Well, last week's conversation being Copa in the 4 inner Argentina cities that they serve, this one will seem a bit like backtracking from that thread.

Because for years I have been wondering, Melbourne being Australia's second largest city, with about 5,000,000 plus population around it, and a large fashion industry to boot, among other things....

What's keeping American and Delta from serving it?

United has two cities from it.

Thanks in advance, God bless!!!

I doubt you will see a US carrier flying into MEL for pax service for a long long time.

No one yet knows how Australia international travel looks like given their tight border controls.

AA100 wrote:

I doubt you will see a US carrier flying into MEL for pax service for a long long time.

No one yet knows how Australia international travel looks like given their tight border controls.

Right...but...I thought United was already flying there...

Lets assume Covid is not an issue.

1. AA has a JV with QF, so it defacto already serves MEL via QF nonstop LAX and SFO flights.
2. SYD is a larger US O&D market compared to MEL

Fairly certain AA would have taken over a few of QF’s LAX-MEL frequencies by now if it wasn’t for covid. DL was serving MEL with their [suspended] JV with Virgin Australia.

Many Americans go to Australia for cruises. All the cruises go out of Sydney, so it isn't just the population, but what drives tourism.

johns624 wrote:

Many Americans go to Australia for cruises. All the cruises go out of Sydney, so it isn't just the population, but what drives tourism.

SYD would definitely have greater inbound demand from the USA, however cruises in Australia have starting points all over the country including BNE, MEL and PER

Around half the 767,000 annual visitors to Australia from the USA (2019 data) were tourists, and 2/3 of those arrived in Sydney, a little under a third of those to Melbourne.

Pre-covid, there were 2 daily x United 789 (LAX and SFO), daily VA 773 (LAX) and 10 weekly (7x A380, 3x744) QF flights. Not a lot of room for extras, especially when you're committing two frames to a daily rotation.

Unrelated to US carriers but AC flew YVR-MEL, with a 789. Longest flight in the network at 16.5 hours :O

Kent350787 wrote:

Around half the 767,000 annual visitors to Australia from the USA (2019 data) were tourists, and 2/3 of those arrived in Sydney, a little under a third of those to Melbourne.

Pre-covid, there were 2 daily x United 789 (LAX and SFO), daily VA 773 (LAX) and 10 weekly (7x A380, 3x744) QF flights. Not a lot of room for extras, especially when you're committing two frames to a daily rotation.

Not Paiute right for MEL,
QF
LAX 7x 388, 2x 789
SFO 4x 789

UA
4x LAX 789
3x SFO 789

VA
LAX 5x77W

ZK-NBT wrote:

Kent350787 wrote:

Around half the 767,000 annual visitors to Australia from the USA (2019 data) were tourists, and 2/3 of those arrived in Sydney, a little under a third of those to Melbourne.

Pre-covid, there were 2 daily x United 789 (LAX and SFO), daily VA 773 (LAX) and 10 weekly (7x A380, 3x744) QF flights. Not a lot of room for extras, especially when you're committing two frames to a daily rotation.

Not Paiute right for MEL,
QF
LAX 7x 388, 2x 789
SFO 4x 789

UA
4x LAX 789
3x SFO 789

VA
LAX 5x77W

Cheers - I'd actually forgotten the QF789s in particular somehow. Just drove past 3 at the SYD jetbase, so it seems pretty stupid of me.

BUt it does show that ther was already a lot of capacioty pre-Covid, and little good reaosn for the US airlines to send their own metal/fiber.

Kent350787 wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

Kent350787 wrote:

Around half the 767,000 annual visitors to Australia from the USA (2019 data) were tourists, and 2/3 of those arrived in Sydney, a little under a third of those to Melbourne.

Pre-covid, there were 2 daily x United 789 (LAX and SFO), daily VA 773 (LAX) and 10 weekly (7x A380, 3x744) QF flights. Not a lot of room for extras, especially when you're committing two frames to a daily rotation.

Not Paiute right for MEL,
QF
LAX 7x 388, 2x 789
SFO 4x 789

UA
4x LAX 789
3x SFO 789

VA
LAX 5x77W

Cheers - I'd actually forgotten the QF789s in particular somehow. Just drove past 3 at the SYD jetbase, so it seems pretty stupid of me.

BUt it does show that ther was already a lot of capacioty pre-Covid, and little good reaosn for the US airlines to send their own metal/fiber.

The extra QF capacity is fairly recent, it was a daily 388 MEL-LAX for years then an extra 2-3 weekly 744s which changed to 789s up to 6 weekly then a split between LAX/SFO. I would have seen an AA service LAX-MEL to replace the second QF flight and possibly a QF service to DFW with project sunrise on an A350.

VA came back into MEL-LAX when 2018 or so was it? I always thought with their JV with DL that a DL 77L would be a better fit and allow daily with the smaller frame, no more 777 so maybe an A359 down the line some years as I have my doubts VA will be back long haul for a while.

UA added LAX-MEL in 2014 daily iirc, SFO was 2018 or so iirc, they may have been 10 weekly 1 year possibly with LAX being daily?

With JVs there IMO was pre COVID room for AA and DL and possibly post COVID again later in the 2020s post A380 for QF/AA.

johns624 wrote:

Many Americans go to Australia for cruises. All the cruises go out of Sydney, so it isn't just the population, but what drives tourism.

Pre-COVID, there were a couple of cruise liners based out of MEL for the Summer. MEL was also a popular port of call as well, The Queens were semi-regular visitors.

Back on topic, as others have said, there was plenty of capacity MEL - West Coast US pre-plague, to the point where return fares could be had for under AUD$1K on occasion.

Though with the border restrictions here, looks like it might not be until late 2022-2023 until unrestricted travel to the US restarts.

melpax wrote:

Though with the border restrictions here, looks like it might not be until late 2022-2023 until unrestricted travel to the US restarts.

I hope not. I have a AKL-SYD cruise planned for 1/22.

Pre covid you could often find a return fare MEL-LAX-MEL for around $750-900aud, departing the next day even. Insane value for the distance travelled. 3 airlines direct plus don’t forget NZ offering competitive one stops over AKL.
This was my search on the 4th November 2018, departing on the 5th.



So whilst I think PAX would be there for the US3, AU2 and NZ skimming the dregs, seems the yields especially for such a long flight wouldn’t be acceptable with that much capacity.