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a350lover
Topic Author
Posts: 872
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:21 am

Busiest aiports in Europe - after COVID

Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:20 pm

2019 closed with the BIG5 EU airports ranking like:

1) Heathrow: 80,886,589
2) Paris CDG: 76,150,007
3) Amsterdam: 71,707,144
4) Frankfurt: 70,556,072
5) Madrid: 61,734,037

Do you see any changes in this top after covid?

At the end of the day, the main three EU groups (LH, AF/KLM and IAG) all have dual hub strategies (FRA/MUC · CDG/AMS · LHR/MAD).

Which of these 5 is in better position to remain strong and competitive?

I don't think all Europe will get out of this crisis at the same pace. Neither looks like all airline groups are in same position...

My bet for the strongest among these 5 will be AMS. Relatively small nation, not extremely impacted by the COVID, with strong airline (KLM), competitive enough in terms of current contracts compared to LH/AF or BA...

Out of this 5,( a bit out of Europe too), I clearly see IST ranking up towards the very top. 2020 won't be the year nearing the 90M IST hopes to handle at its mega hub, but surely 2021 will see better numbers.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5749
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: Busiest aiports in Europe - after COVID

Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:02 am

If anything, AMS will be hit worse.

I think in the current environment passengers will try to avoid transferring via a third country. E.g. if someone needs to fly from Berlin to Chicago, instead of Berlin-Amsterdam-Chicago, they will prioritise Berlin-Frankfurt-Chicago. That will reduce the possibilities to be stuck in a 3rd country (other than Germany or the US in this case), quarantines, closed borders, etc. Also we go towards a new era of protectionism so big airlines in small countries (KLM, TAP, Emirates, Qatar...) will likely be hit worse because governments are trying to save their national carriers/jobs in any way. Small countries do not have that power. Also AMS does not have "secondary airports/hubs" to get passengers from. EIN/RTM are very small and specialised.

LHR will be hit the least IMO. Whatever current traffic Heathrow might lose, carriers will try to move from LGW/STN/LTN/SEN as they can. Such as Czech's newly resumed PRG-LHR route.

FRA could benefit from Lufthansa having a second hub (MUC). If LH scales traffic down, I suppose MUC will be hit more as it is their "second hub" and they will try to keep a major/fortress hub at FRA to be competitive. If you see passengers from last month, that is already interesting: FRA - 272.701 (-95,6%), MUC - 39.398 (-99,1%). I can also see foreign carriers (such as ANA) leaving relatively close DUS and centralising everything in FRA.

I am not so sure anything will change for CDG, because ORY to CDG does not make a lot of sense since both airports are more or less equal in terms of proximity to the city center and "prestige".

MAD will be hit as well because the Spanish economy will be a mess. On the other hand, I can see more carriers focusing solely in MAD in Spain (and dropping BCN and/or LIS).

So my bet from less to more impacted: 1) LHR 2) FRA 3) CDG 4) AMS/MAD.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 4446
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Busiest aiports in Europe - after COVID

Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:34 am

Southern Europe will be hit hard, having suffered a big impact themselves and also receiving less travelers.
Scandinavians and Northern Europeans (Germany and Netherlands) seem pretty keen on travelling, so will be less hard hit. They also weren't hit as hard and started opening the borders early.
The UK, who knows? Hard hit from Corona, hard brexit coming. International travel is going to be heavily restricted because of restrictions, so most people will only travel within Europe. But the UK will be uniquely poorly positioned for that once they leave with the hard exit.

IMO, Frankfurt, Munich, Düsseldorf, Amsterdam and Copenhagen will move up in the ranks, southern will drop, UK might drop a lot but might also stay where it is.

Edit: Romania will be interesting to watch. Through this crisis, my local airport saw only a few weekly KLM flights, all other hub connectors shutting their routes. But Wizz Air kept flying to half of Romania's cities on a daily basis.
 
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PatrickZ80
Posts: 4259
Joined: Tue Jul 13, 2010 5:33 am

Re: Busiest aiports in Europe - after COVID

Sun Jun 21, 2020 9:09 am

VSMUT wrote:
Edit: Romania will be interesting to watch. Through this crisis, my local airport saw only a few weekly KLM flights, all other hub connectors shutting their routes. But Wizz Air kept flying to half of Romania's cities on a daily basis.


I agree with that, Wizzair could be seen as the light of hope in these dark times. Well, that's an exaggeration perhaps. But nonetheless they mostly kept their network intact where they could and at one time it even led them to being the largest airline in Europe for the day (out of all European airlines they hauled the most passengers).

Therefor the Wizzair bases, specially the ones that stayed open, are likely to go up in rank. Budapest could have high passenger numbers this year as their numbers have dropped less than other airports.
 
fessor
Posts: 165
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2014 1:26 pm

Re: Busiest aiports in Europe - after COVID

Sun Jun 21, 2020 2:30 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Southern Europe will be hit hard, having suffered a big impact themselves and also receiving less travelers.
Scandinavians and Northern Europeans (Germany and Netherlands) seem pretty keen on travelling, so will be less hard hit. They also weren't hit as hard and started opening the borders early.
The UK, who knows? Hard hit from Corona, hard brexit coming. International travel is going to be heavily restricted because of restrictions, so most people will only travel within Europe. But the UK will be uniquely poorly positioned for that once they leave with the hard exit.

