While I probably do not expect WN to return to DAY anytime soon, WN returning to DAY in a few years from now might be a possibility with DAY being one of the top markets in the U.S. that isn't currently served by WN.
WN had re-entered IAH and JAN earlier this year, with WN having also added some new nonstop routes out of both IAH and JAN such as IAH-MDW/DEN/BNA/LAS/MCO and JAN-ATL.
The DAY catchment area (which includes the Dayton-Springfield-Kettering CSA, the Lima-Van Wert-Celina CSA, the Richmond-Connersville (IN) CSA, and Preble County) has a population of over 1.4 million people.
ANC, XNA, GSO, MSN, and TYS are the only U.S. markets without WN service that carried more domestic passengers in 2019 than DAY did.
While BWI, MDW, and TPA no longer have any nonstop service from DAY, most of the markets that WN previously served nonstop from DAY still have nonstop service out of DAY on other airlines with AA operating DAY-ORD/DCA nonstop service, UA operating DAY-ORD/DEN/IAD nonstop service, and G4 operating DAY-SFB/PIE nonstop service.
Is WN likely to return to DAY in the late 2020's? What routes would WN likely resume out of DAY if WN re-enters DAY?
Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
Re: Any possibility of WN returning to DAY in the late 2020's?
DAY is smack in the middle between CVG, CMH, IND, and SDF. SWA has been adding more leisure-based new destinations (i.e. HDN and BZN) and doubling down on metros where they have hubs (ORD, IAH, and MIA). DAY is sizeable, but not much leisure nor business to fill a 737 right now. Not saying it won't happen, but there's lower fruit to pick, at least during covid. JAN, I believe, was more or less a political move.
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- DaCubbyBearBar
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Re: Any possibility of WN returning to DAY in the late 2020's?
Of course jplatts…the answer is yes. They could also re-enter BPT, DET, MEX, TYS, LEX, MDT, BMI, ACY, HSV, CAK, EYW, MLI, BKG, EWR, SWF, HPN, CHS, PHF, DFW, ABE, AVL, and FNT
Re: Any possibility of WN returning to DAY in the late 2020's?
After WN (and F9) moved their operations from DAY to CVG, I began lobbying for NK to inaugurate service to DAY. That never happened, nor does it ever seem likely to. However, I believe that Breeze (MX) is a good candidate to serve DAY, especially once CoVid-19 goes away (if it ever does!).
Re: Any possibility of WN returning to DAY in the late 2020's?
SkyVoice wrote:However, I believe that Breeze (MX) is a good candidate to serve DAY, especially once CoVid-19 goes away (if it ever does!).
I agree that MX adding service to DAY is a possibility, even though MX doesn't currently serve some of the markets that WN, F9, or FL previously served nonstop from DAY such as BWI, DEN, and MCO.
Re: Any possibility of WN returning to DAY in the late 2020's?
DaCubbyBearBar wrote:Of course jplatts…the answer is yes. They could also re-enter BPT, DET, MEX, TYS, LEX, MDT, BMI, ACY, HSV, CAK, EYW, MLI, BKG, EWR, SWF, HPN, CHS, PHF, DFW, ABE, AVL, and FNT
Re: Any possibility of WN returning to DAY in the late 2020's?
TWA772LR wrote:DAY is smack in the middle between CVG, CMH, IND, and SDF. SWA has been adding more leisure-based new destinations (i.e. HDN and BZN) and doubling down on metros where they have hubs (ORD, IAH, and MIA). DAY is sizeable, but not much leisure nor business to fill a 737 right now. Not saying it won't happen, but there's lower fruit to pick, at least during covid.
WN CEO Gary Kelly had recently said in an interview that "Beyond that, I'll bet you there's 50 more cities that we can add to our route network in the USA" (according to an article titled "Gary Kelly, Southwest Airlines, and the Texas tavern where it all began" that can be found at https://www.khou.com/article/news/polit ... 55a193461a), and DAY is one of the markets that WN could return to with DAY being one of the top markets in the U.S. that isn't currently served by WN.
jplatts....what constitutes DAY as a "top market?"
To compare what AA flies in/out of DAY, what are the markets that WN would tap into?
AA flies nonstops from DAY to PHL, DCA, LGA, ORD, CLT and DFW. All are flown on CR7/9, E145 or E175 regional class airplanes.
No nonstop service to MIA and PHX hubs, and no nonstop to top FL cities common to WN......MCO/FLL/TPA.
