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Idea - AA/AS Aircraft Trade

Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:00 pm
by UA748i
Reading about the possibility of AA cancelling some of their MAX orders made me think about where the airline would go, fleet wise.

I touched on the concept of AA and AS swapping aircraft several months back, but with the current issues, it made the state of the industry interesting, to say the least.

Hypothetically, consider this. What if AA did these things:

-Traded MAX orders to AS, in exchange for their A32N aircraft (30x A320neo and 10x A321neo)
-Sold/Leased out 7M8s on property
-Converted remaining MAX orders to 15-20x 78Js to replace remaining 77Es mid to late decade

AA fleet in the late 2020s being

-A320 (A319, A320, A320neo, A321, A321neo, A321XLR
-737-800
787 (-8, -9, -10)
777-300ER

With the assumption that an FSA next decade can be ordered to replace additional 737s and older A320s going forward.

Feasible?

Re: Idea - AA/AS Aircraft Trade

Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:07 pm
by 32andBelow
I don’t think Alaska wants that many max8s. If they can convert them to 9s then maybe

Re: Idea - AA/AS Aircraft Trade

Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:25 pm
by jaybird
I don't know that any airline wants any additional frames right now ..

Re: Idea - AA/AS Aircraft Trade

Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:30 pm
by MIflyer12
UA748i wrote:
Hypothetically, consider this. What if AA did these things:

-Traded MAX orders to AS, in exchange for their A32N aircraft (30x A320neo and 10x A321neo)


If AS gets rid of all 32x it gains fleet simplification, both in aircraft and pilot groups. AA doesn't really gain anything - it would still have 738s.

Re: Idea - AA/AS Aircraft Trade

Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:47 pm
by argentinevol98
I agree that this could make sense for AS...but I can't really see how it makes sense for AA. AA has invested a lot on the MAX and their fleet strategy as of now makes a lot of sense to me. They have a huge 738 fleet and a large A321 fleet. Going for the 7M8 in the A320/738 size class and the A321 in larger size class makes a ton of sense. From a commonality perspective at AA already it fits right into their existing previous generation equipment (NG/CEO). Additionally I tend to think that both are probably the "best" aircraft in their class. Some will disagree with me for sure, but I think that once the current MAX issues are fixed the 7M8 will prove to be a slightly "better" a/c on its own than the A320N and, by the same token, even after the 7MJ is certified I think the A321N will prove to be superior to it as it already has with the existing 7M9. I like the idea of a 7M8/A321N combo being the backbone of the NB fleet.

Re: Idea - AA/AS Aircraft Trade

Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:23 pm
by ShinyAndChrome
I doubt AA would want a bunch of used, leased Airbus frames that they wouldn't even be able to fill in the current environment.

Re: Idea - AA/AS Aircraft Trade

Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:54 pm
by Cointrin330
Unlikely given the COVID19 induced environment and the cost complexities associated with painting, refurbishing, and applying fleet standards, and AA really does not get much. My sense is AA will eventually proceed with the MAX8s and use them to replace the oldest 737-800s on a 1:1 basis. I do think AA and AS are potential merger candidates down the road if the industry does not rebound meaningfully in 2021. Same goes for others in the industry.

Re: Idea - AA/AS Aircraft Trade

Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2020 9:12 pm
by FSDan
UA748i wrote:
-Converted remaining MAX orders to 15-20x 78Js to replace remaining 77Es mid to late decade


Currently all 47 77Es are "remaining". I assume you were accounting for the 25 incoming 789s (from 2022 or 2023?) as additional 1-to-1 77E replacements?

Re: Idea - AA/AS Aircraft Trade

Posted: Sat Jul 11, 2020 4:23 am
by LAXBUR
Cointrin330 wrote:
I do think AA and AS are potential merger candidates down the road if the industry does not rebound meaningfully in 2021. Same goes for others in the industry.


That’s been said by many for many years. At least 20 years.

Re: Idea - AA/AS Aircraft Trade

Posted: Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:08 pm
by Cointrin330
LAXBUR wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
I do think AA and AS are potential merger candidates down the road if the industry does not rebound meaningfully in 2021. Same goes for others in the industry.


That’s been said by many for many years. At least 20 years.


AA and AS have had varying degrees of cooperation for decades, stretching back to the early 1990s.

Re: Idea - AA/AS Aircraft Trade

Posted: Sat Jul 11, 2020 3:28 pm
by aemoreira1981
I doubt AS would do this trade. The plane they really want is the 7M9, and with all of their 73Gs and 73Js owned (only 12 of the 73Hs are leased). Their 73H fleet is also significantly newer than the oldest 73Hs in the AA fleet, which AA needs to replace (their oldest 73H is from 1999). AA needs the 7M8 as replacements and would not want to take on bad A20N/A21N leases.

BTW, when was the last trade done between airlines involving aircraft? I know that there was a trade between Pan Am and American in 1984 (747s for DC-10s).