Was just wondering...perhaps Colombia..Canada...Panama...the UK? What do you all think?

With the density of seating, I doubt the UK. Thanks to the longer legs of the MAX 8, I could see Canada as the next expansion.

I could even see Canada-USA-Mexico hubbing if a hub has fast immigration. But as fares would be poor, a secondary option.

Wasn’t SXM in the works before the 2017 hurricane season ?

I have a feeling WN will wait and see how B6/NK shakes out before starting an international expansion. The “Southwest Effect” isn’t what it used to be, especially in intl markets…

They could have been flying to Canada from BWI, MDW or SEA with 737-300s ~three decades ago. I don't think range has been what's keeping them out of Canada. (IMHO it's Canada point of sale.)

Sophisticated, low-frequency Caribbean probably wouldn't work. Think routes to airports with nearby all inclusive resorts -- and not just PUJ.

The “Southwest Effect” isn’t what it used to be,…[/quote]

Five fastest growing markets in the US post-pandemic are cities that Southwest opened in the past three years.

Can't understand some 15 years ago give or take a few years Gary Kelly was ready to pull the trigger on a West Jet Code Share but he Hmm and Hauled on it for so long that Delta swooped in and pulled the rug out on Uncle GK.

canyonblue17 wrote:

The “Southwest Effect” isn’t what it used to be,…

Five fastest growing markets in the US post-pandemic are cities that Southwest opened in the past three years.[/quote]

That’s not the Southwest Effect…that’s a post-pandemic demand boom. And that boom is going to go bust in the near future.

Maybe dip their feet into additional Caribbean markets even if its seasonal I think they could make some routes work especially in the winter season.

The biggest thing keeping WN out of cities like MEX, BOG ,DUB, LON, etc... is the fact that their systems still can't process foreign currency, and those markets have a local population that is wealthy enough to travel and still have a large point of sale. WN also didn't adapt to the local market considerations in MEX just because Mexicans travel in a different way than. Americans, i.e. CTOs are still a popular option, then add on the fact the back systems couldn't process the Peso. Forget about processing the CAD, Euro, Pound et al. This doesn't cut out people who still can pay in USD that are locals in the foreign city, but significantly narrows their viable customer base.

The beach markets work because the return leg is loaded with the Americans that are on a round trip. A place like Toronto would have the lions share of seats sold to Canadians as well as Americans, but most of those Canadians would be paying in CAD.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought WN's biggest hesitance with Canada is that it would be hard to offer their low fares and make profit due to airport fees and taxes.

orlandocfi wrote:

canyonblue17 wrote:

The “Southwest Effect” isn’t what it used to be,…

Five fastest growing markets in the US post-pandemic are cities that Southwest opened in the past three years.

That’s not the Southwest Effect…that’s a post-pandemic demand boom. And that boom is going to go bust in the near future.[/quote]

When everyone else cut back, Southwest expanded. Each of those airports has benefitted from the new service - with lower prices, more locations and increased total passengers - that is exactly the Southwest Effect. How it winds up in the future - I left my 8-Ball at home.

I never understood why WN didn't use ATL for Caribbean flights, CUN, MBJ, SJU, AUA, GCM etc.. would be perfect for connections through ATL.

TWA772LR wrote:

The biggest thing keeping WN out of cities like MEX, BOG ,DUB, LON, etc... is the fact that their systems still can't process foreign currency,

I thought all the IT System problems they had last year or so was due to them finally updating their systems which would also allow foreign currency, Red Eye's and the infamous additional check bag issue - I say infamous because some like to claim that is the only reason for 2 bags free -.

STT757 wrote:

I never understood why WN didn't use ATL for Caribbean flights, CUN, MBJ, SJU, AUA, GCM etc.. would be perfect for connections through ATL.

Because they'd still want to pick up some local traffic, but that's a huge challenge when you're competing with an 800-lb gorilla. They have a better shot at the local traffic in BWI, MDW, HOU, or FLL, and connections make up the balance. Sometimes you just have to pick your battles wisely.

AntonioMartin wrote:

Was just wondering...perhaps Colombia..Canada...Panama...the UK? What do you all think?

Nothing for a few years. They're still going to have to devote substantially all their planned growth to backfilling markets which were chopped during the pandemic. They basically rolled out a decade's worth of growth markets to keep their airplanes and staff flying.

SXM? Though I don’t know if it’s high yielding enough. Maybe also distance. But it does have fair demand and there are a lot of resorts next to the airport.

canyonblue17 wrote:

The “Southwest Effect” isn’t what it used to be,…

I would frame it differently, the LCC isn'ts what it used to be. Its not the ULCC effect.

That is very true, but its not the ULCC effect. Southwest failed epically in Mexico City. They just couldn't compete with Viva Aerobus's and Volaris operating costs and plane tickets. They are some of the lowest in the industry (operational costs). Southwest fares where similar to Mexico and their brand basically just appeals to americans. Which Volaris has build a strong brand in Texas and California. For the rest of Latam, i just see Viva Air winning Colombia and now with the nex A321XLR + A320NEO SKY and JetSmart will give them a very hard time por South American Markets.

