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Boeing757100
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Will Istanbul Grand Airport overtake ATL for busiest airport?

Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:48 pm

In mid-late 2020, construction for a new Istanbul airport will be complete. This new airport is slated to beat ATL in busiest airport in the world, and serve 2million a year. That's double of ATL!

So, will it be beaten?

I don't know

Atlanta has been the busiest airport since 1999. It is located less than 2 hours from 80% of the USA. It serves a city that is base for CocaCola, UPS, CNN, etc. It is the largest airline hub for the Delta Air Lines, one of the largest in the world, and THE largest in Assets value and Market Capitalization. It is a connecting point to the US from Asia, Europe, and Africa. Over 250,000 people travel through ATL every day, and over 110million people in the entire year of 2019.

Istanbul is one of the largest and most influential cities in the world. Turkey is one of the most visited countries on Earth, and Istanbul Grand Airport is one of the busiest. Turkish Airlines is also one of the largest airlines, and serves the most destinations of any airline, while also having strategic locations.

But I still believe that ATL will hold its crown. Istanbul is not a place for connecting flights, unlike ATL, which cuts many passengers. Plus, Atlanta does not have a lot of competing airports its size for over 150 miles. Istanbul, meanwhile, has Doha, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Moscow really close to it, while also not far from France, Germany, and Spain. Plus, Atlanta is home to the largest airline hub for Delta, while also a major city for UPS, Southwest, Spirit, Frontier, and Skywest/Endeavor Air. Istanbul only really caters one major airline, Turkish Airlines, while Atlanta has 6! Plus, Atlanta is undergoing construction as well to possibly rival the Grand Airport.

What are your thoughts? Do you think Istanbul or Atlanta will win? Also, talk about any experiences about any of these airports. (Also Istanbul Ataturk Airport, which got replaced by Grand Airport.)
 
johns624
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Re: Will Istanbul Grand Airport overtake ATL for busiest airport?

Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:52 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
Plus, Atlanta does not have a lot of competing airports its size for over 150 miles. Istanbul, meanwhile, has Doha, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Moscow really close to it, while also not far from France, Germany, and Spain.
You need to brush up on your geography.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Will Istanbul Grand Airport overtake ATL for busiest airport?

Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:14 pm

johns624 wrote:
Boeing757100 wrote:
Plus, Atlanta does not have a lot of competing airports its size for over 150 miles. Istanbul, meanwhile, has Doha, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Moscow really close to it, while also not far from France, Germany, and Spain.
You need to brush up on your geography.

OP you need to take Johns advice. Yeah Istanbul is right in the middle of those cities/countries you mention, but they are at least a 3 hour flight away, so more like 1000 miles away.

Does IST have the potential to become world's busiest? It totally does. Is it in a part of the world that experiences instability and turmoil? Sure does. And that will be the biggest effect on traffic. Not being one of the most visited cities or home to TK (which BTW is 50% owned by the Turkish govt so who knows how much of their service would be truly profitable if they were 100% public like DL in ATL).

ATL is located in the largest economy (read: air market) in the world and has decades of work thrown in it to make it what it is today. Yeah you wont be able to fly nonstop to Ufa or Mogadishu from Atlanta but lots of destinations doesnt usually make for the worlds "busiest" airport.
When wasn't America great?


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enilria
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Re: Will Istanbul Grand Airport overtake ATL for busiest airport?

Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:12 am

Boeing757100 wrote:
In mid-late 2020, construction for a new Istanbul airport will be complete. This new airport is slated to beat ATL in busiest airport in the world, and serve 2million a year. That's double of ATL!

So, will it be beaten?

I don't know

Atlanta has been the busiest airport since 1999. It is located less than 2 hours from 80% of the USA. It serves a city that is base for CocaCola, UPS, CNN, etc. It is the largest airline hub for the Delta Air Lines, one of the largest in the world, and THE largest in Assets value and Market Capitalization. It is a connecting point to the US from Asia, Europe, and Africa. Over 250,000 people travel through ATL every day, and over 110million people in the entire year of 2019.

Istanbul is one of the largest and most influential cities in the world. Turkey is one of the most visited countries on Earth, and Istanbul Grand Airport is one of the busiest. Turkish Airlines is also one of the largest airlines, and serves the most destinations of any airline, while also having strategic locations.

But I still believe that ATL will hold its crown. Istanbul is not a place for connecting flights, unlike ATL, which cuts many passengers. Plus, Atlanta does not have a lot of competing airports its size for over 150 miles. Istanbul, meanwhile, has Doha, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Moscow really close to it, while also not far from France, Germany, and Spain. Plus, Atlanta is home to the largest airline hub for Delta, while also a major city for UPS, Southwest, Spirit, Frontier, and Skywest/Endeavor Air. Istanbul only really caters one major airline, Turkish Airlines, while Atlanta has 6! Plus, Atlanta is undergoing construction as well to possibly rival the Grand Airport.

