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Opus99
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MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:47 am

I thought I would start this thread as I haven’t seen anything like it. The MAX is now on the way back. Yesterday the FAA released their draft training report from the JOEB which will close November 2nd. Analysts are saying mid November we should be the re certification time.

Now; we are hearing Boeing is pushing the aircraft to some big names in the industry. They were going to do a tour but obviously that’s a bad idea so they’d rather get some big names to commit to boost confidence in the jet. Now I’m going to link to articles below. One talking about possible MAX customers; Ryanair, Alaska and Delta

Now Alaska yesterday said they will be pushing out their 320s and focusing only on the Boeing fleet.

We know Ryanair is looking to close something by YE especially on the MAX 10.

And we know Boeing is looking at Delta to take up some white tails.

What is our take on this? Will these deals close and will they boost the confidence in the jet?

https://twitter.com/dominicgates/status ... 25920?s=21

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/new ... eland.html

https://seekingalpha.com/article/437771 ... crisis-win
 
2175301
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:18 am

My opionion is that:
Delta will likely be willing to take some of the now built "white tails" at a great price IF CFM allows Delta to set up an engine shop for the engine.

Alaska perhaps for a dozen; especially if they can get a really great price on existing built aircraft with no current customer.

Ryanair is almost a certainty by end of year, and will take white tails that don't go to Delta or Alaska if they are Max 10's.

It's entirely possible that Boeing could close deals with all of these by the end of the year.

Have a great day,
 
DaCubbyBearBar
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:30 am

It is possible that Alaska, Ryanair, and Delta all move forward with a deal for new planes with Boeing. BUT I believe that Boeing is almost going to have to give the planes away. The capacity just isn't needed for the foreseeable future........
I am me and no one else...so my opinions are mine
 
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keesje
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:36 am

Of course Boeing is pushing, promoting, looking for opportunities. But reality is brutal, they are mainly fighting to prevent further order cancellations.

Lots of parked aircraft looking for new users, Airbus having slots, A220/A321's doesn't help at all.

+ Airlines & their passengers don't seem eager to take MAX's.
Last edited by keesje on Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
MIflyer12
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:49 am

DaCubbyBearBar wrote:
It is possible that Alaska, Ryanair, and Delta all move forward with a deal for new planes with Boeing. BUT I believe that Boeing is almost going to have to give the planes away. The capacity just isn't needed for the foreseeable future........


Two things:

1. Aircraft are long-lived assets. State of demand for the next two or three years isn't a big deal for an asset that has a 25-year life.

2. A primary alternative to fleet expansion can be fleet simplification - getting rid of a type, parts, and fragmented pilot groups to save $$$. That could motivate AS and Ryanair (and others).

Likewise there are a couple big questions about buying now:

1. Does a carrier have the balance sheet/financing/earnings prospects to afford these now?

2. Has the price of these MAXs really hit bottom or might they go even lower?

This could be a great time for WN to continue upgauging by dumping fifty -700s and placing an incremental order for 40 MAX 8s - maybe even renegotiating current contract prices.
 
ewt340
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:54 am

Ryanair only buy aircraft during crisis. So Boeing would be banking on them for this comeback.

I wouldn't expect much orders from the Chinese Airlines or other Europeans.
Last edited by ewt340 on Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
raylee67
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:55 am

Boeing definitely would want to be able to announce a big order from an established and respected airline at the same time MAX re-certification announcement is made.

Delta would be top-of-the-list in Boeing's mind. And Delta CEO has also said that he would consider MAX. See below:
https://www.reuters.com/article/boeing- ... SKBN26M5JK
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/delta-ceo ... g-737-max/

There are some airlines who have 737NG or A320ceo but have not ordered MAX or neo as replacements yet too. May be Boeing will try to give them a really good price and sweet deal. E.g.
JAL has 49 737-800, no MAX/neo order
KLM has 52 737-700/-800/-900, no MAX/neo order although the smaller -700 may be replaced partially by E2
319/20/21 332/33 342/43/45 359/51 388 707 717 732/36/3G/38/39 74R/42/43/44/4E/48 757 762/63 772/7L/73/7W 788/89 D10 M80 135/40/45 175/90 DH1/4 CRJ/R7 L10
AY LH OU SR BA FI LX
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK PD
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
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keesje
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:59 am

raylee67 wrote:
Boeing definitely would want to be able to announce a big order from an established and respected airline at the same time MAX re-certification announcement is made.

