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An225
Topic Author
Posts: 271
Joined: Tue May 31, 2005 6:37 pm

COVI-19 and 737MAX - Killing it softly?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:31 pm

Hello all,
As COVID-19 pendemic causing havoc in the air transportation industry, while Boeing not being able to solve the Max's problem, we see airlines and lessors cancelling/deferring orders for the MAX. As we know the backlog is shrinking steadily (e.g., GE Capital cancells 69 frames) with 171 cancellations in 2020.

I wonder if this pendemic and its far reaching results will be a silent excuse to kill the 737MAX completely?

Please share your opinions,

An225
 
davidjohnson6
Posts: 954
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:10 pm

Re: COVI-19 and 737MAX - Killing it softly?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:23 pm

If the Max dies, then Boeing are giving up on short haul flying and give Airbus a monopoly. I see that as extremely unlikely
 
An225
Topic Author
Posts: 271
Joined: Tue May 31, 2005 6:37 pm

Re: COVI-19 and 737MAX - Killing it softly?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:37 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
If the Max dies, then Boeing are giving up on short haul flying and give Airbus a monopoly. I see that as extremely unlikely


Isn't it the status de-facto? Will that status really going to change given COVID-19 recovery will take at least 12 month, Boeing not being able to re-certify the MAX, and passengers negative-sentiment towards the type?

An225
 
lhrnue
Posts: 376
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 2:47 pm

Re: COVI-19 and 737MAX - Killing it softly?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:45 pm

Don't think the MAX will die … but it certainly looks like that some airlines/lessors use Covid as an opportunity to get out of it.
 
mmo
Posts: 2059
Joined: Thu Apr 18, 2013 3:04 pm

Re: COVI-19 and 737MAX - Killing it softly?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:48 pm

I think the exact opposite will occur. First of all, the MAX will get certified. Just like the DC-10 did and people didn't hesitate to fly the aircraft. I think this is a perfect time for the MAX to get certified. Airlines aren't in a capacity bind as they were last summer/fall. Airlines are parking older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. I know crude oil prices are below zero, but that will not last. What a better way to get a great deal. I think Boeing will be cutting some great deals to save the MAX. If DL is successful in trading their 717 fleet as part payment on the MAX, they are in a great position. They can tailor the delivery schedule to whatever they want. DL can stretch the delivery out to align with their best guess of traffic recovery.
If we weren't all crazy we'd all go insane!
 
airlineworker
Posts: 194
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:20 am

Re: COVI-19 and 737MAX - Killing it softly?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:59 pm

mmo wrote:
I think the exact opposite will occur. First of all, the MAX will get certified. Just like the DC-10 did and people didn't hesitate to fly the aircraft. I think this is a perfect time for the MAX to get certified. Airlines aren't in a capacity bind as they were last summer/fall. Airlines are parking older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. I know crude oil prices are below zero, but that will not last. What a better way to get a great deal. I think Boeing will be cutting some great deals to save the MAX. If DL is successful in trading their 717 fleet as part payment on the MAX, they are in a great position. They can tailor the delivery schedule to whatever they want. DL can stretch the delivery out to align with their best guess of traffic recovery.


I agree, Boeing has hundreds of new MAX's in storage and when the upgrades are completed, they will be ready to be delivered. Many carriers fly the 737 and many will need to be replaced and as far as people not wanting to fly the MAX, I have never been at an airport gate area and heard someone ask what aircraft will I be flying on.
Fares and frequent flyer programs are what customers ask about.
 
737max8
Posts: 648
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Re: COVI-19 and 737MAX - Killing it softly?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:58 pm

COVID-19 means airlines want to get rid of older, expensive planes and fly newer, more efficient jets. I also agree the MAX shall continue and sneak back in as airlines rebuild from this.

The fixed version will not be the same plane that went down in Indonesia and Ethiopia.
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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arcticcruiser
Posts: 457
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2017 2:16 pm

Re: COVI-19 and 737MAX - Killing it softly?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:16 pm

737max8 wrote:
COVID-19 means airlines want to get rid of older, expensive planes and fly newer, more efficient jets. I also agree the MAX shall continue and sneak back in as airlines rebuild from this.

The fixed version will not be the same plane that went down in Indonesia and Ethiopia.


Rrrriiiiight...
 
ordbosewr
Posts: 621
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 8:30 pm

Re: COVI-19 and 737MAX - Killing it softly?

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:28 pm

An225 wrote:
Hello all,
As COVID-19 pendemic causing havoc in the air transportation industry, while Boeing not being able to solve the Max's problem, we see airlines and lessors cancelling/deferring orders for the MAX. As we know the backlog is shrinking steadily (e.g., GE Capital cancells 69 frames) with 171 cancellations in 2020.

