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MalevA346
Topic Author
Posts: 48
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:30 pm

Airlines taking advantage of Covid in the long term

Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:50 pm

Hello all of You out there!

What do You think which airlines will be the operational and financial winners of the changes due to Covid?
 
tonystan
Posts: 1704
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 7:39 am

Re: Winners of Covid

Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:57 pm

I don’t think there are any winners. This situation will damage the industry for a long time and the profits lost will never be recovered.

However for those that do survive the pandemic there is already loud and clear evidence that some airlines and groups (more than others) are taking advantage of the situation to implement long standing cost cutting wish lists in order to further streamline their business.

But hard to tell if this will make them winners as someone down the line will suffer long term be it the employees, the customers or the suppliers! It’s all about keeping the shareholders happy at the end of the day. It’s wrong but that’s where we’re at.
My views are my own and do not reflect any other person or organisation.
 
Exeiowa
Posts: 343
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:49 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:02 pm

I think "winner" = least damaged. There will be airlines that go under during this time, and others that take significant hits. As things return to normal you would expect the more healthy to take out some of the weaker competitors. Who survives best is probably down to a combination of location, goverment support, access to resources and timing of contacts. The "winners" are unlikely to be selected by a free market though.
 
26point2
Posts: 1101
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:01 am

Re: Winners of Covid

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:05 pm

People will avoid airline travel for quite some time. Likely private aircraft ownership and charter will see a big uptick for those who can afford it.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5758
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:07 pm

Wizz Air could be a winner if they manage to make their new routes work.
 
User avatar
TheZ
Posts: 105
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 7:26 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:22 pm

Nobody wins when something like this happens. As for the biggest losers, that's still to be determined. But air travel will never be the same : (
If you have to say "pun intended," it's not a good enough pun.
 
N766UA
Posts: 8335
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 1999 3:50 am

Re: Winners of Covid

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:28 pm

Lol what a terrible title
 
zuckie13
Posts: 301
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:23 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:43 pm

Some of the pure Freight airlines are the only winners right now. Nobody who makes money carrying passengers feels like a winner right now.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15212
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:51 pm

Winners, if they could be really called that, would be some of the freight centered airlines/companies like FedEx, UPS, Amazon's contracted companies.

The most likely survivors will be those airlines with good and efficient management, low debt, own or have favorable leases for aircraft. have a 'right sized' fleet of models,sizes and of high efficiency, high flexibility and low paid staff, quantity of financial support of governments. Among USA based airlines, DL and WN have a good chance of survival on some of those criteria, AA is in relatively poor shape. Some non-USA based airlines have varying chances of 'winning' and survival of the pandemic, on the same criteria I note above. I suspect Ryanair, some LLC's will survive, the largest non-USA ones will be ok, including BA, LH, and some PRC based airlines.
 
eurotrader85
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:45 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:56 pm

I think those airlines which have a shorter time horizon to the recovery will be winners (bold statement I know). I.e. those who are envisaging recovery in 2021/22 rather than those out at 2024/25. Whizz air mentioned above is a good example. Those who give up slots expecting to pick them up again in a few years no problem may well rue the day when they try to get back into legacy hubs. Also those purchasing aircraft for their long term fleet development-has there ever been a better time? Think VN etc who are still ploughing on (all be it a state owned airline).
 
ZazuPIT
Posts: 125
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:32 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:57 pm

Seriously, you need to change the title. No one wins in this.
 
DFW17L
Posts: 259
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 2:53 am

Re: Winners of Covid

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:58 pm

I'd say any support company servicing ANC is doing a huge business. If I were an enterprising citizen of Anchorage, I'd be coming up with a service to support the ground services and flight crews at ANC.
 
peterinlisbon
Posts: 1810
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 3:37 am

Re: Winners of Covid

Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:04 pm

A crisis for some is an opportunity for others. Lease rates are down, slots are available and you can get a whole fleet of almost any aircraft type you want. A lot of experienced pilots and cabin crew and other staff are also available. Those with deep pockets might see this as a good time to invest if they time it right. New airlines might be able to spring up and grow quickly as the situation is resolved.
 
IADCA
Posts: 2180
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: Winners of Covid

Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:21 am

eurotrader85 wrote:
I think those airlines which have a shorter time horizon to the recovery will be winners (bold statement I know). I.e. those who are envisaging recovery in 2021/22 rather than those out at 2024/25. Whizz air mentioned above is a good example. Those who give up slots expecting to pick them up again in a few years no problem may well rue the day when they try to get back into legacy hubs. Also those purchasing aircraft for their long term fleet development-has there ever been a better time? Think VN etc who are still ploughing on (all be it a state owned airline).


"Envisaging" is a pretty important word here. I can't tell you the number of utterly batshit, pie-in-the-sky corporate internal plans I've seen floated because executives are scared of telling boards, their stockholders, and by extension the world anything resembling the truth. That's not exclusive to this industry, but I'd take with a mountain of salt anyone who thinks they'll have anything approaching full recovery in 2021/22. And by that I mean that I'd wait until some moron prices that expectation into their stock and then I'd short the hell out of it.
 
FCOTSTW
Posts: 214
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:13 pm

Easy: those who receive government grants. They are actually be the airlines with limited losses.
For as strange as it might sound, those airlines with cash (if there is any) will be able to invest at a fraction in order to reap benefits in 24/48 months from now, when markets will come back.
Needless to say: cash in king.
 
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FlyRow
Posts: 850
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2016 10:05 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:21 pm

The enviroment?
F70-F100-RJ85-RJ70-E190-319-320-321-733-734-735-737-738-752-753-763-764-772-744-380
 
HNLSLCPDX
Posts: 213
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2015 5:40 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:43 pm

Already mentioned, thousands will lose jobs or be furloughed. No win situation at all.