Delta would be top-of-the-list in Boeing's mind. And Delta CEO has also said that he would consider MAX. See below:
https://www.reuters.com/article/boeing- ... SKBN26M5JK
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/delta-ceo ... g-737-max/

There are some airlines who have 737NG or A320ceo but have not ordered MAX or neo as replacements yet too. May be Boeing will try to give them a really good price and sweet deal. E.g.
JAL has 49 737-800, no MAX/neo order
KLM has 52 737-700/-800/-900, no MAX/neo order although the smaller -700 may be replaced partially by E2


Delta, your link:
Its $14.2 billion in commitments as of June 30 are primarily for Airbus jets. Battling the pandemic, Delta has parked jets and Chief Executive Ed Bastian said in July he was seeking to minimize deliveries over the next two years and did not intend to spend cash on aircraft “for some period of time.”


The CBS link is Nov 2019, pre Covid..

If I were Bastian, I would pull forward A321LR/XLR's for keeping longer routes open / be the first to reopen with a low cost base.
Preventing Jetblue, AA and United from sneaking in. What will the rest value be of a MAX in 2040?
Last edited by keesje on Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:28 am, edited 4 times in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
max999
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:07 am

raylee67 wrote:
Boeing definitely would want to be able to announce a big order from an established and respected airline at the same time MAX re-certification announcement is made.

Delta would be top-of-the-list in Boeing's mind. And Delta CEO has also said that he would consider MAX. See below:
https://www.reuters.com/article/boeing- ... SKBN26M5JK
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/delta-ceo ... g-737-max/


If I managed Delta's aircraft purchasing, I'd ask Boeing to give me the same screaming deal pricing Ryanair would demand from Boeing. Or else, no deal.
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.
 
asdf
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:12 am

@MIflyer12:
If your business model breaks down, you won't need a super cheap asset either now, in three years or in 10 years.

It will all depend on how the pandemic progresses, how the treatment methods improve and whether there will be a vaccination.
In my opinion, buying a new aircraft for airlines is currently highly speculative, no matter if MAX or not MAX.
The state aid is already being driven back, thousands of aircraft are standing still all over the world and many of them are for sale.
If things go really badly, many perfectly serviced and operational jets will soon be available for scrap prices in a year or two.

Whoever picks out the most economical offers from these later, can go back to the market with ticket prices that are far below those that can offer the lines who bought the dumping price MAX`es in 2021.

What is the share of the device price (only the JET including financing costs) in the ticket costs?
 
2eng2efficient
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:27 pm

max999 wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
Boeing definitely would want to be able to announce a big order from an established and respected airline at the same time MAX re-certification announcement is made.

Delta would be top-of-the-list in Boeing's mind. And Delta CEO has also said that he would consider MAX. See below:
https://www.reuters.com/article/boeing- ... SKBN26M5JK
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/delta-ceo ... g-737-max/


If I managed Delta's aircraft purchasing, I'd ask Boeing to give me the same screaming deal pricing Ryanair would demand from Boeing. Or else, no deal.


And if I am Boeing’s sales team, I am calling CFM and begging for them to consider allowing Delta to set up an in-house LEAP maintenance program! It would be a shame to see a deal get scuttled on that sticking point.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:44 pm

2175301 wrote:
My opionion is that:
Delta will likely be willing to take some of the now built "white tails" at a great price IF CFM allows Delta to set up an engine shop for the engine.

Alaska perhaps for a dozen; especially if they can get a really great price on existing built aircraft with no current customer.

Ryanair is almost a certainty by end of year, and will take white tails that don't go to Delta or Alaska if they are Max 10's.

It's entirely possible that Boeing could close deals with all of these by the end of the year.

Have a great day,

Ryanair is just a question of price. They are positioned to buy and have a history of placing massively discounted orders during market downturns.

Delta is a possibility, but as noted, only if CFM allows an engine shop. This isn't optional, it is how DL (and LH) keep maintenance costs under control.
I think Alaska is a done deal, with only a few details to be determined to replace the A319/A320/A321s they inherited from the Virgin America purchase.

