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UA857
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Should United order the 777-9 and A350ULR?

Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:40 am

Hey guys, I just thought of a proposal where UA could order 10 779s and convert 12 of 45 A350 orders into the ULR variant. Here is the proposed plan below:

777-9: Order: 10 aircraft. Entry Into Service Date: 2027 Reason to order: To allow UA to remain competitive with competitors such as NH and CX (both of which have the 779 on order) as the 77W is considered as "old" technology and will soon be outdated when the 779 arrives even though UA's are still brand new. The 779s will be in a Premium-heavy layout consisting of 70 Polaris seats, 24 Premium Plus seats, 62 Economy plus seats, and 204 Economy seats with a total capacity of 360 passengers 10 more than the 77W does and will be based out of EWR and be used on EWR-NRT/PEK/PVG/HKG/TLV/DEL/BOM as NYC-Asia requires the 779s range and capacity. As for the 77Ws they will strictly be concentrated out of SFO and be used on SFO-NRT/ICN/PEK/PVG/HKG/TPE/SYD/AKL/LHR/FRA/TLV as most of these are former 744 routes.
A350ULR: Order: 12 aircraft (either the -900 or -1000 variant). Entry Into Service Date: 2027 Reason to order: due to payload limitations with the 789 the A350ULR will be perfect for ULH routes such as SFO-SIN/DEL and ORD-DEL as well as potential routes like SFO-BOM, ORD-BOM, ORD-SIN, and EWR-SIN as well as hot and high conditions like EWR-JNB. I suggest that UA orders the A35J as 22 77Ws + 10 779s + 12 A35Js make up for the capacity that UA once had on their fleet of 44 744s.

In conclusion, I believe that the 779/A359/A35J will make a perfect contribution to the UA fleet if they want to operate a diverse fleet once the pandemic is over.

Note: This post was inspired by this video made by Aviation YouTuber Coby Explanes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMYWoJBYNA8. Please don't take this thread seriously or delete it. OK?
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Should United order the 777-9 and A350ULR?

Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:15 pm

Too many subfleets. I think a cleaner scenario would be to replace the 77E/W fleets with the 45 A359s and 30 779s. UA also does considerably well in cargo so the ULH version wouldn't be very desirable. ULH could be handled by the 789 and 779.

Addition: I just watched the video. I'm on the same page with the maker that it'll be nice to see United take some 777X, but UA has been connecting dots from more hubs which negates the need for a larger fleet of the big 779. The market has called for flexibility and more travel options, which means the US3 will have even less of a reliability on VLAs by connecting their 10+ hubs with 787s and A359s at greater overall frequency from hubs to overseas.
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UA857
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Re: Should United order the 777-9 and A350ULR?

Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:10 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
Too many subfleets. I think a cleaner scenario would be to replace the 77E/W fleets with the 45 A359s and 30 779s. UA also does considerably well in cargo so the ULH version wouldn't be very desirable. ULH could be handled by the 789 and 779.

Addition: I just watched the video. I'm on the same page with the maker that it'll be nice to see United take some 777X, but UA has been connecting dots from more hubs which negates the need for a larger fleet of the big 779. The market has called for flexibility and more travel options, which means the US3 will have even less of a reliability on VLAs by connecting their 10+ hubs with 787s and A359s at greater overall frequency from hubs to overseas.


Too many subfleets? I don't think a future UA widebody fleet consisting of A359/A35J/77W/779/788/789/78J/NMA would be considered as too much. The 763 fleet will be replaced by NMA and the 77G/77E could be replaced by a mix of 78Js for domestic/Hawaii service and A359 for int'l service. Also the 779 maximum range is 7,670 nmi so it can't really do ULH routes without a major restriction on Payload. I can see the 779 doing EWR-Asia while the A359ULR or A35J can do the ULH routes.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Should United order the 777-9 and A350ULR?

Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:34 pm

UA857 wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
Too many subfleets. I think a cleaner scenario would be to replace the 77E/W fleets with the 45 A359s and 30 779s. UA also does considerably well in cargo so the ULH version wouldn't be very desirable. ULH could be handled by the 789 and 779.

Addition: I just watched the video. I'm on the same page with the maker that it'll be nice to see United take some 777X, but UA has been connecting dots from more hubs which negates the need for a larger fleet of the big 779. The market has called for flexibility and more travel options, which means the US3 will have even less of a reliability on VLAs by connecting their 10+ hubs with 787s and A359s at greater overall frequency from hubs to overseas.


Too many subfleets? I don't think a future UA widebody fleet consisting of A359/A35J/77W/779/788/789/78J/NMA would be considered as too much. The 763 fleet will be replaced by NMA and the 77G/77E could be replaced by a mix of 78Js for domestic/Hawaii service and A359 for int'l service. Also the 779 maximum range is 7,670 nmi so it can't really do ULH routes without a major restriction on Payload. I can see the 779 doing EWR-Asia while the A359ULR or A35J can do the ULH routes.

