Hello Bloggers,
My name is Rudy Besikof.
Obviously, a new administration will be coming in and taking over the COVID response. One of the less mentioned aspects of the COVID response is travel restrictions. How do you think a Biden administration would deal with travel restrictions going forward (right now there are bans on foreign nationals from China, Iran, Europe, and Brazil)?

The million dollar question is what happens with Cuba ? Does Biden suspend the Trump rules and go back to the more liberal Obama regulations or does he keep the current Trump restrictions in place so as to court the Cubans in Dade County where he performed so poorly 2 weeks ago ?

The Biden team has already shown a stronger focus on infection control than the outgoing administration.

Every nation that has successfully turned back a major COVID outbreak has implemented lockdowns of some description. Island nations able to close borders and implement madatory quarantine have been the most successful.

I would expect a Biden adminstration will act to the limits of its powers to maintain, and (if it can) strengthen current travel restrictions. However, the reality of the US situation is that COVID infection is more likely to spread from the USA, rather than to the USA via international travel.

I suspect the Administration will seek to reduce the restrictions when it is safe to do so and they will follow the recommendations of their COVID-19 advisors. Contrary to popular belief, nobody with any significant policy authority wants to live in a perpetual lockdown. I predict that with the release of the vaccines, we will see a rapid decline in new cases. I would predict that by next summer, we will see most of the restrictions gone, but it is possible that the US/EU/UK may require proof of immunization to enter.

DocLightning wrote:

I suspect the Administration will seek to reduce the restrictions when it is safe to do so and they will follow the recommendations of their COVID-19 advisors. Contrary to popular belief, nobody with any significant policy authority wants to live in a perpetual lockdown. I predict that with the release of the vaccines, we will see a rapid decline in new cases. I would predict that by next summer, we will see most of the restrictions gone, but it is possible that the US/EU/UK may require proof of immunization to enter.

I would agree with the U.K. Now that the Great Britain is using testing instead of quarantine for countries with widespread coronavirus outbreaks, it seems like they would be a country that would require vaccination once it comes out.

If anything, I see a phased opening.

Phase 1 would involve with opening to one or few reciprocal countries to trial flights (like the trial some airlines are doing now but at an official level involve with both departing and arriving countries administration). Numbers are limited and certain visa types are opening up. Stringent testing measures will be in place, with possible arriving quarantine.

Phase 2 would involve with the same trail countries but with less testing and no quarantine.

Phase 3 would be expansion of the program to a dozen or 20-odd trusted countries.

Phase 4 would be abolish the testing and quarantine measure but go for vaccine certification process, and in the same time opening to most of the other countries.

Phase 5 would be totally opening up by cancel all entry requirements that related to Covid.

It may jump phase 1 and phase 3, by not introducing a trail countries. But I don't see Biden opening up totally without conditions attached. I think even with a three phases opening (test and quarantine - vaccine certification - total opening up), the whole process may not start until end of January, and it won't go to vaccine certification until April. The total opening up may not happen until August or September. I sincerely hope it would be sooner. But I know regardless what people want politician to do, politician will listen to his advisors only.

DocLightning wrote:

I would predict that by next summer, we will see most of the restrictions gone,

Doc, I know you're a physician, but I fear that your timeline is extremely optimistic. To get to a point to where most restrictions are gone, as you say it will be guided by experts, and specifically by the number of cases. I suspect those aren't going to be appreciably down by next summer.

The problem is vaccine distribution.

As you know, a substantial amount of the population (if not the majority) will need to be vaccinated and, we are yet to see an effective vaccine that can be distributed outside of the very limited "cold chain", eg cryogenic logistics. Add the fact that relatively few facilities in the US possess the infrastructure to store said vaccines, they will have limited capacities, and limited geographic reach to the population.

Until a vaccine is developed that is stable enough to remain effective at higher temperatures, I think we're in for a much longer haul in the US,

IMHO, my answer to OP's question of how travel restrictions will change under a Biden administration: "Not much at all. At least not for at least a year, if not longer."

I hold out hope that I'm wrong!

rjsampson wrote:

As you know, a substantial amount of the population (if not the majority) will need to be vaccinated and, we are yet to see an effective vaccine that can be distributed outside of the very limited "cold chain", eg cryogenic logistics. Add the fact that relatively few facilities in the US possess the infrastructure to store said vaccines, they will have limited capacities, and limited geographic reach to the population.

The Moderna candidate requires -20°C. Assuming that their result are as good as Pfizer's, and I suspect they will be, almost every doctor's office has a -20°C freezer. Your freezer in your kitchen holds that temperature. Moreover, Pfizer is researching how long their product will last at -20°C and I'd be shocked if it's not least a few months.

Beyond that, Novovax just released their preclinical data and their candidate appears to offer sterilizing immunity in nonhuman primates when challenged at viral innocula within a reasonable order of magnitude of a typical infection. I don't think that the remainder are doomed to do what AZ/Oxford's candidate did (and there is yet hope in theirs; I suspect that an aerosolized version might work far better).

A month ago, if you had told me that not one but two candidates would boast ~95% vaccine efficacy, I would have called you a hopeless optimist. But here we are. We've done the hard part. Figuring out the cold chain is mere logistics. In the last six months, we completely rearranged our society and our customs out of necessity. I think that -70°C cold chains are merely some deck chairs to rearrange. I predict that by July 4, most anyone in the USA who wants a dose of a vaccine will have access to one.