I didn't see any EU3 order... I wouldn't expect accepting any before 2022, but I would expect IAG to confirm their prior order, just at much better terms.

I would also add SouthWest. Yes, they are losing money, but they can finance and this is the time to buy.

Interesting times ahead,
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Exeiowa
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:50 pm

I would imagine their problem with getting an order, most airlines already have planes on order they might not really need at this point and into the future, Secondly the slack in the leasing fleet can easily cover airlines needs at a low price point. Ryan air is probably the best bet as a potential order.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:51 pm

asdf wrote:
@MIflyer12:
If your business model breaks down, you won't need a super cheap asset either now, in three years or in 10 years.

It will all depend on how the pandemic progresses, how the treatment methods improve and whether there will be a vaccination.
In my opinion, buying a new aircraft for airlines is currently highly speculative, no matter if MAX or not MAX.
The state aid is already being driven back, thousands of aircraft are standing still all over the world and many of them are for sale.
If things go really badly, many perfectly serviced and operational jets will soon be available for scrap prices in a year or two.

Whoever picks out the most economical offers from these later, can go back to the market with ticket prices that are far below those that can offer the lines who bought the dumping price MAX`es in 2021.

What is the share of the device price (only the JET including financing costs) in the ticket costs?


No, nobody should be buying new aircraft based on availability of aid. Note my remark: if carriers can afford new aircraft...

If the business model really breaks down it doesn't matter if a U.S. carrier has fifteen aircraft on order or 500 - Chapter 11 bankruptcy gives the carrier the unilateral right to cancel orders.

As for fraction of cost of aircraft vs. other elements, it's not the biggest one but it is the variable one. Labor really isn't a variable cost - not short run, not so much even medium term. Staffing is a function of regulatory requirements and maintenance intervals set by engine/frame manufacturers. Cost per hour of labor really isn't variable, either. Look at the pushback on wage/benefit reductions in the last two decades. Since the U.S. carrier reorganizations costs per labor hour have risen much faster than inflation - but they won't fall in a downturn (except for Delta's profit sharing payments which economist will tell you is a smart pay structure for very much that reason). In fact labor costs per unit may rise because it's the junior/lower pay rate people who will be furloughed. Fuel cost per million ASKm really isn't strongly variable under control of the carrier, either. One gets, what, a 12% improvement from a 321ceo to a 321neo? It's not like AA/DL/UA can make every CR9/E75 route a 739/321 route at half the frequency in search of lower fuel cost per seat mile.

If used/cheap were universally better than new aircraft, the investor-driven carriers - let's say DL/UA/AC/LH/IAG/Ryanair - would have a fleet 80% more than 20 years old. And they don't.

There is a case for opportunistic shopping by a few carriers. I don't see DL ordering 300 MAXs, but an order for 40 as mooted by Reuters... that seems entirely plausible... and another tranche of 40 when Boeing is again hard-up for a win, and again, and again - just the way they did with 739, A220, and A321ceo/neo orders.
 
jagraham
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:31 pm

DaCubbyBearBar wrote:
It is possible that Alaska, Ryanair, and Delta all move forward with a deal for new planes with Boeing. BUT I believe that Boeing is almost going to have to give the planes away. The capacity just isn't needed for the foreseeable future........


The MAX aircraft are that much more efficient than earlier 737s, particularly the 737-900. And the MAX10 is as big as an A321; not having an A321size narrowbody has been hurting Boeing. A replacement cycle is justified as long as the airplanes being replaced aren't parked.
 
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Dublinspotter
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:40 pm

Good afternoon all,

Just a point, (or rather a question) on FR and the MAX. The carrier was struggling a few months ago and was pleading to various governments for assistance to stay operational. I am no business owner, but surely it would be wiser for the airlines in general to stabilise their outgoings first by generating an income, and any profits should be stored to weather a future rainy day/season. I feel its unreasonable to plead poverty and accept government and taxpayers assistance, only to go out on a shopping spree when so many aircraft are stored already. It is a major waste of materials, existing asset potential, and hypocritical.

