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Vladex
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Is there a place for a third OEM player now?

Wed May 27, 2020 4:58 pm

With 2020 shutdown , there seems to have been a reset button hit. Now that Airbus and Boeing are downsizing and laying off people and Embraer and Bombardier are effectively no more. Is there a place for a third manufacturer or is this a closed field with only government connected monopolies that also produce military and cargo airplanes? In my unbiased view, Boeing is a company in the 4th of 5 stages of terminal decline which is stuck in active inertia and Airbus with its new management seems to be stumbling and losing vision. I think this duopoly has become stale if not toxic and there needs to be someone fresh to keep things honest at least.

I just don't see a third government group coming up with it so it has to be someone that is driven and slightly eccentric individual like Elon Musk and I don't see him coming in as he is doing other things but someone that recognizes long term opportunity but with lots of short term pain and tussling. Presumably one can buy leftover relevant assets of Bombardier, Embraer and maybe buy a Russian MC21 for starters and start to develop a wide body that can actually fit future engines and start to prepare for a regional electric plane. There willl be lots of former A and B people to hire in the next 5 years. Obviously this industry is unlike phone and cars so there will be lots of resistance and dirty tricks. Probability and cost of failure is giant and the ultimate profit may be small, long delayed and unlikely but that also means someone motivated, disciplines and dedicated will take it.
 
bkmbr
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Re: Is there a place for a third player now?

Wed May 27, 2020 5:19 pm

What makes you think that Embraer is gone? The company may not be in the best shape but Embraer is in a much better financial position than Boeing if you consider the size and the finances of each company. Embraer is smaller then Boeing but have much less liabilities then the American company.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Is there a place for a third player now?

Wed May 27, 2020 5:24 pm

Some here would say China will be a strong supporter of creating a new aircraft maker in the next decade or less, starting with demands of expanded joint ventures with Airbus and Boeing for manufacturing of major components and assembly of entire aircraft as a condition for PRC based airlines to purchase their products
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Is there a place for a third player now?

Wed May 27, 2020 5:38 pm

The financial backing necessary to start a new large airframe manufacturing operation from scratch is staggering beyond comprehension. The requirement for experienced and knowledgeable people is also beyond comprehension. You cannot just hire a bunch of people off the street and have them design and build airliners, no matter how much money you throw at them. Look at how long it took Airbus to get established, and they had several governments behind them as well as hordes of experienced personnel from aerospace companies that were in the process of disappearing. I jus do not see the emergence of a new player as feasible for a long time. Both Boeing and Airbus have problems; but I think somehow (new management through bankruptcy, perhaps) a way must be found to solve them. The institutional experience and knowledge that both possess cannot be replaced easily, if at all. And it would take a long, long time and will likely encompass many disasters in the process.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Vladex
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Re: Is there a place for a third player now?

Wed May 27, 2020 7:24 pm

bkmbr wrote:
What makes you think that Embraer is gone? The company may not be in the best shape but Embraer is in a much better financial position than Boeing if you consider the size and the finances of each company. Embraer is smaller then Boeing but have much less liabilities then the American company.


ok , I agree but it`s hard to see how Embraer can ever become that third player.
 
bkmbr
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Re: Is there a place for a third OEM player now?

Wed May 27, 2020 8:04 pm

Embraer is already the third largest aircraft manufacture in the global market but the company focus is on regional jets, executive and military aircrafts only and not in widebodies. Maybe you should rephrase the title because as it seams you are taking account of the aviation only the widebodies segment.
BTW, UAC (Russia) and Comac (China) are already working to develop a successor to the IL-96, the CR-929, as a long haul 250 to 350 passengers airplane, but the project is in the early stages of development as far as I know.
 
Vladex
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Re: Is there a place for a third player now?

