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AmericanAir88
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Signs of airports normalizing.

Wed May 27, 2020 9:06 pm

https://imgur.com/gallery/EQTrft8

I check FlightRadar24 every day to look for trends in air travel. I check NYC, DFW, ATL, ORD, and LAX. Travel has definitely been down in all locations, however ORD gave me some hope today.

I noticed that ORD actually had takeoff and landing lines forming and there were plenty of flights coning and going. Is this a sign that things are normalizing a bit for air travel?

Also, any indication that the NYC airports will operate more? I fly out of those constantly.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 12:10 am

AmericanAir88 wrote:
https://imgur.com/gallery/EQTrft8

I check FlightRadar24 every day to look for trends in air travel. I check NYC, DFW, ATL, ORD, and LAX. Travel has definitely been down in all locations, however ORD gave me some hope today.

I noticed that ORD actually had takeoff and landing lines forming and there were plenty of flights coning and going. Is this a sign that things are normalizing a bit for air travel?

Also, any indication that the NYC airports will operate more? I fly out of those constantly.

I think it's a little bit on an illusion. Most airlines have reworked their schedules back into banks for efficiency, but there are far fewer banks than normal. United at IAD, for example, is operating on one daily afternoon bank around 3-4pm with roughly 60-70 arrivals and departures. Outside of that, nada. At my ATC facility, we spend roughly 80% of our time on our "midnight" configuration, and the other 20% split into two sectors (when we'd normally have 5-6 sectors open). I think overall traffic counts are still down roughly 70-75% year over year. Memorial Day 2019, I think we had over 9,000 ops, but this year, I think we were around 1,800. Traffic has ticked up slightly in the past few weeks, but there's still a heck of a long way to go. I don't think there are any expectations of significant improvement for the remainder of 2020.
 
Wingtips56
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 12:13 am

There may be more aircraft operations, but there may not be many passengers aboard.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
ncflyer
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 12:36 am

A friend of mine is a retired dentist. He was given advice in dental school: when you open up your practice, if you only have two patients, schedule them back to back so it looks like you’re busy. AmericanAir88, I think you’re one of the two patients!
 
AmericanAir88
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 1:34 am

ncflyer wrote:
A friend of mine is a retired dentist. He was given advice in dental school: when you open up your practice, if you only have two patients, schedule them back to back so it looks like you’re busy. AmericanAir88, I think you’re one of the two patients!


Ha. Thats true.

I have been checking ORD daily around the time and there definitely seems to be an uptick in flights throughout the last few weeks.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 1:59 am

If you want a single metric, you might try TSA's passenger numbers year-over-year. Empty flights might yield pilot hours but they won't yield revenue to keep the industry from shrinking.
 
bravotango75
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 5:29 am

Sp many Negative Nellies, it's all good!
 
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spinotter
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 11:58 am

bravotango75 wrote:
Sp many Negative Nellies, it's all good!


Negative Nellies? What is the truth? The percentage of TSA travelers processed this year versus previous years, right? Is that up to 10% yet, say for the month of May 2020?
 
CRJ5000
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 12:13 pm

I think a lot is depending on what time you're there.Its anecdotal, but I've been on 6 flights in the past few weeks and the only airport terminal that felt slightly normal was HOU last week, but that was probably a peak departure bank for WN. The rest were eerily desolate. I did have a F9 flight from DEN-MIA which was mostly full as well, including middle seats. Airport still was nearly totally empty though.
The perception on the F9 flight was that things might be slowly normalizing, but then I'd remind myself that it's only full because capacity is 15% of what it used to be.
I do think it will start to slowly normalize in the next few months though. Every state has started to open up. I've been to a few restaurants/bars where things felt relatively normal. Without the ability to actually do anything when traveling, there's no reason to go. Now that things are opening up, I know plenty of people looking for somewhere to go soon.
Didn't see anyone that struck me as a business traveler on any of the 6 flights though, most of which were on WN.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 12:38 pm

I think demand is slightly higher than we think and I’ll tell you why. There are so few nonstop flights from destinations a lot more people are connecting. The TSA screening numbers don’t show us connecting pax. On some days it’s impossible to get from EWR-MCO because the flights are sold out. This is when I have to connect via CLT.
 
