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dca1
Topic Author
Posts: 33
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:39 pm

Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:51 pm

Part 1 of 3 of this assertion. It seems like 6 months ago, I would have laughed at this... but COVID has changed a lot. With both carriers getting closer to AA I could see this happening now. Thoughts?

https://captainjetson.com/featured/is-a ... -of-3/?amp
Last edited by dca1 on Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
32andBelow
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Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:00 pm

No it’s not inevitable.
 
Ishrion
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Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:07 pm

dca1 wrote:
Part 1 of 3 of this assertion. It seems like 6 months ago, I would have laughed at this... but COVID has changed a lot. With both carriers getting closer to AA I could see this happening now. Thoughts?

https://captainjetson.com/featured/is-a ... -of-3/?amp


Wouldn’t a merger like this force them to scale back the AA partnership similar to when AS acquired Virgin America?
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:28 pm

Ishrion wrote:

Wouldn’t a merger like this force them to scale back the AA partnership similar to when AS acquired Virgin America?


Hard to speculate in the current environment but I would lean towards yes. Better AA/AS/B6 do their own thing and have a three-way when and where its convenient.
"My soul is in the sky". -Pyramus- A Midsummer's Night Dream
 
Italianflyer
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Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:33 pm

Then you end up with a 'barbell' network like the US/PSA venture. Maximizing assets by operating sectors in the west or east before bridge flying to the other region; great in theory but was a mess in reality. And it's not like anyone, especially a newly merged entity, would entertain opening a new mid country hub in the foreseeable future.
 
hohd
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Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:50 pm

A full code share alliance, may be beneficial to both airlines now. If they go the code share route, the AA code share can be left intact. Even on a merger, AA can still code share.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:55 pm

I'll take the bait....any B6/AS merger most likely would put the AA agreements in jeopardy. American is very cunning. They are keeping a wedge between AS and B6 so the only viable option for either of them is a merger with AA. The carrier playing second fiddle to that merger is relegated to an alliance with AA. The winner: AA
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:56 pm

dca1 wrote:
Part 1 of 3 of this assertion. It seems like 6 months ago, I would have laughed at this... but COVID has changed a lot. With both carriers getting closer to AA I could see this happening now. Thoughts?

https://captainjetson.com/featured/is-a ... -of-3/?amp


The author of that link really needs to put on some big-boy pants and learn to use words. A few thinly-presented remarks splattered between a bunch of pictures does not a compelling analysis or argument make.

The reference up-thread the the barbell network of US + PSA is a good one. Even if AS and B6 merged they really wouldn't have a nationwide network a la AA/DL/UA. AS is, for the most part, a West Coast carrier plus some typically low-frequency routes to select destinations in the East and Midwest to serve flyers from SEA/PDX/LAX (and a lesser degree from the Bay Area and SAN). B6 plays the same way from JFK/BOS. A merger would still leave them with big gaps in destinations, routings and frequency in the middle.

One might also question if the U.S. really needs a 4th nationwide network carrier (a role that WN doesn't play in spite of its size, due to destination and frequency holes from lack of RJs). There's been more growth in the last ~20 years on the part of LCCs and ULCCs. B6 - and somewhat less, AS - have pretty successfully played to that. Would they really aspire to being AA/DL/UA? Even AA doesn't want to be AA!

So we're left with the question if AS and B6 are large enough to compete in the absence of a merger. Spirit, Frontier and Allegiant surely hope so because they are smaller still! IMHO they need to be careful in acquiring too much fleet complexity because that also establishes pilot constraints (type groups, bases, just flat-out integer constraints) and limit aircraft substitution. The successes of Southwest and Ryanair with a single type shouldn't be dismissed.
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
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Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 5:12 pm

Italianflyer wrote:
Then you end up with a 'barbell' network like the US/PSA venture. Maximizing assets by operating sectors in the west or east before bridge flying to the other region; great in theory but was a mess in reality. And it's not like anyone, especially a newly merged entity, would entertain opening a new mid country hub in the foreseeable future.



This was my first thought also. The USAir/PSA route map was scary skewed toward the costs and at the time US still had a decent presence in CLE. It got worse after the Piedmont merger and US being concentrated on the east coast outside California service.
 