What are your thoughts? Do you think Istanbul or Atlanta will win? Also, talk about any experiences about any of these airports. (Also Istanbul Ataturk Airport, which got replaced by Grand Airport.)

It’ll never pass ANC on Saturdays during an eclipse.
 
eurotrader85
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Re: Will Istanbul Grand Airport overtake ATL for busiest airport?

Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:25 am

I have to agree with the point that IST will not overtake ATL for a few reasons.

Sure O&D for the city of Istanbul is big, and will grow, but there is the relief airport at SAW which would be more preferable for many travellers to the Asian side of Istanbul. The new IST airport is very far out of what is a very congested city. Compare this to Atlanta, one airport with the capacity to grow further if it wants, in what is geographically a great place in the US for a hub airport and as pointed out, has plenty of O&D of its own due to the numerous corporations based there.

While there is no doubt the Turkish government built IST with a view to grow connecting traffic, what is the market is is trying to connect? It's basically Europe to Asia, and maybe you can add a bit of Africa/Middle East connections as well. As mentioned above they are competing against DOH, DXB, AUH, and of course against the usual European and Asian carriers flying over the region. It doesn't matter if they are 150 miles or 1050 miles away from each other, its the same traffic they are competing for. Further take the soft product at each of those airlines operating each of those hubs. While TK is not a bad airline, the service at each of the ME3 is simply on another level, and far more desirable from a PAX perspective. Not a scientific point I know, but I have basically never heard anyone talk how they are flying from London to Singapore, or wherever, via TK, but I have heard plenty on EY, QR and EK. Compare these points to DL at ATL. They only really have UA and AA, maybe AC to a much lesser degree to compete against connecting North American traffic, all be it with more hubs to compete against, and their soft product (all be it a very low bar set in the US) is arguably the best out of all of them. They are not competing in such a saturated market as the ME3 and TK are, and the ME3 are struggling to even to get the traffic through the hubs to make it viable, so how is TK going to cope at IST? IIRC Lightsaber made a very good assessment saying that across this region (ME3 + TK), there is certainly one, if not two, too many airlines competing for the same traffic.

For these reasons I feel it unlikely IST will ever challenge ATL for number one airport in terms of PAX.
 
Jetty
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Re: Will Istanbul Grand Airport overtake ATL for busiest airport?

Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:15 pm

I don’t think there is any relevant metric in which Turkey or Istanbul ranks top 12 so qualifying Istanbul as one of the largest and most influential cities in the world is a bit of a stretch. However, Atlanta shows that it isn’t needed to become the largest airport in the world. IST has a chance but a lot will depend how the ME3 perform and how much Turkey is willing to invest vis a vis the countries of competing hubs. With SAW still active and at a more convenient location for a big part of Istanbul O&D won’t come close to being enough to topple ATL.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Will Istanbul Grand Airport overtake ATL for busiest airport?

Sat Jun 06, 2020 9:52 pm

I think if any airport has the ability to overtake Atlanta as the busiest airport in the world, it'll be Beijing. I mean, Chinese air traffic is already very big and this is just the beginning. Beijing will stay ahead of Istanbul.

Like others have said, Istanbul is not as important as some people pretend it to be. It's important in Turkey, sure. But Turkey is just a small country, hardly a superpower like China or the USA. It doesn't attract that much traffic.

Sure they're aiming at connecting traffic, but competing with the European airlines on one side and the Middle Eastern carriers on the other is not easy. The airport might have been built for 2 billion passengers a year, but most of that capacity will never be used. Basically it's a white elephant, built far too big for it's purpose.
 
AMS18C36C
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Re: Will Istanbul Grand Airport overtake ATL for busiest airport?

Sun Jun 07, 2020 8:09 am

PatrickZ80 wrote:
But Turkey is just a small country, hardly a superpower like China or the USA. It doesn't attract that much traffic.


209 million passengers in 2019 isn't 'that much traffic'?

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turki ... ers-151914
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Will Istanbul Grand Airport overtake ATL for busiest airport?

Sun Jun 07, 2020 11:05 am

AMS18C36C wrote:
209 million passengers in 2019 isn't 'that much traffic'?

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turki ... ers-151914


Not compared to other countries. For example it's less than Germany, which handled nearly 227 million passengers in the same year (2,7 flights per year per capita). Or what about the 926 million passengers in the USA (2,8 flights per year per capita)? For comparison, Turkey comes out at 2,5 flights per year per capita. With that, it's on the lower side.

Besides, those 209 million passengers are for all of Turkey added up. It's not just Istanbul, it's every airport within Turkey. But since a lot of passengers are flying straight to their destination elsewhere in Turkey from a foreign airport, those passengers are irrelevant to Istanbul. They never get there.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Will Istanbul Grand Airport overtake ATL for busiest airport?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:26 pm

Will the blunt axing of many European airlines by their respective governments (can't fly this, can't fly that, must be green, must cut short routes, etc.) not play right into the hands of New Istanbul Airport?
 
