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N649DL
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Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:34 pm

FSDan wrote:
N649DL wrote:
CLE stayed on as a hub with UA too. Quite a few routes were upgraded from CO 737s to UA 757s before they shut it down.


That part about 757s seems entirely made up based on what I remember... In the CO days the CLE hub had a handful of daily 752s and 753s at best (mostly to IAH and EWR, with LHR and maybe LAS for a time), and UA sent some 752s there from the ORD hub. Post-merger, if anything, the hub saw fewer 757s, as UA retired a lot of their workhorses. Of course, that's all from my memory. If you have data proving otherwise or a list of routes that were upgauged, I'm happy to be corrected.


Actually, the sUA 757s filled in for the sCO 737s out of CLE so technically it was a capacity upgrade. They were on quite a few routes too: CLE-LAX/LGA/EWR/BOS/MCO/FLL etc.
 
vfw614
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Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:01 pm

When I passed through DAY some years ago it was such a quiet place that I could hardly believe that it was a Piedmont hub in the 1980s (although admittedly, never a massive one).
 
FSDan
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Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:08 pm

N649DL wrote:
FSDan wrote:
N649DL wrote:
CLE stayed on as a hub with UA too. Quite a few routes were upgraded from CO 737s to UA 757s before they shut it down.


That part about 757s seems entirely made up based on what I remember... In the CO days the CLE hub had a handful of daily 752s and 753s at best (mostly to IAH and EWR, with LHR and maybe LAS for a time), and UA sent some 752s there from the ORD hub. Post-merger, if anything, the hub saw fewer 757s, as UA retired a lot of their workhorses. Of course, that's all from my memory. If you have data proving otherwise or a list of routes that were upgauged, I'm happy to be corrected.


Actually, the sUA 757s filled in for the sCO 737s out of CLE so technically it was a capacity upgrade. They were on quite a few routes too: CLE-LAX/LGA/EWR/BOS/MCO/FLL etc.


On a regularly scheduled basis, though? And for how long? I certainly never remember seeing 757s scheduled on CLE-FLL/LGA/BOS, and not even regularly on CLE-LAX/MCO, and I checked schedules frequently. If they were on those routes, it must have been a relative flash in the pan.
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FSDan
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Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:10 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
What former hub went from hub status to the fewest flights overall? DAY? SYR? GSO?


Out of interest, how big were any of those at their peaks? I don't think any of them were still hubs in my lifetime...
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deltairlines
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Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:23 pm

CVG may no longer be a passenger hub, but it's a major hub for Amazon Prime Air now, and a lot of that infrastructure (runways namely) is thanks to the Delta CVG hub. It looked for a long time that the newest runway was going to be a giant white elephant after Delta pulled down, but now as Amazon is growing rapidly, that third runway is going to be very helpful, especially in a cargo type operation where there's a massive inbound arrival period and then a massive departure period. Three runways spaced like that can handle simultaneous departures and arrivals easily. Amazon also has an option to build a second facility between 36R and 36C if they need more space than the current (former DHL) space.

Terminal-wise, getting everyone into Terminal 3 has been a huge help. A family friend of mine is a state rep just outside of CVG and we were talking about how Terminals 1 and 2 were nothing more than glorified double-wides. Terminal 3 is probably a little too much, but it's not the worst problem to have.
 
ScottB
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Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:39 pm

Revelation wrote:
CVG to me seems to be the poster child for the inland hub that died as soon as narrow bodies had enough range to not need inland hubs. I remember waiting for plane changes in CVG and saying to myself, "What am I doing here?". There was no reason at all for me to be in Northeast Kentucky except for the hub, whereas I had enough social and business contacts in PIT and STL to justify a trip.


Actually, CVG is the poster child for why PIT failed as a hub -- the rise of the RJ. PIT was US's largest hub for decades because it was well-located for connections between the most populous parts of the U.S. -- the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest. The RJ allowed DL/OH to poach a fair bit of traffic from smaller markets like BGM, AVP, MHT, ABE, etc. without needing to use mainline aircraft which would have been difficult to fill. US was the dominant airline at pretty much every second- or third-tier airport from Pennsylvania to Maine on the strength of the PIT hub, and they got every single dollar they could out of that dominance. Of course, WN's entry into about a half-dozen high-fare airports in the Northeast also helped to hasten the demise of the PIT hub.

CVG died because the economics of 50-seat RJs were awful with oil prices north of $70/bbl. And once the merger with NWA happened, DL didn't need both hubs.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:26 pm

I appreciate the comments about the RJ's cost structure but aren't RJ's about 25% of the movements at ORD?

US companies (including airlines) thrive on buying out competitors and then shutting down duplicate facilities and consolidating supply . It saves you a boat load of money. First by paying for fewer facilities and employees. Second by increasing efficiencies by consolidating connecting passengers so load factors are higher (esp business travelers).

US airlines did not become as profitable as they were until the government allowed the consolidation by mergers or buyouts. Now the surviving major 4 airline's cost structures are high again and a new generation of formidable competition is on their tail. This will be interesting.
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    LAX772LR
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    Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

    Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:38 pm

    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    LAX772LR wrote:
    cledaybuck wrote:
    The biggest contributor was airline consolidation.

    Started long before consolidation. That only served to speed up the inevitable.

    Did it?

    Indeed it did, as now said multiple times.

    With each of the examples you've given, reality paints the exact OPPOSITE picture of what you're trying to convey. The only one that could arguably be an exception is MEM, if we're to ignore that, like STL, the latest hub failure there was only one of multiple busts.



    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    UA and CO Merge - Cleveland closes, ORD wins

    CLE's peak year was 10yrs before the CO/UA merger; after which the hub had been in steady draw-down ever since.
    By the time that the merger was announced, CO was serving 4million annual pax LESS than that it was previously via CLE, which is a more than 30% drop off the previous decade.



    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    NW and Delta Merge - CVG and MEM shut down, DTW and ATL win

    DL de-banked CVG in 2003, and began drawing it down significantly in 2005.

    By the time of the 2008 merger, CVG had already lost the majority of its international flights, and served 12million LESS passengers than its 2004/2005 high.




