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Opus99
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Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 12:05 am

A lot has been said about the 777x, i for one think it's going to be a fantastic aircraft and it will do very well, but i also think it depends on if its able to beat its efficiency goals. With the 10% increase in engine efficiency and 7% increase in efficiency due to its new wing it is expected to do well, but a weight increase projected to reduce that by around 4% leaving us with about a 13% increase in efficiency over the 77W. now this is what boeing has told us, I don't know if they've told their customers something different.

But my question is, will that be enough and will boeing beat these goals? at the start I know Boeing had told STC about 16-17% but i believe at the time the weight was still expected to remain the same around the same but i'm not entirely sure what the weight is going to be now. last analysis i saw put the 777-9 at 177T by an analysis by leeham.

If you think so, why? if you dont, why not?
 
TropicalSky
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 1:20 am

The basic B777 was already efficient prior to the LR & W upgrades with raked wing tips and other airframe clean up done over the yrs......I think it's safe to say that Boeing will beat estimates on 9(completely new redesigned wing,made of new material,engines that perform a lot better by burning less fuel and less thrust requiring less maintenance,extra pax to help with casm). This all before future pips to GE engine and removing weight after testing has verified endurance
 
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 1:36 am

I haven't heard anything about 777x actual weight versus promised weight. I believe the promised weight is quite conservative and likely to see a lighter aircraft, in particular, the wing. However, I would have thought to hear some bragging by now on lower weight.

I also expect the GE9x to beat promised fuel burn. However, we are 9 months of flight testing ahead before any answer can be given.

Lightsaber
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 1:37 am

TropicalSky wrote:
The basic B777 was already efficient prior to the LR & W upgrades with raked wing tips and other airframe clean up done over the yrs......I think it's safe to say that Boeing will beat estimates on 9(completely new redesigned wing,made of new material,engines that perform a lot better by burning less fuel and less thrust requiring less maintenance,extra pax to help with casm). This all before future pips to GE engine and removing weight after testing has verified endurance

I tend to think the opposite. Boeing has already used the low hanging fruit on the existing 77W and any reduction now is going to be at the more expensive and extreme end of the weight loss cost curve. I expect they will hit their goals within a % or two but unlikely to be better than expected as per the 77W.
 
VV
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 8:31 am

Does any one know the exact efficiency goal for the 777-9 stated by Boeing?

How can we guess if 777-9 will beat the target if we do not what it is exactly? Well, I do not know, so if someone knows please tell us.
 
kimimm19
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 8:48 am

I realise it's early, but wouldn't Boeing be shouting as loudly as they could if it were beating targets?
 
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keesje
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 9:01 am

Just better than (someone at some point) expected, that's achievable and a boost for the program.

Maybe we can take the original 77W 9 abreast cabin as reference and include per seat efficiency on the 10 abreast 777-9.

Working with "Standard" lay outs also gives to opportunity to increase density & create per seat efficiencies.
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VSMUT
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 9:49 am

kimimm19 wrote:
I realise it's early, but wouldn't Boeing be shouting as loudly as they could if it were beating targets?


It is probably a bit early to get the results in, but I agree with you. The program isn't looking too bright, so it is safe to say that they would be doing absolutely everything to blare out positive news.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 10:24 am

What has Boeing to gain right now with public info on performance. No airline is buying right now, the airlines that are I am sure are getting briefed. Boeing is keeping their head low until they have real data. Good to save up some good news for a future PR event.
 
SEU
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 10:42 am

The 777X is probably a fantastic aircraft and will be very efficient for a lot of carriers for years to come, regardless if they manage to get the efficiency numbers they said. Not only is it one of the prettiest jets, its will probably be very comfortable like

The problem with the plane wont be its design, it is the scrutiny from regulators due to the MAX fiasco that will delay it, the current supply chain due to covid will be almost decimated and boeing will need to focus on getting the supply to its MAX, 787s, 767s, 747s and Army jets first. Then of course, the whole market for aviation will change and might make a VLA like this not plausible for a long time. Which is a massive shame.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 11:12 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
What has Boeing to gain right now with public info on performance.


Everything.

Airlines everywhere are looking to save money and cut orders. An improvement of the aircraft could be what sways Emirates, Cathay, Qatar and Lufthansa decisions to cancel or not.

We also know that the board of directors have been obsessed with Boeings performance on the stock exchange, even going as far as building fatally flawed aircraft. They would 100% publish stuff like this just to keep the price up.


SEU wrote:
Not only is it one of the prettiest jets, its will probably be very comfortable like


Meh. The 777 is noisy. With the trimmed down side-walls, I wouldn't hold my hopes high about cabin noise in the 777X.
 
peterinlisbon
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 11:16 am

I think the market is about to be flooded with hundreds of widebodies leased out or sold for next to nothing. The fuel savings you can get with a new aircraft won't offset the extra capital/leasing costs. Plus oil is cheap. I don't think airlines are going to making many new orders for a long time.
 
Opus99
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 11:25 am

VSMUT wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
What has Boeing to gain right now with public info on performance.


Everything.

Airlines everywhere are looking to save money and cut orders. An improvement of the aircraft could be what sways Emirates, Cathay, Qatar and Lufthansa decisions to cancel or not.

We also know that the board of directors have been obsessed with Boeings performance on the stock exchange, even going as far as building fatally flawed aircraft. They would 100% publish stuff like this just to keep the price up.


