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jplatts
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Any possibility of AA adding SEA-CTS using an A321XLR?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 1:08 am

SEA-CTS is likely in the range of A321XLR planes with the distance of SEA-CTS being 4,390 miles and with the published range of the A321XLR being 5,408 miles.

A slide from an Airbus presentation (which can be found at https://simpleflying.com/airbus-a321xlr-post-covid-19-aviation/) had mentioned the possibility of operating A321XLR's on routes longer than SEA-CTS such as EZE-MIA (4,406 miles), CPT-DXB (4,735 miles), IAH-SCL (4,645 miles), and SYD-NRT (4,846 miles).

There would be connecting opportunities to some other Japanese destinations such as AXT, AOJ, FUK, HNA, HIJ, MMB, NGO, KIJ, ITM, KIX, and SDJ at CTS if AA adds SEA-CTS nonstop service.

AA's partner CX also serves HKG nonstop from CTS, and there might be connecting opportunities onto CX HKG-CTS nonstop flights from the U.S. if AA adds SEA-CTS nonstop service.

AA would also be able to connect passengers onto SEA-CTS from AS flights out of SEA if AA adds SEA-CTS nonstop service.

AA adding SEA-CTS nonstop service would also allow passengers to connect to a few Japanese cities north of Greater Tokyo such as Akita, Aomori, Hanamaki, Niigata, and Sendai without having to backtrack through HND or NRT.
 
johns624
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Re: Any possibility of AA adding SEA-CTS using an A321XLR?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 1:54 am

Is it a large enough market? Just because it's "in range", doesn't make it economically doable. All those other markets you mentioned are major city pairs while Chitose is only around 100K.
 
jplatts
Topic Author
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Re: Any possibility of AA adding SEA-CTS using an A321XLR?

Wed Nov 10, 2021 12:55 pm

johns624 wrote:
Is it a large enough market? Just because it's "in range", doesn't make it economically doable. All those other markets you mentioned are major city pairs while Chitose is only around 100K.


Sapporo is the 5th largest city in Japan (by city proper population), after Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, and Nagoya.

There would be some connecting traffic to major Japanese cities that don't currently have any nonstop service from the contiguous U.S. such as Fukuoka and Hiroshima on SEA-CTS nonstop flights if SEA-CTS nonstop service is added. There is also some business travel to Hiroshima from North America with a few global companies such as Mazda, Molten, and Mikasa having their headquarters in Hiroshima (even though that demand is likely already covered with the connecting options that are already there to HIJ from the contiguous U.S. through TYO).

The addition of SEA-CTS nonstop service would likely stimulate economic development in Hokkaido, the Tohoku region, and the Shin'etsu region with the easier access that would be there to Hokkaido, the Tohoku region, and the Shin'etsu region from the contiguous U.S.
 
Fuling
Posts: 418
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 4:41 am

Re: Any possibility of AA adding SEA-CTS using an A321XLR?

Thu Nov 11, 2021 5:23 am

It just doesn't make sense. All of the places you've mentioned can be accessed via TYO. Think of the other end too. This flight also would only really cater to SEA and it's regional catchment traffic, as passengers to/from anywhere else in North America will simply travel on other flights via TYO or KIX, rather than with an extra stop in SEA. Plus, there really aren't that many travellers between regional Tohoku/Hokkaido and SEA/catchment.

Then you have to look at business class. Is there a case for that?

I'd say AA are more likely to add DFW to KIX, and even then I am very doubtful.
 
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CarlosSi
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Re: Any possibility of AA adding SEA-CTS using an A321XLR?

Sat Nov 13, 2021 4:52 am

Assuming the flight is really just for tourism and VFR, the flight could survive being twice or thrice weekly.... maybe just seasonally.
 
SFOThinker
Posts: 202
Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2014 4:13 pm

Re: Any possibility of AA adding SEA-CTS using an A321XLR?

Sun Nov 21, 2021 12:31 pm

Yes, it is frustrating for residents of Hokkaido and Tohoku to backtrack to Tokyo to travel across the Pacific, but I don’t see a viable market. Hokkaido’s economy is not very strong and there are not many big companies with headquarters there, so not much premium demand. The other big city north of Tokyo beside Sapporo, Sendai, is not too far from Tokyo so the backtrack is not too bothersome.
 
Max Q
Posts: 9145
Joined: Wed May 09, 2001 12:40 pm

Re: Any possibility of AA adding SEA-CTS using an A321XLR?

Sun Nov 21, 2021 8:24 pm

It’s more technically relevant to use nautical miles in measuring distance in aviation

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