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Airline industry without 9/11

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 10:19 pm
by seagulls2020
Recently, i was wondering what the airline industry would look like today has the September 11 attacks never taken place, along with the world as a whole.
I also concern over:
aircraft retirements
Security
Geopolitics

Re: Airline industry without 9/11

Posted: Thu May 21, 2020 11:01 pm
by atcsundevil
seagulls2020 wrote:
Recently, i was wondering what the airline industry would look like today has the September 11 attacks never taken place, along with the world as a whole.
I also concern over:
aircraft retirements
Security
Geopolitics

Your thread has been moved to the Travel, Polls, and Prefs Forum.

✈️ atcsundevil

Re: Airline industry without 9/11

Posted: Fri May 22, 2020 3:01 pm
by smithbs
In the 90s, I remember being able to go to the gate to greet arrivals, or being greeted right out of the gate when I'd arrive. The metal detectors were not much of an issue (kind of a breeze, but then I grew up near GEG and smaller airports are easier to get through).

If 9/11 had not happened, I would assume TSA would never have been formed as such. Security would not be so serious, and non-flyers could be in the security zone. Aircraft cockpit doors would not be so secured, thereby saving some cost and weight. Flying might be a more enjoyable experience overall.

Tough to say what the macro economics would have looked like. The world was flirting with recession at the time anyway. 9/11 deepened the economic slump for the airlines immediately afterwards, but the industry still recovered. There might have been a few more % of growth in the up-turn afterward and a faster recovery, but it's academic to try to estimate how much.

Re: Airline industry without 9/11

Posted: Fri May 22, 2020 3:04 pm
by Arion640
If 9/11 had not happened it would of been something else. I doubt you’d still be meeting the family at the gate today.

Re: Airline industry without 9/11

Posted: Fri May 22, 2020 4:35 pm
by seagulls2020
Who knows. Something worse could have happened.

Nevertheless, i think boeing would have gone ahead with the sonic cruiser along with classic aircraft retirements such as 727 or dc-10 being postponed.

Re: Airline industry without 9/11

Posted: Fri May 22, 2020 7:45 pm
by stlgph
I imagine some of the practices you see today would have been implemented eventual in some, shape, or form, even if limited to specific instances and places.

For example - take the current LGA ... trying to get to Concourse B is bad enough as it is with just the passenger flow through there. Add 10 or 15 people coming along to see grandma off to the gate and you wouldn't be able to move through there. Some other busier airports may have followed suit.

Secure cockpit doors would have probably come along at some point - it just makes sense.

Re: Airline industry without 9/11

Posted: Fri May 22, 2020 7:47 pm
by FGITD
seagulls2020 wrote:
Who knows. Something worse could have happened.

Nevertheless, i think boeing would have gone ahead with the sonic cruiser along with classic aircraft retirements such as 727 or dc-10 being postponed.


Sonic cruiser was a great concept, but I’m still not totally sure Boeing ever really intended to build it. Boeing was basically offering up faster vs more efficient, and aside from Concorde, has any airline really ever cared more for faster? The CV990 was the same argument and it failed.

Overall I agree, something would have happened sooner or later. The idea of using airliners in an attack wasn't going to go away. And security at the time Had no real motive to improve. Just a few years prior we'd seen the Bojinka plot unravel mostly due to carelessness, and security still wasn't drastically improved

Re: Airline industry without 9/11

Posted: Fri May 22, 2020 11:58 pm
by Kent350787
Arion640 wrote:
If 9/11 had not happened it would of been something else. I doubt you’d still be meeting the family at the gate today.


Aprt from meetign the family at the gate, which still continues in my country, I agree that it would ahve been something else. Aviation wuld have remained a terrorist targest, the success of 9/11 justshowed how "easy" it was.

That said, I'm not sure that thestructure and approach of the US with TSA has necessarily been the best way forward.

Re: Airline industry without 9/11

Posted: Sat May 23, 2020 10:51 am
by Arion640
Kent350787 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
If 9/11 had not happened it would of been something else. I doubt you’d still be meeting the family at the gate today.


Aprt from meetign the family at the gate, which still continues in my country, I agree that it would ahve been something else. Aviation wuld have remained a terrorist targest, the success of 9/11 justshowed how "easy" it was.

That said, I'm not sure that thestructure and approach of the US with TSA has necessarily been the best way forward.


Where do you live? New Zealand? Was great meeting family off the gate (domestic only) when i lived there.

Re: Airline industry without 9/11

Posted: Sat May 23, 2020 11:54 pm
by Kent350787
Arion640 wrote:
Where do you live? New Zealand? Was great meeting family off the gate (domestic only) when i lived there.


No, Australia. Always meet family at the gate, and the airport (SYD) was always a fun outing with the kids when they were younger (T2 or T3 domestic). Need to pass through security, but no ticket/ID requiremnts to do so.

I don't recall what the security requirements were pre-9/11. My wife flew on 11/11, only to have the airline collapse after she arrived 600 miles from home (Ansett). QF switched its international widebodies to domestic to take up the demand.

But, back OT, I still believe that if the 9/11 attacks hadn't occurred, a terrorist act with as great an impact for air travel would have happened at that time.

Re: Airline industry without 9/11

Posted: Sun May 24, 2020 12:23 am
by Arion640
Kent350787 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Where do you live? New Zealand? Was great meeting family off the gate (domestic only) when i lived there.


No, Australia. Always meet family at the gate, and the airport (SYD) was always a fun outing with the kids when they were younger (T2 or T3 domestic). Need to pass through security, but no ticket/ID requiremnts to do so.

I don't recall what the security requirements were pre-9/11. My wife flew on 11/11, only to have the airline collapse after she arrived 600 miles from home (Ansett). QF switched its international widebodies to domestic to take up the demand.

But, back OT, I still believe that if the 9/11 attacks hadn't occurred, a terrorist act with as great an impact for air travel would have happened at that time.


Ahh yes, when I visited Australia I remember you could get into the terminal without ticket or ID (at least in Gold Coast Airport you could).

Re: Airline industry without 9/11

Posted: Sun May 31, 2020 8:26 pm
by dfwjim1
I flew out of DFW in August, 2001 and I distinctly remember seeing the private security guy dozing off while viewing baggage going through the X-ray machine!