BA’s 17 Super High-J 744 had 275 seats, there 16 77Ws currently have 254 seats and there 18 779s on order will have 325 seats. Given that the 779 has 50 seats more then the Super High-J 744. Where will BA fly the 779 to? Will they be used on cargo-heavy routes currently served by the 77W or will they be used on former Super High-J 744 routes? Any thoughts?

UA857 wrote:

BA’s 17 Super High-J 744 had 275 seats, there 16 77Ws currently have 254 seats and there 18 779s on order will have 325 seats. Given that the 779 has 50 seats more then the Super High-J 744. Where will BA fly the 779 to? Will they be used on cargo-heavy routes currently served by the 77W or will they be used on former Super High-J 744 routes? Any thoughts?

The 779 layout is 8F65W46C206Y, which is very close to the 77W layout (14F56C44W185Y), just swapping some First capacity for more Club World suites.

The 779 seems perfect for high-yielding longhaul routes that have more premium demand than the 78X, but not enough to justify an A380. I think it will take the place of the SHJ 744, and the extra belly cargo will certainly be a net positive.

If I were to guess, I'd say the 779 would be operated to;

• JFK/EWR (JFK T8 and EWR cannot handle the A380, I think the 779 will be mixed in with the 78X and 77W)
• BOS
• Morning flights to SFO/LAX
• ORD
• DFW
• MIA
• SEA (78X/779 mix)
• MEX
• GRU
• EZE
• LOS
• JNB
• DXB (35K/779 mix once Dubai returns to triple daily)
• KWI
• RUH
• DEL
• BOM (or 789)
• HND
• PEK

HKG, SIN, SYD and IAD would probably remain A380 routes. BKK, PHX, ISB, NBO and BLR would be 789; ABV, LHE, MAA, HYD, LAS, BNA, BWI, CHS and PDX would be 788; ACC, TLV, SAN, YYZ and YVR would be 35K. These assumptions are based on the eventual 772 retirements.

Now I have a question of my own. How is BA able to sustain double daily (77W and 388) to Miami? I thought there wasn't much business O&D demand, considering south FL's economy is mostly tourism-driven.

Don’t the 779 have 50 extra seats then the SHJ 744?

UA857 wrote:

Don’t the 779 have 50 extra seats then the SHJ 744?

50, not 75. SHJ 744 has 275 seats, 779 has 325 seats.

The 779 trades First and CW capacity for more WTP (30->46, 16 more) and WT seats (145->20, 61 more)

Ever since 9/11 and 2008, companies have been cutting back on premium travel budgets, while at the same time premium economy has seen enormous growth. Don't forget that the 779 has two fewer engines than the 744, and they're highly efficient GE9X engines instead of the RB211-524H from 1988 (and the RB211 dates back to 1972).

• JFK/EWR (JFK T8 and EWR cannot handle the A380, I think the 779 will be mixed in with the 78X and 77W)
• BOS
• Morning flights to SFO/LAX
• ORD
• DFW
• MIA
• SEA (78X/779 mix)
• MEX
• GRU
• EZE
• LOS
• JNB
• DXB (35K/779 mix once Dubai returns to triple daily)
• KWI
• RUH
• DEL
• BOM (or 789)
• HND
• PEK

Does BA have enough 779s for these routes? BA only has 18 firm orders for the 779.

Will BA take their 18 A35K options and 24 779 options? With the recent surge in travel demand could BA convert their 18 A35Ks options to firm orders as an interim solution for the 779 and then transfer the A35K orders to IB once the 779 is operational?

UA857 wrote:

Will BA take their 18 A35K options and 24 779 options? With the recent surge in travel demand could BA convert their 18 A35Ks options to firm orders as an interim solution for the 779 and then transfer the A35K orders to IB once the 779 is operational?

BA has also recently acquired 6 78X options

By the time B779 arrives, would A380 still be in the fleet? Maybe B779 will eventually replace A380?

I mean my hunch is that BA has some nice credits from Boeing for the 777X delays and will likely get more, hence the 787-10 option acquisition. I think they’ll take them eventually but I can see a scenario where the 787 options are exercised as a stop gap for the capacity deficit from delayed 777-9s

chonetsao wrote:

By the time B779 arrives, would A380 still be in the fleet? Maybe B779 will eventually replace A380?

I think that´s the way they will take...

