Apparently, EK has now recovered all it's pre-pandemic routes and frequencies (save Lagos because of forex controls).
Where do you think they could head next either as a tag-on to existing routes, or new service?
My money is on:
Dubai-Douala- Libreville
Dubai-Kinshasa-Brazzaville
Dubai-Accra-Lome/Cotonou (tag-on in addition to daily service continuing to Abidjan). There has been some speculation that EK could go more than 1x daily to ACC but I do not see it being a standalone service on a 777.

Could we also see existing Entebbe service extended to small but fast growing Kigali?

What do you think?

ghdc10 wrote:

Apparently, EK has now recovered all it's pre-pandemic routes and frequencies

Yeah, that's not true at all.

Just wondering, what is the demand like for flights to Congo? I'm no expert about Africa, but the media has a lot of negative potrayal of the DRC and how unsafe it is, which in my opinion could impact the load factor and yield of a lot of international flights there from a lot of countries. Regardless of this, I don't know if there is much business or tourist demand there because of its rep, and the fact that there are many other economic centers in that general area such as LAD which may attract a larger market, but I don't know.

Then again, Congo-Brazzaville is an OPEC member and I've heard PNR is a hotspot for oil rigs so maybe that could be a driver? But then again why would EK want to route through FIH? Just wondering, I'm no expert

ghdc10 wrote:

Apparently, EK has now recovered all it's pre-pandemic routes and frequencies (save Lagos because of forex controls).
Where do you think they could head next either as a tag-on to existing routes, or new service?

DXB-MPM-GBE is almost certainly the next route. It was meant to be launched during 2020, but for obvious reasons it was not.

DXB-BKO-DKR-DXB was also planned at one point, but never launched.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -oct-2015/

FZ once flew DXB-EBB-FIH. I think crew security is the main concern with EK flying any FIH route.

There has been some speculation that EK could go more than 1x daily to ACC but I do not see it being a standalone service on a 777.

EK was meant to go 11 times weekly in 2019. I don't think these flights ever went ahead.

Emirates will also augment its current flight frequency to the Ghanaian capital with four additional Boeing 777-300ER flights a week bringing Emirates’ total service to 11 weekly flights to Accra effective 02 June 2019.

https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... -for-2019/

Flight timings were supposed to be:

EK789 DXB330 735ACC
EK790 ACC1045 2245DXB

Over covid, EK was flying plenty of DXB-ACC-GRU/VCP flights with preighter aircraft. I doubt there would be enough traffic to justify launching a regularly scheduled passenger service though.

Boeing757100 wrote:

Just wondering, what is the demand like for flights to Congo? I'm no expert about Africa, but the media has a lot of negative potrayal of the DRC and how unsafe it is, which in my opinion could impact the load factor and yield of a lot of international flights there from a lot of countries. Regardless of this, I don't know if there is much business or tourist demand there because of its rep, and the fact that there are many other economic centers in that general area such as LAD which may attract a larger market, but I don't know.

Then again, Congo-Brazzaville is an OPEC member and I've heard PNR is a hotspot for oil rigs so maybe that could be a driver? But then again why would EK want to route through FIH? Just wondering, I'm no expert

Back in the day there were some fascinating TRs of trips to/from FIH. From what I've read, Kinshasa certainly has it's issues but it's a massive city that has relatively limited air service (just 2-3 flights per week to Europe maybe?). So there is definitely some demand. Fares are (were?) usually high too.

ghdc10 wrote:

Apparently, EK has now recovered all it's pre-pandemic routes and frequencies (save Lagos because of forex controls).
Where do you think they could head next either as a tag-on to existing routes, or new service?
My money is on:
Dubai-Douala- Libreville
Dubai-Kinshasa-Brazzaville
Dubai-Accra-Lome/Cotonou (tag-on in addition to daily service continuing to Abidjan). There has been some speculation that EK could go more than 1x daily to ACC but I do not see it being a standalone service on a 777.

Could we also see existing Entebbe service extended to small but fast growing Kigali?

What do you think?

Emirates doesn't serve Douala? Does Flydubai? (It would be near the edge of a MAX 8 range with NSI as the dispatched alternate.)

As for Kinshasa-Brazzaville, they are across the river from each other, but at this time, one cannot drive easily between them (there is a ferry between them).

Fuling wrote:

ghdc10 wrote:

Apparently, EK has now recovered all it's pre-pandemic routes and frequencies

Yeah, that's not true at all.