IADCA
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Re: Will Istanbul Grand Airport overtake ATL for busiest airport?

Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:47 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
AMS18C36C wrote:
209 million passengers in 2019 isn't 'that much traffic'?

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turki ... ers-151914


Not compared to other countries. For example it's less than Germany, which handled nearly 227 million passengers in the same year (2,7 flights per year per capita). Or what about the 926 million passengers in the USA (2,8 flights per year per capita)? For comparison, Turkey comes out at 2,5 flights per year per capita. With that, it's on the lower side.

Besides, those 209 million passengers are for all of Turkey added up. It's not just Istanbul, it's every airport within Turkey. But since a lot of passengers are flying straight to their destination elsewhere in Turkey from a foreign airport, those passengers are irrelevant to Istanbul. They never get there.


The "all of Turkey combined" argument is a spectacularly silly one when your counterargument is Germany, where 48 million passengers used MUC, 25 million-ish used each of DUS and TXL, 17 million or so at HAM, and 11-13-ish at STR, CGN, and SXF, all of which feature numerous flights to non-German airports. It's pretty much the same situation as with Turkey.
 
directorguy
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Re: Will Istanbul Grand Airport overtake ATL for busiest airport?

Sat Jun 13, 2020 7:15 pm

Istanbul is a massive city n what is a key regional power with a large population with a growing middle class and inbound leisure/tourism that noticeably increases year on year. Note the word growth. Even when the Turkish lira is devalued making it expensive for Turks to go abroad it becomes easier for foreigners to come in. And that’s just Turkey. IST is close enough to a lot of key emerging markets with high growth.
What about Atlanta? It’s a more mature market. Everyone who can afford to travel already does so. High growth travel patterns are unlikely to emerge in the next few years.
 
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Boeing757100
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Re: Will Istanbul Grand Airport overtake ATL for busiest airport?

Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:52 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
I think if any airport has the ability to overtake Atlanta as the busiest airport in the world, it'll be Beijing. I mean, Chinese air traffic is already very big and this is just the beginning. Beijing will stay ahead of Istanbul.

Like others have said, Istanbul is not as important as some people pretend it to be. It's important in Turkey, sure. But Turkey is just a small country, hardly a superpower like China or the USA. It doesn't attract that much traffic.

Sure they're aiming at connecting traffic, but competing with the European airlines on one side and the Middle Eastern carriers on the other is not easy. The airport might have been built for 2 billion passengers a year, but most of that capacity will never be used. Basically it's a white elephant, built far too big for it's purpose.



Yeah, Shanghai could be close behind........
 
BENAir01
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Re: Will Istanbul Grand Airport overtake ATL for busiest airport?

Sat Jun 13, 2020 11:37 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
AMS18C36C wrote:
209 million passengers in 2019 isn't 'that much traffic'?

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turki ... ers-151914


Not compared to other countries. For example it's less than Germany, which handled nearly 227 million passengers in the same year (2,7 flights per year per capita). Or what about the 926 million passengers in the USA (2,8 flights per year per capita)? For comparison, Turkey comes out at 2,5 flights per year per capita. With that, it's on the lower side.

Besides, those 209 million passengers are for all of Turkey added up. It's not just Istanbul, it's every airport within Turkey. But since a lot of passengers are flying straight to their destination elsewhere in Turkey from a foreign airport, those passengers are irrelevant to Istanbul. They never get there.

I would presume that a higher percentage of Turks pass through IST then Americans pass through ATL. I, am American, have never passed through ATL in my entire life of flying.
Why is flying so expensive? And why is flying well so much more?
 
NLDru
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Re: Will Istanbul Grand Airport overtake ATL for busiest airport?

Sun Jun 14, 2020 3:32 pm

Turkey is a popular destination for the Turks themselves. About seven million Turks live in Germany, Benelux, France and Scandinavia. Both the Turks from Europe and relatives / acquaintances from Turkey regularly fly between Europe and Turkey. All regional airports in the Netherlands, such as Maastricht, Eindhoven, Groningen and Rotterdam fly to several Turkish airports. In addition, a million Dutch tourists go to Turkey every year. Istanbul airport serves Schiphol, Rotterdam and Eindhoven. I am now only talking about the Netherlands. How many Turks and tourists fly to Turkey from Germany, Belgium, France and Scandinavia.

Although Istanbul is an option for European travelers for flights to Asia, Istanbul faces stiff competition from airlines from the Middle East.
 
fil87
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Re: Will Istanbul Grand Airport overtake ATL for busiest airport?

Sun Jun 14, 2020 4:47 pm

As a side note, the 3rd runway has finally been inaugurated today at Istanbul airport. This will increase Istanbul competitive advantage. Capacity will rise from 80 plane landing/take-offs/hour to at least 120. Also, according to Turkish Transportation and Infrastructure Minister, taxi times will drop by half.

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