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UA857
Topic Author
Posts: 707
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:41 am

If UA had not merged with CO...

Thu Dec 10, 2020 1:31 am

If UA had not merged with CO and remained as a standalone, what would their fleet, hubs and onboard product look like? It's safe to assume they would have gorged on Airbus for the domestic network, but what about paint? Assuming that only half of the fleet was in the "Rising Blue" colours at the time of the merger, would virtually the whole fleet by now be white/blue or would grey/blue have survived? As for the fleet would UA replace the 744 with the 77W or would they have gone with the A359? Would the 77As be flying domestic as they were cascaded out of international service a few years ago? Also, would Polaris exist if the merger didn't happen or would UA still be flying 3-class IPTE planes on international routes? Below is what the fleet and hubs look like if UA remained as a standalone.

Fleet:
A319
A320
A320neo
A321 replacing domestic 757-200
A321neo replacing p.s. 757-200
A350-900 replacing 747-400
777-200
777-200ER
787-8 replacing 767-300ER

Hubs:
SFO
LAX
DEN
ORD
IAD
NRT
 
jplatts
Posts: 4533
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: If UA had not merged with CO...

Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:33 pm

If the UA-CO merger hadn't happened, UA probably would still have dismantled its NRT hub but kept NRT-DEN/GUM/HNL/LAX/SFO nonstop service (similar to what UA has today at NRT except for NRT-IAH/EWR nonstop service).
 
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DocLightning
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Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

Re: If UA had not merged with CO...

Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:20 pm

If they hadn't merged with CO, then they would have merged with US. Arguably, the networks might have meshed better. L-UA had a big blank spot in the southeast and while CO helped with their IAH hub, CLT would have also been a good hub. Moreover, PHX would probably have done a lot more good for UA than anything CO brought them.

The only alternate history would have involved CO merging with NW leading to a US4, with US out in the cold, probably to eventually merge with AS/VS and/or B6.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
zrs70
Posts: 3787
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2000 4:08 am

Re: If UA had not merged with CO...

Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:58 pm

If UA hadn’t merged with CO, there very well might not be a UA or a CO today.
21 year airliners.net vet! 2000-2021
 
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TWA772LR
Posts: 7652
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:12 am

Re: If UA had not merged with CO...

Fri Dec 18, 2020 5:35 am

If UA/CO didn't happen, US/UA and AA/CO would have. The first would have been a success, the second would not have been as much. No mountain time hub (I don't count PHX as mountain), DOJ would've forced them to divest much of Texas, and a fledgling TPAC hub in LAX (compared to SFO and SEA, unless AA/CO gobbled up AS).

UA/US would be more Airbus reliant, and I think by today that the 756 would be gone in favor of A321neo and A330. A350 would be a shoe in and pmUAs 787 order would've been dropped. However that UA would've lacked a real Latin gateway which is way more important than an intra-SE US hub, as well as a NYC hub, not trivial for a US3 airline in any scenario.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
uadc8contrail
Posts: 1669
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:23 am

Re: If UA had not merged with CO...

Fri Dec 25, 2020 7:03 am

if UA/CO didnt happen..UA would still be around....UA would have been USDBAUA instead of the current CODBAUA as tilton would have let anyone take over as long as he got his exit check, with US it would have been a better fit with the airbus and i feel both sides of the US/UA merger employees would have meshed better as both sides had been mentally beat down where the CO crowd were beating there chests about how great they were and still ranting about uncle Gordon even though UG had dropped the mike and left the building long before the merger. who knows...maybe Kirby could have ascended to the top dog quicker had UA merged with US but he was to busy counting cards at the black table to really push Doug to make the deal
Bus Driver
 
Max Q
Posts: 8984
Joined: Wed May 09, 2001 12:40 pm

Re: If UA had not merged with CO...

Fri Dec 25, 2020 9:51 am

As legacy Continental I was never too enthusiast about merging with anyone


But in the end it turned out to be the best strategic move in the history of the airline biz, next to UA purchasing PAA’s pacific division


Two great airlines complemented each other with the best hub, route system and employees, and for the most part led by pretty good management these days



CO and UA were meant to be, ironic as their ancestors were created by the same person
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.


GGg
 
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TWA772LR
Posts: 7652
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:12 am

Re: If UA had not merged with CO...

Fri Dec 25, 2020 5:59 pm

Max Q wrote:
As legacy Continental I was never too enthusiast about merging with anyone


But in the end it turned out to be the best strategic move in the history of the airline biz, next to UA purchasing PAA’s pacific division


Two great airlines complemented each other with the best hub, route system and employees, and for the most part led by pretty good management these days



CO and UA were meant to be, ironic as their ancestors were created by the same person

My parents were CO so it was a bitter pill to swallow for me too. But as someone who jumped from the broken heart to the globe I feel like I've come back home.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
UA444
Posts: 3090
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:03 am

Re: If UA had not merged with CO...

Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:54 am

Would’ve merged with US. CO came knocking on the door when news leaked UA and US restarted merger talks.
 
leftcoast8
Posts: 266
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2016 12:59 am

Re: If UA had not merged with CO...

Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:52 am

I wonder if COless!UA would have been able to support Middle East/India connections given their booming economies. From ORD, IAD, SFO, LAX, possibly BOS and SEA as well. Pre 9/11, the only service to that part of the world was by CO (EWR-DEL/BOM with the 772 aka the first nail in the 747's coffin) or DL (JFK-CAI-DXB on an MD-11).

Would it have been possible to set up a base on the Persian Gulf, in a U.S.-friendly country (KWI, DXB, BAH), and leverage fifth-freedom connections a la NRT? United had IAD-DXB-DOH and IAD-KWI-BAH, both using 772s, before the merger.
 
DTWLAX
Posts: 1196
Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2009 4:19 pm

Re: If UA had not merged with CO...

Thu Dec 31, 2020 2:47 am

leftcoast8 wrote:
Pre 9/11, the only service to that part of the world was by CO (EWR-DEL/BOM with the 772 aka the first nail in the 747's coffin) or DL (JFK-CAI-DXB on an MD-11).


I don't think CO flew EWR-BOM/DEL pre 9/11. The nonstop EWR-India routes started around 2005/2006.
 
leftcoast8
Posts: 266
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2016 12:59 am

Re: If UA had not merged with CO...

Sun Jan 03, 2021 12:10 am

DTWLAX wrote:
I don't think CO flew EWR-BOM/DEL pre 9/11. The nonstop EWR-India routes started around 2005/2006.


You're right. I mixed it up with CO98/99 EWR-HKG, which launched six months before 9/11. 7000nm+, definitively the longest 777-200ER route. It was a huge vote of confidence for the first-gen GE90 and for the high-bypass turbofan revolution in general, and that, combined with skyrocketing fuel prices in the post-9/11 fallout, was definitely one the first nails in the quadjet coffin.

O/T but let's say the 2002 US-UAE open skies agreement did not exist, and the FAA refused to give EK unlimited rights, like Canada did. (Obviously this is an absurd premise, but just roll with it.) Which bilateral rights would EK get, and what routes would the UAE grant to UA and CO?

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