I know a lot of us are big fans of Wendover Productions. In addition to being an AvGeek: He's pretty spot on in his videos. He recently did one of vaccine logistics. Have a look at this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byW1GExQB84

What do you guys think?

Sounds pretty cocnerning... although the video is made very laborious. It's an very honest portrait of the problems we'll face next year. Thanks for this link.

Hey all,

Currently I am seeing cruises available out of Fort Lauderdale starting in January 2021 (cruises.com). Any opinions as to whether or not this is going to happen in January or will there be further delays?

dfwjim1 wrote:

Hey all,

Currently I am seeing cruises available out of Fort Lauderdale starting in January 2021 (cruises.com). Any opinions as to whether or not this is going to happen in January or will there be further delays?

You do you, but the thought of getting on a cruise entirely of one's own volition this January is utterly mind-boggling to me. Those things are floating petri dishes in the best of times. But now...?

A nice hotel/condo on the beach + food delivery seems like a not-bad way to spend one's vacation in January.

alo2yyz wrote:

dfwjim1 wrote:

Hey all,

Currently I am seeing cruises available out of Fort Lauderdale starting in January 2021 (cruises.com). Any opinions as to whether or not this is going to happen in January or will there be further delays?

You do you, but the thought of getting on a cruise entirely of one's own volition this January is utterly mind-boggling to me. Those things are floating petri dishes in the best of times. But now...?

A nice hotel/condo on the beach + food delivery seems like a not-bad way to spend one's vacation in January.[/quo

I am not looking to go on a cruise myself but living in Fort Lauderdale I have firsthand experience as to what a big contributor cruises are to the local economy.

chonetsao wrote:

If anything, I see a phased opening.

Phase 1 would involve with opening to one or few reciprocal countries to trial flights

It may come as a surprise to you, but there have been, and are, quite a few flights across the Atlantic carrying pax. Every day. The demand is however very low as only necessary travel is permitted.
As restrictions ease, demand may not increase for a while anyway ...

Biden's press secretary just announced that "... we plan to strengthen public health measures around international travel in order to further mitigate the spread of COVID-19" (https://onemileatatime.com/trump-travel ... ly-to-end/). She said this in response to the Trump administration proposing to ax the Europe travel ban. Biden has repeatedly say he will mandate masks on airplanes and governmental buildings. What additional steps could the incoming administration take?

I think every airline in the US already requires mask to be worn while on board, people are getting removed from the aircraft and/or added to the no-fly list for not complying. Masks are already required in almost every building I have been in over the past 9 months. So not sure what else will be thought of to be implemented in the US.

I can see a vaccination requirement plus a negative test on intl flights.

Sorry to revive this thread. But recently there are talks in private draws my attention, I thought to share. Again it is personal opinion from a private talk, so it means nothing. Take the contents with a pinch of salt. I thought the idea was quite plausible thus decided to share.

So it is semi-confirmed that Biden's first official overseas trip would be 11-13 June G7 Summit in Cornwall, UK. Although rumour saying he may make a stop in Ireland before UK to make Ireland the official first stop, it is likely some arrangement might be made before hand to enable certain degree of opening up for transatlantic travel.

Considering current climate and the speed of vaccine roll out, I personally believe the opening up of travel might be earlier than June, I think it is possible for Easter opening up to one to five countries that are leading in vaccine roll out (think Israel and UK). But it is really depended on the speed of vaccine roll out in the US. I think there is a great chance Biden administration won't relax travel ban until end of March. But more visa categories may be eligible for visiting US compared with now.

After March I think the nature step is to open with conditions. I am sure everyone here would have his/her own ideas and guesses. But could it be Easter? or June G7 Summit?

Hopefully they keep the bans from the countries with rampant Covid. Does that mean no domestic flights?

My understanding is that as of Tuesday the travel ban on UK/Ireland/Schengen ends as long as the person travelling has a negative test and isolates in the US on arrival? Is this correct?

I think that Biden overturned that with one of his first Executive Orders.

chonetsao wrote:

Sorry to revive this thread. But recently there are talks in private draws my attention, I thought to share. Again it is personal opinion from a private talk, so it means nothing. Take the contents with a pinch of salt. I thought the idea was quite plausible thus decided to share.

So it is semi-confirmed that Biden's first official overseas trip would be 11-13 June G7 Summit in Cornwall, UK. Although rumour saying he may make a stop in Ireland before UK to make Ireland the official first stop, it is likely some arrangement might be made before hand to enable certain degree of opening up for transatlantic travel.

Considering current climate and the speed of vaccine roll out, I personally believe the opening up of travel might be earlier than June, I think it is possible for Easter opening up to one to five countries that are leading in vaccine roll out (think Israel and UK). But it is really depended on the speed of vaccine roll out in the US. I think there is a great chance Biden administration won't relax travel ban until end of March. But more visa categories may be eligible for visiting US compared with now.

After March I think the nature step is to open with conditions. I am sure everyone here would have his/her own ideas and guesses. But could it be Easter? or June G7 Summit?

I'm confused. The President does not travel commercial and is exempt from travel restrictions for obvious reasons, so what does the G7 Summit or a state visit to Ireland have to do with opening up transatlantic travel?

In a smart move, on Monday expected Biden will reimpose the original Trump travel restrictions on nearly all non-U.S. travelers who have been in Brazil, the United Kingdom, Ireland and 26 countries in Europe, plus add additional countries to list such as South Africa.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN29T0P6