SEU wrote:
Not only is it one of the prettiest jets, its will probably be very comfortable like


Meh. The 777 is noisy. With the trimmed down side-walls, I wouldn't hold my hopes high about cabin noise in the 777X.

What use do they get from telling us though? Their customers of course. But at the same time what I’ve heard from the outset is quite positive But isn’t much to do with. It’s efficiency simply because that info hasn’t been released. Although Boeing will know, if the aircraft wasn’t meeting its targets I think they’ll be doing quite a bit to see what they can change in order to do that, but the aircraft is sailing through testing so far. If you’ve even bothered to listen to the comms for the test flights you can tell.

Also when have they ever really told us anything?
Last edited by Opus99 on Mon May 25, 2020 11:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Opus99
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 11:27 am

VSMUT wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
What has Boeing to gain right now with public info on performance.


Everything.

Airlines everywhere are looking to save money and cut orders. An improvement of the aircraft could be what sways Emirates, Cathay, Qatar and Lufthansa decisions to cancel or not.

We also know that the board of directors have been obsessed with Boeings performance on the stock exchange, even going as far as building fatally flawed aircraft. They would 100% publish stuff like this just to keep the price up.


SEU wrote:
Not only is it one of the prettiest jets, its will probably be very comfortable like


Meh. The 777 is noisy. With the trimmed down side-walls, I wouldn't hold my hopes high about cabin noise in the 777X.

Funny how people who have stood right next to it and been ON IT say it’s extremely quiet. So I don’t know how you know this actually
 
Opus99
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 11:33 am

VSMUT wrote:
kimimm19 wrote:
I realise it's early, but wouldn't Boeing be shouting as loudly as they could if it were beating targets?


It is probably a bit early to get the results in, but I agree with you. The program isn't looking too bright, so it is safe to say that they would be doing absolutely everything to blare out positive news.

We are a few months into testing, when Boeing will probably have been able to give their customers real data and milestone performances and a early look into efficiencies and compare it to the previous 77W program. We are about 6 months into this coronavirus crises, I would’ve thought the 777X Will be the first to go, we’ve heard rumours but no one has done anything. If the 777X was really a trash show it would’ve been the first out of the door
 
VSMUT
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 11:40 am

Opus99 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
What has Boeing to gain right now with public info on performance.


Everything.

Airlines everywhere are looking to save money and cut orders. An improvement of the aircraft could be what sways Emirates, Cathay, Qatar and Lufthansa decisions to cancel or not.

We also know that the board of directors have been obsessed with Boeings performance on the stock exchange, even going as far as building fatally flawed aircraft. They would 100% publish stuff like this just to keep the price up.


SEU wrote:
Not only is it one of the prettiest jets, its will probably be very comfortable like


Meh. The 777 is noisy. With the trimmed down side-walls, I wouldn't hold my hopes high about cabin noise in the 777X.

What use do they get from telling us though? Their customers of course. But at the same time what I’ve heard from the outset is quite positive But isn’t much to do with. It’s efficiency simply because that info hasn’t been released. Although Boeing will know, if the aircraft wasn’t meeting its targets I think they’ll be doing quite a bit to see what they can change in order to do that, but the aircraft is sailing through testing so far. If you’ve even bothered to listen to the comms for the test flights you can tell.

Also when have they ever really told us anything?


Why was the news of the 777-300ERs efficiency released? What use did they get from telling us? Same reasoning.
 
Opus99
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 11:48 am

VSMUT wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

Everything.

Airlines everywhere are looking to save money and cut orders. An improvement of the aircraft could be what sways Emirates, Cathay, Qatar and Lufthansa decisions to cancel or not.

We also know that the board of directors have been obsessed with Boeings performance on the stock exchange, even going as far as building fatally flawed aircraft. They would 100% publish stuff like this just to keep the price up.




Meh. The 777 is noisy. With the trimmed down side-walls, I wouldn't hold my hopes high about cabin noise in the 777X.

What use do they get from telling us though? Their customers of course. But at the same time what I’ve heard from the outset is quite positive But isn’t much to do with. It’s efficiency simply because that info hasn’t been released. Although Boeing will know, if the aircraft wasn’t meeting its targets I think they’ll be doing quite a bit to see what they can change in order to do that, but the aircraft is sailing through testing so far. If you’ve even bothered to listen to the comms for the test flights you can tell.

Also when have they ever really told us anything?


Why was the news of the 777-300ERs efficiency released? What use did they get from telling us? Same reasoning.

Okay, what? Did you buy a 777? From above it doesn’t seem to have made you like it anymore. The 787 performance wasn’t released. In fact the CEO of BCA at the time confessed they’ve missed the mark for performance but look how that turned out.

Also Boeing is not as communicative with the public as they used to be
 
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 12:20 pm

kimimm19 wrote:
I realise it's early, but wouldn't Boeing be shouting as loudly as they could if it were beating targets?

A lot of reasons. They do not have firm figures yet. I am sure they have a pretty good idea, but airlines want precise figures that they can rely on. If they release figures now and the final figures are not as good, they will be embarrassed. There is no hurry as nobody is buying right now. My reading of the tea leaves is that it will likely end up beating expectation. The question is by how much.
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 12:30 pm

In a normal world, Boeing wouldn't say anything but a comment would leak via STC or some other CEO. But the world is not normal and I would expect orders for all WBs to contract. Besides, has Airbus said anything official to date about the A359/35K meeting or exceeding its performance goals? Sorry but we're not the target audience for such information.
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VV
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 12:39 pm

Opus99 wrote:
...
Also Boeing is not as communicative with the public as they used to be


The way they communicate is just a little bit different. That's all.
 