    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    AA buys TWA - STL gone, DFW wins

    STL's peak year was 1999, as the sole remaining domestic hub for US. We'll ignore the fact that you don't seem aware that this would've been that airport's 3rd hub build-bust cycle, and simply state that AA didn't buy TW until 2001, where even before 9/11, traffic had fallen by ----wait on it----- millions.

    Starting to see a pattern yet?



    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    US sinking into bankruptcy closes PIT hub in 2004, merges with America West in 2005. CLT Wins

    Did you even read what you yourself wrote here......?

    You just said: the hub was drawn down *before* there was a consolidation; which is the whole point of this.
    And besides, by 2004, the PIT hub was a shadow of what it was in the late '90s....serving almost 11million pax LESS than what it did back then.




    Runway765 wrote:
    Yes, absent the mergers, some of these hubs would have survived.

    Based on what? There's not enough evidence to definitively make that claim, or the opposite for that matter.

    With the exception of CLE, simply do not know how they would've dealt with everything from the fuel insanity of 2008 to the market crash of 2009; not to mention today's environment.
    I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
     
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    STT757
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    Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

    Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:14 pm

    Of CLE, PIT, CVG CLE was the closest to returning to previous traffic levels from 20 years ago. CVG and PIT will never get back to their previous levels, but prior to the pandemic CLE was within a year or two from matching previous high point.

    CLE’s ability to return to previous highs were because of two factors: CO/UA’s hub was not as big as CVG, PIT and STL. And airlines back filled more than the others.
    Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
     
    flylowhou
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    Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

    Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:29 pm

    AA/AE at SJU
     
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    FiscAutTecGarte
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    Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

    Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:51 pm

    Agree.... all of this has definitely contributed to Fly Over Country REALLY being Fly Over Country.... 20 or more years ago, everyone had a story about being stranded in these small secondary and tertiary cities. Nowadays, most have never even been to them...
    learning never stops...

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    Runway765
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    Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

    Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:47 am

    LAX772LR wrote:
    Runway765 wrote:
    Yes, absent the mergers, some of these hubs would have survived.

    Based on what? There's not enough evidence to definitively make that claim, or the opposite for that matter.

    With the exception of CLE, simply do not know how they would've dealt with everything from the fuel insanity of 2008 to the market crash of 2009; not to mention today's environment.


    If DL had not merged with NW, CVG likely would’ve remained a SLC sized hub (flight wise) for them. Perhaps that would have been the only one with a chance of survival in a different timeline.

    Though it is interesting to note Vasu Raja publicly stated AA should not have have closed STL and instead should have bulked it up.

    https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/american/130191-vasu-raja-interview.html
     
    FGITD
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    Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

    Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:52 am

    FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
    Agree.... all of this has definitely contributed to Fly Over Country REALLY being Fly Over Country.... 20 or more years ago, everyone had a story about being stranded in these small secondary and tertiary cities. Nowadays, most have never even been to them...


    It’s something that’s noticeable if you watch old movies/tv or even standup comedians, particularly with younger kids who never experienced it.

    Everyone had a joke or a story about flying from xxx to yyy and ending up in St Louis for 3 days

    Unfortunately it also tells a sad tale of how aviation can move forward without you.
    Again using STL as an example...go back a few decades and tell them in the future they won’t even have half as many total flights as TWA alone operates per day, you’d get laughed off the field.
     
    ZazuPIT
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    Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

    Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:30 am

    FSDan wrote:
    AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
    What former hub went from hub status to the fewest flights overall? DAY? SYR? GSO?


    Out of interest, how big were any of those at their peaks? I don't think any of them were still hubs in my lifetime...


    Pretty sure none ever got over 100 flight per day. I think DAY got close, maybe high 80s?
     
    MohawkWeekend
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    Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

    Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:38 am

    LAX772LR wrote:
    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    LAX772LR wrote:
    Started long before consolidation. That only served to speed up the inevitable.

    Did it?

    Indeed it did, as now said multiple times.

    With each of the examples you've given, reality paints the exact OPPOSITE picture of what you're trying to convey. The only one that could arguably be an exception is MEM, if we're to ignore that, like STL, the latest hub failure there was only one of multiple busts.



    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    UA and CO Merge - Cleveland closes, ORD wins

    CLE's peak year was 10yrs before the CO/UA merger; after which the hub had been in steady draw-down ever since.
    By the time that the merger was announced, CO was serving 4million annual pax LESS than that it was previously via CLE, which is a more than 30% drop off the previous decade.



    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    NW and Delta Merge - CVG and MEM shut down, DTW and ATL win

    DL de-banked CVG in 2003, and began drawing it down significantly in 2005.

    By the time of the 2008 merger, CVG had already lost the majority of its international flights, and served 12million LESS passengers than its 2004/2005 high.




    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    AA buys TWA - STL gone, DFW wins

    STL's peak year was 1999, as the sole remaining domestic hub for US. We'll ignore the fact that you don't seem aware that this would've been that airport's 3rd hub build-bust cycle, and simply state that AA didn't buy TW until 2001, where even before 9/11, traffic had fallen by ----wait on it----- millions.

    Starting to see a pattern yet?



    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    US sinking into bankruptcy closes PIT hub in 2004, merges with America West in 2005. CLT Wins

    Did you even read what you yourself wrote here......?

    You just said: the hub was drawn down *before* there was a consolidation; which is the whole point of this.
    And besides, by 2004, the PIT hub was a shadow of what it was in the late '90s....serving almost 11million pax LESS than what it did back then.




    Runway765 wrote:
    Yes, absent the mergers, some of these hubs would have survived.

    Based on what? There's not enough evidence to definitively make that claim, or the opposite for that matter.

    With the exception of CLE, simply do not know how they would've dealt with everything from the fuel insanity of 2008 to the market crash of 2009; not to mention today's environment.



    Let's put it another way - If NW/CO/TWA still existed, do you believe CVG, CLE, MEM and STL would still have 100 to 150 flights a day by the DL, CO, NW and TWA respectfully ? No one really knows. Going forward it will be interesting to see how the Frontiers, Spirit, Breeze, Allegiant coupled with the COVID-19 growth of corporate aviation (and the high yield) will impact the hub structure of today
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      aemoreira1981
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      Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

      Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:38 am

      jfklganyc wrote:
      STT757 wrote:
      The top three would be CVG, PIT, STL.