Definitely would love to see more competition here in latam, but in terms of pricing and competition i just dont see it. What Ryan (viva) and Indigo (Volaris+JetSmart) have done in this region is impressive. Most of the markets have nearly double their passengers due to ULCC that opened of the option of travel for millions of lower incom latin americans.

I am way more curious about the role the new jetblue+spirit will play in LATAM and how will jetblue with their higher costs will maintain routes that currently exist because of Spirit. Also Frontiers expansion to LATAM only seems obvious. Could we see any indigo partnerships amongst airlines?

totesen wrote:

and their brand basically just appeals to americans.

Very true, which is why Southwest is pretty much restricted to the US only. Americans might be used to it, non-Americans aren't and it might actually put them off. For example I can imagine many people would dread at the thought of having no assigned seating, they want to know their seat in advance. Also the two free checked bags isn't the selling point to non-Americans that it is to Americans.

In order to appeal to non-Americans, Southwest would have to turn it's whole business model upside down. But Southwest is very conservative when it comes to their business model, they won't do that. As such, there is no market for them outside the US.

Other airlines are way more international oriented than Southwest, they got a pretty universal business model that is understood and accepted around the globe. Southwest only works in the US because people are familiar with it, it wouldn't work anywhere else. Among all airlines flying in the US, I wouldn't be surprised if Southwest has the lowest percentage of foreign passengers.

WN's international network will continue to revolve around the major beach markets. You will not see them expanding to markets that have significant foreign POS or still use travel agencies in a significant way.

Southwest has been successful without international focus. Still many U.S. opportunities. Too much volatility and cost fluctuation in that space and too many low cost operators have emerged in every area of the world for Southwest to offer any meaningful game-changing attribute to cover the risk.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

totesen wrote:

and their brand basically just appeals to americans.

Very true, which is why Southwest is pretty much restricted to the US only. Americans might be used to it, non-Americans aren't and it might actually put them off. For example I can imagine many people would dread at the thought of having no assigned seating, they want to know their seat in advance. Also the two free checked bags isn't the selling point to non-Americans that it is to Americans.

In order to appeal to non-Americans, Southwest would have to turn it's whole business model upside down. But Southwest is very conservative when it comes to their business model, they won't do that. As such, there is no market for them outside the US.

Other airlines are way more international oriented than Southwest, they got a pretty universal business model that is understood and accepted around the globe. Southwest only works in the US because people are familiar with it, it wouldn't work anywhere else. Among all airlines flying in the US, I wouldn't be surprised if Southwest has the lowest percentage of foreign passengers.

This is simply false. Easyjet does not assign seats, and it does just fine in Europe. There's nothing inherently unattractive about the Southwest business model. It simply takes some getting used to, and Latinos would be happy to line up at the gate just as they do when they fly within the United States. The chance to avoid the dreaded middle seat is a godsend to travelers, and when you can simply check in and get in line early instead of paying for that benefit, Southwest looks really good. I think what is more problematic is the lack of foresight that Southwest has regarding its information systems. They should see that people are willing to pay a little more for international itineraries and that a small investment in upgrading their backend systems would likely pay for itself over time. Unfortunately, Southwest has always been risk-averse, so any international growth is likely to be small and slow for years to come.

usdcaguy wrote:

PatrickZ80 wrote:

totesen wrote:

and their brand basically just appeals to americans.

Very true, which is why Southwest is pretty much restricted to the US only. Americans might be used to it, non-Americans aren't and it might actually put them off. For example I can imagine many people would dread at the thought of having no assigned seating, they want to know their seat in advance. Also the two free checked bags isn't the selling point to non-Americans that it is to Americans.

In order to appeal to non-Americans, Southwest would have to turn it's whole business model upside down. But Southwest is very conservative when it comes to their business model, they won't do that. As such, there is no market for them outside the US.

Other airlines are way more international oriented than Southwest, they got a pretty universal business model that is understood and accepted around the globe. Southwest only works in the US because people are familiar with it, it wouldn't work anywhere else. Among all airlines flying in the US, I wouldn't be surprised if Southwest has the lowest percentage of foreign passengers.

This is simply false. Easyjet does not assign seats, and it does just fine in Europe. There's nothing inherently unattractive about the Southwest business model. It simply takes some getting used to, and Latinos would be happy to line up at the gate just as they do when they fly within the United States. The chance to avoid the dreaded middle seat is a godsend to travelers, and when you can simply check in and get in line early instead of paying for that benefit, Southwest looks really good. I think what is more problematic is the lack of foresight that Southwest has regarding its information systems. They should see that people are willing to pay a little more for international itineraries and that a small investment in upgrading their backend systems would likely pay for itself over time. Unfortunately, Southwest has always been risk-averse, so any international growth is likely to be small and slow for years to come.