Opus99 wrote:

I mean my hunch is that BA has some nice credits from Boeing for the 777X delays and will likely get more, hence the 787-10 option acquisition. I think they’ll take them eventually but I can see a scenario where the 787 options are exercised as a stop gap for the capacity deficit from delayed 777-9s

That would be slightly ironic as, if my memory serves me rightly, BA acquired some of their early 773ERs through a deal with Boeing arising from the delays in the 787 programme.

jumpjets wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

I mean my hunch is that BA has some nice credits from Boeing for the 777X delays and will likely get more, hence the 787-10 option acquisition. I think they’ll take them eventually but I can see a scenario where the 787 options are exercised as a stop gap for the capacity deficit from delayed 777-9s

That would be slightly ironic as, if my memory serves me rightly, BA acquired some of their early 773ERs through a deal with Boeing arising from the delays in the 787 programme.

That is Exactly correct

Hey guys,
Slight correction to a post up thread….
Sydney isn’t and has never been a British Airways A380 destination.
We are currently getting daily 787-9 flights via Singapore… pre-pandemic we were getting 777-300ERs, which in turn had replaced 747-400s.
I’m not sure that BA would swap out the Dreamliners now … I would love to see 777s back in the route, but I haven’t heard anything about the 777-9 operating time Sydney in the years to come.
Take care,
Bunumuring.

Opus99 wrote:

I mean my hunch is that BA has some nice credits from Boeing for the 777X delays and will likely get more, hence the 787-10 option acquisition. I think they’ll take them eventually but I can see a scenario where the 787 options are exercised as a stop gap for the capacity deficit from delayed 777-9s

With ongoing delays with the 787 and 777X. I think it would be better if BA convert its 18 A35K options into firm orders as a stopgap measure as the A35Ks can be transferred to IB as an A346 replacement once the 779 arrives.

UA857 wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

I mean my hunch is that BA has some nice credits from Boeing for the 777X delays and will likely get more, hence the 787-10 option acquisition. I think they’ll take them eventually but I can see a scenario where the 787 options are exercised as a stop gap for the capacity deficit from delayed 777-9s

With ongoing delays with the 787 and 777X. I think it would be better if BA convert its 18 A35K options into firm orders as a stopgap measure.. Once the 779s becomes fully operational the extra A35Ks can be transferred to IB as an A346 replacement.

They very well could. That would be the more expensive option though given the credits BA will have with boeing.

Assuming 787 deliveries resume in the summer (big hopefully there) you might get a situation where there isn’t really a time benefit between 787 and 350. I believe the options BA currently has are post 2024

Let’s see anyway

Will BA be able to interchange pilots between a 77E/77W and the 779 or will the 779 have its own pilot pool?

Opus99 wrote:

UA857 wrote:

Will BA take their 18 A35K options and 24 779 options? With the recent surge in travel demand could BA convert their 18 A35Ks options to firm orders as an interim solution for the 779 and then transfer the A35K orders to IB once the 779 is operational?

BA has also recently acquired 6 78X options

BA should replace its 744s with 779 and its 77Es with 78J (the HGW version) and A359s. The 78J can replace the 4-class 77Es while the A359 can replace the 3-class LHR-based 77Es. Maybe overtime they can move some 77Es from LHR to LGW as the LGW 77Es are so low on the replacement priority.

UA857 wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

UA857 wrote:

Will BA take their 18 A35K options and 24 779 options? With the recent surge in travel demand could BA convert their 18 A35Ks options to firm orders as an interim solution for the 779 and then transfer the A35K orders to IB once the 779 is operational?

BA has also recently acquired 6 78X options

BA should replace its 744s with 779 and its 77Es with 78J (the HGW version) and A359s. The 78J can replace the 4-class 77Es while the A359 can replace the 3-class LHR-based 77Es. Maybe overtime they can move some 77Es from LHR to LGW as the LGW 77Es are so low on the replacement priority.

I agree with this. I think that’s what BA might do. Also keeps both OEMs honest

I would predict they'll go to the biggest and high-profile US cities, plus YYZ and YVR, DXB, SIN, HKG, China, NRT/HND. I don't see them being A380 replacements in the short or medium term, but when the whales are put out to pasture and you need size, you only have one option.

UA857 wrote:

With ongoing delays with the 787 and 777X. I think it would be better if BA convert its 18 A35K options into firm orders as a stopgap measure as the A35Ks can be transferred to IB as an A346 replacement once the 779 arrives.

IB has elected to replace the A346 with the A359, so I don't see a need. Wouldn't make much sense to have an aircraft configured for BA but then reconfigured soon after. If BA order more A35Ks then they will be for BA only. I actually don't foresee the A359 at BA, so the A35K may be the 77E replacement in some capacity.

chonetsao wrote:

By the time B779 arrives, would A380 still be in the fleet? Maybe B779 will eventually replace A380?