      The next tier would be DFW (DL), DEN (CO), CLE (UA), MEM (DL), RDU (AA), BNA (AA), SJC (AA), MCO (DL), GSO (CO), BWI (US), DAY (US), SYR (US), MCI (EA, US), IND (US), BOS (US, AA).



      How about TWA at JFK? That was painful to watch from the Tri state area


      For all intents and purposes though, B6 effectively replaced TW (TWA) in aircraft movements. DL also grew. The biggest drop has to be PIT, and that’s self inflicted. The airport authority basically called US’ bluff and US responded by building up PHL. PIT never recovered.
       
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      knope2001
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      Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

      Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:42 am

      Pulled together some quick weekday flight counts for some of the hubs being discussed and a few counterparts from the era(s), including a few right before they were purchased or went under.

      These are not guaranteed to be the absolute peak but should be pretty close, at very lease illustrative of approximate size in their hayday.. A good amount of this is courtesy of departeflights.com. I also added a note to a few for a bit more information.

      One other thing to keep in mind -- this spans the period where "regionals" might be mostly 19-seat props for hubs in the 80's but might be mostly 50-seat RJ's by the late 90's / 00's.

      total …. mainline …. regional
      595 …....... 162 …....... 433 …....... Cincinnati Delta …....... July 2001 …....... peak mainline 219 December 1996
      537 …....... 367 …....... 170 …....... St Louis TWA …....... October 1997
      532 …....... 274 …....... 258 …....... Pittsburgh USAirways …....... July 2001 …....... peak mainline 355 May 1994
      300 …......... 95 …....... 205 …....... Cleveland Continental …....... April 2000 …....... peak mainline 128 October 1994
      289 …....... 211 …......... 78 …....... Memphis Northwest …....... January 1987 …....... modern total peak 265 (132+133) July 2001
      265 …....... 116 …....... 149 …....... Nashville American …....... April 1993 …....... peak mainline 137 April 1992
      261 …....... 155 …....... 106 …....... Baltimore USAirways …....... October 1989
      236 …....... 128 …....... 108 …....... Chicago Midway …....... October 1990
      211 …....... 121 …......... 90 …....... Raleigh American …....... December 1992 …....... peak mainline 128 June 1991
      200 …......... 93 …....... 107 …....... Kansas City Braniff …....... September 1989
      198 …....... 143 …......... 55 …....... St Louis Ozark …....... December 1985
      196 …....... 147 …......... 49 …....... Salt Lake Western …....... March 1987
      175 …....... 144 …......... 31 …....... Denver Frontier (1) …....... November 1984
      154 …......... 53 …....... 101 …....... Milwaukee Midwest …....... October 2007 …....... peak mainline 63 May 1999
      144 …......... 71 …......... 73 …....... Dayton Piedmont …....... December 1987 …....... peak mainline 81 August 1989
      138 …....... 108 …......... 30 …....... Raleigh Midway …....... June 2001
      134 …......... 60 …......... 74 …....... Kansas City Eastern …....... January 1987
      96 …........... 55 …......... 41 …....... Greensboro Continental …....... April 1995
      92 …........... 62 …......... 30 …....... Syracuse Piedmont/USAir …....... March 1988
       
      N649DL
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      Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

      Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:16 am

      FSDan wrote:
      N649DL wrote:
      FSDan wrote:

      That part about 757s seems entirely made up based on what I remember... In the CO days the CLE hub had a handful of daily 752s and 753s at best (mostly to IAH and EWR, with LHR and maybe LAS for a time), and UA sent some 752s there from the ORD hub. Post-merger, if anything, the hub saw fewer 757s, as UA retired a lot of their workhorses. Of course, that's all from my memory. If you have data proving otherwise or a list of routes that were upgauged, I'm happy to be corrected.


      Actually, the sUA 757s filled in for the sCO 737s out of CLE so technically it was a capacity upgrade. They were on quite a few routes too: CLE-LAX/LGA/EWR/BOS/MCO/FLL etc.


      On a regularly scheduled basis, though? And for how long? I certainly never remember seeing 757s scheduled on CLE-FLL/LGA/BOS, and not even regularly on CLE-LAX/MCO, and I checked schedules frequently. If they were on those routes, it must have been a relative flash in the pan.


      Well the sUA 757s were consistently making moves at CLE before they retired them, but usually on and off to different places. IIRC, CLE-MCO/FLL/LAS/BOS/LGA/ORD/DEN were fairly consistent around 2012-2013. I recall flying LAX-EWR on one of them and the aircraft was actually coming in from CLE on a previous flight. CLE-LAX/EWR/SFO/IAH not as consistent from what I remember. I think even CLE-PHX had a sUA 757 on it for a little while as well. They weren't on CLE routes for a very long time since UA retired them quickly, but I will say they were quick to swap the 757s to the CLE hub fairly quickly after the merger in favor of the sCO 737 aircraft going to Legacy United Hubs. They did the same thing at IAH and to a certain extent EWR. For instance I recall flying an sUA 757 in 2012 on EWR-MIA and in 2013 on EWR-FLL (which came in from PHX.)
       
      washingtonflyer
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      Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

      Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:25 am

      Yeah in terms of crash and retreat, I think PIT and STL would be my candidates. USAir was Pittsburgh and had a massive operation there - complete with the "E" gates. All that died when US abandoned it in 2004. IIRC they went from about 22,000,000 passengers in 2000 to less than 10,000,000 by 2005. STL's drop on an absolute basis may have been bigger because STL was TWA and TWA was STL.

      One thing I'll point out about US's peak mainline numbers is that the 355 number was indicative of the problem. US mainline flew all sorts of mini, low capacity birds including F100s, 737-200s, and DC9-30s at PIT. I think the F28s which were even smaller were mostly CLT based.
       
      Roots1
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      Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

      Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:34 am

      I think it's reasonable to say consolidation in the 2000's/early 2010's absolutely contributed to the decline/closure of several hub airports in smaller metros. CLE and MEM certainly come to mind.