I wonder if this pendemic and its far reaching results will be a silent excuse to kill the 737MAX completely?

Please share your opinions,

An225


IMHO, killing the 737 MAX means you are killing Boeing as we know it (the financial hit that would take on the company would force them into bankruptcy) and all the jobs that they have throughout the supply chain. I do not think politically that is anything that any presidential candidate or president would want.

Not to mention that Boeing is a large defense contractor, so it is unlikely.
 
L0VE2FLY
Posts: 1013
Joined: Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:54 pm

Re: COVI-19 and 737MAX - Killing it softly?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:05 am

Due to the COVD-19 crisis Boeing will probably be paying a lot less in compensation to airlines affected by the MAX grounding while buying them precious time to work on the recertification, so if air travel rebounds relatively quickly it's not all bad news.
 
User avatar
flee
Posts: 1350
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: COVI-19 and 737MAX - Killing it softly?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:17 am

mmo wrote:
I think the exact opposite will occur. First of all, the MAX will get certified. Just like the DC-10 did and people didn't hesitate to fly the aircraft. I think this is a perfect time for the MAX to get certified. Airlines aren't in a capacity bind as they were last summer/fall. Airlines are parking older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. I know crude oil prices are below zero, but that will not last. What a better way to get a great deal. I think Boeing will be cutting some great deals to save the MAX. If DL is successful in trading their 717 fleet as part payment on the MAX, they are in a great position. They can tailor the delivery schedule to whatever they want. DL can stretch the delivery out to align with their best guess of traffic recovery.

The Covid-19 pandemic is actually working in Boeing's favour as now, not only the Max is grounded - the whole industry (except freight) is grounded! Yes, many orders are cancelled but the world economy is being reset. Most of the cancellations are from lessors taking the opportunity to cancel penalty free. When the world economy starts to recover, new orders will be placed but in lower numbers due to the lower oil prices.

DL's 717 fleet is very old and in need of replacement. I think that in times of low fuel prices airlines tend to keep their old aircraft (738s, A320s, etc.) longer. With the whole world economy being reset, demand levels are bound to be lower and oil prices should not rise too much until we see a resumption of growth (perhaps in 3 to 4 years).

Over the next decade, we will probably see more A320s in airline fleets as older 737s retire and fewer MAXs inducted. But the MAX will still be around, albeit in smaller numbers.
 
blueflyer
Posts: 4352
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 4:17 am

Re: COVI-19 and 737MAX - Killing it softly?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:13 am

737max8 wrote:
COVID-19 means airlines want to get rid of older, expensive planes and fly newer, more efficient jets. I also agree the MAX shall continue and sneak back in as airlines rebuild from this.

Not if they have to pay for the new jets, they'd rather keep the paid-for older planes At least for now.

mmo wrote:
If DL is successful in trading their 717 fleet as part payment on the MAX, they are in a great position.

Doesn't Delta already lease the 717s from Boeing? How do you turn them in as a payment on the MAX?
 
mmo
Posts: 2059
Joined: Thu Apr 18, 2013 3:04 pm

Re: COVI-19 and 737MAX - Killing it softly?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:43 am

blueflyer wrote:
Doesn't Delta already lease the 717s from Boeing? How do you turn them in as a payment on the MAX?


My understanding is some of them are leased through Boeing and some are owned by Delta. Do you think there were no upfront funds paid? Not quite like leasing a car. The entire "deal" represents cash flow to Boeing. Which can be used as leverage in a MAX deal.
If we weren't all crazy we'd all go insane!
 
chiad
Posts: 1332
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 4:24 pm

Re: COVI-19 and 737MAX - Killing it softly?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:01 am

737max8 wrote:
COVID-19 means airlines want to get rid of older, expensive planes and fly newer, more efficient jets. I also agree the MAX shall continue and sneak back in as airlines rebuild from this.


Is that what is means?
:scratchchin:
 
VSMUT
Posts: 4682
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: COVI-19 and 737MAX - Killing it softly?

Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:29 am

davidjohnson6 wrote:
If the Max dies, then Boeing are giving up on short haul flying and give Airbus a monopoly. I see that as extremely unlikely


Not quite. There are 2 other narrowbody aircraft in the final stages of development. We would have to give up some apprehensions about buying from Russia and China, but that's a different discussion.
 
f4f3a
Posts: 620
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2004 4:07 am

Re: COVI-19 and 737MAX - Killing it softly?

Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:16 pm

How many lines are there for 737. Couldn they shut down half and work on a clean sheet ? Production would be well down anyway even when this gets going again

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