(https://www.businesstraveller.com/featu ... a-bailout/)

Again, I am no business expert, its just an observation!

Regards,
Dublinspotter
Dublinspotter
 
phxa340
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:46 pm

keesje wrote:
Of course Boeing is pushing, promoting, looking for opportunities. But reality is brutal, they are mainly fighting to prevent further order cancellations.

Lots of parked aircraft looking for new users, Airbus having slots, A220/A321's doesn't help at all.

+ Airlines & their passengers don't seem eager to take MAX's.


You keep pushing the narrative that passengers aren’t eager but it’s been proven over and over again that the vast majority of passengers aren’t aware of the aircraft that they are on and those that are actually feel safer due to the rigourous recertification. But keep pushing your Airbus is the only solution to everything idea ...
 
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RobK
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:53 pm

Pretty much every airline in the world is hanging on by a thread right now. No-one is ordering new planes and I don't see that changing for at least a few years with all this talk of lockdowns and restrictions being in place for years (here in the UK at least). Where are people going to be flying to on all this new metal? The hospitality industry is finished and travel restrictions/quarantines galore.

As someone said up thread, Boeing will have to give them away.
 
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Antaras
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:55 pm

There are rumors that Vietjet is finding somewhere to dump its A320/321ceo in the next 5 years and replace them with the MAX 8 and MAX 10.
One potential destination for those airframes is Thai VJ, where the VJ Group is eyeing a huge expansion, especially when the main competitors Thai, Bangkok Airw', Thai AirAsia, Thai Lion are all in large trouble while the Vietjet group is still making profits :D
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
WayexTDI
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:36 pm

phxa340 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Of course Boeing is pushing, promoting, looking for opportunities. But reality is brutal, they are mainly fighting to prevent further order cancellations.

Lots of parked aircraft looking for new users, Airbus having slots, A220/A321's doesn't help at all.

+ Airlines & their passengers don't seem eager to take MAX's.


You keep pushing the narrative that passengers aren’t eager but it’s been proven over and over again that the vast majority of passengers aren’t aware of the aircraft that they are on and those that are actually feel safer due to the rigourous recertification. But keep pushing your Airbus is the only solution to everything idea ...

Passengers couldn't care less on which aircraft they were flying.
However, for the past 2 years now, media have been hammering stories about the 737MAX; every time there was something on Boeing (even if not impacting the 737MAX), the story and the grounding of the 737MAX get brought up to light.
I am not so sure people will forget about the 737MAX, the 2 crashes and the longest grounding in recent history anytime soon. We shall see.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:55 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
I am not so sure people will forget about the 737MAX, the 2 crashes and the longest grounding in recent history anytime soon. We shall see.

Passengers world would fill an early model Comet if it meant the lowest fair on Priceline.
 
Capricorn
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:56 pm

Creative thinking, but airlines that have too many WBs and too few NBs might be an option for new orders, like EK, although there would certainly be a lot of competition form Leasing Companies who are in need to find new homes for their birds. And probably that means less 779 as it most likely would only be a conversion.
 
Antarius
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:00 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
I am not so sure people will forget about the 737MAX, the 2 crashes and the longest grounding in recent history anytime soon. We shall see.

Passengers world would fill an early model Comet if it meant the lowest fair on Priceline.


Hahahaha. But yes, so true.
Militant Centrist
Let's all just use some common sense
 
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keesje
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:00 pm

phxa340 wrote:

You keep pushing the narrative that passengers aren’t eager but it’s been proven over and over again that the vast majority of passengers aren’t aware of the aircraft that they are on and those that are actually feel safer due to the rigourous recertification. .


That might be truth, everybody forgets & things move on. Or it's not truth, it's unpredented & we see wishful thinking.

https://www.businessinsider.com/america ... &r=US&IR=T
https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news ... dence.html
https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/09/22/on ... -max-15044
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
asdf
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:23 pm

jagraham wrote:
DaCubbyBearBar wrote:
It is possible that Alaska, Ryanair, and Delta all move forward with a deal for new planes with Boeing. BUT I believe that Boeing is almost going to have to give the planes away. The capacity just isn't needed for the foreseeable future........