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crimsonchin
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 12:49 pm

How are members of this forum supposed to be able to speak on something like this?

I mean yeah if we go by Boeing's track record and the OG 777's accomplishments, then the answer is yes. But other than that, I'm not really sure what answers you're expecting.

Opus99 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
What has Boeing to gain right now with public info on performance.


Everything.

Airlines everywhere are looking to save money and cut orders. An improvement of the aircraft could be what sways Emirates, Cathay, Qatar and Lufthansa decisions to cancel or not.

We also know that the board of directors have been obsessed with Boeings performance on the stock exchange, even going as far as building fatally flawed aircraft. They would 100% publish stuff like this just to keep the price up.


SEU wrote:
Not only is it one of the prettiest jets, its will probably be very comfortable like


Meh. The 777 is noisy. With the trimmed down side-walls, I wouldn't hold my hopes high about cabin noise in the 777X.

Funny how people who have stood right next to it and been ON IT say it’s extremely quiet. So I don’t know how you know this actually


I can assure you that no one interested in being truthful (not even Boeing fanboys) would have described the 777 as "extremely quiet".
 
Opus99
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 12:51 pm

crimsonchin wrote:
How are members of this forum supposed to be able to speak on something like this?

I mean yeah if we go by Boeing's track record and the OG 777's accomplishments, then the answer is yes. But other than that, I'm not really sure what answers you're expecting.

I don’t expect anyone to have inside figures, as you can see from above people have been able to come up with good answers, albeit subjective but also there’s the possibility someone might know something and choose to share
 
Opus99
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 12:52 pm

crimsonchin wrote:
How are members of this forum supposed to be able to speak on something like this?

I mean yeah if we go by Boeing's track record and the OG 777's accomplishments, then the answer is yes. But other than that, I'm not really sure what answers you're expecting.

Opus99 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

Everything.

Airlines everywhere are looking to save money and cut orders. An improvement of the aircraft could be what sways Emirates, Cathay, Qatar and Lufthansa decisions to cancel or not.

We also know that the board of directors have been obsessed with Boeings performance on the stock exchange, even going as far as building fatally flawed aircraft. They would 100% publish stuff like this just to keep the price up.




Meh. The 777 is noisy. With the trimmed down side-walls, I wouldn't hold my hopes high about cabin noise in the 777X.

Funny how people who have stood right next to it and been ON IT say it’s extremely quiet. So I don’t know how you know this actually


I can assure you that no one interested in being truthful (not even Boeing fanboys) would have described the 777 as "extremely quiet".

I’m referring to the 777-9 not the 777. Urgh
 
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crimsonchin
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 12:57 pm

Opus99 wrote:
crimsonchin wrote:
How are members of this forum supposed to be able to speak on something like this?

I mean yeah if we go by Boeing's track record and the OG 777's accomplishments, then the answer is yes. But other than that, I'm not really sure what answers you're expecting.

Opus99 wrote:
Funny how people who have stood right next to it and been ON IT say it’s extremely quiet. So I don’t know how you know this actually


I can assure you that no one interested in being truthful (not even Boeing fanboys) would have described the 777 as "extremely quiet".

I’m referring to the 777-9 not the 777. Urgh


Makes sense, sorry for the mix-up. I guess we'll be able to speak definitively on that when the plane enters service.
 
Vicenza
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 1:16 pm

Opus99 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
kimimm19 wrote:
I realise it's early, but wouldn't Boeing be shouting as loudly as they could if it were beating targets?


. If the 777X was really a trash show it would’ve been the first out of the door


Hmm, they were fairly quick to get the MAX out of the door.
 
Vicenza
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 1:23 pm

Opus99 wrote:
crimsonchin wrote:
How are members of this forum supposed to be able to speak on something like this?

I mean yeah if we go by Boeing's track record and the OG 777's accomplishments, then the answer is yes. But other than that, I'm not really sure what answers you're expecting.


I don’t expect anyone to have inside figures, as you can see from above people have been able to come up with good answers, albeit subjective but also there’s the possibility someone might know something and choose to share


Not really, no. People have came up with mere guesses/comments and which is quite a different thing to 'answers'. But, out of curiosity, if you don't expect anyone to have inside figures, how then do you expect anything knowledgeable to be shared.
 
Opus99
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 1:29 pm

Vicenza wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
crimsonchin wrote:
How are members of this forum supposed to be able to speak on something like this?

I mean yeah if we go by Boeing's track record and the OG 777's accomplishments, then the answer is yes. But other than that, I'm not really sure what answers you're expecting.


I don’t expect anyone to have inside figures, as you can see from above people have been able to come up with good answers, albeit subjective but also there’s the possibility someone might know something and choose to share


Not really, no. People have came up with mere guesses/comments and which is quite a different thing to 'answers'. But, out of curiosity, if you don't expect anyone to have inside figures, how then do you expect anything knowledgeable to be shared.

It’s an opinionated question of how people believe the 777x will perform given what we know or what they expect. Of course it’s not factual, the same way people ask if x aircraft will be a success or not. Well we can’t see the future so all you can give is a prediction and your opinion
 
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keesje
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 1:38 pm

Let's hope the 777x beats it's specifications. Because the 777-9 has new wings, engines, tail, cockpit and fuselage, the 777-200/300ER track record probably provides little guidance for 777-9 positive or negative expectations. Anyway, not more than e.g. the 787 track record (new design) or 737MAX track record (derivative developed in parallel with the 777X).

