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MaxTrimm
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City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:51 am

Hello,

I was just browsing A.net forums and saw many posts mentioning cities that seemed to have “Endless demand” between one another. While I know this is obviously rhetorical, and it’s not really possible for endless demand to exist, but I’m sure there are many routes where if just about any airline tried it, seats would be filled. Now - I’m not even mentioning yields here. Obviously if seats are cheap enough you can stimulate demand almost anywhere. We’ll also assume this is a world with pre-COVID demand.

But I’m talking with realistic fares, are there any (and if so, what are they) city pairs with just so much demand between them that you could fly any plane any day and it would fill up?
 
cedarjet
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:58 am

LHR-JFK. BA had about eight frequencies a day, almost all 747. Total frequency across all airlines (DL, BA, VS, plus Norwegian from Gatwick and UA and BA to Newark) approx 40 widebodies per day. All full and very profitable
 
jrfspa320
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:00 am

SYD-MEL (pre-covid)
 
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InnsbruckFlyer
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:02 am

HND-CTS, GMP-CJU, PEK-SHA to name just a few.
 
su184
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:05 am

CAI-JED, all sorts of equipment up to 747’s, mostly A330’s, frequency ~20 daily among all airlines.
 
MaxTrimm
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:11 am

I’ll revise my post a little bit - what are city pairs with endless LEISURE demand? The business routes would just be your highest frequency routes in the world, but what about for tourism and VFR traveling?
 
Fuling
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:16 am

MaxTrimm wrote:
I’ll revise my post a little bit - what are city pairs with endless LEISURE demand? The business routes would just be your highest frequency routes in the world, but what about for tourism and VFR traveling?


Nordic and Western Europe, and the UK/Ireland to anywhere Mediterranean.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:36 am

New York to Florida routes.
 
gpasternak
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:53 am

I think regardless if business was included or not, there would probably be some similarities with the busiest routes in the world.
JNB/CPT comes to mind..and as someone already said SYD/MEL
 
aviator2000
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:54 am

MAD-BCN, OSL-AGP/ALC, DUS-PMI
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:23 am

cedarjet wrote:
All full and very profitable

You may be surprised.

As per the doc that was leaked a while back regarding BA's N.Am services, both JFK and LAX were two of BA's weaker yielding destinations (for the traffic that originates and terminates).

Of course, both of these cities are absolutely invaluable to the network, and as such their individual profitability on an O&D basis (which couldn't be determined from a yield comparison) is sorta immaterial. But yeah, despite being 4class and heavily trafficked, they might not be as "very profitable" as you might think per route, and moderately so on an overall basis.
 
by738
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:33 am

Yip no way was/is JFK-LHR always full. Certain BA sectors eg mid winter often ran poorly filled in all classes. Although the corresponding reverse service may have been full and not forgetting cargo. But, from a pax point of view most definitely not ‘always full’
 
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hongkongflyer
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 10:05 am

Shanghai-Beijing Guangzhou and Shenzhen
 
JRadier
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 10:12 am

LAX772LR wrote:
As per the doc that was leaked a while back regarding BA's N.Am services, both JFK and LAX were two of BA's weaker yielding destinations (for the traffic that originates and terminates).

I completely missed this! Do you have a link by any chance?
 
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stl07
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 10:27 am

STL-Panhandle
 
cedarjet
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 10:34 am

by738 wrote:
Yip no way was/is JFK-LHR always full. Certain BA sectors eg mid winter often ran poorly filled in all classes. Although the corresponding reverse service may have been full and not forgetting cargo. But, from a pax point of view most definitely not ‘always full’

Of course there was the odd rainy Tuesday in February with a light load but I flew this route as a passenger dozens of times and it was always very busy, a few empty seats scattered here and there but BA, AA et al were not in the business of flying eight empty jumbos to New York every day, I assure you!
 
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cougar15
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 10:34 am

Hong Kong-Taipei
 
MIflyer12
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 10:46 am

MaxTrimm wrote:
I’ll revise my post a little bit - what are city pairs with endless LEISURE demand?


NYC-LAS. LAX-HNL. (There are seven carriers on that route.) NYC/BOS/WAS/CHI-MCO.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 10:48 am

JRadier wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
As per the doc that was leaked a while back regarding BA's N.Am services, both JFK and LAX were two of BA's weaker yielding destinations (for the traffic that originates and terminates).

I completely missed this! Do you have a link by any chance?

Here's the graphic summary. You can very clearly see why FLL and OAK got dropped....

Image
 
konkret
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 10:50 am

MaxTrimm wrote:
I’ll revise my post a little bit - what are city pairs with endless LEISURE demand? The business routes would just be your highest frequency routes in the world, but what about for tourism and VFR traveling?


Endless lesuire demand?
My bets would be on Tokyo to Honolulu (ANA got 3 A380 just for this route) for international and Seoul to Jeju for domestic.
In Europe PMI to anywhere in Germany or UK.
 
Insertnamehere
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:07 am

Surprised no one has said NYC-LAX/SFO. Has had borderline hourly service pre-covid. And basically endless premium and leisure demand.

Flights to NYC seem to be either make a billion on the route or loose money hand over fist and very little in between.
 