The MAX aircraft are that much more efficient than earlier 737s, particularly the 737-900. ....


during the pandemic the economy is going down worldwide
that usually sent the oilprices to a low

if oil is going to be cheap the better fuel efficience of a MAX compared to old planes is kinda meaningless
 
pythoniels
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:25 pm

I’m wondering, since RYR Ordered the higher capacity 737-max200, will Boeing offer a higher capacity max 10 to RYR and perhaps other airlines?
 
Vicenza
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:37 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Ryanair only buy aircraft during crisis. So Boeing would be banking on them for this comeback..


A pretty much silly, and wholly inaccurate, comment. Are you seriously saying Ryanair don't buy any aircraft in non-crises times?
 
Vicenza
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:39 pm

phxa340 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Of course Boeing is pushing, promoting, looking for opportunities. But reality is brutal, they are mainly fighting to prevent further order cancellations.

Lots of parked aircraft looking for new users, Airbus having slots, A220/A321's doesn't help at all.

+ Airlines & their passengers don't seem eager to take MAX's.


You keep pushing the narrative that passengers aren’t eager but it’s been proven over and over again that the vast majority of passengers aren’t aware of the aircraft that they are on and those that are actually feel safer due to the rigourous recertification. But keep pushing your Airbus is the only solution to everything idea ...


Nothing of the sort has been 'proven', other than the standard a.net narrative that seemingly everyone but a.net members knows nothing about aircraft.
 
Vicenza
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:40 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
I am not so sure people will forget about the 737MAX, the 2 crashes and the longest grounding in recent history anytime soon. We shall see.

Passengers world would fill an early model Comet if it meant the lowest fair on Priceline.


And, make no mistake, that would include probably a good 90% of a.net members.
 
Galore
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:42 pm

So these airlines blackmail the government right now with “give us money or we fire hundreds of thousands” and Boeing thinks these airlines will go shop for the reworked MAX while they cannot even fill their existing equipment?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:45 pm

Antarius wrote:
NameOmitted wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
I am not so sure people will forget about the 737MAX, the 2 crashes and the longest grounding in recent history anytime soon. We shall see.

Passengers world would fill an early model Comet if it meant the lowest fair on Priceline.


Hahahaha. But yes, so true.

Agreed. In particular as airlines will probably publish everything as 737-7/-8/-9/-10 and quietly, after EIS, avoid the MAX trademark.

I had friends from Douglas engineering ranting on how that one A320 crash at an airshow would stop all sales. NW and UA took the offer and the rest is history.

I see no reason AS wouldn't take the opportunity to cheaply consolidate their fleet.

FR is committed. The -10 will add the synthetic sensor and then every regulator will be happy.

The FAA just proposed the MAX RTS pilot training additions.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/07/faa ... dures.html

That seems reasonable from both sides of the argument. It looks like RTS in late 2020 is still possible (but possible to slip into 2021 at this point).

I'll fly on the RTS MAX without a 2nd thought (after pilot training). There are many aircraft and a few airlines I wouldn't fly on. At this time, I would fly on any Airbus, Embraer, Bombardier, ATR, or Boeing product not on my short list of airlines I wouldn't fly. (I'm not listing airlines as that is another thread.)

As to FR, they can borrow and survive.
I'm mostly a Pratt fan, so as much as I want PW110G, PW1500G, PW 1200G, or PW1900G to sell, that doesn't end the business case for the MAX.

Customers on Priceline would literally buy tickets on anything. If the opinions of FR mattered here, they would have been out of business years ago. Same with NK and...

Lightsaber
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Antarius
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:54 pm

Vicenza wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Of course Boeing is pushing, promoting, looking for opportunities. But reality is brutal, they are mainly fighting to prevent further order cancellations.

Lots of parked aircraft looking for new users, Airbus having slots, A220/A321's doesn't help at all.

+ Airlines & their passengers don't seem eager to take MAX's.


You keep pushing the narrative that passengers aren’t eager but it’s been proven over and over again that the vast majority of passengers aren’t aware of the aircraft that they are on and those that are actually feel safer due to the rigourous recertification. But keep pushing your Airbus is the only solution to everything idea ...


Nothing of the sort has been 'proven', other than the standard a.net narrative that seemingly everyone but a.net members knows nothing about aircraft.