True. I meant to Africa. Not globally.

Boeing757100 wrote:

Just wondering, what is the demand like for flights to Congo? I'm no expert about Africa, but the media has a lot of negative potrayal of the DRC and how unsafe it is, which in my opinion could impact the load factor and yield of a lot of international flights there from a lot of countries. Regardless of this, I don't know if there is much business or tourist demand there because of its rep, and the fact that there are many other economic centers in that general area such as LAD which may attract a larger market, but I don't know.

Then again, Congo-Brazzaville is an OPEC member and I've heard PNR is a hotspot for oil rigs so maybe that could be a driver? But then again why would EK want to route through FIH? Just wondering, I'm no expert

The thing about African routes is most of them are not tourism driven in the true sense. The VFR market and traders to Dubai and Asia is enough to drive all Emirates routes to Nigeria and Ghana for instance.

Kinshasa is a much larger market than Brazzaville, but you will notice quite a few carriers do the short hope between the two cities mainly due to lucrative oil economy in Brazzaville as well. Very few international options out of Pointe Noire though. Conceivably, the pax would go to Brazzaville and take the flight from there instead? Who knows?

Airlinerdude wrote:

ghdc10 wrote:

Apparently, EK has now recovered all it's pre-pandemic routes and frequencies (save Lagos because of forex controls).
Where do you think they could head next either as a tag-on to existing routes, or new service?

DXB-MPM-GBE is almost certainly the next route. It was meant to be launched during 2020, but for obvious reasons it was not.

DXB-BKO-DKR-DXB was also planned at one point, but never launched.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -oct-2015/

FZ once flew DXB-EBB-FIH. I think crew security is the main concern with EK flying any FIH route.

There has been some speculation that EK could go more than 1x daily to ACC but I do not see it being a standalone service on a 777.

EK was meant to go 11 times weekly in 2019. I don't think these flights ever went ahead.

Emirates will also augment its current flight frequency to the Ghanaian capital with four additional Boeing 777-300ER flights a week bringing Emirates’ total service to 11 weekly flights to Accra effective 02 June 2019.

https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... -for-2019/

Flight timings were supposed to be:

EK789 DXB330 735ACC
EK790 ACC1045 2245DXB

Over covid, EK was flying plenty of DXB-ACC-GRU/VCP flights with preighter aircraft. I doubt there would be enough traffic to justify launching a regularly scheduled passenger service though.

Airlinerdude, I think we are the bro equivalents of soulmates! I love your research skills. Tight turnaround if you throw Lome or Cotonou onto the AM flight schedule, but it could be done.
Really sad to see that there is no interest from EK or QR building a hub in ACC.

ghdc10 wrote:

Fuling wrote:

ghdc10 wrote:

Apparently, EK has now recovered all it's pre-pandemic routes and frequencies

Yeah, that's not true at all.

True. I meant to Africa. Not globally.

Okay, that makes a bit more sense. I mean, still waiting for frequencies to be added back to CPT (currently only one daily) and JNB (currently only two daily), but yeah otherwise Africa has mostly been restored.

The 77W is too big, they might do more expansion once their 787's arrive - otherwise Africa is more FlyDubai 7M8 territory.

usflyer msp wrote:

The 77W is too big, they might do more expansion once their 787's arrive - otherwise Africa is more FlyDubai 7M8 territory.

I agree. 777 is too big. They would need feed from a smaller regional carrier to make more destinations viable beyond the flydubai 737 range.

ghdc10 wrote:

Apparently, EK has now recovered all it's pre-pandemic routes and frequencies (save Lagos because of forex controls).
Where do you think they could head next either as a tag-on to existing routes, or new service?
My money is on:
Dubai-Douala- Libreville
Dubai-Kinshasa-Brazzaville
Dubai-Accra-Lome/Cotonou (tag-on in addition to daily service continuing to Abidjan). There has been some speculation that EK could go more than 1x daily to ACC but I do not see it being a standalone service on a 777.

Could we also see existing Entebbe service extended to small but fast growing Kigali?

What do you think?

FlyDubai tried to serve FIH, but flights were quickly canceled. And right now i see that Egyptair has closed bookings to FIH the next winter, while the airline started flights to FIH in April 2022.

Douala and Libreville were supposed to be serve by Qatar Airways, but plans were canceled.

