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MLIAA
Topic Author
Posts: 208
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 11:08 pm

Future African Opportunities for Airlines

Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:30 am

Africa and, more specifically sub-Saharan Africa, is expected to double in population by 2050, with nations like Nigeria leading the charge.

It seems like there will be a lot of new demand for flying inside Africa but also to Asia, Europe, and the Americas.

What will be the strongest hubs or players in these new markets? It seems like most Africa-Asia flying would still go through the Middle East as it does now. But as Africa develops, it seems like geography would come to the aid of airlines like Alitalia and Iberia, Southern European carriers that could capitalize on the placement of Rome and Madrid.

From Sub-Saharan Africa to the US, would it be better to jump off from the northeast a la PHL or EWR or from the southeast from the likes of ATL & MIA?
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AF022
Posts: 1880
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2003 10:41 pm

Re: Future African Opportunities for Airlines

Thu Mar 04, 2021 3:21 pm

MLIAA wrote:
Africa and, more specifically sub-Saharan Africa, is expected to double in population by 2050, with nations like Nigeria leading the charge.

It seems like there will be a lot of new demand for flying inside Africa but also to Asia, Europe, and the Americas.

What will be the strongest hubs or players in these new markets? It seems like most Africa-Asia flying would still go through the Middle East as it does now. But as Africa develops, it seems like geography would come to the aid of airlines like Alitalia and Iberia, Southern European carriers that could capitalize on the placement of Rome and Madrid.

From Sub-Saharan Africa to the US, would it be better to jump off from the northeast a la PHL or EWR or from the southeast from the likes of ATL & MIA?


Doesn't most Africa-Asia traffic go through Addis?
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 9284
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Future African Opportunities for Airlines

Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:13 pm

MLIAA wrote:
Africa and, more specifically sub-Saharan Africa, is expected to double in population by 2050, with nations like Nigeria leading the charge.

It seems like there will be a lot of new demand for flying inside Africa but also to Asia, Europe, and the Americas.


Why do you assume that population (or population growth) drives demand? Outside of some very specific industrial development drivers, it's rising incomes, and for developing nations, people with incomes rising from poverty into middle incomes such that they can aspire to air travel, that build air demand.
 
jmc1975
Posts: 3100
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2000 10:57 am

Re: Future African Opportunities for Airlines

Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:39 pm

AF022 wrote:
MLIAA wrote:
Africa and, more specifically sub-Saharan Africa, is expected to double in population by 2050, with nations like Nigeria leading the charge.

It seems like there will be a lot of new demand for flying inside Africa but also to Asia, Europe, and the Americas.

What will be the strongest hubs or players in these new markets? It seems like most Africa-Asia flying would still go through the Middle East as it does now. But as Africa develops, it seems like geography would come to the aid of airlines like Alitalia and Iberia, Southern European carriers that could capitalize on the placement of Rome and Madrid.

From Sub-Saharan Africa to the US, would it be better to jump off from the northeast a la PHL or EWR or from the southeast from the likes of ATL & MIA?


Doesn't most Africa-Asia traffic go through Addis?

Or DXB, AUH, DOH
.......
 
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Boeing757100
Posts: 539
Joined: Wed May 06, 2020 10:09 pm

Re: Future African Opportunities for Airlines

Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:39 pm

I agree, the Africa market has grown before COVID, but other than Cape Town, Johannesburg, Lagos, Accra, and a select few others, demand is highly seasonal. And even for places like Cairo, Casablanca, and Dakar, it is mostly tourist demand rather than business demand. That said, I think Pan Am did fly to FIH at one point, don't understand why exactly...
Boeing is re-engining the 707 tonight, with Shinkai as the CEO and FLAIRPORT as the CFO. He has the 757 tooling in giant snowglobe that tracks flights.
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JFKIceman
Posts: 41
Joined: Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:00 pm

Re: Future African Opportunities for Airlines

Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:45 pm

Ethiopian Airlines seems to be growing a good network out of Lome, Togo, using Asky. Even though the complaint numbers are through the roof it still gets people to and from. Huge connecting hub for ET508/509 to and from KEWR
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 7394
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Future African Opportunities for Airlines

Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:33 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
I agree, the Africa market has grown before COVID, but other than Cape Town, Johannesburg, Lagos, Accra, and a select few others, demand is highly seasonal. And even for places like Cairo, Casablanca, and Dakar, it is mostly tourist demand rather than business demand. That said, I think Pan Am did fly to FIH at one point, don't understand why exactly...


PAA also flew to lots of African countries at one time -Liberia, was common along with Kenya, ZAR, Senegal.
 
johns624
Posts: 3456
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:09 pm

Re: Future African Opportunities for Airlines

Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:08 pm

Another problem might be that many African countries are well down on the list of Covid vaccinations.
 
bfitzflyer
Posts: 491
Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:02 am

Re: Future African Opportunities for Airlines

Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:24 am

When the oil industry picks up there could be some traffic in and out of Luanda
 
emre787
Posts: 122
Joined: Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:59 pm

Re: Future African Opportunities for Airlines

Tue Mar 16, 2021 11:12 am

jmc1975 wrote:
AF022 wrote:
MLIAA wrote:
Africa and, more specifically sub-Saharan Africa, is expected to double in population by 2050, with nations like Nigeria leading the charge.

It seems like there will be a lot of new demand for flying inside Africa but also to Asia, Europe, and the Americas.

What will be the strongest hubs or players in these new markets? It seems like most Africa-Asia flying would still go through the Middle East as it does now. But as Africa develops, it seems like geography would come to the aid of airlines like Alitalia and Iberia, Southern European carriers that could capitalize on the placement of Rome and Madrid.

From Sub-Saharan Africa to the US, would it be better to jump off from the northeast a la PHL or EWR or from the southeast from the likes of ATL & MIA?


Doesn't most Africa-Asia traffic go through Addis?

Or DXB, AUH, DOH


And IST for sure with TK having so many African destinations

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