If you listen to a.net, the 737 is a old outdated dog that has cramped seating and is so uncomfortable that no one would fly it.

Reality is 10,000+ of them have been sold. So yes, it has been proven that the "princess and the pea" whining is an a.net exclusive and customers haven't cared about the aircraft and still don't.

lightsaber wrote:
Customers on Priceline would literally buy tickets on anything. If the opinions of FR mattered here, they would have been out of business years ago. Same with NK and...

Lightsaber


Bingo! FR and NK are airlines that everyone complains about and then books their next vacation on.
Militant Centrist
Let's all just use some common sense
 
phxa340
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:13 pm

Vicenza wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Of course Boeing is pushing, promoting, looking for opportunities. But reality is brutal, they are mainly fighting to prevent further order cancellations.

Lots of parked aircraft looking for new users, Airbus having slots, A220/A321's doesn't help at all.

+ Airlines & their passengers don't seem eager to take MAX's.


You keep pushing the narrative that passengers aren’t eager but it’s been proven over and over again that the vast majority of passengers aren’t aware of the aircraft that they are on and those that are actually feel safer due to the rigourous recertification. But keep pushing your Airbus is the only solution to everything idea ...


Nothing of the sort has been 'proven', other than the standard a.net narrative that seemingly everyone but a.net members knows nothing about aircraft.


Yes it has been, why do you think airline loyalty programs exist ? It’s because customers are extremely price sensitive when it comes to airfare and will choose the airline with the lowest fare (for most VFR passengers, for business passengers - rest assured they will fly on a MAX if it gets them their precious elite status and miles). I’m done arguing about this though.
 
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Revelation
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:29 pm

RobK wrote:
Pretty much every airline in the world is hanging on by a thread right now. No-one is ordering new planes and I don't see that changing for at least a few years with all this talk of lockdowns and restrictions being in place for years (here in the UK at least). Where are people going to be flying to on all this new metal? The hospitality industry is finished and travel restrictions/quarantines galore.

As someone said up thread, Boeing will have to give them away.

I agree 100%. The last thing any of these airlines need any time soon is more aircraft.

It's funny how most of a.net still hasn't internalized what COVID-19 is doing to the industry, and the worst is yet to come because the aid has largely stopped.

As for WN buying more MAXes, from our COVID-19 news thread:

jayunited wrote:
WN seeks historic cuts from its Unions to avoid layoffs early next year.

"In a video message to staff on Monday, CEO Gary Kelly said the “time has arrived” for Southwest to begin discussions with its labor unions regarding concessions. The cuts are needed to forestall what are expected to be “billions” of dollars in quarterly losses until a COVID-19 vaccine is widely available."

https://thepointsguy.com/news/southwest ... in-losses/

It's silly to think that WN will get cuts from their unions then announce the purchase of a big batch of MAXes.

I'd say the odds of one of the US6 going bankrupt are higher than any one of them ordering more MAXes in the next 2 years.

If an airline wants cheap MAXes, their best bet is to wait for AA to dump them in BK, IMO.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
micstatic
Posts: 842
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2001 10:07 pm

Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:40 pm

Antarius wrote:
Vicenza wrote:
phxa340 wrote:


If you listen to a.net, the 737 is a old outdated dog that has cramped seating and is so uncomfortable that no one would fly it.

Reality is 10,000+ of them have been sold. So yes, it has been proven that the "princess and the pea" whining is an a.net exclusive and customers haven't cared about the aircraft and still don't.


they absolutely are uncomfortable. They don't sell however because of comfort. I don't disagree most passengers have no idea what they are flying. But I'm a platinum on delta and far prefer the shoulder width on airbus narrowbodies.
 
phxa340
Posts: 1143
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2012 4:07 am

Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:49 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
micstatic wrote:
Antarius wrote:
Vicenza wrote:


they absolutely are uncomfortable. They don't sell however because of comfort. I don't disagree most passengers have no idea what they are flying. But I'm a platinum on delta and far prefer the shoulder width on airbus narrowbodies.


This again :) ? Give me an AS 737 over an NK A320 ... see what I did there ?