Miamiairport
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Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 12:44 pm

In the US with banked flights the airports at time seem to be exceeding crowded. Much of this is due to the fact that sit down restaurants are closed which forces people to the gate. Not to mention in AA heavy airports the ACs are still closed forcing paxs like me to the gate. I'm not sure if the Centurion lounges have re-opened.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 12:52 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
I think a lot is depending on what time you're there.


The TSA data are for a day - they aren't misled by time of day banks.

Data, not anecdotes - that's how big boys do analysis.
 
CRJ5000
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 1:14 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
CRJ5000 wrote:
I think a lot is depending on what time you're there.


The TSA data are for a day - they aren't misled by time of day banks.

Data, not anecdotes - that's how big boys do analysis.


Slow down there, champ. I look at the data daily.
But I would think most people would understand that TSA numbers don't fully tell you if airports are "normalizing". They tell you more people are traveling... and right now its still not many.
Do gates seem crowded? Are shops open? Are restaurants open? Are lounges open? Do pax seem cautious/worried? There is far more to normalizing than more people traveling.

Right now, at least half the restaurants were closed. I didn't see a single open lounge. 75% of people were wearing masks in the terminal. Most of the stores other than newsstands/snacks were closed. In that sense, things are very much not normal.
 
Joelatbsl
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 1:26 pm

Talking about normal, news in Switzerland is reporting that Zurich Airport will not require passengers to wear masks. Obviously they are very welcome to do so, but not required by any means.
 
Oykie
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 1:30 pm

I believe there will be a noticeable uptick in June. SAS will be back in Chicago and Newark from June 10. Lufthansa is also increasing flights. I hope we will see more flights by the end of summer.
Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
 
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adamblang
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 2:12 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Data, not anecdotes - that's how big boys do analysis.

To that point, here's some data:

Image
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 2:23 pm

Like what someone said above, the hubs still have heavily banked schedules for arrival and departures, which for brief periods during the operating day can give the illussion of a more busy schedule. It isn't at all really. In most cases like ATL used to operate 10-12 waves of departures, currently operates 3. DTW has 2 banks.

While at certain times it may seem busy from the number of flights departing or arriving within that bank, the other big thing that is very noticable is how airlines have shortened the operating day.
At DTW for example in May, there now are only 7 departures before 8am (none of which are DL). DL's first departures don't leave until after 8:30 after the first arrival bank.
Previously, there would be at least 25 departures from the North Terminal before 8am and DL would have at least 20 departures before 8am.
Same thing in evening, the last arrivals of the night get in before 11pm, and typically there would be at least 20 arrivals between 11pm-1am.
 
himarhernandez
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 2:25 pm

Thank you for the post!
Question, do we know of any plans to start reopening lounges? Is there enough premium traffic to justify them to reopen?
 
737MAX7
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 2:31 pm

May not be seeing huge increases everywhere but I can tell you for a fact here at BNA the flights are picking back up. Most definitely not normal loads but we had 12 of our 42 flights booked to the lid (93 on the -700, 113 on the -800) yesterday and we’ve most definitely seen most of out flights that were booked to 10-15 going out with 50-70 now. Like I said not huge increases but it gives me a little hope.
 
drdisque
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 2:49 pm

ORD gets busy in mid afternoon between like 3:30 and 4:30 as that's their main arrival bank. Their other bank is between 7:30 and 8:30 AM. During those banks they frequently have to run triple parallel approaches. Nearly every destination still served from ORD has an arrival in that later bank. So roughly 100 flights land within an hour.

AA has a mid-day bank where the arrivals are between about 11 and 12. It's maybe 75 flights and they usually don't have to go three wide but will occasionally if a flight comes in from the North and 27L is already stacked up and use 27R.

