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keesje
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Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:33 am

It seems there only one way to restore US Civil Aerospace Industry health. Leading Seattle based commentary Leeham News is deeply supportive of US Aerospace communities, but not blinded, ignoring unwelcome realities https://leehamnews.com/2020/06/24/looki ... es-boeing/

Image
picture: https://etn.travel/british-airways-resp ... #gsc.tab=0

Maybe Trump should set apart $20B and rally Boeing, Raytheon Technologies, NASA, GE behind the flag. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/17/busi ... index.html

Have them them to come up with a NB:
:arrow: 120-200 seats up to 3000 NM
:arrow: 8-10% more fuel efficient than NEO
:arrow: engine options also >2040
:arrow: container options
:arrow: EIS 2027.

Airlines around the world would order 1000 in weeks, motivated by restoring long term choice, competition. https://onemileatatime.com/iag-ceo-737-max-order/

Stop distracting around Covid-19, accept 737 is over, ask LUV & move on. Waiting, studying unrealistic concepts , doubting, becomes damaging it self. Just offer airlines to convert their 737 orders.

Take lessons learned from the proud US helicopter industry. They couldn't close the business cases on new design, with the biggest market in their backyards. A system failure not to be repeated? https://www.statista.com/statistics/111 ... ufacturer/

Congress / DoD can't bail out, not enough real enemy's & civil aerospace needs healthy competition long term.

First prio is to erase company draining leadership payment / short term bonus structures. Maybe replace by e.g. high fixed salaries & bonuses for long term company health & no golden parachutes.
Last edited by keesje on Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Noshow
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:37 am

This size is too small. We'd need like around 150 to 250 seats.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 10:48 am

Noshow wrote:
This size is too small. We'd need like around 150 to 250 seats.


Add a few more seats and give it 5-6,000 miles range. It would be great for the middle of the market and probably sell by the thousand. :wink2:
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:13 am

Order 1000 in weeks? Hmm....
 
kalvado
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:23 am

So if they launch today with EIS in 2027, when the first flight would happen? 2032?
 
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keesje
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:28 am

scbriml wrote:
Noshow wrote:
This size is too small. We'd need like around 150 to 250 seats.


Add a few more seats and give it 5-6,000 miles range. It would be great for the middle of the market and probably sell by the thousand. :wink2:


It's an uphill battle. On the top of the hill there is PIP'd A220-500 looking down. With PW1500G mkII engines delivering 26k lbs.
Anything also capable of 250 seats - 4000NM, probably won't stand a chance in that (huge) segment.

The supply chain / production system of a new aircraft should realistically include (e.g.) EU & China FAL's to ensure long term market penetration. (e.g. Dublin & Guangzhou). The days of "they'll buy anyway" are past us.

kalvado wrote:
So if they launch today with EIS in 2027, when the first flight would happen? 2032?


I think that if Boeing sticks to the after 2030 timeline, it will get very quiet in Wichita, Seattle and much of the supply chain towards 2030.

AirlineCritic wrote:
Order 1000 in weeks? Hmm....


It happened with the NEO in 2010 and XLR last year showed airlines want the slots if value is clear.
Last edited by keesje on Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:31 am

Government -directed industry? Leave it to the Communists and the French. Boeing, Raytheon and GE have the financial resources they need for any effort. Let them risk shareholder money.
 
Flflyer83
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:01 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Government -directed industry? Leave it to the Communists and the French. Boeing, Raytheon and GE have the financial resources they need for any effort. Let them risk shareholder money.


It’s already a government-directed industry under the guise of military contracts. $28 billion or 31% of Boeing’s revenue in 2019 was off of government contracts.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:09 pm

I think the 737 Max is very good. Also think the A220 and A320 NEO are very good. Do you really need better solutions?

The Boeing may not be everybody's favorite, but it's a usable platform that can perform very well for many many years.
 
Noshow
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:28 pm

Boeing should just develop some single aisle 787-style CFRP-family with some super efficient wing now. Add some latest generation GE engines and they are good to go. Keep systems and cockpit similar between it and the 787.
And please leave enough space under the wings for larger diameter future engines!
 
Exeiowa
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:34 pm

I thought the lesson of the last generation of airplanes was when engine tech is ready then build a new plane. Otherwise you get rather caught out. So when the ultrafan or what ever else comes on stream then design an aircraft to most utilize it.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:43 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
I thought the lesson of the last generation of airplanes was when engine tech is ready then build a new plane. Otherwise you get rather caught out. So when the ultrafan or what ever else comes on stream then design an aircraft to most utilize it.

Chicken and egg. If there is no plane to hang the engine on, there is no engine and if the engine does not fly in normal operations, it does not mature.
 
jghealey
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:48 pm

keesje wrote:

AirlineCritic wrote:
Order 1000 in weeks? Hmm....