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novak500
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:35 am

YYZ - YUL (pre-covid)
 
Ziyulu
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:38 am

PEK to PVG or SHA; HKG to TPE; LAX to JFK or EWR; JFK to LHR; DFW to AUS; DFW to LAX; SIN to KUL
 
CDG777FAN
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:51 am

CGH to SDU in Brazil or ORY to NCE in France
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 12:02 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
JRadier wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
As per the doc that was leaked a while back regarding BA's N.Am services, both JFK and LAX were two of BA's weaker yielding destinations (for the traffic that originates and terminates).

I completely missed this! Do you have a link by any chance?

Here's the graphic summary. You can very clearly see why FLL and OAK got dropped....

Image


As I have mentioned in the past, that doc is very flawed. For starters avg fare and avg yield are not the same thing, that doc is measuring fare performance. Additionally the only way you can accurately compare the cities listed is by RASM.

But back to JFK-LON, it is very profitable, it makes $27,159/hour. That's much more than it costs to operate the route.
https://www.oag.com/blog/billion-dollar ... i=75733337
 
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NearMiss
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 12:16 pm

SCL-MAD, SCL - BUE (EZE, AEP) and SCL-MIA
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 12:18 pm

NYC-SJU/STI/SDQ, NYC-ATL/MCO/FLL/MIA
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 12:26 pm

Any city in America to Cancun Mexico!
 
SWADawg
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 12:54 pm

LAS to anywhere. MCO to anywhere.
 
LightChop2Chop
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:20 pm

MEX CUN. any spare aircraft in the Mexican fleets get dumped on that as it is ease to fill and cheap to operate.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:45 pm

NY-Florida is probably the grand daddy of them all
 
chonetsao
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 2:06 pm

SYD-MEL, SYD-BNE, SYD-PER must be strong contenders.

Then numerous domestic routes in Asia, like Seoul- Jeju; Tokyo - Osaka, Beijing - Shanghai; New Dheli - Mumbai; Bangkok - Koh Samui/Pahuket/Chiang Mai; Hanoi - HCM City...

Intra Asia you have Singapore - Hong Kong; Hong Kong - Taipei; Taipei - Tokyo...

In Europe, you have Dublin-London; Madrid-Barcelona...etc.

In Africa, you have Johannesburg - Cape Town.

In Latin America you have Sao Paolo - Rio.

In Canada you have Montreal - Toronto. In Russia you have Moscow - St. Petersburg.

There are so many.
 
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eurotrader85
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 4:36 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
JRadier wrote:
I completely missed this! Do you have a link by any chance?

Here's the graphic summary. You can very clearly see why FLL and OAK got dropped....

Image


As I have mentioned in the past, that doc is very flawed. For starters avg fare and avg yield are not the same thing, that doc is measuring fare performance. Additionally the only way you can accurately compare the cities listed is by RASM.

But back to JFK-LON, it is very profitable, it makes $27,159/hour. That's much more than it costs to operate the route.
https://www.oag.com/blog/billion-dollar ... i=75733337


I think the point about NYC - LON is its profitable (was) because of the amount of investment bankers shuttling back and forth ramming the J and F cabins. BA/AA had 14 a day at its peak, they obviously weren't doing that because it was unprofitable, but the profit doesn't lie in an endless stream of average Londoners and New Yorkers going for a weekend shopping across the pond in Y cabin. Far from it, depending on the schedule taken Y cabin could often be fairly quiet. I often used to check rates verses UA etc and sometimes there could be barely £5 in difference which implies they were quite on the bone in that cabin. This highlights the slight flaw in the OPs title. What is meant by endless demand? If we review against the general demand by people on LON-DUB or MAD-BCN prior to the high speed rail on the route, then its difficult to compare even though a decent 3Mln took the LON - NYC route, but then that raises the next point. Is this O&D or transit? I've often transited through NYC to get to where I need to in Europe. Within reason I could just as easily have transited through PHL or IAD or FRA or LHR etc. LON - DXB was a bigger PAX route than NYC in 2018 with 8 a day packed out EK 380s and a couple of 777s, plus BA and VS chipping in with a few schedules. Not all that traffic stayed in Dubai, far from it,, and it could have routed via another hub instead. So does that mean there is endless demand on LON - DXB or LON - NYC?
 
hoons90
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 6:37 pm

Even at the height of tensions between Korea and Japan, Seoul-Tokyo had around 35x daily flights. Seoul-Osaka had close to 30x.

Seoul-Hong Kong, Bangkok had around 23x daily each and Seoul-Da Nang had around 20x daily.

Of course, due to COVID, these routes are down to 1-2x daily.
 
seat1a
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:50 pm

HNL-OGG ... on one airline.
 
flymia
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:30 am

Today, MIA/FLL-JFK/EWR/LGA has 78 flights. 91 if you include PBI.
 
vegasplanes
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:28 pm

LAS-LAX (or any of the Southern California stations)
 
blandy62
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Re: City Pairs with “Endless Demand”

Fri Jun 04, 2021 12:45 am

you will find a lot of those in Asia:

HND-CTS
HND-ITM
HND-FUK

GMP-CJU

HKG-TPE

CAN-PEK
SHA-PEK

JKT/HLP-SUB
JKT-SIN

HAN-SGN

a while back TSA-KHH was surely a winner too

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