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irishpower
Topic Author
Posts: 411
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 2:18 am

Future COVID impact on airlines and airports?

Sun May 10, 2020 7:23 pm

I'm assuming most airlines and airports will get some type of government bailout but which airlines and airports will be the most negatively effected by COVID?

Which airlines run the biggest risk of folding entirely?
Which airlines will have to drastically change their route structure, fleet and business model?
Which airports will take the longest to recover?
Which airports will have to shelve terminal expansion or runway expansion plans?
Which new airport construction projects will be canceled?
 
Vicenza
Posts: 28
Joined: Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: Future COVID impact on airlines and airports?

Sun May 10, 2020 7:30 pm

irishpower wrote:
I'm assuming most airlines and airports will get some type of government bailout but which airlines and airports will be the most negatively effected by COVID?

Which airlines run the biggest risk of folding entirely?
Which airlines will have to drastically change their route structure, fleet and business model?
Which airports will take the longest to recover?
Which airports will have to shelve terminal expansion or runway expansion plans?
Which new airport construction projects will be canceled?


In all honesty, I don't see it as possible for those to be answered, with each one depending on such a wide range of variables coupled with all five largely being connected/dependent on one another. Any answers, in my opinion, would be largely be beyond 'speculation' even a.net standards and more in the realms of pure guessing.
 
airhansa
Posts: 216
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Future COVID impact on airlines and airports?

Sun May 10, 2020 7:47 pm

I actually doubt that Asian airlines will be impacted too heavily because most of Asia has had the history of MERS and SARS to look back to and hence the people are more likely to leave their houses quicker. The economic impact has been less and saving rates are higher. I have a strong feeling that Virgin Australia and similar "third party" airlines in the West will fail due to differences in how westerners respond to the pandemic coupled with a dislike by Asians to visit the worse-off West in the aftermath of the pandemic. I suspect that there will be a long-term decline in the number of Asian students going to universities in Australia and the US, especially Australia.

I strongly suspect that Virgin Australia, Virgin Atlantic, Jet2, TUI, South African Airways, several low cost airlines (later on in the year), Norwegian, several brand consolidations in Europe, Alitalia, Jetstar, and several more.

I doubt that the Australian travel sector will get anywhere near pre-coronavirus levels for several years due to the sheer lack of demand from Chinese who have a strong China to stay in. It's also unlikely that people from Europe and the US will start flying "down under" anytime soon, so I except to see Australian and NZ airport hit quite badly. Essentially, most Australian airlines (except QANTAS) and all Australian airports will have collapsed demand for a long time.

The Middle Eastern airports will be hit badly and a lot of their airlines will reduce service dramatically, but they won't go under due to being national airlines - though consolidation is always a possibility.

East Asian airports should recover quickly, except for those that rely on western flyers (HKG and SIN). A number of airlines that are dependent on western travel (Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, Thai Airways) might need to shift attention to China.

London will get hit quite bad from a lack of demand, especially transatlantic travel between the two worst hit countries, compounded with the fact that LHR is probably one of the worst airports in the developed world in terms of infrastructure. I presume most of the impact will be felt on Italy and Spain where the coronavirus hit the hardest - perceptions of development and healthcare standards have plummeted and furthermore there will be a drastic reduction in Chinese tourists. I expect consolidation across the board from airlines and the collapse of Virgin Atlantic, Alitalia and Jet2.

Again, I feel that most European and American airports will shelve expansion plans, especially London which basically has three low cost airport hubs now. Hong Kong will recover to placate demand IMO since China isn't an easy country to enter for any foreigner, including Asians. I can see a major shift towards high-speed rail travel in Europe that will reduce the need for airport expansion but increase the need for rail infrastructure at airports.

(sorry for the messy paragraph structure but there's a lot of questions to be answered)
 
wlter88
Posts: 2
Joined: Thu May 14, 2020 9:14 am

Re: Future COVID impact on airlines and airports?

Fri May 15, 2020 7:16 pm

All the UK companies based, like Ryanair, Jet2 and easyjet will be hard damaged. Since they are connecting to Spain (Mallorca, Alicante, Barcelona, Madrid, Tenerife) and there will be reduced aroun 40% less.

Today the Palma Airport (PMI) announced to allow flights from EU day 23rd of June. At the same moment of the last year, there was 2.5M of travelers from UK. (From Jan-Jun)
 
avalon216
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon May 18, 2020 7:22 pm

Re: Future COVID impact on airlines and airports?

Tue May 19, 2020 12:45 am

airhansa wrote:
London will get hit quite bad from a lack of demand, especially transatlantic travel between the two worst hit countries, compounded with the fact that LHR is probably one of the worst airports in the developed world in terms of infrastructure. I presume most of the impact will be felt on Italy and Spain where the coronavirus hit the hardest - perceptions of development and healthcare standards have plummeted and furthermore there will be a drastic reduction in Chinese tourists. I expect consolidation across the board from airlines and the collapse of Virgin Atlantic, Alitalia and Jet2.

(sorry for the messy paragraph structure but there's a lot of questions to be answered)


Why do you expect Jet2 to collapse? Don't they have some of the lowest costs in the industry and strongest balance sheet?
 
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JannEejit
Posts: 1568
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 4:04 pm

Re: Future COVID impact on airlines and airports?

Wed May 20, 2020 3:46 pm

One of two Virgin Atlantic 747's stored at Glasgow (GLA), G-VROY has departed to MAN to join it's sister ships. The last 744, (G-VXLG) not currently at MAN will depart GLA tomorrow (Thurs) making the same journey. This will in effect, barring adhoc or diversions, be the final 747 movement out of GLA.

Image2020-05-20_04-39-29 by Jann Eejit, on Flickr

Photo by me.

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