28L/10R has basically been unused since the start of the pandemic and no bank is now large enough to require running departures off both 28R and 22L. 22L has been used very sparingly.

Yesterday a storm rolled in during UA's afternoon arrival bank and ATC just sent all the aircraft up north around it in Wisconsin to re-queue into a single bee line that then threaded the needle mostly into 28C. No GDP was needed since all the aircraft inbound were already in the air and I doubt any flight arrived more than 25 minutes late.
 
mcg
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 2:54 pm

737MAX7 wrote:
May not be seeing huge increases everywhere but I can tell you for a fact here at BNA the flights are picking back up. Most definitely not normal loads but we had 12 of our 42 flights booked to the lid (93 on the -700, 113 on the -800) yesterday and we’ve most definitely seen most of out flights that were booked to 10-15 going out with 50-70 now. Like I said not huge increases but it gives me a little hope.


I'm guessing you are commenting on WN, thanks. Are other airlines (particularly AA and UA) capping loads to enable social distancing? Thanks in advance for any info.
 
dcaproducer
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 6:00 pm

TSA data still shows how many people enter U.S. airports daily. It doesn't matter if people connect, they are still (1) traveler. Numbers are still 10-12% of pre-COVID.
https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput.

I've said in other threads some tourists, especially to beach/vacation designations, will start to fly. I think this is why WN has kept the most capacity.
Many airlines have severely cut back and are working to fill the planes they are flying.

Business travel will be very slow to bounce back. Many of my clients are under a travel ban through at lest July and I have one client that requires personnel to quarantine for (14) days after travel.

I live in the flight path to DCA and I can tell you the planes are few and far between. I think the NE/MidAtlantic region will bounce back slower than places like the midwest, Florida, etc.
 
airstatdfw
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 6:18 pm

drdisque wrote:
ORD gets busy in mid afternoon between like 3:30 and 4:30 as that's their main arrival bank. Their other bank is between 7:30 and 8:30 AM. During those banks they frequently have to run triple parallel approaches. Nearly every destination still served from ORD has an arrival in that later bank. So roughly 100 flights land within an hour.

AA has a mid-day bank where the arrivals are between about 11 and 12. It's maybe 75 flights and they usually don't have to go three wide but will occasionally if a flight comes in from the North and 27L is already stacked up and use 27R.

28L/10R has basically been unused since the start of the pandemic and no bank is now large enough to require running departures off both 28R and 22L. 22L has been used very sparingly.

Yesterday a storm rolled in during UA's afternoon arrival bank and ATC just sent all the aircraft up north around it in Wisconsin to re-queue into a single bee line that then threaded the needle mostly into 28C. No GDP was needed since all the aircraft inbound were already in the air and I doubt any flight arrived more than 25 minutes late.


During the banks we do have triple approaches. If we are east flow we will land 10C, 9R and 9L. Rwy 10R is clsd and has planes parked on it. Rwy 22L is also clsd for around 8 weeks to resurface it. When we are on west flow for the departure bank we will use 27L and 28R. After the last bank leaves around 6:30pm there isn’t much happening until the next day.
 
737MAX7
Posts: 135
Joined: Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:26 pm

Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 6:23 pm

mcg wrote:
737MAX7 wrote:
May not be seeing huge increases everywhere but I can tell you for a fact here at BNA the flights are picking back up. Most definitely not normal loads but we had 12 of our 42 flights booked to the lid (93 on the -700, 113 on the -800) yesterday and we’ve most definitely seen most of out flights that were booked to 10-15 going out with 50-70 now. Like I said not huge increases but it gives me a little hope.


I'm guessing you are commenting on WN, thanks. Are other airlines (particularly AA and UA) capping loads to enable social distancing? Thanks in advance for any info.