What I did read is that it is significant heavier than the 77W and it's Airbus competitor, the GE9X engines had problems, there was an unexpected fuselage rupture during testing and the certification process is under scrutiny by several authorities. And there might be some 777-9 backlog changes with EK, LH, Etihad and CX and Boeing slowed down production. In the end everything might be just fine though.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Opus99
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 1:51 pm

keesje wrote:
Let's hope the 777x beats it's specifications. Because the 777-9 has new wings, engines, tail, cockpit and fuselage, the 777-200/300ER track record probably provides little guidance for 777-9 positive or negative expectations. Anyway, not more than e.g. the 787 track record (new design) or 737MAX track record (derivative developed in parallel with the 777X).

What I did read is that it is significant heavier than the 77W and it's Airbus competitor, the GE9X engines had problems, there was an unexpected fuselage rupture during testing and the certification process is under scrutiny by several authorities. And there might be some 777-9 backlog changes with EK, LH, Etihad and CX and Boeing slowed down production. In the end everything might be just fine though.

Of everything you listed there only 2 are confirmed. Although I’m sure you’d hate for everything to be fine :)
 
Jet-lagged
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 2:37 pm

Their customers are just trying to survive these months, and emerge as undamaged as possible. Right now the broader world of newshounds and analysts care more about furloughs, production rates and when the Max will get delivered. If Boeing are seeing positive numbers they might share them with customers who have already purchased so they are less likely to defer, but those will be limited conversations. Boeing would get more bang to release 777X over-performance figures - if they do or will have them - later on. Hopefully it comes to that.
 
BHRN
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 4:58 pm

Beats 77L and 77W? Definitely.
Beats its (777X) Efficiency Goals? That would depend how far they had made their promises.
 
morrisond
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 5:08 pm

I think it will be a lot closer to 77W weight than people are expecting and handily beat its goals.

From the 777X testing thread a few weeks ago quoting myself

"I would agree. I think Boeing probably threw a lot more engineering resources at this bird to get the OEW weight down once they saw how good the A350 was turning out.

If they didn't - then it's their failure. But there isn't much that isn't brand spanking new on this aircraft except for the Outer Mold line, nose and probably lower lobe. It really is a new aircraft and should have been certificated as such.

Everything is basically new.

787 Cockpit/systems (except for 777 Bleed systems)
New Lighter Interior
New WIngBox
New Gear
New Wing
New Tail


I found a neat number on the A320 that the barrel and nose is only 3% of MTOW - say that is about Double on something like an 777 and OEW weight is about 55% of MTOW - so that means that by weight at least 90% of the aircraft/structure was touched.

Boeing uses many of the same tools and Vendors as Airbus. Given another 3-4 years of development time is it not reasonable to assume OEW weight is going to come in a lot better than some of the assumptions on here? I have seen as high as 190T which seems silly.

Wiki now puts it at 177T according to Bjorn Fehrm (March 7, 2019). "Boeing's 777X analyzed, Part 4"

It could be a closer to 170T which could make it's economics even better. The 777W is at 168T (but is that pre the 2016 weight savings program?)

777X is longer - but same MTOW. They could have saved a lot of weight elsewhere - if not - why did they change so many things?"
 
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keesje
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Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 5:41 pm

Opus99 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Let's hope the 777x beats it's specifications. Because the 777-9 has new wings, engines, tail, cockpit and fuselage, the 777-200/300ER track record probably provides little guidance for 777-9 positive or negative expectations. Anyway, not more than e.g. the 787 track record (new design) or 737MAX track record (derivative developed in parallel with the 777X).

What I did read is that it is significant heavier than the 77W and it's Airbus competitor, the GE9X engines had problems, there was an unexpected fuselage rupture during testing and the certification process is under scrutiny by several authorities. And there might be some 777-9 backlog changes with EK, LH, Etihad and CX and Boeing slowed down production. In the end everything might be just fine though.

Of everything you listed there only 2 are confirmed. Although I’m sure you’d hate for everything to be fine :)


Which ones? Confirmed by who, Boeing? ..

morrisond wrote:
I think it will be a lot closer to 77W weight than people are expecting and handily beat its goals.

From the 777X testing thread a few weeks ago quoting myself

"I would agree. I think Boeing probably threw a lot more engineering resources at this bird to get the OEW weight down once they saw how good the A350 was turning out.

If they didn't - then it's their failure. But there isn't much that isn't brand spanking new on this aircraft except for the Outer Mold line, nose and probably lower lobe. It really is a new aircraft and should have been certificated as such.

Everything is basically new.

787 Cockpit/systems (except for 777 Bleed systems)
New Lighter Interior
New WIngBox
New Gear
New Wing
New Tail


I found a neat number on the A320 that the barrel and nose is only 3% of MTOW - say that is about Double on something like an 777 and OEW weight is about 55% of MTOW - so that means that by weight at least 90% of the aircraft/structure was touched.

Boeing uses many of the same tools and Vendors as Airbus. Given another 3-4 years of development time is it not reasonable to assume OEW weight is going to come in a lot better than some of the assumptions on here? I have seen as high as 190T which seems silly.

Wiki now puts it at 177T according to Bjorn Fehrm (March 7, 2019). "Boeing's 777X analyzed, Part 4"

It could be a closer to 170T which could make it's economics even better. The 777W is at 168T (but is that pre the 2016 weight savings program?)