Central Africa is the most undeserved region in Africa. No flights to ME, rest of Asia or North America. Only Air France, Turkish and Brussels Airlines to Europe. The airlines based in the region operate mainly domestic flights and sometimes 3-4 destinations outside the country. Airlines from West Africa and East Africa have a big network in the region and they use 5th freedom rights.

Tourism market is limited, buisness market is probably important but when you have a raw material crisis or political crisis it affect economies in the region. Only VFR works really well. It's probaby why the region is underserved.

About Kigali, i think the B777-300ER is too big even with a 2-3 weekly service. Probably better chance to see EK at KGL, when they will add B787s. FlyDubai operated flights to Kigali in 2014, 2015 and 2016. But the have suspended flights. I think they wanted to target connecting pax between, Rwanda and India. P2P between Kigali and Dubai is probably not very big and RwandAir was already there with their B737-800s 1-2 times a day.

9w748capt wrote:

Boeing757100 wrote:

Just wondering, what is the demand like for flights to Congo? I'm no expert about Africa, but the media has a lot of negative potrayal of the DRC and how unsafe it is, which in my opinion could impact the load factor and yield of a lot of international flights there from a lot of countries. Regardless of this, I don't know if there is much business or tourist demand there because of its rep, and the fact that there are many other economic centers in that general area such as LAD which may attract a larger market, but I don't know.

Then again, Congo-Brazzaville is an OPEC member and I've heard PNR is a hotspot for oil rigs so maybe that could be a driver? But then again why would EK want to route through FIH? Just wondering, I'm no expert

Back in the day there were some fascinating TRs of trips to/from FIH. From what I've read, Kinshasa certainly has it's issues but it's a massive city that has relatively limited air service (just 2-3 flights per week to Europe maybe?). So there is definitely some demand. Fares are (were?) usually high too.

Air France flies daily to FIH via BZV using currently A330 or A350. They previously used the B777-300ER. Same thing for SN, daily service to FIH. TK operates 6 flights a week. But if we compare to others big countries in Africa, DRC is really underserved

Central Africa being so under-served raises a question about why more governments don't invest in a collective regional airline. Each country cannot go it alone in a low-margin business. This is not a football tournament.

If they had the equivalent of a Kenya Airways, not even Ethiopian Airlines, they could fill the gap and even compete for traffic to Brazil from Dubai or India. It is not rocket science. Africa always shoots itself in the foot and ends up with a carrier like Equatorial Congo airlines: aspirational but short-lived.

The solutions are never creative. Adding flights to an existing destination like Paris or Brussels means existing European carriers will take all premium traffic and can afford to offer competitive cargo and/or connecting traffic rates to destinations beyond. That's my rant for today.

rukundo wrote:

P2P between Kigali and Dubai is probably not very big and RwandAir was already there with their B737-800s 1-2 times a day.

Its 1 daily with 738 and 332 alternating

Just to clear the air, pre-covid (2019), the annual p2p number of the main EK offline markets in Africa for DXB were as follows:

BZV - 7,000 (at its peak it was 51,000 in 2015 when EC Air used to fly 2-3 weekly B757s BZV-DXB-BZV nonstop)
FIH - 43,000
FBM - 9,000
BKO - 18,000
DLA - 35,000
COO - 5,000
LBV - 11,000 (peak was in 2014 with 19,000 pax)
NKC - 9,000
OUA - 6,000
KGL - 26,000
PNR - 4,000
MPM - 6,000
NDJ - 10,000
LFW - 4,000
NSI - 12,000
NIM - 9,000
GBE - 3,000

In 2019, KQ and ET dominated demand to/from Cameroon and Congo.

Lot of potential for EK to operate a triangle DXB-BZV-FIH-DXB with crew layover in BZV (safer place). The other one following Congo, would be DXB-DLA-NSI-DXB (no issue of crew layover in Cameroon as its quite safe there).

ghdc10 wrote:

Central Africa being so under-served raises a question about why more governments don't invest in a collective regional airline. Each country cannot go it alone in a low-margin business. This is not a football tournament.

.

That has been tried with Air Afrique. It did not end well.

behramjee wrote:

Just to clear the air, pre-covid (2019), the annual p2p number of the main EK offline markets in Africa for DXB were as follows:

BZV - 7,000 (at its peak it was 51,000 in 2015 when EC Air used to fly 2-3 weekly B757s BZV-DXB-BZV nonstop)
FIH - 43,000
FBM - 9,000
BKO - 18,000
DLA - 35,000
COO - 5,000
LBV - 11,000 (peak was in 2014 with 19,000 pax)
NKC - 9,000
OUA - 6,000
KGL - 26,000
PNR - 4,000
MPM - 6,000
NDJ - 10,000
LFW - 4,000
NSI - 12,000
NIM - 9,000
GBE - 3,000

In 2019, KQ and ET dominated demand to/from Cameroon and Congo.