      CVG's decline began prior to the Delta/Northwest merger but was certainly accelerated by the merger. CVG was limited local traffic, very RJ-heavy (especially 50-seaters) which made economics challenging enough, and shared the same traffic flows as DTW.

      PIT was more a matter of high airport costs from terminal construction, hosting a hub for a bankrupt airline, and with a small local market compared to much larger Philadelphia, the two competed for traffic flows.
       
      washingtonflyer
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      Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

      Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:49 am

      knope2001 wrote:
      Pulled together some quick weekday flight counts for some of the hubs being discussed and a few counterparts from the era(s), including a few right before they were purchased or went under.

      These are not guaranteed to be the absolute peak but should be pretty close, at very lease illustrative of approximate size in their hayday.. A good amount of this is courtesy of departeflights.com. I also added a note to a few for a bit more information.

      One other thing to keep in mind -- this spans the period where "regionals" might be mostly 19-seat props for hubs in the 80's but might be mostly 50-seat RJ's by the late 90's / 00's.

      total …. mainline …. regional
      595 …....... 162 …....... 433 …....... Cincinnati Delta …....... July 2001 …....... peak mainline 219 December 1996
      537 …....... 367 …....... 170 …....... St Louis TWA …....... October 1997
      532 …....... 274 …....... 258 …....... Pittsburgh USAirways …....... July 2001 …....... peak mainline 355 May 1994
      300 …......... 95 …....... 205 …....... Cleveland Continental …....... April 2000 …....... peak mainline 128 October 1994
      289 …....... 211 …......... 78 …....... Memphis Northwest …....... January 1987 …....... modern total peak 265 (132+133) July 2001
      265 …....... 116 …....... 149 …....... Nashville American …....... April 1993 …....... peak mainline 137 April 1992
      261 …....... 155 …....... 106 …....... Baltimore USAirways …....... October 1989
      236 …....... 128 …....... 108 …....... Chicago Midway …....... October 1990
      211 …....... 121 …......... 90 …....... Raleigh American …....... December 1992 …....... peak mainline 128 June 1991
      200 …......... 93 …....... 107 …....... Kansas City Braniff …....... September 1989
      198 …....... 143 …......... 55 …....... St Louis Ozark …....... December 1985
      196 …....... 147 …......... 49 …....... Salt Lake Western …....... March 1987
      175 …....... 144 …......... 31 …....... Denver Frontier (1) …....... November 1984
      154 …......... 53 …....... 101 …....... Milwaukee Midwest …....... October 2007 …....... peak mainline 63 May 1999
      144 …......... 71 …......... 73 …....... Dayton Piedmont …....... December 1987 …....... peak mainline 81 August 1989
      138 …....... 108 …......... 30 …....... Raleigh Midway …....... June 2001
      134 …......... 60 …......... 74 …....... Kansas City Eastern …....... January 1987
      96 …........... 55 …......... 41 …....... Greensboro Continental …....... April 1995
      92 …........... 62 …......... 30 …....... Syracuse Piedmont/USAir …....... March 1988


      This is good stuff. One more that I might add to this is MCI for US Airways. In the mid- to late-1990s they had that mini hub at MCI that fed all the little flyover cities like SLN, HYS, and CID, plus service to the largest cities like SFO, LAX, LAS, IND, LGA, DCA, PIT, PHL, and the like. They took up all of terminal A and may have represented 100 daily flights.
       
      rbavfan
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      Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

      Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:35 am

      Polot wrote:
      PHX has a massive WN operation. Even if AA was to dehub PHX its drop would be nowhere near dramatic as airports like CVG/STL/PIT.


      You all realize as of Dec 02-2020 WN had 125 daily flights to 51 cities from 17 gates from STL.

      Currently: STL has 17 gates, 108 flights to 55 cities.
      PHX has 24 gates, 181 flights to 59 cities.

      While WN only list "Focus Cities" that everyone else would call a hub. I would say it is still a hub.
       
      flyguy89
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      Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

      Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:26 am

      Revelation wrote:
      maps4ltd wrote:
      RJNUT wrote:
      i agree with PSA. esp. STL and PIT. i remember frustrating ATC delays constantly into STL back in the 80's

      As a STL resident, I think the most dramatic decline was CVG. In the early 2000s, they had 500-600 departures a day.

      CVG to me seems to be the poster child for the inland hub that died as soon as narrow bodies had enough range to not need inland hubs. I remember waiting for plane changes in CVG and saying to myself, "What am I doing here?". There was no reason at all for me to be in Northeast Kentucky except for the hub, whereas I had enough social and business contacts in PIT and STL to justify a trip.

      I’d point out however that they probably had the softest landing of all the hubs with a drawdown that’s lasted over 10 years, and to a level of DL service far larger than what US and AA left PIT and STL with respectively.


      MohawkWeekend wrote:
      CVG never needed all it's runways either.

      Eh, seems to have paid off nicely though with the DHL and Amazon hubs.
       
      rbavfan
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      Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

      Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:38 am

      AWACSooner wrote:
      AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
      Is it an a.net rule that every thread must turn into a discussion of the future of AA at PHX?

      Well, NW retired all their DC-9's, so what the hell else are we going to talk about?


      You mean DL retired all of NW DC-9's after flying then till no choice to retire.
       
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      LAX772LR
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      Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

      Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:49 am

      MohawkWeekend wrote:
      Let's put it another way - If NW/CO/TWA still existed, do you believe CVG, CLE, MEM and STL would still have 100 to 150 flights a day by the DL, CO, NW and TWA respectfully ?

      As stated, who knows. But if I had to guess: then I'd say "no," to all the above.

      Why? Because, as the airlines found out: when you cut them bit-by-bit, the economies of scale suffer, to the point where the revenues aren't able to keep up with the costs of a low O&D city. So the end result is the same.