DL flies nonstops to ATL and DTW with their regional partner Endeavor.
So you really expect WN to commit aircraft almost double in capacity to a competitor to run how many frequencies a day to MDW, DAL, BNA, STL, HOU, DEN and a MCO, TPA, FLL/MIA? And it be profitable on a consistent basis?
Anyone of us could likely pick 50 cities we'd like to see airline service start or expand, but are they viable locations that make business sense?
You provide a lot of detailed statistical information on WN passenger numbers and load factors in cities that is informative and useful, and I thank you for that effort, but I'm less inclined to understand these frequent "what ifs" you submit without much to support a proposal or discussion. I assume WN had historical traffic figures from FL at the time of the merger, and determined DAY was not a viable market WN could support with a large capacity fleet of airplanes. As shown, the growth occurred in CMH, CVG, IND, PIT and SDF.
To compare what AA flies in/out of DAY, what are the markets that WN would tap into?
AA flies nonstops from DAY to PHL, DCA, LGA, ORD, CLT and DFW. All are flown on CR7/9, E145 or E175 regional class airplanes.
No nonstop service to MIA and PHX hubs, and no nonstop to top FL cities common to WN......MCO/FLL/TPA.
DL flies nonstops to ATL and DTW with their regional partner Endeavor.
So you really expect WN to commit aircraft almost double in capacity to a competitor to run how many frequencies a day to MDW, DAL, BNA, STL, HOU, DEN and a MCO, TPA, FLL/MIA? And it be profitable on a consistent basis?
Anyone of us could likely pick 50 cities we'd like to see airline service start or expand, but are they viable locations that make business sense?
You provide a lot of detailed statistical information on WN passenger numbers and load factors in cities that is informative and useful, and I thank you for that effort, but I'm less inclined to understand these frequent "what ifs" you submit without much to support a proposal or discussion. I assume WN had historical traffic figures from FL at the time of the merger, and determined DAY was not a viable market WN could support with a large capacity fleet of airplanes. As shown, the growth occurred in CMH, CVG, IND, PIT and SDF.
Re:
PI4EVR wrote:jplatts....what constitutes DAY as a "top market?"
DAY was the #6 market by number of domestic passengers in 2019 that isn't served by WN as ANC, XNA, GSO, MSN, and TYS were the only markets in the U.S. not currently served by WN that carried more domestic passengers in 2019 than DAY did.
The Dayton-Springfield-Kettering, OH Combined Statistical Area is the 4th largest CSA by population (after the Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point CSA, the Harrisburg-York-Lebanon CSA, and the Knoxville-Morristown-Sevierville CSA) that isn't currently served by WN.
Re:
PI4EVR wrote:To compare what AA flies in/out of DAY, what are the markets that WN would tap into?
AA flies nonstops from DAY to PHL, DCA, LGA, ORD, CLT and DFW. All are flown on CR7/9, E145 or E175 regional class airplanes.
DL flies nonstops to ATL and DTW with their regional partner Endeavor.
So you really expect WN to commit aircraft almost double in capacity to a competitor to run how many frequencies a day to MDW, DAL, BNA, STL, HOU, DEN and a MCO, TPA, FLL/MIA? And it be profitable on a consistent basis?
If WN does re-enter DAY, I probably would expect WN to re-add DAY-BWI/DEN/MDW nonstop service.
WN re-adding DAY-MCO nonstop service on at least a seasonal basis might also be a possibility if WN re-enters DAY as MCO no longer has any nonstop service from DAY.
I would probably also expect DAY to be a small WN station if WN re-enters DAY (similar to what WN had at DAY in 2015 plus DAY-MDW nonstop service).
The driving distance between the CVG airport terminal and the DAY airport terminal is 78.5 miles, which is slightly longer than the driving distance between the AUS airport terminal and the SAT airport terminal, which is 77.4 miles. Even though the DAY vs. CVG situation is similar to that of SAT vs. AUS (separate markets, separate metro areas, and similar distances between the airports), SAT is in a much bigger market than DAY (by both metropolitan area population and demand for commercial air travel).
The BUF airport and the ROC airport are closer by driving distance than CVG airport and DAY airport are, with the driving distance between the BUF airport terminal and ROC airport terminal being 61.2 miles. Both BUF and ROC still have WN service, unlike DAY which had lost WN service when WN started service out of CVG in June 2017.
WN would also likely market DAY differently if it re-enters DAY, with WN focusing on serving the local DAY market and points north of Greater Dayton in Western Ohio.
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