IMO, Frankfurt, Munich, Düsseldorf, Amsterdam and Copenhagen will move up in the ranks, southern will drop, UK might drop a lot but might also stay where it is.

Edit: Romania will be interesting to watch. Through this crisis, my local airport saw only a few weekly KLM flights, all other hub connectors shutting their routes. But Wizz Air kept flying to half of Romania's cities on a daily basis.


Also OSL and ARN would recover fast
 
johns624
Posts: 2793
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Busiest aiports in Europe - after COVID

Sun Jun 21, 2020 3:03 pm

When it all shakes out, the largest airports in the future will be the same as the largest airports before COVID-19.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Busiest aiports in Europe - after COVID

Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:02 pm

a350lover wrote:
2019 closed with the BIG5 EU airports ranking like:

1) Heathrow: 80,886,589
2) Paris CDG: 76,150,007
3) Amsterdam: 71,707,144
4) Frankfurt: 70,556,072
5) Madrid: 61,734,037

Do you see any changes in this top after covid?

At the end of the day, the main three EU groups (LH, AF/KLM and IAG) all have dual hub strategies (FRA/MUC · CDG/AMS · LHR/MAD).

Which of these 5 is in better position to remain strong and competitive?

I don't think all Europe will get out of this crisis at the same pace. Neither looks like all airline groups are in same position...

My bet for the strongest among these 5 will be AMS. Relatively small nation, not extremely impacted by the COVID, with strong airline (KLM), competitive enough in terms of current contracts compared to LH/AF or BA...

Out of this 5,( a bit out of Europe too), I clearly see IST ranking up towards the very top. 2020 won't be the year nearing the 90M IST hopes to handle at its mega hub, but surely 2021 will see better numbers.


London and Amsterdam kept their airspace and airports open for travelers. France and Spain were closed, where as Germany was mixed. I expect CDG and MAD to fall out of the top five, FRA to be a bit lower but keep its position due to all airports across Europe being affected, whereas AMS and LHR would vie for the top two.

KLM kept flying to a lot of destinations so may have picked up a lot of Continental European passengers. LHR would probably be number one or number two, due to the fact that the UK airspace remained open, the consolidation of long haul flights away from Gatwick, and the Trump border closures affecting the Schengen Area before the UK.

Sweden will move up the list. I'm not sure how much the strict border closures of Denmark and SAS hub CPH would bolster ARD. If anything it might help AMS more than ARD.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 4446
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Busiest aiports in Europe - after COVID

Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:21 pm

fessor wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Southern Europe will be hit hard, having suffered a big impact themselves and also receiving less travelers.
Scandinavians and Northern Europeans (Germany and Netherlands) seem pretty keen on travelling, so will be less hard hit. They also weren't hit as hard and started opening the borders early.
The UK, who knows? Hard hit from Corona, hard brexit coming. International travel is going to be heavily restricted because of restrictions, so most people will only travel within Europe. But the UK will be uniquely poorly positioned for that once they leave with the hard exit.

IMO, Frankfurt, Munich, Düsseldorf, Amsterdam and Copenhagen will move up in the ranks, southern will drop, UK might drop a lot but might also stay where it is.

Edit: Romania will be interesting to watch. Through this crisis, my local airport saw only a few weekly KLM flights, all other hub connectors shutting their routes. But Wizz Air kept flying to half of Romania's cities on a daily basis.


Also OSL and ARN would recover fast


Oslo yes (especially due to all the domestic traffic), but Stockholm?!? No way, between the blokade they are facing due to the weird handling of the virus, and the ever reducing traffic due to flight shaming and climate awareness, I wouldn't expect Arlanda to recover anywhere near as fast as Copenhagen or Oslo. The airport was in a recession already before coronavirus broke out. They lost BRA, maybe TUIfly Nordic and SAS has been lukewarm when it came to reintroducing flights.
 
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Boeing757100
Posts: 258
Joined: Wed May 06, 2020 10:09 pm

Re: Busiest aiports in Europe - after COVID

Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:05 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
If anything, AMS will be hit worse.

I think in the current environment passengers will try to avoid transferring via a third country. E.g. if someone needs to fly from Berlin to Chicago, instead of Berlin-Amsterdam-Chicago, they will prioritise Berlin-Frankfurt-Chicago. That will reduce the possibilities to be stuck in a 3rd country (other than Germany or the US in this case), quarantines, closed borders, etc. Also we go towards a new era of protectionism so big airlines in small countries (KLM, TAP, Emirates, Qatar...) will likely be hit worse because governments are trying to save their national carriers/jobs in any way. Small countries do not have that power. Also AMS does not have "secondary airports/hubs" to get passengers from. EIN/RTM are very small and specialised.