      I mean, these are all cities that can't even justify a flight to LON-- and those have been given out like candy over the last half-decade.
      CVG somewhat bucks the trend with its longstanding CDG flight, if that indeed even returns, due in large part to a single corporation (P&G).
      I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
       
      rbavfan
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      Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

      Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:00 am

      dfwjim1 wrote:
      FLALEFTY wrote:
      jfklganyc wrote:


      PHX is one of the fastest growing areas in the US. The other hubs that closed were states and cities that people were leaving

      AA isn’t going anywhere at PHX


      https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp?20=E

      In terms of passenger traffic, PHX is the 7th-largest airport in the US. It is bigger than two other AA hubs, PHL (#18) & MIA (#19).

      For the record, the top-10 airports are: (#1) ATL, (#2) DFW, (#3) DEN, (#4) CLT, (#5) ORD, (#6) LAX, (#7) PHX, (#8) LAS, (#9) MCO, (#10) SEA.


      In regards to PHX and MIA remember that the Phoenix area has only one major airport while the Miami area has two, MIA and FLL, plus a third further north, Palm Beach.


      If you call PBI a major airport then so is AZA (Phoenix/Mesa Gateway airport.) In time it will grow past 10 current gates. They may add Goodyear airport in the future as well for the west side. They have land for terminal & a nice long runway as well. But Phoenix still gets the bulk of it all.
       
      rbavfan
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      Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

      Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:01 am

      Also what does all the now that aircaft can fly trans con the middle of the country is not needed. Wow. Guy no one in the midwest Fly's.
       
      rbavfan
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      Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

      Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:10 am

      knope2001 wrote:
      Pulled together some quick weekday flight counts for some of the hubs being discussed and a few counterparts from the era(s), including a few right before they were purchased or went under.

      These are not guaranteed to be the absolute peak but should be pretty close, at very lease illustrative of approximate size in their hayday.. A good amount of this is courtesy of departeflights.com. I also added a note to a few for a bit more information.

      One other thing to keep in mind -- this spans the period where "regionals" might be mostly 19-seat props for hubs in the 80's but might be mostly 50-seat RJ's by the late 90's / 00's.

      total …. mainline …. regional
      595 …....... 162 …....... 433 …....... Cincinnati Delta …....... July 2001 …....... peak mainline 219 December 1996
      537 …....... 367 …....... 170 …....... St Louis TWA …....... October 1997
      532 …....... 274 …....... 258 …....... Pittsburgh USAirways …....... July 2001 …....... peak mainline 355 May 1994
      300 …......... 95 …....... 205 …....... Cleveland Continental …....... April 2000 …....... peak mainline 128 October 1994
      289 …....... 211 …......... 78 …....... Memphis Northwest …....... January 1987 …....... modern total peak 265 (132+133) July 2001
      265 …....... 116 …....... 149 …....... Nashville American …....... April 1993 …....... peak mainline 137 April 1992
      261 …....... 155 …....... 106 …....... Baltimore USAirways …....... October 1989
      236 …....... 128 …....... 108 …....... Chicago Midway …....... October 1990
      211 …....... 121 …......... 90 …....... Raleigh American …....... December 1992 …....... peak mainline 128 June 1991
      200 …......... 93 …....... 107 …....... Kansas City Braniff …....... September 1989
      198 …....... 143 …......... 55 …....... St Louis Ozark …....... December 1985
      196 …....... 147 …......... 49 …....... Salt Lake Western …....... March 1987
      175 …....... 144 …......... 31 …....... Denver Frontier (1) …....... November 1984
      154 …......... 53 …....... 101 …....... Milwaukee Midwest …....... October 2007 …....... peak mainline 63 May 1999
      144 …......... 71 …......... 73 …....... Dayton Piedmont …....... December 1987 …....... peak mainline 81 August 1989
      138 …....... 108 …......... 30 …....... Raleigh Midway …....... June 2001
      134 …......... 60 …......... 74 …....... Kansas City Eastern …....... January 1987
      96 …........... 55 …......... 41 …....... Greensboro Continental …....... April 1995
      92 …........... 62 …......... 30 …....... Syracuse Piedmont/USAir …....... March 1988




      As TWA & Ozark merged in 1986 the TWA numbers are all you needed as they merged their hubs for the 1997 numbers. It's the only city you listed twice that the 2 main airlines merged.And as TWA got swallowed by AA and they shut down the hub you should hve the numbers just before AA shut it down.
       
      freshwater
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      Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

      Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:37 am

      AWACSooner wrote:
      AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
      Is it an a.net rule that every thread must turn into a discussion of the future of AA at PHX?

      Well, NW retired all their DC-9's, so what the hell else are we going to talk about?


      Euro longhaul LCC startups?
       
      MohawkWeekend
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      Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

      Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:52 am

      LAX772LR wrote:
      MohawkWeekend wrote:
      Let's put it another way - If NW/CO/TWA still existed, do you believe CVG, CLE, MEM and STL would still have 100 to 150 flights a day by the DL, CO, NW and TWA respectfully ?

      As stated, who knows. But if I had to guess: then I'd say "no," to all the above.

      Why? Because, as the airlines found out: when you cut them bit-by-bit, the economies of scale suffer, to the point where the revenues aren't able to keep up with the costs of a low O&D city. So the end result is the same.

      I mean, these are all cities that can't even justify a flight to LON-- and those have been given out like candy over the last half-decade.
      CVG somewhat bucks the trend with its longstanding CDG flight, if that indeed even returns, due in large part to a single corporation (P&G).



      Good points. I guess I'm still upset that cities bought into these expansion plans encouraged by airlines "that if you build it, they will come".
        300 319 320 321 707 717 720 727 72S 737 73S 734 735 73G 738 739 747 757 762 ARJ B11 C212 CRJ CR2 CR7 CR9 CV5 D8S DC9 D9S D94 D95 D10 DH8 DTO EMB EM2 E135 E145 E190 FH7 F28 F100 FTRIMTR HRN L10 L15 M80 M90 SF3 SWM YS11
         
        kavok
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:20 am

        One other point, that hasn’t been mentioned as much, is the changing US economy due to globalization in the 20ish years between the late 1980s and the early 2000s.