Don’t disagree with you about DL but for me it’s the AVOD and elevated experience.
 
jagraham
Posts: 1200
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:52 pm

keesje wrote:
raylee67 wrote:
Boeing definitely would want to be able to announce a big order from an established and respected airline at the same time MAX re-certification announcement is made.

Delta would be top-of-the-list in Boeing's mind. And Delta CEO has also said that he would consider MAX. See below:
https://www.reuters.com/article/boeing- ... SKBN26M5JK
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/delta-ceo ... g-737-max/

There are some airlines who have 737NG or A320ceo but have not ordered MAX or neo as replacements yet too. May be Boeing will try to give them a really good price and sweet deal. E.g.
JAL has 49 737-800, no MAX/neo order
KLM has 52 737-700/-800/-900, no MAX/neo order although the smaller -700 may be replaced partially by E2


Delta, your link:
Its $14.2 billion in commitments as of June 30 are primarily for Airbus jets. Battling the pandemic, Delta has parked jets and Chief Executive Ed Bastian said in July he was seeking to minimize deliveries over the next two years and did not intend to spend cash on aircraft “for some period of time.”


The CBS link is Nov 2019, pre Covid..

If I were Bastian, I would pull forward A321LR/XLR's for keeping longer routes open / be the first to reopen with a low cost base.
Preventing Jetblue, AA and United from sneaking in. What will the rest value be of a MAX in 2040?


DL has enough international (WL) 757s to keep their longer routes open at 5 - 6 per week. Not to mention that the XLR is not yet available.
Same with UA. It's probably a bigger issue with AA but they have ordered XLRs.
 
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FLALEFTY
Posts: 1059
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:33 am

Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:54 pm

Dublinspotter wrote:
Good afternoon all,

Just a point, (or rather a question) on FR and the MAX. The carrier was struggling a few months ago and was pleading to various governments for assistance to stay operational. I am no business owner, but surely it would be wiser for the airlines in general to stabilise their outgoings first by generating an income, and any profits should be stored to weather a future rainy day/season. I feel its unreasonable to plead poverty and accept government and taxpayers assistance, only to go out on a shopping spree when so many aircraft are stored already. It is a major waste of materials, existing asset potential, and hypocritical.

(https://www.businesstraveller.com/featu ... a-bailout/)

Again, I am no business expert, its just an observation!

Regards,
Dublinspotter


Another fact is that Ryanair relied on an active secondary market to move on their B738's before they hit HVM, which is how they were able to keep churning in new aircraft. The secondary market for used airliners has completely dried up for the near term.
 
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keesje
Posts: 14505
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:55 pm

Why would Boeing and airlines even rebrand the 737 MAX if nobody really cares and no less tickets will be sold? Amazing stuff..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
MEA-707
Posts: 3872
Joined: Mon Nov 15, 1999 4:51 am

Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:02 pm

A dark horse which isn't mentioned yet: Air France. They have A220s on order to replace the A318/19s but they haven't ordered the A320NEO yet and still need something for their biggest and longer narrowbody routes. Unlikely to happen ! but I do see KLM ánd Transavia - Netherlands and - France go MAX so that would still meen 150 aircraft in the long term. Apart from KL/AF most airlines with fleets of over 30 x 737 and/or A-320ceo have decided their future fleet, only three major operators I can find without orders are Alitalia, Allegiant and Jet2 but they might not be strong enough for an order or want to wait til 2nd hand examples are available.
nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
 
Opus99
Topic Author
Posts: 2340
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:03 pm

With Ryanair. I believe if something closes it will be the MAX 10 and the deal will be structured in such a way that Ryanair uses its credits it Boeing to close the deal. Rather than cash up front or something along those lines. Anything that Allows Boeing to say the max secured 200 firm orders from Ryanair in the middle of a pandemic.

As for US airlines. I can’t say for sure. This time is tricky for them.

I also appreciate the fact that airlines are trying to survive and Covid crisis is deep but they are not picking up the plane tomorrow. The reality is that replacements are still needed corona or no corona. The question is when do you need it. If you have the cash and you’re in a comfortable position this is the best deal you’re ever going to get. Crisis price slammed with PR stunt price for A320NEO performance? I mean... this is a brand new aircraft that you’re getting for life at rock bottom prices. Bringing in these aircraft will even reduce your cash operating costs meaning low risk, easier to turn a profit with low demands. Really this will depend on the outlook the airline wants to take.