Lot of potential for EK to operate a triangle DXB-BZV-FIH-DXB with crew layover in BZV (safer place). The other one following Congo, would be DXB-DLA-NSI-DXB (no issue of crew layover in Cameroon as its quite safe there).

Thanks a lot for these numbers. I didn't know that P2P between Kigali and Dubai was so high, but smaller compare to EBB, DAR and NBO. Even betting on connecting to & from India, UK, Germany, Belgium and USA i don't think that Emirates will able to get a decent load B777-300ER based on 3 times a week service via EBB, per exemple, right now.

I don't know what will the break even for Kigali service. Average 130-150 pax per flight out 350-360 seats ? Rwanda is a premium destination (MICE and Luxury tourism) i think they won't struggle to fill the 1st and Biz classes but what about the economy ?

However, i won't be suprised that Rwanda is among their potential destination in next few years, with the B787-9s


Do you have P2P number between Kigali and Mumba (RwandAir operates flights there) and Kigali Mascate (Kigali is on SalamAir engine search and Oman Air planned to serve Kigali) ? Thanks

AirIndia wrote:

rukundo wrote:

P2P between Kigali and Dubai is probably not very big and RwandAir was already there with their B737-800s 1-2 times a day.

Its 1 daily with 738 and 332 alternating

The A330 arrived late 2016, FZ had already ended its service. About the 2nd daily flight, it was introduced late 2010s. Some flights made stop at Mombasa, others no stop between Kigali and Dubai.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

July 2022: Emirates puts African expansion on its radar

As it moves forward with plans to add to its 22 African routes, could Emirates be the airline that connects Africa with the world – and how will its rivalry with Turkish Airlines play out?

https://african.business/2022/07/trade- ... its-radar/

August 2022 Ghana Key Market for Emirates Airlines - Country Manager

On the Ghanaian operations, the Country Manager of Emirates Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire, said "We have restored our daily frequencies to and from Dubai," and said the airline on the average flew 8000 passengers from Ghana to other destinations across the world.

She said the Ghanaian market remained one of the priority markets for the company, stressing that Emirates offered award-winning services to customers in all classes of travel and the company had been awarded several times for its outstanding services both on and off flight.

"I'm working to increase our passenger levels from Ghana to other destinations to 500 so we can introduce the wide-body plane A380 on the Dubai to Accra route," she said. https://allafrica.com/stories/202208100629.html

behramjee wrote:

Just to clear the air, pre-covid (2019), the annual p2p number of the main EK offline markets in Africa for DXB were as follows:

BZV - 7,000 (at its peak it was 51,000 in 2015 when EC Air used to fly 2-3 weekly B757s BZV-DXB-BZV nonstop)
FIH - 43,000
FBM - 9,000
BKO - 18,000
DLA - 35,000
COO - 5,000
LBV - 11,000 (peak was in 2014 with 19,000 pax)
NKC - 9,000
OUA - 6,000
KGL - 26,000
PNR - 4,000
MPM - 6,000
NDJ - 10,000
LFW - 4,000
NSI - 12,000
NIM - 9,000
GBE - 3,000

In 2019, KQ and ET dominated demand to/from Cameroon and Congo.

Lot of potential for EK to operate a triangle DXB-BZV-FIH-DXB with crew layover in BZV (safer place). The other one following Congo, would be DXB-DLA-NSI-DXB (no issue of crew layover in Cameroon as its quite safe there).

Excellent work bringing these facts to the discussion. I would say it is really important to not look at only Dubai bound traffic though. EK is a huge connecting carrier I know they provide competitive fares to North America from Lagos and Accra depending on how far off one would like to venture off the great circle route. Destinations like China and India in addition to Asia are possibly even more attractive and lucrative than Dubai. Lots of options to Dubai with ET and KQ.

Yaounde always surprises me with the pax numbers: pleasantly, of course!