        And what I mean by that, is that for many small to midsize markets, their economic relevance greatly diminished during that time period. For most industries, to compete in the global economy, the management/technology/service jobs needed to be located in a big enough metropolis to remain competitive. For most industries, there simply wasn’t enough people with the skill set needed to remain globally competitive if you were located in a small metro region. Prior to the 1980s though, you could have been.

        My point is that pre2000 there were profits to be made and legitimate (even if at small scale) business needs to/from these small sized Midwestern and Northeastern cities... and thus profits could be generated for the airlines that flew them. As the jobs then consolidated into the larger metro areas, the need for flights to those smaller cities became significantly diminished (and the need for several Midwest/Northeast hubs went with it).
         
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:57 am

        rbavfan wrote:
        Also what does all the now that aircaft can fly trans con the middle of the country is not needed. Wow. Guy no one in the midwest Fly's.

        A HUB in the middle of the country is less needed. You will notice that all the airports mentioned still have service with most major airlines as spokes.
         
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        jfklganyc
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:03 pm

        aemoreira1981 wrote:
        jfklganyc wrote:
        STT757 wrote:
        The top three would be CVG, PIT, STL.

        The next tier would be DFW (DL), DEN (CO), CLE (UA), MEM (DL), RDU (AA), BNA (AA), SJC (AA), MCO (DL), GSO (CO), BWI (US), DAY (US), SYR (US), MCI (EA, US), IND (US), BOS (US, AA).



        How about TWA at JFK? That was painful to watch from the Tri state area


        For all intents and purposes though, B6 effectively replaced TW (TWA) in aircraft movements. DL also grew. The biggest drop has to be PIT, and that’s self inflicted. The airport authority basically called US’ bluff and US responded by building up PHL. PIT never recovered.



        B6 easily covered it.

        How large was TWA at its peak in JFK?

        B6 is at 180 or so flights. I don’t think TW ever got higher than 100.
         
        cledaybuck
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:35 pm

        Polot wrote:
        A HUB in the middle of the country is less needed.

        No it’s not. AA, UA, DL, and WN all have multiple hubs in the middle of the country.
        As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
         
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:00 pm

        knope2001 wrote:
        Pulled together some quick weekday flight counts for some of the hubs being discussed and a few counterparts from the era(s), including a few right before they were purchased or went under.

        These are not guaranteed to be the absolute peak but should be pretty close, at very lease illustrative of approximate size in their hayday.. A good amount of this is courtesy of departeflights.com. I also added a note to a few for a bit more information.

        One other thing to keep in mind -- this spans the period where "regionals" might be mostly 19-seat props for hubs in the 80's but might be mostly 50-seat RJ's by the late 90's / 00's.

        total …. mainline …. regional
        595 …....... 162 …....... 433 …....... Cincinnati Delta …....... July 2001 …....... peak mainline 219 December 1996
        537 …....... 367 …....... 170 …....... St Louis TWA …....... October 1997
        532 …....... 274 …....... 258 …....... Pittsburgh USAirways …....... July 2001 …....... peak mainline 355 May 1994
        300 …......... 95 …....... 205 …....... Cleveland Continental …....... April 2000 …....... peak mainline 128 October 1994
        289 …....... 211 …......... 78 …....... Memphis Northwest …....... January 1987 …....... modern total peak 265 (132+133) July 2001
        265 …....... 116 …....... 149 …....... Nashville American …....... April 1993 …....... peak mainline 137 April 1992
        261 …....... 155 …....... 106 …....... Baltimore USAirways …....... October 1989
        236 …....... 128 …....... 108 …....... Chicago Midway …....... October 1990
        211 …....... 121 …......... 90 …....... Raleigh American …....... December 1992 …....... peak mainline 128 June 1991
        200 …......... 93 …....... 107 …....... Kansas City Braniff …....... September 1989
        198 …....... 143 …......... 55 …....... St Louis Ozark …....... December 1985
        196 …....... 147 …......... 49 …....... Salt Lake Western …....... March 1987
        175 …....... 144 …......... 31 …....... Denver Frontier (1) …....... November 1984
        154 …......... 53 …....... 101 …....... Milwaukee Midwest …....... October 2007 …....... peak mainline 63 May 1999
        144 …......... 71 …......... 73 …....... Dayton Piedmont …....... December 1987 …....... peak mainline 81 August 1989
        138 …....... 108 …......... 30 …....... Raleigh Midway …....... June 2001
        134 …......... 60 …......... 74 …....... Kansas City Eastern …....... January 1987
        96 …........... 55 …......... 41 …....... Greensboro Continental …....... April 1995
        92 …........... 62 …......... 30 …....... Syracuse Piedmont/USAir …....... March 1988


        Thanks for doing this. Very interesting.
         
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:10 pm

        cledaybuck wrote:
        Polot wrote:
        A HUB in the middle of the country is less needed.

        No it’s not. AA, UA, DL, and WN all have multiple hubs in the middle of the country.


        United’s best hub right now is Denver, and they’re not alone at Denver. It’s going to be Southwest’s largest hubs, if it isn’t already. And Frontier still has a sizable presence.
        Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
         
        bfitzflyer
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:16 pm

        Not mention of BWI, I don't recall all of the details, but if I recall, USAir basically got crushed by Southwest, but I am going by memory and may have been more to it, I am sure.
        Some smaller ones too,
        TPA for NW - dropped with Republic merger
        SJC for AA - cane and went a couple times
        DCA for NW - took over EA routes for a year or two and offered connections
        CMH for HP - t think dropped after 9/11
        RNO for AA -acquired Reno Air, dropped shortly thereafter
        NRT for DL - dropped in favor of HND and different Pacific strategy
         
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:37 pm

        I forgot about US Air’s CLE hub, it was around in the late eighties and early Nineties.

        http://www.departedflights.com/CLE89p1.html
        Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
         
        496TFS
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 2:56 pm

        Always hated flying into STL. Many crews named it Malfunction Junction.
         
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        knope2001
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:01 pm

        rbavfan wrote:
        As TWA & Ozark merged in 1986 the TWA numbers are all you needed as they merged their hubs for the 1997 numbers. It's the only city you listed twice that the 2 main airlines merged.And as TWA got swallowed by AA and they shut down the hub you should hve the numbers just before AA shut it down.