8 including the NMA in that scenario is way too much. Especially under Scott Kirby, United will be looking for ways to cut costs over anything even after covid. Kirby will see anything from a potential cost perspective in lieu of a potential profit perspective and for him the lowest cost will win out. Adding a whole new fleet type is a lot of costs from the aircraft itself, engines, spare parts, support, crew training, flight simulators, etc... If United doesn't take on the A350, then a blend of 789/78J and maybe the 779 will replace the 77E. I even expect the 787 to replace the 767 if Boeing doesn't go ahead with the NMA. At the end of the day, simplified fleets will be what airlines go for.
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UA857
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Re: Should United order the 777-9 and A350ULR?

Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:40 pm

Does UA have enough 77Ws to fly on SFO-NRT/ICN/PEK/PVG/HKG/TPE/SYD/AKL/LHR/FRA/TLV and EWR-NRT/PEK/PVG/HKG/TLV/DEL/BOM?
 
UA857
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Re: Should United order the 777-9 and A350ULR?

Wed Mar 17, 2021 11:10 pm

Can the standard A359 fly ORD-DEL/BOM?
 
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Lingon
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Re: Should United order the 777-9 and A350ULR?

Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:55 pm

UA857 wrote:
Can the standard A359 fly ORD-DEL/BOM?


According to gcmap it's 7000 nm ORD-BOM (some 250 nm longer than ORD-HKG) so that shouldn't be a problem.
 
emre787
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Re: Should United order the 777-9 and A350ULR?

Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:48 pm

UA857 wrote:
Does UA have enough 77Ws to fly on SFO-NRT/ICN/PEK/PVG/HKG/TPE/SYD/AKL/LHR/FRA/TLV and EWR-NRT/PEK/PVG/HKG/TLV/DEL/BOM?


Nope, my calculations say that they need at least 24 planes (without spares) to perform 1 daily flight on all the routes you mentioned. They only have 22 77Ws in their fleet.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Should United order the 777-9 and A350ULR?

Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:37 am

emre787 wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Does UA have enough 77Ws to fly on SFO-NRT/ICN/PEK/PVG/HKG/TPE/SYD/AKL/LHR/FRA/TLV and EWR-NRT/PEK/PVG/HKG/TLV/DEL/BOM?


Nope, my calculations say that they need at least 24 planes (without spares) to perform 1 daily flight on all the routes you mentioned. They only have 22 77Ws in their fleet.


Which is fine, as they would never operate all of those routes with 77Ws simultaneously (if at all). I sincerely doubt that routes like SFO-TPE and SFO-ICN will see anything larger than a 789 or 772 at United. Furthermore SFO-SYD and SFO-AKL will continue to only see 77Ws in the Northern Winter, when SFO-LHR and SFO-FRA can be easily be downgauged. In short, 22 77Ws is enough for United to operate all of the routes that require the capacity, at the time of year that they require the capacity.
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Re: Should United order the 777-9 and A350ULR?

Sat Mar 20, 2021 3:07 am

US airlines have very little use for ULR aircraft. The sheer size of the US means that there are very few places on the planet that are more than a 14-15 hour flight from our borders. If you look at a map of the regions >8,000 nmi from JFK, SFO, or MIA, you see that it basically describes a roughly triangular region almost entirely in the Indian Ocean.

So unless a US3 carrier suddenly decides that they desperately need to serve CCK nonstop from the US mainland, I just don't see the business case for an ULR plane.
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UA857
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Re: Should United order the 777-9 and A350ULR?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:40 am

When UA originally ordered the 77W back in 2015 where they going to use them to replace the 77A on international routes as the 77As now 77Gs moved to domestic?
 
UA857
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Re: Should United order the 777-9 and A350ULR?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:22 am

DocLightning wrote:
US airlines have very little use for ULR aircraft. The sheer size of the US means that there are very few places on the planet that are more than a 14-15 hour flight from our borders. If you look at a map of the regions >8,000 nmi from JFK, SFO, or MIA, you see that it basically describes a roughly triangular region almost entirely in the Indian Ocean.

So unless a US3 carrier suddenly decides that they desperately need to serve CCK nonstop from the US mainland, I just don't see the business case for an ULR plane.


Then why did DL order the 777-200LR?
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Should United order the 777-9 and A350ULR?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:14 pm

UA857 wrote:
Then why did DL order the 777-200LR?


At that time, DL was ordering more 772s. I believe that because the 77L was already on offer, Boeing basically offered them the 77L for the same price (the details are almost certainly hidden behind an NDA), which, Boeing probably hoped, would improve the resale/lease value of the model. In addition, out of JNB, which DL was committed to serving, the 77L was a far better choice. It also gave better cargo capabilities overall, although I'm not sure how much passenger airlines cared about that.
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