Thu May 28, 2020 6:30 pm

SEPilot wrote:
The financial backing necessary to start a new large airframe manufacturing operation from scratch is staggering beyond comprehension. The requirement for experienced and knowledgeable people is also beyond comprehension. You cannot just hire a bunch of people off the street and have them design and build airliners, no matter how much money you throw at them. Look at how long it took Airbus to get established, and they had several governments behind them as well as hordes of experienced personnel from aerospace companies that were in the process of disappearing. I jus do not see the emergence of a new player as feasible for a long time. Both Boeing and Airbus have problems; but I think somehow (new management through bankruptcy, perhaps) a way must be found to solve them. The institutional experience and knowledge that both possess cannot be replaced easily, if at all. And it would take a long, long time and will likely encompass many disasters in the process.


Tesla has surpassed Boeing and Airbus in terms of capitalization in 15 short years. Both A and B are medium companies in terms of capital and profits. Financials are much less of an issue as opposed to technical know how and especially government regulation and legislation. Since airplanes are rare and big by default, there is a tendency to over control them and to curtail differentiation. Airplanes are essentially war machines so a government will look for a monopoly that can control it . These things work against free competition.
Last edited by Vladex on Thu May 28, 2020 6:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Vladex
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Re: Is there a place for a third OEM player now?

Thu May 28, 2020 6:34 pm

bkmbr wrote:
Embraer is already the third largest aircraft manufacture in the global market but the company focus is on regional jets, executive and military aircrafts only and not in widebodies. Maybe you should rephrase the title because as it seams you are taking account of the aviation only the widebodies segment.
BTW, UAC (Russia) and Comac (China) are already working to develop a successor to the IL-96, the CR-929, as a long haul 250 to 350 passengers airplane, but the project is in the early stages of development as far as I know.


Embraer only has E2 which has 2 by 2 seating and has had dismal sales as it`s either too big or too small. If that`s a third player, than it`s clearly on the downside but you can imagine things as you wish. Chinese and Russian programs as they are , are just vanity ventures at this point but someone could buy them and make something out of it.
 
bkmbr
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Re: Is there a place for a third OEM player now?

Thu May 28, 2020 9:06 pm

Vladex wrote:
Embraer only has E2 which has 2 by 2 seating and has had dismal sales as it`s either too big or too small. If that`s a third player, than it`s clearly on the downside but you can imagine things as you wish. Chinese and Russian programs as they are , are just vanity ventures at this point but someone could buy them and make something out of it.


Embraer have 160+ firm orders of the 175E1 alone and other 160+ firm orders for all the aircrafts in the E2 family, this is far from being a "dismal sales" number. Yes, the A220 have more orders but Embraer will not go bankrupt because of that no matter how big the crowd Embraer haters at a.net is.
Embraer will obviously go through a period of reorganization to face reality after the end of the agreement with Boeing, but the company has a solid position in the market, have 2+billion in hand and is about the receive a 600 million relief support from the Brazilian government to help the company during the pandemic, and Embraer is the only company capable of producing planes in its sub-76 passenger scope limited segment going forward, a segment which is likely the one with the fastest recover in the post-covid crisis. The company is fine, not being the # 1 but that also does not mean that the company is going to go bankrupt. Not wanting to create a new 787 that not make the company lose her relevance in the market.
 
Vladex
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Re: Is there a place for a third OEM player now?

Thu May 28, 2020 11:29 pm

bkmbr wrote:
Vladex wrote:
Embraer only has E2 which has 2 by 2 seating and has had dismal sales as it`s either too big or too small. If that`s a third player, than it`s clearly on the downside but you can imagine things as you wish. Chinese and Russian programs as they are , are just vanity ventures at this point but someone could buy them and make something out of it.


Embraer have 160+ firm orders of the 175E1 alone and other 160+ firm orders for all the aircrafts in the E2 family, this is far from being a "dismal sales" number. Yes, the A220 have more orders but Embraer will not go bankrupt because of that no matter how big the crowd Embraer haters at a.net is.
Embraer will obviously go through a period of reorganization to face reality after the end of the agreement with Boeing, but the company has a solid position in the market, have 2+billion in hand and is about the receive a 600 million relief support from the Brazilian government to help the company during the pandemic, and Embraer is the only company capable of producing planes in its sub-76 passenger scope limited segment going forward, a segment which is likely the one with the fastest recover in the post-covid crisis. The company is fine, not being the # 1 but that also does not mean that the company is going to go bankrupt. Not wanting to create a new 787 that not make the company lose her relevance in the market.