        A few things influenced what was on the list::

        --Hubs operations mentioned in this thread and similar recent discussions
        --Data readily available to me
        --Inclusion of some select peers for comparison from the period

        St Louis only happens to be listed twice because (1) the Ozark-only peak from the mid 80's is a decent comparison point to operations of the era such as Kansas City Eastern, Kansas City Braniff, Dayton Piedmont and (2) the TWA peak 15 years later is being discussed along with CVG/DL and PIT/US.

        There are some others -- particularly both SJC peaks -- I would have liked to include but didn't have reasonably fast sources to hit (close to) the highpoint. It would be a nice -- but much much larger project -- to have snapshots of all the hubs at various timepoints for comparison, not just ones which are gone. Feel free to compile and add to this list if you'd like, of course.
         
        washingtonflyer
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:04 pm

        Polot wrote:
        rbavfan wrote:
        Also what does all the now that aircaft can fly trans con the middle of the country is not needed. Wow. Guy no one in the midwest Fly's.

        A HUB in the middle of the country is less needed. You will notice that all the airports mentioned still have service with most major airlines as spokes.


        Someone had better get on the phone with United and American: those hubs in Chicago and Dallas aren't needed.

        You've got a hangover, right?
         
        MIflyer12
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:12 pm

        LAX772LR wrote:
        MohawkWeekend wrote:
        NW and Delta Merge - CVG and MEM shut down, DTW and ATL win

        DL de-banked CVG in 2003, and began drawing it down significantly in 2005.

        By the time of the 2008 merger, CVG had already lost the majority of its international flights, and served 12million LESS passengers than its 2004/2005 high.


        And further to that point, NW's MEM 4th bank was very short-lived -- 9/11 whacked it. Seriously: the announcement came 9/17/01, from the start of the 4th bank 6/2000. At the time of DL's offer, NW at MEM was already rather smaller than knope's (post #67) 2001 flight peak.

        And, returning to the flaw of using flight counts rather than seats, these pre-merger / post-merger flight comparisons ignore some upgauging.
         
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        jfklganyc
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:50 pm

        washingtonflyer wrote:
        Polot wrote:
        rbavfan wrote:
        Also what does all the now that aircaft can fly trans con the middle of the country is not needed. Wow. Guy no one in the midwest Fly's.

        A HUB in the middle of the country is less needed. You will notice that all the airports mentioned still have service with most major airlines as spokes.


        Someone had better get on the phone with United and American: those hubs in Chicago and Dallas aren't needed.

        You've got a hangover, right?




        The hubs left are large cities with huge O and D

        Not comparable in anyway to the 80s midwest low O and D hubs.

        They also have large international demand. Again, this wasnt present in the 80s midwest low O and D hubs.

        Dallas, Chicago Denver, Houston...great hubs.

        But there are many cities in between that could have been hubs 30 years ago...and couldnt be hubs today.

        What changed? IND-STL-LAX. that can now effectively be flown by a small aircraft non stop.
        BDL-STL-LAX. Same thing. Non stop on a narrowbody now.

        30 years ago you needed a 767 to fly from coast to coast. Now you can do it with a 727 sized airplane...with two engines to boot
         
        washingtonflyer
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:34 pm

        jfklganyc wrote:
        washingtonflyer wrote:
        Polot wrote:
        A HUB in the middle of the country is less needed. You will notice that all the airports mentioned still have service with most major airlines as spokes.


        Someone had better get on the phone with United and American: those hubs in Chicago and Dallas aren't needed.

        You've got a hangover, right?




        The hubs left are large cities with huge O and D


        But see Charlotte Douglas International Airport....
         
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        Revelation
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:00 pm

        MIflyer12 wrote:
        Revelation wrote:
        "Don't work out" != "stuck with the tab", but PIT comes close to that standard:
        The airport underwent a massive $1 billion rebuilding and expansion which was completed in 1992 and became a major hub for US Airways. The new airport was one of the most innovative in the world, dubbed the "airport of the future" by the New York Times,[7] and helped to pioneer modern airport design with its X-shape to reduce distance between gates, underground tram to transport passengers around the airport, and array of shopping options, all of which were cutting-edge at the time.[8][9] Traffic peaked at 20 million passengers in the late 1990s, but US Airways, which was facing bankruptcy, abandoned it as a hub in 2004, eliminating thousands of jobs and nearly bankrupting the airport itself, which was built largely to suit US Airways' needs.[10][11]

        That's a good reference, but PIT didn't go bankrupt and stick taxpayers with the tab, did they? The airport still services its debt. How many U.S. air carrier bankruptcies - Ch 11 or Ch 7 liquidations - have we seen since 1992? U.S. airports are reliable borrowers.

        Again, "Don't work out" != "stuck with the tab", but yes, in the end, US airports typically find ways to pay off their debt.

        When things do not work out, usually they can find ways to stretch out the payment period to get lower monthly payments to try to match income and expense. This is what PIT did, as did my home airport MHT which was never a hub but was a growth spot for WN for a decade or so and is now over-built / under-utilized after an expensive expansion in the early 00s.

        MHT has struggled to keep up with bond payments even after re-financing. They have sold some airport land and buildings, and have rented some unused parking lots to local car and truck dealers for storage of unsold vehicles, kind of the equivalent of selling the family silver and taking in boarders. Apparently the idea is to avoid going into default on the bonds as long as it can.

        Should they go in default, I suppose it would be like any other bankruptcy, the debt holders would form a committee to decide on whether to liquidate the airport (lots of valuable land in most cases) or take a haircut on the debt, take ownership of the airport and find new management to run it. Clearly the airport authority won't want this to happen so they would presumably hit up the airport owners (in the case of PIT, the local county; in the case of MHT, two local cities) and ask for loans to avoid this.

        I doubt the bonds are structured in a way that the bond holders can force the airport authority's owners to make good on the bonds, it would defeat the purpose of having an airport authority. Yet the end effect is as if they can. As above, the local government and thus the taxpayers are the owners of the airport and presumably it is not in their interest to just abandon the asset they own, so chances are they would make good on the bonds if the airport itself could no longer pay them off.

