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815253
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Would FR ever fly from the Canary Islands to Brazil?

Fri Aug 13, 2021 10:06 pm

The distance is less or slightly longer than the already served route TFS-NYO. So when the turnaround time in Brazil is low enough, they can fly it with the same flight crew. Of course it's required that FR (re)opens a base in LPA/TFS.

Image

Natal has a population of 890,000. Fortaleza 2.7 million. Tenerife 950,000 and Gran Canaria 870,000. Brazilians can enter whole Europe visa-free. And Europeans can enter Brazil visa-free (except Moldovans)

Flights between Brazil and Spain/Portugal start at around 200€-300€ one-way on days with rather low demand. Ryanair could do it in the best case for 2x 10€ :D

The crime rates in Natal and Fortaleza decreased significantly over the last decades. Having been in Natal this year it made a pretty safe impression in the quarters where most tourists stay, also at night.

What are the pros and cons that FR launches these routes? :)
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: Would FR ever fly from the Canary Islands to Brazil?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:53 am

One must never say never... but this seems highly unlikely

I am not clear how FR as an Irish airline would have traffic rights on such a set of routes. Opening a Spanish/Portuguese AOC increases cost and complexity, going against the FR business model
FR have long said they can't see how to make long haul to work profitably - see what happened to Norwegian
FR is a P2P airline - connecting flight risk is generally borne by passenger not airline
Demand from Brazil is to mainland Europe (ie very much requiring ling haul flights) - not the Canaries
There are still a very large number of opportunities in the European short haul market, a sector which is proven for them
Post Covid, long haul travel will take much longer to recover than short haul
The major Brazilian area of demand is to southern Brazil, not the north - making these routes out of range of a 737 with a single crew doing a round trip from the Canaries
I am not sure FR aircraft in general have the kit required for full trans-oceanic flight - thus creating a need for a special sub-fleet of aircraft, again increasing cost and complexity

Ryanair have had ample opportunity in the last 10 years to try flights between Ireland and N.America, as part of a 1-stop transatlantic strategy, a very large and wealthy potential market, but they decided not to go near it
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Would FR ever fly from the Canary Islands to Brazil?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 2:47 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
I am not clear how FR as an Irish airline would have traffic rights on such a set of routes.


They would likely have those rights since Ireland and Spain are both part of the EU. More specifically, they're both part of the European Common Aviation Area which allows any airline from any member country to operate out of any member country. In fact you could say that on an international level the whole ECAA is seen as one big country.

Therefor the problem wouldn't be on the Spanish side, Ryanair has the same rights there as they do in Ireland. But Brazil is not part of the open skies agreement, it's done with bilaterals and I'm not entirely sure how those bilaterals look. If it's an agreement between Brazil and the EU or the ECAA it's no problem, Ryanair would be included in the bilaterals. But it could be a bilateral agreement between Brazil and Spain in which case Ryanair would need fifth freedom rights.

On top of that I could imagine that, since this route mostly goes over sea, they would need ETOPS certifications for it. As far as I know Ryanair 737s are not ETOPS certified, after all there's no reason for that for flights within Europe.

At most I can see them fly to Cape Verde, which lies just south of the Canary Islands but that's as far as it goes. Cape Verde is easily within reach from the Canary Islands or even from mainland Europe, Transavia flies to Cape Verde from Amsterdam on a 737. As an upcoming holiday destination there's no reason Ryanair shouldn't be able to fly there. But only from Europe, they wouldn't have any rights to fly from there to Brazil.

What is a slim possibility for Ryanair is to open up a base in French Guyana which is part of France and therefor part of the EU / ECAA. From French Guyana they can cover just about all of Brazil and a good number of other South American and Caribbean destinations. But it would be a remote base, not connected to the rest of the network.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Would FR ever fly from the Canary Islands to Brazil?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:42 pm

Unlikely, ETOPS and crew hours (can't reliably out n back).
They'd make a mint on excess baggage though.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Would FR ever fly from the Canary Islands to Brazil?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 7:43 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
Unlikely, ETOPS and crew hours (can't reliably out n back).
They'd make a mint on excess baggage though.


I believe there are hotels in Brazil. ETOPS is an issue.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Would FR ever fly from the Canary Islands to Brazil?

Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:28 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
ChrisKen wrote:
Unlikely, ETOPS and crew hours (can't reliably out n back).
They'd make a mint on excess baggage though.


I believe there are hotels in Brazil. ETOPS is an issue.

Ryanair don't/won't keep crews away overnight. (and are just as unhelpful as they are with their customers when their poor crews do time out).
 
815253
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Re: Would FR ever fly from the Canary Islands to Brazil?

Sun Aug 15, 2021 2:22 am

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Ryanair have had ample opportunity in the last 10 years to try flights between Ireland and N.America


Europe<>US is very competitive. As not having widebodies or the A321LR, FR cannot have so many routes. The legacy carriers would lower their prices on that few routes that FR can offer. There was an addition of range from the 737-800 to MAX8, but FR opted to get more seats inside instead of that additional range.

Also it could be difficult to get US approval as FR can be blamed to not meet US working conditions. The approval for Norwegian flights took time. And for Norse some US politicians were against an approval of their US routes.

davidjohnson6 wrote:
There are still a very large number of opportunities in the European short haul market


Hm FR stimulates the demand mostly due to their low fares. When their newest announced routes can make it into profitablity, flying to Brazil should make it also.

PatrickZ80 wrote:
I can see them fly to Cape Verde


That's a start :)

ChrisKen wrote:
crew hours (can't reliably out n back).


Did that happen to FR from time to time between the Canary Islands and Stockholm/Oslo?

I mean for the Brazil routes it looks like they can fly a straight line. No detours like in the European airspace. It's one flight and back in an uncrowded airspace, without W-pattern risks. TFS-FOR and TFS-NAT are slightly shorter than already served TFS-NYO. And LPA/TFS/NAT/FOR don't operate at their capacity limits.

Maybe because of bad weather conditions? Or difficulties at the implementation of the 25 minute turnaround time? ;)

From TFS/LPA to Fernando de Noronha is shorter. But therefore the demand would be surely too low...

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PatrickZ80
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Re: Would FR ever fly from the Canary Islands to Brazil?

Sun Aug 15, 2021 7:43 am

airlinenavigato wrote:
From TFS/LPA to Fernando de Noronha is shorter. But therefore the demand would be surely too low...


Not only that, but Fernando de Noronha airport has a very short runway. It's only 1845 meters which is barely enough for a 737 to take off and certainly not for a flight as long as to the Canary Islands. On top of that, it's not an international airport. There are no customs facilities, it's allowed to handle domestic flights only.

Demand would be the least of their problem, that can be generated by offering low fares. But technically it just wouldn't be possible.
 
Jutlander
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Re: Would FR ever fly from the Canary Islands to Brazil?

Sun Aug 15, 2021 9:14 am

I don't think FR is the right airline to look at here. If you want a Euro LCC to fly those routes I think W6 would be a more logical candidate, they're more adventurous expanding into new markets. FR is more conservative and wants to grow by making it's European network more dense.

Also W6 has the A321XLR on order which is perfect for these type of routes. It's also ETOPS certified so crossing the pond is not a problem.
 
815253
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Re: Would FR ever fly from the Canary Islands to Brazil?

Sun Aug 15, 2021 5:25 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Opening a Spanish AOC increases cost and complexity


They already have an Irish, Maltese and UK AOC and used an Austrian.

PatrickZ80 wrote:
Not only that, but Fernando de Noronha airport has a very short runway. It's only 1845 meters which is barely enough for a 737 to take off and certainly not for a flight as long as to the Canary Islands. On top of that, it's not an international airport. There are no customs facilities, it's allowed to handle domestic flights only.

Demand would be the least of their problem, that can be generated by offering low fares. But technically it just wouldn't be possible.


I see.

Jutlander wrote:
I don't think FR is the right airline to look at here. If you want a Euro LCC to fly those routes I think W6 would be a more logical candidate, they're more adventurous expanding into new markets. FR is more conservative and wants to grow by making it's European network more dense.

Also W6 has the A321XLR on order which is perfect for these type of routes. It's also ETOPS certified so crossing the pond is not a problem.


Okay. Wizz Air said they don't want to go transatlantic. But maybe that was only regarding flying to the US. For flying from TFS/LPA, Wizz needs a base in there.

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