Yes I’m commenting on WN, my apologies I should have added that. I do believe other airlines are also capping flights to lower numbers, basically keeping middle seats open. What the lids are/policies are I’m not exactly sure. I have a friend that works at RDU for AA, I’ll send him a message and see if I can get some info :smile:
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 6:24 pm

I tell you what, I was just looking at flightaware for ORD and there is an impressive amount of cargo ops out of there in the evenings and overnight hours.
Not sure what it normally is, but that is an impressive list of operators, aircraft, and destinations.
 
CRJ5000
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 6:29 pm

mcg wrote:
737MAX7 wrote:
May not be seeing huge increases everywhere but I can tell you for a fact here at BNA the flights are picking back up. Most definitely not normal loads but we had 12 of our 42 flights booked to the lid (93 on the -700, 113 on the -800) yesterday and we’ve most definitely seen most of out flights that were booked to 10-15 going out with 50-70 now. Like I said not huge increases but it gives me a little hope.


I'm guessing you are commenting on WN, thanks. Are other airlines (particularly AA and UA) capping loads to enable social distancing? Thanks in advance for any info.


AFAIK, AA is not actually capping flights, but is currently not assigning 50% of 50 percent of middle seats and or seats near the FA jumpseats. Pax are contacted in advance if flight is full and allow them to rebook on other flights free of charge.

UA is notifying pax ahead of time and allowing them to change flights if their flight is near capacity.

DL is blocking middles and some aisles as well. Limiting F cabin to 50% capacity.

I think B6 is blocking middle seats unless you are traveling as a party of 3. They may also be blocking aisles on E190 aircraft.

AS blocking middles.

NK blocking middles as well.

F9 announced they would charge $39 to keep the middle seat open, but quickly backtracked on that after media backlash. I don't think they are blocking anything now. They weren't on my flight last week.

I don't think the blocked middle seats will last past July. It was easy for the airlines to do when flights were going out with 15 passengers. Gave the impression they were doing something to protect passengers that in reality wasn't costing much of anything since the seats were mostly vacant anyway. Now that they are filling up, they are going to want the extra revenue again.
Last edited by CRJ5000 on Thu May 28, 2020 6:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 6:31 pm

I’m also not sure why there’s such negative feelings

Week Over week numbers are up. Loads keep trending up. Right direction yada yada

Anything I fly is full to social distancing cap and airlines are building up sked in June vs May

These are undeniable facts.

Are we still down 80+ percent? Yes. Are we doing a lot better than mid April? Yes
 
williaminsd
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Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 6:44 pm

I think "normal" is a relative term and needs definition. If by "normal," we mean 2019 levels, we're looking at years. It's not just because of the catastrophic impact our state-imposed "lockdowns" have wrought, but also because 2019 was a record year for pax traffic across the globe. Hard to match 2019 pax numbers even without economic suicide.

But if we mean, say 50% LF domestic with decent yields/pax, we'll be there by Q4 this year.

In just the last month for example, SMF seven-day flight count projection on Flightradar 24 is at 362 today, up 36 flights from 326/week on April 26. That's over five more flights a day with more already announced to resume later this summer.

My own experience on Southwest, SAN-SMF earlier this month had LFs in the mid-upper 20s each way and this was one of five frequencies that day. Fares are by no means cheap either with a mid-week, main cabin RT to DFW on AA next week clocking in at over $900.

I'm flying again on AS to SMF in June and as of today, unofficial count based on seat map (and accounting for blocked aisle seats and back row) shows a LF in the low 10s on the 76 seat E175. Almost three weeks out, but I'd expect that number to go up by departure, especially as more of our economy reopens.

I think people like me, who typically travel domestically 3-5x/month for day trips or overnight stays, are the key to getting airlines and airports back to "normal," whatever that may be. I traveled zero times in April, 2x in May, and looks like 3x in June for now. That number could well go higher.

That is a pattern I am seeing in many of my contemporaries. We definitely bottomed-out in April and have begun the long, slow climb back.
Last edited by williaminsd on Thu May 28, 2020 6:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
drdisque
Posts: 1272
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2007 9:57 am

Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Thu May 28, 2020 10:12 pm

airstatdfw wrote:
drdisque wrote:
ORD gets busy in mid afternoon between like 3:30 and 4:30 as that's their main arrival bank. Their other bank is between 7:30 and 8:30 AM. During those banks they frequently have to run triple parallel approaches. Nearly every destination still served from ORD has an arrival in that later bank. So roughly 100 flights land within an hour.