LHR will be hit the least IMO. Whatever current traffic Heathrow might lose, carriers will try to move from LGW/STN/LTN/SEN as they can. Such as Czech's newly resumed PRG-LHR route.

FRA could benefit from Lufthansa having a second hub (MUC). If LH scales traffic down, I suppose MUC will be hit more as it is their "second hub" and they will try to keep a major/fortress hub at FRA to be competitive. If you see passengers from last month, that is already interesting: FRA - 272.701 (-95,6%), MUC - 39.398 (-99,1%). I can also see foreign carriers (such as ANA) leaving relatively close DUS and centralising everything in FRA.

I am not so sure anything will change for CDG, because ORY to CDG does not make a lot of sense since both airports are more or less equal in terms of proximity to the city center and "prestige".

MAD will be hit as well because the Spanish economy will be a mess. On the other hand, I can see more carriers focusing solely in MAD in Spain (and dropping BCN and/or LIS).

So my bet from less to more impacted: 1) LHR 2) FRA 3) CDG 4) AMS/MAD.


not to mention the greenpeace airport stampede on may 15.
 
Bostrom
Posts: 974
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 7:11 pm

Re: Busiest aiports in Europe - after COVID

Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:20 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Oslo yes (especially due to all the domestic traffic), but Stockholm?!? No way, between the blokade they are facing due to the weird handling of the virus, and the ever reducing traffic due to flight shaming and climate awareness, I wouldn't expect Arlanda to recover anywhere near as fast as Copenhagen or Oslo. The airport was in a recession already before coronavirus broke out. They lost BRA, maybe TUIfly Nordic and SAS has been lukewarm when it came to reintroducing flights.


BRA did not use ARN before they went into administration. If anything, their problems might see more traffic move from BMA to ARN.
 
MartijnNL
Posts: 984
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:44 am

Re: Busiest aiports in Europe - after COVID

Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:54 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
(...) So my bet from less to more impacted: 1) LHR 2) FRA 3) CDG 4) AMS/MAD.

not to mention the greenpeace airport stampede on may 15.

What do you mean? And did you really have to quote the entire post?
 
GiovanniPR
Posts: 1
Joined: Sat Jul 13, 2019 12:55 am

Re: Busiest aiports in Europe - after COVID

Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:19 am

a350lover wrote:
2019 closed with the BIG5 EU airports ranking like:

1) Heathrow: 80,886,589
2) Paris CDG: 76,150,007
3) Amsterdam: 71,707,144
4) Frankfurt: 70,556,072
5) Madrid: 61,734,037

Do you see any changes in this top after covid?

At the end of the day, the main three EU groups (LH, AF/KLM and IAG) all have dual hub strategies (FRA/MUC · CDG/AMS · LHR/MAD).

Which of these 5 is in better position to remain strong and competitive?

I don't think all Europe will get out of this crisis at the same pace. Neither looks like all airline groups are in same position...



My bet for the strongest among these 5 will be AMS. Relatively small nation, not extremely impacted by the COVID, with strong airline (KLM), competitive enough in terms of current contracts compared to LH/AF or BA...

Out of this 5,( a bit out of Europe too), I clearly see IST ranking up towards the very top. 2020 won't be the year nearing the 90M IST hopes to handle at its mega hub, but surely 2021 will see better numbers.
I think MAD is pretty safe because it doesn't rely on 1 or 2 airlines. AMS mostly relies on KLM and God forbid, if something happens with KLM (again, it probably won't), AMS could fall apart. Same thing with CDG, it mostly relies on Air France. FRA and LHR could be a bit safer because they have a balance between airlines.
 
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PatrickZ80
Posts: 4259
Joined: Tue Jul 13, 2010 5:33 am

Re: Busiest aiports in Europe - after COVID

Sat Jun 27, 2020 11:23 pm

GiovanniPR wrote:
I think MAD is pretty safe because it doesn't rely on 1 or 2 airlines. AMS mostly relies on KLM and God forbid, if something happens with KLM (again, it probably won't), AMS could fall apart. Same thing with CDG, it mostly relies on Air France. FRA and LHR could be a bit safer because they have a balance between airlines.


I kind of disagree with that.

All of these airports have one or two airlines they heavily rely on. You already said Amsterdam relies on KLM and Charles de Gaulle relies on Air France, which is true. But in the same way Frankfurt heavily relies on Lufthansa. Without Lufthansa Frankfurt would fall apart just as well. Madrid does heavily rely on Iberia and to a lesser degree Air Europa. Same is true for Heathrow which does rely on British Airways and to a lesser degree Virgin Atlantic. Imagine what would happen to Heathrow if British Airways would collapse.

The number of small-based or non-based airlines at each of these airports is more or less equal, so where is that balance between airlines? Any airport could fall apart when the home carrier falls away. Still, that doesn't have to be the end for an airport. A new home carrier could emerge over time, making the airport big again. This is for example what happened in Budapest. After the collapse of Malev Budapest was basically left as a destination-only airport. However slowly Wizzair emerged, which resulted in Budapest having higher passenger numbers now than it ever did when Malev was still around.

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