777X is longer - but same MTOW. They could have saved a lot of weight elsewhere - if not - why did they change so many things?"


Most often 777-9 OEW is estimated to be 185-190t. Around 35t heavier than its competitor. https://medium.com/o530-carris-pt-heral ... 80dd601a83.
Supporters are making sure at least wiki suggests a "nice" value (suggesting a valid source). I came to the same 185t OEW estimations based on fuel, MTOW and 777-200ER/-300ER interpolations. Engine thrust increases don't support the 777-9t is coming out lighter than expected. I foresee another bump to restore payload-range. Serious decreasing OEW can only be done reducing MTOW (range, payload) or when the aircraft was severely over engineered, with lots of dead structure. That seems unlikely IMO.

Image
https://medium.com/o530-carris-pt-heral ... 80dd601a83.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Opus99
Topic Author
Posts: 968
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 6:43 pm

keesje wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Let's hope the 777x beats it's specifications. Because the 777-9 has new wings, engines, tail, cockpit and fuselage, the 777-200/300ER track record probably provides little guidance for 777-9 positive or negative expectations. Anyway, not more than e.g. the 787 track record (new design) or 737MAX track record (derivative developed in parallel with the 777X).

What I did read is that it is significant heavier than the 77W and it's Airbus competitor, the GE9X engines had problems, there was an unexpected fuselage rupture during testing and the certification process is under scrutiny by several authorities. And there might be some 777-9 backlog changes with EK, LH, Etihad and CX and Boeing slowed down production. In the end everything might be just fine though.

Of everything you listed there only 2 are confirmed. Although I’m sure you’d hate for everything to be fine :)


Which ones? Confirmed by who, Boeing? ..

morrisond wrote:
I think it will be a lot closer to 77W weight than people are expecting and handily beat its goals.

From the 777X testing thread a few weeks ago quoting myself

"I would agree. I think Boeing probably threw a lot more engineering resources at this bird to get the OEW weight down once they saw how good the A350 was turning out.

If they didn't - then it's their failure. But there isn't much that isn't brand spanking new on this aircraft except for the Outer Mold line, nose and probably lower lobe. It really is a new aircraft and should have been certificated as such.

Everything is basically new.

787 Cockpit/systems (except for 777 Bleed systems)
New Lighter Interior
New WIngBox
New Gear
New Wing
New Tail


I found a neat number on the A320 that the barrel and nose is only 3% of MTOW - say that is about Double on something like an 777 and OEW weight is about 55% of MTOW - so that means that by weight at least 90% of the aircraft/structure was touched.

Boeing uses many of the same tools and Vendors as Airbus. Given another 3-4 years of development time is it not reasonable to assume OEW weight is going to come in a lot better than some of the assumptions on here? I have seen as high as 190T which seems silly.

Wiki now puts it at 177T according to Bjorn Fehrm (March 7, 2019). "Boeing's 777X analyzed, Part 4"

It could be a closer to 170T which could make it's economics even better. The 777W is at 168T (but is that pre the 2016 weight savings program?)

777X is longer - but same MTOW. They could have saved a lot of weight elsewhere - if not - why did they change so many things?"


Most often 777-9 OEW is estimated to be 185-190t. Around 35t heavier than its competitor. https://medium.com/o530-carris-pt-heral ... 80dd601a83.
Supporters are making sure at least wiki suggests a "nice" value (suggesting a valid source). I came to the same 185t OEW estimations based on fuel, MTOW and 777-200ER/-300ER interpolations. Engine thrust increases don't support the 777-9t is coming out lighter than expected. I foresee another bump to restore payload-range. Serious decreasing OEW can only be done reducing MTOW (range, payload) or when the aircraft was severely over engineered, with lots of dead structure. That seems unlikely IMO.

Image
https://medium.com/o530-carris-pt-heral ... 80dd601a83.

Every single estimate is from 2 years before it was actually built. So...By people that are not the OEM or work at the OEM.
And all those issues with the 777X program you listed previously. Only 2 have been confirmed by either an airline or Boeing or any credible source because ALL have been allegedly. So try again
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2210
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Mon May 25, 2020 7:41 pm

The 77X is an extensive update and re-engine of the 77W, in a family with 1,634 already produced. The 77W was the most popular with 820 to date. So the company that made this very successful model is going to totally botch this derivative. GE is also going to totally screw the pooch with engine too.

I love this board's optimism. Most here seem quite happy having their current favorite stay that way forever, well CV probably washed away any new programs for 5-6 years, in that time there will be very few engineers left in aviation and the industry will be quite BORING
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13932
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Tue May 26, 2020 10:01 am

Opus99 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Of everything you listed there only 2 are confirmed. Although I’m sure you’d hate for everything to be fine :)


Which ones? Confirmed by who, Boeing? ..

morrisond wrote:
I think it will be a lot closer to 77W weight than people are expecting and handily beat its goals.

From the 777X testing thread a few weeks ago quoting myself

"I would agree. I think Boeing probably threw a lot more engineering resources at this bird to get the OEW weight down once they saw how good the A350 was turning out.

If they didn't - then it's their failure. But there isn't much that isn't brand spanking new on this aircraft except for the Outer Mold line, nose and probably lower lobe. It really is a new aircraft and should have been certificated as such.

Everything is basically new.

787 Cockpit/systems (except for 777 Bleed systems)
New Lighter Interior
New WIngBox
New Gear
New Wing
New Tail


I found a neat number on the A320 that the barrel and nose is only 3% of MTOW - say that is about Double on something like an 777 and OEW weight is about 55% of MTOW - so that means that by weight at least 90% of the aircraft/structure was touched.