        And yes, a lot of the funding for expansion programs comes from federal AIP (airport improvement) funding (at least for the airport stuff such as runways and navaids) which is paid for by fees paid by airlines which means fees paid by passengers, in most cases a large number of whom are local taxpayers, but the exact relationship of how much funding users of airport X contributes vs how much airport X receives wasn't clear in any of the articles I read.

        Looping back to our topic of "When a hub is no longer a hub", in the case of PIT it seems it has largely paid down its bonds from the early 90s expansion and it will be issuing new bonds for the upcoming project to "de-hub" their airport. They will be sacrificing 20 under-utilized gates to build a new land side terminal into the existing air side facility and getting rid of the people mover, which costs a lot to operate and maintain. As a transit passenger, I don't recall ever using the people mover, but looking at a youtube video I can see why the locals do not enjoy having to use it. It just adds one more hurdle to jump through to get on to the airplane. It's all underground and dark, unlike TPA where at least part of it goes outside. They also seem to be abandoning one of the three runways simply because it is not needed and is costly to maintain.

        So, the answer seems to be, over-expansion in the US is painful but not fatal. Hopefully you can find a way to re-finance the debt, pay it out over time, and eventually right size the airport.

        Some links I found useful:
        washingtonflyer wrote:
        One thing I'll point out about US's peak mainline numbers is that the 355 number was indicative of the problem. US mainline flew all sorts of mini, low capacity birds including F100s, 737-200s, and DC9-30s at PIT. I think the F28s which were even smaller were mostly CLT based.

        Yes, I know I've been on all three, and plenty other US narrow bodies such as 727, 757 and MD-XX. Typical flight was one of the smaller birds from my home airport at MHT to PIT, then 757 from PIT to the West Coast or MD-XX to Florida. So much nostalgia now, wish I had spent even more time exploring during my layovers at PIT. Sad for US that they really were a mashup of many airlines and ended up with a jumbled fleet of aging planes.
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        GuillaumePhilly
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:11 pm

        Noise wrote:
        It will be interesting to see how big of a drop PHX will suffer when AA closes the hub there.


        :roll:

        Hasn't happened after almost a decade post-merger. Even in today's upside down world it's still unlikely to happen. A.net mythology that just needs to :tapedshut: :talktothehand: :tombstone:
         
        bfitzflyer
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:19 pm

        MIflyer12 wrote:
        LAX772LR wrote:
        MohawkWeekend wrote:
        NW and Delta Merge - CVG and MEM shut down, DTW and ATL win

        DL de-banked CVG in 2003, and began drawing it down significantly in 2005.

        By the time of the 2008 merger, CVG had already lost the majority of its international flights, and served 12million LESS passengers than its 2004/2005 high.


        And further to that point, NW's MEM 4th bank was very short-lived -- 9/11 whacked it. Seriously: the announcement came 9/17/01, from the start of the 4th bank 6/2000. At the time of DL's offer, NW at MEM was already rather smaller than knope's (post #67) 2001 flight peak.

        And, returning to the flaw of using flight counts rather than seats, these pre-merger / post-merger flight comparisons ignore some upgauging.


        I thought shortly after the Merger of NW and Republic there were 5 banks and then the slow downgrade or rightsizing of MEM happened pretty much to the conclusion with DL.
         
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        CLEguy
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:38 pm

        STT757 wrote:
        I forgot about US Air’s CLE hub, it was around in the late eighties and early Nineties.

        http://www.departedflights.com/CLE89p1.html


        Exactly! At its peak (6/15/19), US operated 84 flights from CLE, 66 mainline and 21 commuter flights to 32 cities. This was in the wake of UA's first hub closure and capacity constraints at PIT while its new terminal was being built. CO eventually overtook US and the US hub operation ended around 1991-92. Please check out this article about US' CLE hub.

        https://www.aviationcle.com/post/usair- ... ub-1987-92
         
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        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:52 pm

        Runway765 wrote:
        LAX772LR wrote:
        Runway765 wrote:
        Yes, absent the mergers, some of these hubs would have survived.

        Based on what? There's not enough evidence to definitively make that claim, or the opposite for that matter.

        With the exception of CLE, simply do not know how they would've dealt with everything from the fuel insanity of 2008 to the market crash of 2009; not to mention today's environment.


        If DL had not merged with NW, CVG likely would’ve remained a SLC sized hub (flight wise) for them. Perhaps that would have been the only one with a chance of survival in a different timeline.

        Though it is interesting to note Vasu Raja publicly stated AA should not have have closed STL and instead should have bulked it up.

        https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/american/130191-vasu-raja-interview.html

        I feel like he's saying that to be nice. If STL is so desirable, what's to stop AA from beefing operations back up? There's plenty of space that is sitting unused. It's just not necessary. I think even if AA had gone all in on STL back then, it wouldn't have lasted for all of the reasons mentioned above about hubs like this.
         
        pmanni1
        Posts: 383
        Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:17 am

        Re: When a hub is no longer a hub

        Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:01 pm

        msp747 wrote:
        Runway765 wrote:
        LAX772LR wrote:
        Based on what? There's not enough evidence to definitively make that claim, or the opposite for that matter.

        With the exception of CLE, simply do not know how they would've dealt with everything from the fuel insanity of 2008 to the market crash of 2009; not to mention today's environment.


        If DL had not merged with NW, CVG likely would’ve remained a SLC sized hub (flight wise) for them. Perhaps that would have been the only one with a chance of survival in a different timeline.

        Though it is interesting to note Vasu Raja publicly stated AA should not have have closed STL and instead should have bulked it up.

        https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/american/130191-vasu-raja-interview.html

        I feel like he's saying that to be nice. If STL is so desirable, what's to stop AA from beefing operations back up? There's plenty of space that is sitting unused. It's just not necessary. I think even if AA had gone all in on STL back then, it wouldn't have lasted for all of the reasons mentioned above about hubs like this.

        WN is too dominate at STL and AA wouldn't stand a chance at any big growth. I don't see AA adding any gates because the ones that are available are scattered throughout the C concourse with other airlines in between.

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