existing evidence for the benefits of travel restrictions shows that they only help during containment in early phases, but have limited effects later as the disease spreads in the community... So hopefully governments will not wait too long!

That is under the hypothesis that both countries involved are in a late stage. As paradoxically as it sounds, the better a country has the outbreak under control the more it makes sense to restrict international arrivals from countries that have not.

That being said, domestic restrictions and in the case of the EU regional restrictions will have to fall first before people will think about re-opening things like transatlantic flights especially with current trends. That being said, I hope this is all over sooner than later and that with that international flights will return to the skies.

LGAviation wrote:

ProfH wrote:

acavpics wrote:

I really hope a good chunk of them are lifted before December holidays.

Existing evidence for the benefits of travel restrictions shows that they only help during containment in early phases, but have limited effects later as the disease spreads in the community... So hopefully governments will not wait too long!

That is under the hypothesis that both countries involved are in a late stage. As paradoxically as it sounds, the better a country has the outbreak under control the more it makes sense to restrict international arrivals from countries that have not.

That being said, domestic restrictions and in the case of the EU regional restrictions will have to fall first before people will think about re-opening things like transatlantic flights especially with current trends. That being said, I hope this is all over sooner than later and that with that international flights will return to the skies.

Agreed - some EU countries will be able to agree in a bilateral way to reopen flights, and hopefully the US will learn its lessons soon and bring the situation under control. I have made a similar argument for parity-based lifting of travel restrictions here.

ProfH wrote:

LGAviation wrote:

ProfH wrote:

Existing evidence for the benefits of travel restrictions shows that they only help during containment in early phases, but have limited effects later as the disease spreads in the community... So hopefully governments will not wait too long!

That is under the hypothesis that both countries involved are in a late stage. As paradoxically as it sounds, the better a country has the outbreak under control the more it makes sense to restrict international arrivals from countries that have not.

That being said, domestic restrictions and in the case of the EU regional restrictions will have to fall first before people will think about re-opening things like transatlantic flights especially with current trends. That being said, I hope this is all over sooner than later and that with that international flights will return to the skies.

Agreed - some EU countries will be able to agree in a bilateral way to reopen flights, and hopefully the US will learn its lessons soon and bring the situation under control. I have made a similar argument for parity-based lifting of travel restrictions here.

What do you think the US would need to do that it isn't already doing to "bring the situation under control?" Modeling suggests that the US is past peak infection/resource use; staying the course is a fair ask for travel to and from the US, but I'm not sure what evidence there is for additional measures.

Cubsrule wrote:

ProfH wrote:

LGAviation wrote:

That is under the hypothesis that both countries involved are in a late stage. As paradoxically as it sounds, the better a country has the outbreak under control the more it makes sense to restrict international arrivals from countries that have not.

That being said, domestic restrictions and in the case of the EU regional restrictions will have to fall first before people will think about re-opening things like transatlantic flights especially with current trends. That being said, I hope this is all over sooner than later and that with that international flights will return to the skies.

Agreed - some EU countries will be able to agree in a bilateral way to reopen flights, and hopefully the US will learn its lessons soon and bring the situation under control. I have made a similar argument for parity-based lifting of travel restrictions here.

What do you think the US would need to do that it isn't already doing to "bring the situation under control?" Modeling suggests that the US is past peak infection/resource use; staying the course is a fair ask for travel to and from the US, but I'm not sure what evidence there is for additional measures.

At this point, increase the number of tests so that risks of reopening borders can be better understood. And of course, greater federal coordination of resources and relief to regions most affected could have resulted in lower death rates and staff burden, but I agree situation is now improving.

To lift travel restrictions, I think we should wait another week or two, and start with the border to Canada to understand its effects. I think restarting travel to/from lower risk European destinations should follow 14 days after that so we have enough time to observe potential adverse consequences. If precautions are kept, however, I think some international travel should be allowed by mid-May, with gradual lifting of restrictions in biweekly increments.

I'm not a epidemiologist, virologist, or scientist by any measure. But I suspect that until there is an effective vaccine and a way to demonstrate you have gotten the dose, international travel will remain severely restricted. I can see having a Covid vaccine will be akin to having a visa (or maybe will be part of visa applications). Unless you have the vaccine and have an internationally-recognized way to demonstrate it, you won't be allowed on an international flight.

What makes me chuckle is the thought of anti-vaxxers having to get a vaccine to travel... hahaha.

LGAviation wrote:

ProfH wrote:

acavpics wrote:

I really hope a good chunk of them are lifted before December holidays.

Existing evidence for the benefits of travel restrictions shows that they only help during containment in early phases, but have limited effects later as the disease spreads in the community... So hopefully governments will not wait too long!

That is under the hypothesis that both countries involved are in a late stage. As paradoxically as it sounds, the better a country has the outbreak under control the more it makes sense to restrict international arrivals from countries that have not.

That being said, domestic restrictions and in the case of the EU regional restrictions will have to fall first before people will think about re-opening things like transatlantic flights especially with current trends. That being said, I hope this is all over sooner than later and that with that international flights will return to the skies.

Not really. Look at Singapore (I live there). Things were well contained from early January through to roughly the end of February. Community transmission was very low. Then when things got bad in Europe and the US, suddenly there was an influx of Singaporeans (students, people working overseas) who came back from the UK, US, and Australia (and some ASEAN/North Asia countries) and suddenly the infection rate shot up, with most new cases being imported. Once the borders were fully shut (and only citizens and permanent residents allowed to return, i.e. even people who have work visas for Singapore are no longer allowed to return), did the cases stabilize.