Boeing uses many of the same tools and Vendors as Airbus. Given another 3-4 years of development time is it not reasonable to assume OEW weight is going to come in a lot better than some of the assumptions on here? I have seen as high as 190T which seems silly.

Wiki now puts it at 177T according to Bjorn Fehrm (March 7, 2019). "Boeing's 777X analyzed, Part 4"

It could be a closer to 170T which could make it's economics even better. The 777W is at 168T (but is that pre the 2016 weight savings program?)

777X is longer - but same MTOW. They could have saved a lot of weight elsewhere - if not - why did they change so many things?"


Most often 777-9 OEW is estimated to be 185-190t. Around 35t heavier than its competitor. https://medium.com/o530-carris-pt-heral ... 80dd601a83.
Supporters are making sure at least wiki suggests a "nice" value (suggesting a valid source). I came to the same 185t OEW estimations based on fuel, MTOW and 777-200ER/-300ER interpolations. Engine thrust increases don't support the 777-9t is coming out lighter than expected. I foresee another bump to restore payload-range. Serious decreasing OEW can only be done reducing MTOW (range, payload) or when the aircraft was severely over engineered, with lots of dead structure. That seems unlikely IMO.

Image
https://medium.com/o530-carris-pt-heral ... 80dd601a83.

Every single estimate is from 2 years before it was actually built. So...By people that are not the OEM or work at the OEM.
And all those issues with the 777X program you listed previously. Only 2 have been confirmed by either an airline or Boeing or any credible source because ALL have been allegedly. So try again


:confused: :confused:

Not sure I fully understand "your Only 2 have been confirmed by either an airline or Boeing or any credible source".

Splitting out what I said:

"read that it is significant heavier than the 77W and it's Airbus competitor"
source: https://medium.com/o530-carris-pt-heral ... 80dd601a83

"the GE9X engines had problems"
source: https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 85.article

"there was an unexpected fuselage rupture during testing"
source: https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... ress-test/

"the certification process is under scrutiny by several authorities"
source: https://www.businessinsider.nl/boeing-7 ... =true&r=US

"there might be some 777-9 backlog changes with EK"
source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-los ... 1574251915

"LH"
source: https://samchui.com/2019/11/08/lufthans ... szlnzozZaQ

"Etihad"
source: https://samchui.com/2019/02/16/etihad-a ... szlxjozZaQ

"CX "
source: https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... boeing-787

"and Boeing slowed down production"
source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyboga ... rce-by-10/

seems all pretty well documented from various sources. Waiting for the OE to confirm, can put you behind months or even end up being misinformed. .
But that's also another topic. https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... hes-report
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Opus99
Topic Author
Posts: 968
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Tue May 26, 2020 10:10 am

keesje wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
keesje wrote:

Which ones? Confirmed by who, Boeing? ..



Most often 777-9 OEW is estimated to be 185-190t. Around 35t heavier than its competitor. https://medium.com/o530-carris-pt-heral ... 80dd601a83.
Supporters are making sure at least wiki suggests a "nice" value (suggesting a valid source). I came to the same 185t OEW estimations based on fuel, MTOW and 777-200ER/-300ER interpolations. Engine thrust increases don't support the 777-9t is coming out lighter than expected. I foresee another bump to restore payload-range. Serious decreasing OEW can only be done reducing MTOW (range, payload) or when the aircraft was severely over engineered, with lots of dead structure. That seems unlikely IMO.

Image
https://medium.com/o530-carris-pt-heral ... 80dd601a83.

Every single estimate is from 2 years before it was actually built. So...By people that are not the OEM or work at the OEM.
And all those issues with the 777X program you listed previously. Only 2 have been confirmed by either an airline or Boeing or any credible source because ALL have been allegedly. So try again


:confused: :confused:

Not sure I fully understand "your Only 2 have been confirmed by either an airline or Boeing or any credible source".

Splitting out what I said:

"read that it is significant heavier than the 77W and it's Airbus competitor"
https://medium.com/o530-carris-pt-heral ... 80dd601a83

"the GE9X engines had problems"
https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 85.article

"there was an unexpected fuselage rupture during testing"
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... ress-test/

"the certification process is under scrutiny by several authorities"
https://www.businessinsider.nl/boeing-7 ... =true&r=US

"there might be some 777-9 backlog changes with EK"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-los ... 1574251915

"LH"
https://samchui.com/2019/11/08/lufthans ... szlnzozZaQ

"Etihad"
https://samchui.com/2019/02/16/etihad-a ... szlxjozZaQ

"CX "
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... boeing-787

"and Boeing slowed down production"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyboga ... rce-by-10/

seems all pretty well documented from various sources. I one wants to see is another topic.

Okay so now about 3/4 nice. And bringing in Boeing slowing down production don’t act like that’s a fault with the program because that’s a very lame point, all programs across both OEMS are being slowed down so don’t try that. Okay the rest bringing Sam chui or executive traveller here is not anything confirmed. That’s the truth. Who is their source. I don’t take my news from blogs. CX has not communicated to Boeing on the 787-10 switch it was allegedly being considered only in house. I don’t know what Boeing has done to you, but arguing with you will make me lose brain cells because it’s obvious there’s nothing anybody can tell you that will change your mind on this aircraft and that’s your right! Even if the aircraft comes out and is successful beyond imagination you’ll still have your issues, can’t stand people who can’t see the benefit of both manufacturers and appreciate the work of both. It must be one or the other.
 