It happened with the NEO in 2010 and XLR last year showed airlines want the slots if value is clear.

Well yes, were this to be announced in 2010 or 19, it may well have been getting 1000s in orders very soon after launch. I hate to be a pessimist, but airlines simply don't have the finances nor the long term security to be placing orders at the moment. Boeing is already cash strapped and just converting existing 737 orders probably wouldn't generate enough funding to justify it.
 
kalvado
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:49 pm

keesje wrote:

kalvado wrote:
So if they launch today with EIS in 2027, when the first flight would happen? 2032?


I think that if Boeing sticks to the after 2030 timeline, it will get very quiet in Wichita, Seattle and much of the supply chain towards 2030.

There are gaps between what someone want to do, what can be realistically planned, and what may be achieved. Boeing may plan for 2027 with a tongue in cheek, but contracts better to be set up so that penalties do not take off till 2035.
 
Noshow
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:50 pm

Whenever Boeing develops some new narrow body you can bet that every engine manufacturer will have something ready. Just look at the 787 for comparison how this worked.
 
enplaned
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:17 pm

Agree that it's too small. Here's what's needed: family of narrowbodies. Size three fuselage lengths so that, at ULCC pitch, the aircraft has 200, 250 and 300 seats. Two class configuration will be less than that - the small fuselage in two class would be 160 seats if you're Delta, 190 if you're American ;-)

Two wings. One continental, one intercontinental. With the big wing, something like 4500nm, with the smaller wing more like 2500nm.

Fuselage should be just wider than the A320. Provisions for containerized freight in the belly and future proof the aircraft for freighter conversion.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:22 pm

scbriml wrote:
Noshow wrote:
This size is too small. We'd need like around 150 to 250 seats.


Add a few more seats and give it 5-6,000 miles range. It would be great for the middle of the market and probably sell by the thousand. :wink2:

Perhaps 7-across seating?

The small narrowbody market is a bloodbath between Mitsubishi, Embraer, and the A220.

With all the US content in the A220, I'm ok with it owning its small niche.

Lightsaber
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par13del
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:37 pm

Flflyer83 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Government -directed industry? Leave it to the Communists and the French. Boeing, Raytheon and GE have the financial resources they need for any effort. Let them risk shareholder money.


It’s already a government-directed industry under the guise of military contracts. $28 billion or 31% of Boeing’s revenue in 2019 was off of government contracts.

So the US Air Force a government agency putting penalties on Boeing for the tanker delays is fake news, does the US government actually charge Boeing penalties for these contracts when they fail to deliver products on time like what takes place in the commercial side of the business? If so, is it really a guise of military contracts or is the contract actually to build and deliver some product to the US military?
Based on all the complaints about Boeing military contracts, I shudder to think what the atmosphere would be if Boeing was the largest USA military vendor.
 
Noshow
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:38 pm

Do 300 seats still work as a narrowbody? That must be 8 abreast? Better 7 or it will be a pain to sit in there.
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:48 pm

Another MOM thread... Did we need another one this week?
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enplaned
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 1:49 pm

Noshow wrote:
Do 300 seats still work as a narrowbody? That must be 8 abreast? Better 7 or it will be a pain to sit in there.


757-300 says that in 1-class seating its 280 with a 295 limit. That's from Wikipedia, for what it's worth. For the right routes, 757-300 is extremely cost effective.
 
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keesje
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:13 pm

They now have to go after 120-200 seats up to 3000NM. Because instead of the CSeries, the MAX didn't make it.

MoM/NMA concepts hit the wall time and time again when the airlines were profitable and the market booming. And Boeing expected the MAX would be ok.

If you go bigger, more capable, it won't be much better than A321, more importantly it doesn't stand a chance below 160 seats, against light and nimble 223s & A225s flying 1-3 hour flights, the bulk of the market.

8-10% more fuel efficient than the NEO doesn't come with a SUV. That's what killed the A319 and 737-7.

If you feel this is all very costly and risky, imagine the huge 737 supply chain and FAL 2020-2030, when big customers cancel their MAX orders & ask compensation.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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WesternDC6B
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:51 pm

“ Maybe Trump should set apart $20B and rally Boeing, Raytheon Technologies, NASA, GE behind the flag. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/17/busi ... index.html”

No. Whether Trump or another president, no. Boeing is a big boy. Let them stand or fall on their product line. No handouts.
A big heart is commendable. An enlarged heart is a medical condition.
 
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WesternDC6B
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:55 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Another MOM thread... Did we need another one this week?


About as much as a 757 revival thread.
A big heart is commendable. An enlarged heart is a medical condition.
 
Noshow
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Re: Opinion: Launch a Super Lean NB for US Civil Aerospace Now.

Sat Jun 27, 2020 6:48 am

If Boeing thinks this aircraft size is needed they should develop something new not warm up something old. Warming things up has backfired too much recently.

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