At the same time I think airlines are trying to strike a balance between short term survival and long term planning. You don’t want to lean too much or one or the other because it will stress your business at different times. But some might argue too much focus on long term will result in no business left to stress
 
Antarius
Posts: 3436
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:27 pm

Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:29 pm

keesje wrote:
Why would Boeing and airlines even rebrand the 737 MAX if nobody really cares and no less tickets will be sold? Amazing stuff..


Because the word MAX is tainted. So you rebrand. Most people can't tell an a320 from a 737, so rebranding a MAX to a 737-8 will drop into the bucket of "generic 3-3 airplane".
Militant Centrist
Let's all just use some common sense
 
Antarius
Posts: 3436
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:27 pm

Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:34 pm

micstatic wrote:
Antarius wrote:
Vicenza wrote:


they absolutely are uncomfortable. They don't sell however because of comfort. I don't disagree most passengers have no idea what they are flying. But I'm a platinum on delta and far prefer the shoulder width on airbus narrowbodies.


I'm not disputing that some people pick aircraft based on preference. I certainly do, but I also take in to account the seat quality etc.

However the majority don't care. They get on a plane and try to get the best seat. Whether that aircraft is a 737, 757, a320, MD90 is largely irrelevant; if they have a good seat and the aircraft looks clean, people can't tell the difference. As a DL Plat, you've likely encountered someone commenting on a brand new plane, when it is a 20 year old a320 with a nice interior.

If the 737 was so miserable, the 9 across 787 so uncomfortable etc. - how does that explain the order book?
Militant Centrist
Let's all just use some common sense
 
WayexTDI
Posts: 2378
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:38 pm

Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:50 pm

Antarius wrote:
keesje wrote:
Why would Boeing and airlines even rebrand the 737 MAX if nobody really cares and no less tickets will be sold? Amazing stuff..


Because the word MAX is tainted. So you rebrand. Most people can't tell an a320 from a 737, so rebranding a MAX to a 737-8 will drop into the bucket of "generic 3-3 airplane".

There's no need to rebrand if flyers don't care what plane they step into.
Note that I said CARE and not KNOW; important difference.

If pax didn't care they flew on a MAX, no one would bother rebranding the plane; since it is being rebranded shows that Boeing and airlines have doubts about whether pax will willingly step into a MAX after RTS.
 
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seahawk
Posts: 10331
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Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:09 pm

I do not even see the interest for Boeing to get a large order. PR? Everybody in the industry has bigger problems than PR at the moment. And if you look at it, I see a very small margin for common interests between Boeing and airlines.

- Boeing probably wants to get rid of the white tails and open production slots in the short term, to reduce it´s exposure from over producing at the moment
- Airlines probably do not want additional new planes in 2021 and 2022 and would probably only be looking at delivery slots midterm

Airlines would only be interested at a very low price, but Boeing might not be that interested in granting that for deliveries after 2024.

And in the end if Boeing does grant an airline fire sale prices for delivery slots after 2024, they can forget any bigger airline willing to pay more in the next 3 years.
 
chiad
Posts: 1371
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 4:24 pm

Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:35 pm

These whitetails are available for quick delivery. What airline wants to buy them and then pay for indefinite parking?
Conserve cash and dump capacity is what it's all about now.
Delta is in discussion with Airbus about deferring deliveries. Do you think Airbus will go ahead with that if Delta is buying Boeings?
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 9854
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:15 pm

Reuters reports three sources have confirmed discussions between Boeing and ALK on new orders.

Boeing Co BA.N is in discussions to sell 737 MAX jets to Alaska Airlines once the plane returns to service following a lengthy grounding, three people familiar with the matter said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... 6T3A4?il=0
 
Opus99
Topic Author
Posts: 2340
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: MAX Relaunch Orders

Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:31 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Reuters reports three sources have confirmed discussions between Boeing and ALK on new orders.

Boeing Co BA.N is in discussions to sell 737 MAX jets to Alaska Airlines once the plane returns to service following a lengthy grounding, three people familiar with the matter said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... 6T3A4?il=0

Let’s see if they bite!

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