There will be lessons learned and improvements made, that’s the big thing that should be taken from all this. Hopefully the level of cleanliness will continue on once COVID passes. Also I hope airlines across the board learn that they cannot depend on their airline partners as much as they thought they could, regardless of how much money you throw their way.
 
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Boeing757100
Posts: 264
Joined: Wed May 06, 2020 10:09 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:20 pm

Cargo, Charter, VIP.

Sadly, no one is clear winner tho. Millions of jobs will be in jeopardy, profits lost, airline partnerships/alliances damaged, among other stuff.
Just change the title.
 
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Boeing757100
Posts: 264
Joined: Wed May 06, 2020 10:09 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:21 pm

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Also I hope airlines across the board learn that they cannot depend on their airline partners as much as they thought they could, regardless of how much money you throw their way.


Delta needs to start taking notes.
 
dredgy
Posts: 495
Joined: Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:13 am

Re: Winners of Covid

Fri Jul 10, 2020 11:21 am

Qatar could actually do very well out of this, assuming the Qatari government is footing the bill. They seem to be using this as one giant marketing campaign.

Giving tickets to frontline medical staff, status matching elites on bankrupt airlines (Virgin, SAA) and continuing to operate flights for repatriation. Here in Australia they've built alot of goodwill amongst the general public who might have otherwise never really heard of them.

It's an expensive campaign, but they are trying to attract new long term customers.
 
johns624
Posts: 2794
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:21 pm

peterinlisbon wrote:
A crisis for some is an opportunity for others. Lease rates are down, slots are available and you can get a whole fleet of almost any aircraft type you want. A lot of experienced pilots and cabin crew and other staff are also available. Those with deep pockets might see this as a good time to invest if they time it right. New airlines might be able to spring up and grow quickly as the situation is resolved.
All that is good, but you still need passengers...
 
MalevA346
Topic Author
Posts: 48
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:30 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:10 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Wizz Air could be a winner if they manage to make their new routes work.


Exactly what I thought... The other airline I'd bet on is Copa in Americas, though it seems to be in a more complex situation then WizzAir in Europe (and ME). These - let's say - mid sized airlines can and do react more quickly, hence they'll recover faster and gain market share. They can start or end routes with way less effort then their big competitors, moreover, they don't fly transatlantic where recovery will be much slower.

At least this is what logic tells me in nowadays totally illogic world.
 
MalevA346
Topic Author
Posts: 48
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:30 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:11 pm

N766UA wrote:
Lol what a terrible title


I know, suggest one please...
 
Chemist
Posts: 750
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:46 am

Re: Winners of Covid

Sat Jul 11, 2020 5:39 pm

MalevA346 wrote:
N766UA wrote:
Lol what a terrible title


I know, suggest one please...


Mostly likely to succeed out of COVID
 
IADCA
Posts: 2180
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: Winners of Covid

Sat Jul 11, 2020 5:42 pm

MalevA346 wrote:
N766UA wrote:
Lol what a terrible title


I know, suggest one please...


Which carriers hurt least by COVID?
 
bfitzflyer
Posts: 411
Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:02 am

Re: Winners of Covid

Sun Jul 12, 2020 1:45 pm

Which Carriers will come of COVID in the best shape.
 
steveinbc
Posts: 321
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 4:30 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Sun Jul 12, 2020 3:51 pm

I would say that covid will reshape the industry and the dynamics between suppliers and customers in most areas. For example, as another poster suggested, cargo is a critical service right now hence I foresee airlines paying more attention to that side of the business including the ability to rapidly transfer between passenger and cargo loads. I also foresee the airports and governments having to reduce or modify their endless upcharging of landing fees and taxes....for the life of me why is the UK still charging a passenger duty of about $120 each way? I also foresee that the glut of new aircraft will modify prices in the new and second hand market. I would also suggest that for efficiency reasons we will see a focus on hub and spoke again and less on secondary to secondary markets. It will be a fascinating, but sobering, to see and analyze what all this has done. Finally, from my perspective, covid is the final nail in the coffin for the " benefits" of globalization. We will see more nationally determined political decisions for the next five years or more as we reexamine our inter dependencies and the associated vulnerabilities
A319 320 321 330 340 380 B707 727 737 747 757 767 777 787 BAe1-11 Trident 1, 2, 3B Viscount Lancaster VC10 HS748, ATP DHC-1, 3 Dash-8 Dash-400 Shorts 330 360 Embraer Banderiante Brasileria 175 190 BAe146 Saab 200 DC-3 -8 -9 -10 MD-11 ATR42-72
 
MalevA346
Topic Author
Posts: 48
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:30 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:29 pm

I asked for a new title: "Airlines taking advantage of Covid in long term"
(I still believe WizzAir is a kind of winner...)
 
bfitzflyer
Posts: 411
Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:02 am

Re: Winners of Covid

Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:23 pm

MalevA346 wrote:
I asked for a new title: "Airlines taking advantage of Covid in long term"
(I still believe WizzAir is a kind of winner...)


Equally bad title
 
MalevA346
Topic Author
Posts: 48
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:30 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Tue Jul 14, 2020 7:30 pm

bfitzflyer wrote:
MalevA346 wrote:
I asked for a new title: "Airlines taking advantage of Covid in long term"
(I still believe WizzAir is a kind of winner...)


Equally bad title


What is sure is that the airliners community is in its worst shape since ever.
 
airhansa
Posts: 380
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:18 pm

Re: Winners of Covid

Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:07 am

WN has a lot of cash reserves and is in a position to overtake competitor airlines. I also have a suspicion that a number of the larger legacy airlines in Europe will come out the crisis with less competition to deal with. A per above the freight carriers appear to be having a field day with less hold cargo available.

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