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RWA380
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Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:54 pm

With AS speeding up their entry into O/W, I assert there would be little value to B6 being absorbed by AAG. Almost any meaningful place B6 flies, AA does as well. AS & AA enjoy a code-sharing arrangement domestically & that better suits the direction AS has been going for decades. Other than real estate at airports like JFK (A place AS plans on expanding from & the home to the only boardroom in the Eastern time zone) or BOS, another already well served airport, there is nothing else AS would want, they certainly are not currently interested in A-320's much as most remain parked. The A-321's would not be a match to the current A-321's AS has.
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tiptoe42
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Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:53 pm

RWA380 wrote:
With AS speeding up their entry into O/W, I assert there would be little value to B6 being absorbed by AAG. Almost any meaningful place B6 flies, AA does as well. AS & AA enjoy a code-sharing arrangement domestically & that better suits the direction AS has been going for decades. Other than real estate at airports like JFK (A place AS plans on expanding from & the home to the only boardroom in the Eastern time zone) or BOS, another already well served airport, there is nothing else AS would want, they certainly are not currently interested in A-320's much as most remain parked. The A-321's would not be a match to the current A-321's AS has.


Alaska isn’t expanding in JFK
 
strfyr51
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Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:12 pm

Neither AS or B6 has made much of foray into the heartland of the USA, . WN has started that way with their buildup at Denver but time will tell if they go any further with their Eastern development. BWI has not made them a true eastern US carrier yet. .But they are in at ATL so it remains to be seen their Eastern Seaboard intentions.
AS is doing well on the West Coast but they only have a smattering of central routes and not much of a Central or Mountain time zone structure. B6 is mainly
eastern with a smattering of West coast work in progress so none of then are raising any hell in becoming a National Carrier. . Now were F9 and B6 to strike an accord?
Or AS an NK? We might see a little Hell being raised and pretty quickly.. They might not scare anybody? But they would catch some real notice.
 
bfitzflyer
Posts: 479
Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:02 am

Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Tue Aug 18, 2020 12:02 am

More likely to see AA buy B6 and DL buys AS. Kind of like DL and NW came out of Bankruptcy together. I could see something like this a year or two down the road.
 
kfinger
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Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:03 pm

Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Tue Mar 02, 2021 12:56 am

strfyr51 wrote:
Neither AS or B6 has made much of foray into the heartland of the USA, . WN has started that way with their buildup at Denver but time will tell if they go any further with their Eastern development. BWI has not made them a true eastern US carrier yet. .But they are in at ATL so it remains to be seen their Eastern Seaboard intentions.
AS is doing well on the West Coast but they only have a smattering of central routes and not much of a Central or Mountain time zone structure. B6 is mainly
eastern with a smattering of West coast work in progress so none of then are raising any hell in becoming a National Carrier. . Now were F9 and B6 to strike an accord?
Or AS an NK? We might see a little Hell being raised and pretty quickly.. They might not scare anybody? But they would catch some real notice.


They're already in the heartland, but in a limited way. Many destinations only have service to the main hub. So regardless of where you want to go, you have to fly all the way to SEA or JFK to connect, then backtrack to your final destination. I don't know if a merger would be beneficial to build on their current respective strengths in the west coast and east coast, or if we've had enough mergers already. But if they did, maybe a hub at MCI, IND or OMA would simulate more traffic in the middle part of the country.
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:44 am

Maybe they could open a hub in STL ? Eventually AA might then buy them ? Or has that been tried already ?
 
kfinger
Posts: 31
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:03 pm

Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Tue Mar 02, 2021 4:14 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Maybe they could open a hub in STL ? Eventually AA might then buy them ? Or has that been tried already ?


STL is already a SWA focus city.
 
Runway765
Posts: 253
Joined: Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:21 am

Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:15 pm

kfinger wrote:
davidjohnson6 wrote:
Maybe they could open a hub in STL ? Eventually AA might then buy them ? Or has that been tried already ?


STL is already a SWA focus city.


It’s not a crew domicile and frankly, the only reason it even has the service it does from WN is likely because MDW is constrained. STL doesn’t really make sense in WN’s network, especially in light of the buildup of DEN. STL would make much more sense as a B6 hub.
 
davidjohnson6
Posts: 1244
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:10 pm

Re: Is a merger inevitable between JetBlue and Alaska?

Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:37 pm

I was thinking more of TWA who had a hub in STL.... how AA bought TWA and now has very little to show for it...

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