Would you happen to have ABJ & ACC pax numbers?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

July 2022: Emirates puts African expansion on its radar

As it moves forward with plans to add to its 22 African routes, could Emirates be the airline that connects Africa with the world – and how will its rivalry with Turkish Airlines play out?

https://african.business/2022/07/trade- ... its-radar/

August 2022 Ghana Key Market for Emirates Airlines - Country Manager

On the Ghanaian operations, the Country Manager of Emirates Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire, said "We have restored our daily frequencies to and from Dubai," and said the airline on the average flew 8000 passengers from Ghana to other destinations across the world.

She said the Ghanaian market remained one of the priority markets for the company, stressing that Emirates offered award-winning services to customers in all classes of travel and the company had been awarded several times for its outstanding services both on and off flight.

"I'm working to increase our passenger levels from Ghana to other destinations to 500 so we can introduce the wide-body plane A380 on the Dubai to Accra route," she said. https://allafrica.com/stories/202208100629.html[/quote]


EK really needs those smaller planes. They could feed more connecting flights with seperate departures from Accra instead of an A380 daily.

ghdc10 wrote:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


EK really needs those smaller planes. They could feed more connecting flights with seperate departures from Accra instead of an A380 daily.

Does EK have fifth freedom rights into Accra from other countries to provide this feed?

ghdc10 wrote:

behramjee wrote:

Just to clear the air, pre-covid (2019), the annual p2p number of the main EK offline markets in Africa for DXB were as follows:

BZV - 7,000 (at its peak it was 51,000 in 2015 when EC Air used to fly 2-3 weekly B757s BZV-DXB-BZV nonstop)
FIH - 43,000
FBM - 9,000
BKO - 18,000
DLA - 35,000
COO - 5,000
LBV - 11,000 (peak was in 2014 with 19,000 pax)
NKC - 9,000
OUA - 6,000
KGL - 26,000
PNR - 4,000
MPM - 6,000
NDJ - 10,000
LFW - 4,000
NSI - 12,000
NIM - 9,000
GBE - 3,000

In 2019, KQ and ET dominated demand to/from Cameroon and Congo.

Lot of potential for EK to operate a triangle DXB-BZV-FIH-DXB with crew layover in BZV (safer place). The other one following Congo, would be DXB-DLA-NSI-DXB (no issue of crew layover in Cameroon as its quite safe there).

Excellent work bringing these facts to the discussion. I would say it is really important to not look at only Dubai bound traffic though. EK is a huge connecting carrier I know they provide competitive fares to North America from Lagos and Accra depending on how far off one would like to venture off the great circle route. Destinations like China and India in addition to Asia are possibly even more attractive and lucrative than Dubai. Lots of options to Dubai with ET and KQ.

Yaounde always surprises me with the pax numbers: pleasantly, of course!


Would you happen to have ABJ & ACC pax numbers?

In 2019, Emirates had ultra competitive fares from Nigeria (LOS and ABV) to USA and as a result secured the 2nd highest market share on ABV-USA and third highest on LOS-USA.

What surprised me was that they were ranked #2 for ABV-IAD and LOS-IAD/IAH/DFW respectively despite the massive back-tracking via DXB. I've flown EK 11 times LOS-DXB-LOS between 2013-16 and on each flight, there were dozens of pax connecting via DXB to North America. Nigerians love DXB as a city, its airport duty free and also quite a few opt for the 24-48 hour DXB stopover package in one direction.

Also keep in mind, a lot of Nigerian wealth moved from UK to DXB bank accounts after 2012 due to the new UK residency tax laws. In 2019, p2p LOS-DXB-LOS was 284,000 round trip pax which is almost as much as LOS-USA-LOS and 25% higher than ACC-LHR-ACC!

EK really have missed out on many opportunities in Africa, Asia and Europe by not having an airplane the size of a B788 since 2015 in their fleet.

EK should have kept their A330-200s longer, they were perfect for Africa routes capacity-wise, it seems.

CRJ900 wrote:

EK should have kept their A330-200s longer, they were perfect for Africa routes capacity-wise, it seems.

Bigger isn't always better. QR gets the point. They even have A320s!
I remember all the talk of DXB being full to the brim with only two runways. That is what motivated the large airplane strategy as they focused on higher yielding markets. Now that they've accomplished that, the next phase of revenue growth is an interesting challenge.

After the upcoming recession, they should have well timed addition of smaller planes to their fleet to make more thin routes viable.

With all this talk about EK, I suppose everyone forgets EY and Gulf Air. They both have small planes but not the network to match EK's dominance.