BA hold onto aircraft for the long term, the only scenario I could see the A380s being gone before the 779 arrives is a complete catastrophe for the 779, and though the programme has its problems it's utterly unthinkable that it would get to that stage. In the long term though: what other options are there for A380 replacements?

MrHMSH wrote:

I would predict they'll go to the biggest and high-profile US cities, plus YYZ and YVR, DXB, SIN, HKG, China, NRT/HND. I don't see them being A380 replacements in the short or medium term, but when the whales are put out to pasture and you need size, you only have one option.

UA857 wrote:

With ongoing delays with the 787 and 777X. I think it would be better if BA convert its 18 A35K options into firm orders as a stopgap measure as the A35Ks can be transferred to IB as an A346 replacement once the 779 arrives.

IB has elected to replace the A346 with the A359, so I don't see a need. Wouldn't make much sense to have an aircraft configured for BA but then reconfigured soon after. If BA order more A35Ks then they will be for BA only. I actually don't foresee the A359 at BA, so the A35K may be the 77E replacement in some capacity.

IB has 10 A359s on order but they used to have 39 A340s 21 A343 and 18 A346s. While the 20 A359s could replace the A343, what the A35K could do is replace the A346 1:1. Also couldn’t ordering the A359 to replace some of the 77E increase the commonality of the A35K fleet?

MrHMSH wrote:

I would predict they'll go to the biggest and high-profile US cities, plus YYZ and YVR, DXB, SIN, HKG, China, NRT/HND. I don't see them being A380 replacements in the short or medium term, but when the whales are put out to pasture and you need size, you only have one option.

UA857 wrote:

With ongoing delays with the 787 and 777X. I think it would be better if BA convert its 18 A35K options into firm orders as a stopgap measure as the A35Ks can be transferred to IB as an A346 replacement once the 779 arrives.

IB has elected to replace the A346 with the A359, so I don't see a need. Wouldn't make much sense to have an aircraft configured for BA but then reconfigured soon after. If BA order more A35Ks then they will be for BA only. I actually don't foresee the A359 at BA, so the A35K may be the 77E replacement in some capacity.

My prediction for 779 routes:
JFK
SFO
LAX
ORD
DFW
MIA
BOS
DXB
RUH
LOS
JNB
DEL
PEK
PVG
HKG
SIN/SYD
HND

YYZ, YVR, LAS and BOM can be flown by an A35K. Post-COVID I expect LHR-JFK to be flown by 77E/77W/78J/779.

UA857 wrote:

MrHMSH wrote:

I would predict they'll go to the biggest and high-profile US cities, plus YYZ and YVR, DXB, SIN, HKG, China, NRT/HND. I don't see them being A380 replacements in the short or medium term, but when the whales are put out to pasture and you need size, you only have one option.

UA857 wrote:

With ongoing delays with the 787 and 777X. I think it would be better if BA convert its 18 A35K options into firm orders as a stopgap measure as the A35Ks can be transferred to IB as an A346 replacement once the 779 arrives.

IB has elected to replace the A346 with the A359, so I don't see a need. Wouldn't make much sense to have an aircraft configured for BA but then reconfigured soon after. If BA order more A35Ks then they will be for BA only. I actually don't foresee the A359 at BA, so the A35K may be the 77E replacement in some capacity.

IB has 10 A359s on order but they used to have 39 A340s 21 A343 and 18 A346s. While the 20 A359s could replace the A343, what the A35K could do is replace the A346 1:1. Also couldn’t ordering the A359 to replace some of the 77E increase the commonality of the A35K fleet?

IB seem happy with the slight downgauge, if there was room for the A35K they'd have shown interest, but there has been next to none. A330s have effectively replaced the A343, and a slight downgauged to right-sized aircraft seems to be working well for them.

BA could add the A359 with minimal fuss, but I don't see what if offers that the 787 and A35K don't or won't. Barely any routes scream 'too busy for 789, too far for 78X and not busy enough for A35K'.

UA857 wrote:

UA857 wrote:

My prediction for 779 routes:
JFK
SFO
LAX
ORD
DFW
MIA
BOS
DXB
RUH
LOS
JNB
DEL
PEK
PVG
HKG
SIN/SYD
HND

YYZ, YVR, LAS and BOM can be flown by an A35K. Post-COVID I expect LHR-JFK to be flown by 77E/77W/78J/779.

Correction for 779 routes:
JFK
SFO
LAX
ORD
DFW
BOS
MIA
DXB
RUH
KWI
LOS
JNB
HND
PKX
PVG
HKG
SIN/SYD

LAS, PHX, DEN, MCO, YVR, YYZ, MEX, GRU, GIG, LIM, SCL, EZE, TLV, ACC, CPT, DXB, BLR and BKK can be done by the A35K.