User avatar
747classic
Posts: 3212
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 9:13 am

Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Tue May 26, 2020 10:21 am

Remember this :
The "promised 777-9 weights" are promised by the same Boeing sales department that promised to initial customers 787 and 747-8 aircraft with very low OEW's., without properly asking the engineers (or engineering was afraid to give the correct answer : not possible on the first 100+ aircraft).

Looking at the 747-8 (also a derative aircraft, like the 777-9), Boeing engineering had a proper excuse : a lot of resources (engineering) were transferred to the 787, leaving the 748 program with external hired engineers, reduced testing, etc. The result : a 10.000 lbs overweight aircraft, requiring an extensive slim down program and not satsfied intial customers (eg Atlas and DLH).

I hope the sales department and engineering were more in line and realistic with the "promised weights" this time.
Operating a twin over the ocean, you're always one engine failure from a total emergency.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13932
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Tue May 26, 2020 11:24 am

Opus99 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Every single estimate is from 2 years before it was actually built. So...By people that are not the OEM or work at the OEM.
And all those issues with the 777X program you listed previously. Only 2 have been confirmed by either an airline or Boeing or any credible source because ALL have been allegedly. So try again


:confused: :confused:

Not sure I fully understand "your Only 2 have been confirmed by either an airline or Boeing or any credible source".

Splitting out what I said:

"read that it is significant heavier than the 77W and it's Airbus competitor"
https://medium.com/o530-carris-pt-heral ... 80dd601a83

"the GE9X engines had problems"
https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 85.article

"there was an unexpected fuselage rupture during testing"
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... ress-test/

"the certification process is under scrutiny by several authorities"
https://www.businessinsider.nl/boeing-7 ... =true&r=US

"there might be some 777-9 backlog changes with EK"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-los ... 1574251915

"LH"
https://samchui.com/2019/11/08/lufthans ... szlnzozZaQ

"Etihad"
https://samchui.com/2019/02/16/etihad-a ... szlxjozZaQ

"CX "
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... boeing-787

"and Boeing slowed down production"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyboga ... rce-by-10/

seems all pretty well documented from various sources. I one wants to see is another topic.

Okay so now about 3/4 nice. And bringing in Boeing slowing down production don’t act like that’s a fault with the program because that’s a very lame point, all programs across both OEMS are being slowed down so don’t try that. Okay the rest bringing Sam chui or executive traveller here is not anything confirmed. That’s the truth. Who is their source. I don’t take my news from blogs. CX has not communicated to Boeing on the 787-10 switch it was allegedly being considered only in house. I don’t know what Boeing has done to you, but arguing with you will make me lose brain cells because it’s obvious there’s nothing anybody can tell you that will change your mind on this aircraft and that’s your right! Even if the aircraft comes out and is successful beyond imagination you’ll still have your issues, can’t stand people who can’t see the benefit of both manufacturers and appreciate the work of both. It must be one or the other.


Hi, alternative sources on the 777-9 and LH & Etihad can be found easily: https://www.aero.de/news-34963/Lufthans ... haeft.html, https://www.ifn.news/posts/etihad-airwa ... ft-orders/. And as you probably know and can see, most of this 777-9 news is from before the Covid-19 crisis.

Instead of accusing me of not providing correct information or sources, the lack of objectivity might very well be on the other side of the line. Where are the sources to suggest The 777X might Beat its Efficiency Goals? Can you provide those?

My perspective on the 777x, or better 777-9, is that Boeing has some work to (re)do on 777x certification. The certification strategy chosen by Boeing and approved by FAA needs to be modified and adjusted (JATR), taking time. Also to convince the launching customers LH and EK and their authorities.

The 777X might very well become the standard for > 400 seat flights in the future. There seems to be some room for growth for 777-10 looking at the wings & engines. Boeing needs to hold on for 3-4 years..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Opus99
Topic Author
Posts: 968
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Tue May 26, 2020 12:17 pm

keesje wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
keesje wrote:

:confused: :confused:

Not sure I fully understand "your Only 2 have been confirmed by either an airline or Boeing or any credible source".

Splitting out what I said:

"read that it is significant heavier than the 77W and it's Airbus competitor"
https://medium.com/o530-carris-pt-heral ... 80dd601a83

"the GE9X engines had problems"
https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 85.article

"there was an unexpected fuselage rupture during testing"
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... ress-test/

"the certification process is under scrutiny by several authorities"
https://www.businessinsider.nl/boeing-7 ... =true&r=US

"there might be some 777-9 backlog changes with EK"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-los ... 1574251915

"LH"
https://samchui.com/2019/11/08/lufthans ... szlnzozZaQ

"Etihad"
https://samchui.com/2019/02/16/etihad-a ... szlxjozZaQ

"CX "
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... boeing-787

"and Boeing slowed down production"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyboga ... rce-by-10/

seems all pretty well documented from various sources. I one wants to see is another topic.

Okay so now about 3/4 nice. And bringing in Boeing slowing down production don’t act like that’s a fault with the program because that’s a very lame point, all programs across both OEMS are being slowed down so don’t try that. Okay the rest bringing Sam chui or executive traveller here is not anything confirmed. That’s the truth. Who is their source. I don’t take my news from blogs. CX has not communicated to Boeing on the 787-10 switch it was allegedly being considered only in house. I don’t know what Boeing has done to you, but arguing with you will make me lose brain cells because it’s obvious there’s nothing anybody can tell you that will change your mind on this aircraft and that’s your right! Even if the aircraft comes out and is successful beyond imagination you’ll still have your issues, can’t stand people who can’t see the benefit of both manufacturers and appreciate the work of both. It must be one or the other.