AA has a mid-day bank where the arrivals are between about 11 and 12. It's maybe 75 flights and they usually don't have to go three wide but will occasionally if a flight comes in from the North and 27L is already stacked up and use 27R.

28L/10R has basically been unused since the start of the pandemic and no bank is now large enough to require running departures off both 28R and 22L. 22L has been used very sparingly.

Yesterday a storm rolled in during UA's afternoon arrival bank and ATC just sent all the aircraft up north around it in Wisconsin to re-queue into a single bee line that then threaded the needle mostly into 28C. No GDP was needed since all the aircraft inbound were already in the air and I doubt any flight arrived more than 25 minutes late.


During the banks we do have triple approaches. If we are east flow we will land 10C, 9R and 9L. Rwy 10R is clsd and has planes parked on it. Rwy 22L is also clsd for around 8 weeks to resurface it. When we are on west flow for the departure bank we will use 27L and 28R. After the last bank leaves around 6:30pm there isn’t much happening until the next day.


Thanks, did not know about the 22L resurfacing. I love getting a 22L departure when in west flow because I'm frequently flying to DFW, ATL, or Florida and 22L saves you a few minutes of flight time.
 
Insertnamehere
Posts: 309
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:44 am

Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Fri May 29, 2020 4:10 am

Flights from New York to Miami are incredibly down, currently flights on American are all over the place in terms of scheduling but June 4 only have 3 flights out of LGA to MIA and thats it in terms of New York - MIA traffic, I remember they flew 777s and 767s even earlier this year between the two.

Fares are starting to come up a little which hopefully means there is more demand, I have been booking 3 round trips between NYC and MIA and they were $60 oneway and now they're creeping up to $100-150 unless I use the hidden city trick.
 
737MAX7
Posts: 135
Joined: Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:26 pm

Re: Signs of airports normalizing.

Fri May 29, 2020 2:57 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
mcg wrote:
737MAX7 wrote:
May not be seeing huge increases everywhere but I can tell you for a fact here at BNA the flights are picking back up. Most definitely not normal loads but we had 12 of our 42 flights booked to the lid (93 on the -700, 113 on the -800) yesterday and we’ve most definitely seen most of out flights that were booked to 10-15 going out with 50-70 now. Like I said not huge increases but it gives me a little hope.


I'm guessing you are commenting on WN, thanks. Are other airlines (particularly AA and UA) capping loads to enable social distancing? Thanks in advance for any info.


AFAIK, AA is not actually capping flights, but is currently not assigning 50% of 50 percent of middle seats and or seats near the FA jumpseats. Pax are contacted in advance if flight is full and allow them to rebook on other flights free of charge.

UA is notifying pax ahead of time and allowing them to change flights if their flight is near capacity.

DL is blocking middles and some aisles as well. Limiting F cabin to 50% capacity.

I think B6 is blocking middle seats unless you are traveling as a party of 3. They may also be blocking aisles on E190 aircraft.

AS blocking middles.

NK blocking middles as well.

F9 announced they would charge $39 to keep the middle seat open, but quickly backtracked on that after media backlash. I don't think they are blocking anything now. They weren't on my flight last week.

I don't think the blocked middle seats will last past July. It was easy for the airlines to do when flights were going out with 15 passengers. Gave the impression they were doing something to protect passengers that in reality wasn't costing much of anything since the seats were mostly vacant anyway. Now that they are filling up, they are going to want the extra revenue again.

Thanks for the info! If they are blocking seats I personally consider that a form of capping without actually coming out and saying it personally. How long this lasts though who knows. All I know is I’m looking forward to a few more flights hitting the schedules because right now we are running out of room underneath the planes for all the bags and freight we are sending out.

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