Does 16 77Ws + 12 A380s + 18 A35Ks + 18 779s make up for the total BA 744 capacity?

UA857 wrote:

UA857 wrote:

UA857 wrote:

My prediction for 779 routes:
JFK
SFO
LAX
ORD
DFW
MIA
BOS
DXB
RUH
LOS
JNB
DEL
PEK
PVG
HKG
SIN/SYD
HND

YYZ, YVR, LAS and BOM can be flown by an A35K. Post-COVID I expect LHR-JFK to be flown by 77E/77W/78J/779.

Correction for 779 routes:
JFK
SFO
LAX
ORD
DFW
BOS
MIA
DXB
RUH
KWI
LOS
JNB
HND
PKX
PVG
HKG
SIN/SYD

LAS, PHX, DEN, MCO, YVR, YYZ, MEX, GRU, GIG, LIM, SCL, EZE, TLV, ACC, CPT, DXB, BLR and BKK can be done by the A35K.

I would have thought MEX, DXB, BLR and Brazil/Argentina were premium-heavy routes. Do you think these routes will get the 789/78X or 77W instead of the 779?

Also, I was under the impression that Miami traffic was tourist-heavy, lacking the premium demand that JFK/EWR, SFO or IAD have. How is MIA able to sustain enough premium demand from LHR to justify a 779/388? This isn't meant as an insult, I just don't know much about South Florida's economy.

I was surprised to see BA return to SYD, even with the downgauge from 77W to 789. A 779 would only ever happen as a tag on SIN.

leftcoast8 wrote:

UA857 wrote:

UA857 wrote:

My prediction for 779 routes:
JFK
SFO
LAX
ORD
DFW
MIA
BOS
DXB
RUH
LOS
JNB
DEL
PEK
PVG
HKG
SIN/SYD
HND

YYZ, YVR, LAS and BOM can be flown by an A35K. Post-COVID I expect LHR-JFK to be flown by 77E/77W/78J/779.

Correction for 779 routes:
JFK
SFO
LAX
ORD
DFW
BOS
MIA
DXB
RUH
KWI
LOS
JNB
HND
PKX
PVG
HKG
SIN/SYD

LAS, PHX, DEN, MCO, YVR, YYZ, MEX, GRU, GIG, LIM, SCL, EZE, TLV, ACC, CPT, DXB, BLR and BKK can be done by the A35K.

I would have thought MEX, DXB, BLR and Brazil/Argentina were premium-heavy routes. Do you think these routes will get the 789/78X or 77W instead of the 779?

Also, I was under the impression that Miami traffic was tourist-heavy, lacking the premium demand that JFK/EWR, SFO or IAD have. How is MIA able to sustain enough premium demand from LHR to justify a 779/388? This isn't meant as an insult, I just don't know much about South Florida's economy.

BA could use the 779s for premium demand routes and the A35K for leisure demand routes. If anything the 779s are perfect for:

LHR:

JFK, BOS, IAD, ORD, DFW, SFO, LAX, DXB, RUH, KWI, LOS, JNB, DEL, HKG, SIN, PKX, PVG, HND

While the A35K could be used on:

LHR:

MIA, MCO, DEN, PHX, LAS, YYZ, YVR, MEX, GRU, GIG, EZE, SCL, LIM, TLV, DXB, ACC, CPT, BLR

IAH has been double daily 747s before. Once everything rebounds, it's not inconceivable to have at least 1 A35J, 779, or even A380 in there.

Former B747-400 routes?

bunumuring wrote:

Hey guys,
Slight correction to a post up thread….
Sydney isn’t and has never been a British Airways A380 destination.
We are currently getting daily 787-9 flights via Singapore… pre-pandemic we were getting 777-300ERs, which in turn had replaced 747-400s.
I’m not sure that BA would swap out the Dreamliners now … I would love to see 777s back in the route, but I haven’t heard anything about the 777-9 operating time Sydney in the years to come.
Take care,
Bunumuring.

I believe the 777 was taken off the route because there isn’t enough -300ER frames whilst they’re being refit with the 76J config. Once that is completed by end of 2022, I could see the 77W returning to SIN/SYD. Especially as SIN is a high freight route and the 789 can be better utilised elsewhere on the route network once SE Asia opens up more.

UAUA wrote:

Former B747-400 routes?

The majority of those are better suited (and currently are being operated) with the A350 due to the high Y config. Especially LAS, SAN, PHX & DEN.

The 77W (and upcoming 779) are too premium heavy for what the 747 Mid J config previously operated.