Hi, alternative sources on the 777-9 and LH & Etihad can be found easily: https://www.aero.de/news-34963/Lufthans ... haeft.html, https://www.ifn.news/posts/etihad-airwa ... ft-orders/. And as you probably know and can see, most of this 777-9 news is from before the Covid-19 crisis.

Instead of accusing me of not providing correct information or sources, the lack of objectivity might very well be on the other side of the line. Where are the sources to suggest The 777X might Beat its Efficiency Goals? Can you provide those?

My perspective on the 777x, or better 777-9, is that Boeing has some work to (re)do on 777x certification. The certification strategy chosen by Boeing and approved by FAA needs to be modified and adjusted (JATR), taking time. Also to convince the launching customers LH and EK and their authorities.

The 777X might very well become the standard for > 400 seat flights in the future. There seems to be some room for growth for 777-10 looking at the wings & engines. Boeing needs to hold on for 3-4 years..

I didn’t say your information is not correct but over half of what you listed is not confirmed. The only thing confirmed are reduction in production numbers and everyone knows that is because of coronavirus, that is happening to all frames across both OEMs so I don’t know what that has to do with the 777X program specifically. Brining more articles makes no difference because everything is done off the back of one article.

Secondly, there’s a reason why I asked the question WILL IT BEAT ITS EFFICIENCY GOALS. I stressed the issues I had with that with weight etc, you could’ve said I don’t think so because of X or Y answer that makes sense, you’re here talking about failed pressure structure, orders, inside discussions with struggling carriers that have not touched their 777x order besides emirates which still has 11 more for reconfirmation. Nothing which actually attributes to the performance or efficiency of the aircraft. You’re here blowing God knows what you just wanted to come here and as usual discuss yours contempt for the aircraft. Above 747 classic raised a good point of previous weight issues Boeing has had, that is something that brings good insight into how Boeing deals with weight so they may not deliver given previous programs. Honestly you read what you want and ignore the rest. They have altered the 777X certification with a technical advisory board Basically what they did for the MAX recertification. That is happening alongside testing so as to not elongate the certification process than required.

I have had a Boeing employee tell me the aircraft is doing well in testing and they seem to be having more issues with the data instruments that gather testing data than the aircraft itself, but won’t say more or maybe if you listen to comms on the test flights you can get a sense of satisfaction by the pilots but how can you do such
 
VSMUT
Posts: 4433
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Tue May 26, 2020 1:58 pm

Opus99 wrote:
I have had a Boeing employee tell me the aircraft is doing well in testing and they seem to be having more issues with the data instruments that gather testing data than the aircraft itself, but won’t say more or maybe if you listen to comms on the test flights you can get a sense of satisfaction by the pilots but how can you do such


Take a moment to consider the sources of that information. Comms on a test flight, what meaningful information could you gather from that? They aren't going to broadcast information about actual and expected fuel flow to ATC. That stuff is monitored, stored and taken back to the ground to be analysed. Pilot satisfaction, what does that say about efficiency goals? Absolutely nothing.

If a Boeing employee publicly started uttering negative comments about his company or its products, how long do you think he would still have a job? Hint: Probably not long, considering what we saw with the Al Jazeera documentary that followed up on some whistleblowers. And before you suggest I am anti-B and pro-A, no, Airbus would guard its data just as well.
 
Sokes
Posts: 1614
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Tue May 26, 2020 3:17 pm

Opus99 wrote:
With the 10% increase in engine efficiency and 7% increase in efficiency due to its new wing it is expected to do well, but a weight increase projected to reduce that by around 4% leaving us with about a 13% increase in efficiency over the 77W.
...


keesje wrote:
Maybe we can take the original 77W 9 abreast cabin as reference and include per seat efficiency on the 10 abreast 777-9.

13% efficiency increase sounds very good. Does it refer to 10 abreast? Nothing wrong with it, I'm just asking.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Opus99
Topic Author
Posts: 968
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Tue May 26, 2020 3:27 pm

Sokes wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
With the 10% increase in engine efficiency and 7% increase in efficiency due to its new wing it is expected to do well, but a weight increase projected to reduce that by around 4% leaving us with about a 13% increase in efficiency over the 77W.
...


keesje wrote:
Maybe we can take the original 77W 9 abreast cabin as reference and include per seat efficiency on the 10 abreast 777-9.

13% efficiency increase sounds very good. Does it refer to 10 abreast? Nothing wrong with it, I'm just asking.

The 13% refers to aircraft fuel savings as a whole. On a per seat basis I believe it’s 20%. But I was wondering if that’s enough to compete with the A35K at 20% savings aircraft fuel savings
 
Sokes
Posts: 1614
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Will The 777X Beat its Efficiency Goals

Tue May 26, 2020 4:24 pm

Opus99 wrote:
The 13% refers to aircraft fuel savings as a whole. On a per seat basis I believe it’s 20%. But I was wondering if that’s enough to compete with the A35K at 20% savings aircraft fuel savings

At about the same length the A35K is 20% more efficient than B777-300ER? Is this on the range limit or for average flights?
The B777-9 is 2,87 m longer than B777-300ER. Add another seat per row. If it's 13% for the plane, it should be more than 20% / seat.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?

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