Embraer like other once successful companies is fully stuck in active inertia, google it up and figure it out. Over arguing is one of the signs of active inertia. I looked up order book and there is just anonymous startups and leasing companies, 20 delivered and 151 to go. I looked up reviews on youtube and E2 got trashed compared to A220. Post Covid will have lower number of active airplanes, it doesn`t mean to throw every thing out today and go back to those tiny 2 by 2 regional jets.
 
bkmbr
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Re: Is there a place for a third OEM player now?

Fri May 29, 2020 12:19 am

Republic Airlines, Aercap and Azul now are just anonymous startup? Really?
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Is there a place for a third player now?

Fri May 29, 2020 2:06 pm

Vladex wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
The financial backing necessary to start a new large airframe manufacturing operation from scratch is staggering beyond comprehension. The requirement for experienced and knowledgeable people is also beyond comprehension. You cannot just hire a bunch of people off the street and have them design and build airliners, no matter how much money you throw at them. Look at how long it took Airbus to get established, and they had several governments behind them as well as hordes of experienced personnel from aerospace companies that were in the process of disappearing. I jus do not see the emergence of a new player as feasible for a long time. Both Boeing and Airbus have problems; but I think somehow (new management through bankruptcy, perhaps) a way must be found to solve them. The institutional experience and knowledge that both possess cannot be replaced easily, if at all. And it would take a long, long time and will likely encompass many disasters in the process.


Tesla has surpassed Boeing and Airbus in terms of capitalization in 15 short years. Both A and B are medium companies in terms of capital and profits. Financials are much less of an issue as opposed to technical know how and especially government regulation and legislation. Since airplanes are rare and big by default, there is a tendency to over control them and to curtail differentiation. Airplanes are essentially war machines so a government will look for a monopoly that can control it . These things work against free competition.

From what I have seen Tesla is a lot of smoke and mirrors, and I question whether they will be able to survive long term. They make niche products that appeal to a small audience; they are not selling to the vast majority of the automotive buying public. They have nowhere near the physical infrastructure needed to build an airliner. And look at how the MAX debacle has impacted Boeing. They may be able to survive it strictly because of their history; if that happened to a newcomer they would be finished. And the expectation of safely is now so high that one crash that could even remotely be blamed on the manufacturer would likely finish them.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Vladex
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Re: Is there a place for a third OEM player now?

Fri May 29, 2020 3:25 pm

bkmbr wrote:
Republic Airlines, Aercap and Azul now are just anonymous startup? Really?


I am not arguing about Embraer , I don't see Republic Airlines in the order book, I see that Azul , a home airline has 71 of 171 orders. Then some leasing companies and airlines like Air Peace, Air Kiribati and Binter Canarias. I hope Embraer becomes that 3rd party to keep the other two honest but I don't see it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embraer_E ... deliveries
 
bkmbr
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Re: Is there a place for a third OEM player now?

Fri May 29, 2020 3:44 pm

Vladex wrote:
bkmbr wrote:
Republic Airlines, Aercap and Azul now are just anonymous startup? Really?


I am not arguing about Embraer , I don't see Republic Airlines in the order book, I see that Azul , a home airline has 71 of 171 orders. Then some leasing companies and airlines like Air Peace, Air Kiribati and Binter Canarias. I hope Embraer becomes that 3rd party to keep the other two honest but I don't see it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embraer_E ... deliveries


Wikipedia is outdated related, Embraer just published the complete updated backlog for the 175E1 and all the E2 family few weeks ago

https://daflwcl3bnxyt.cloudfront.net/m/ ... ENG-20.pdf
 
johns624
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Re: Is there a place for a third OEM player now?

Fri May 29, 2020 7:36 pm

Boeing and Airbus aren't doing bad because they are bad companies; they are currently doing bad because of the whole pandemic. Now would be the worst time for a new startup. If A&B can't get orders, why would anyone think that a new, unproven company would?

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