Your information is almost more than 10 years old. Easyjet has been assigning seats since 2012. Southwest's boarding policy is a turn-off for a lot of people. I would like to see assigned seating at Southwest.

https://simpleflying.com/why-did-easyje ... d-seating/

Quote "I would like to see assigned seating at Southwest."

Southwest actually did test assigned seating a few years back. They tried it at several stations, both large and small. And the passengers spoke....the reviews were horrible. It wound up like 80-20 in favor of keeping open seating. It's not like they haven't thought of trying it. But other than the Covid hit - it is a process that in one way shape or form has helped Southwest turn a profit ($760 million last quarter) it's entire life (more than half a century). It's not the only reason, but it is quite an important one.

Indeed, EasyJet moved away from open seating because it didn't work. Ryanair did the same, both had open seating in the past but changed to assigned seating which works better.

A funny trick they pulled to speed up the boarding process is to list on your boarding pass which door you should take for boarding (front or rear). That's possible because neither airline likes to use air bridges. They prefer stairs instead. Plenty of times I've seen a Ryanair or EasyJet aircraft parked at a gate while the jet bridge wasn't used. The passengers walked out on the tarmac to the aircraft. Because all passengers in the rear of the plane board through the rear door, they don't clog up the front of the aircraft and vice versa. It's like boarding two halve aircraft instead of one whole.

I've heard many stories about the Southwest boarding process and it just doesn't appeal, then Ryanair and EasyJet have much better boarding processes. Assigned seating was a change for the better for them.

canyonblue17 wrote:

Quote "I would like to see assigned seating at Southwest."

Southwest actually did test assigned seating a few years back. They tried it at several stations, both large and small. And the passengers spoke....the reviews were horrible. It wound up like 80-20 in favor of keeping open seating. It's not like they haven't thought of trying it. But other than the Covid hit - it is a process that in one way shape or form has helped Southwest turn a profit ($760 million last quarter) it's entire life (more than half a century). It's not the only reason, but it is quite an important one.

That's because it was different from what people expected. It's not the assigned seating itself which led to bad reviews, every other airline except for Southwest has assigned seating as well and their passengers don't complain about it. But it's the fact that you don't expect it that leads to negative reactions.

With foreign passengers this is also applies, but the difference is that since they're not used to the way Southwest works they don't expect open seating. They expect assigned seating, and the fact that Southwest doesn't have it makes them think negative about Southwest. Next time they'll fly another airline which does have assigned seating.

Besides, I heard some countries actually require assigned seating by law. The passenger lists must specify which passenger sits in which seat, that's a legal requirement. I could be wrong about this, but it seems to be the case in some South American countries. What if for some reason the FAA makes the same requirement in the US? Southwest would need to adapt of course, but after a while people would be used to it and the complaints would stop. During that experiment they just didn't give people the time to get used to it.

If Ryanair and EasyJet could switch from open seating to assigned seating, so can Southwest. Besides, they can let passengers choose their seat upon check-in so they can still sit in their preferred seat without having to fight for it during boarding.

All this talk about brand and awareness getting in the way of an international expansion, yet Spirit somehow does it?? What's the difference? Spirit's brand name isn't exactly PanAm!?

totesen wrote:

canyonblue17 wrote:

The “Southwest Effect” isn’t what it used to be,…

I would frame it differently, the LCC isn'ts what it used to be. Its not the ULCC effect.

That is very true, but its not the ULCC effect. Southwest failed epically in Mexico City. They just couldn't compete with Viva Aerobus's and Volaris operating costs and plane tickets. They are some of the lowest in the industry (operational costs). Southwest fares where similar to Mexico and their brand basically just appeals to americans. Which Volaris has build a strong brand in Texas and California. For the rest of Latam, i just see Viva Air winning Colombia and now with the nex A321XLR + A320NEO SKY and JetSmart will give them a very hard time por South American Markets.

Definitely would love to see more competition here in latam, but in terms of pricing and competition i just dont see it. What Ryan (viva) and Indigo (Volaris+JetSmart) have done in this region is impressive. Most of the markets have nearly double their passengers due to ULCC that opened of the option of travel for millions of lower incom latin americans.

I am way more curious about the role the new jetblue+spirit will play in LATAM and how will jetblue with their higher costs will maintain routes that currently exist because of Spirit. Also Frontiers expansion to LATAM only seems obvious. Could we see any indigo partnerships amongst airlines?

MEX didn’t workout for B6 either. MEX is more of a Big 3 market than one for LCCs/ULCCs.

Also, F9 just pulled out of COS after WN entered and quickly expanded in the market.

INFINITI329 wrote:

usdcaguy wrote:

PatrickZ80 wrote:

Very true, which is why Southwest is pretty much restricted to the US only. Americans might be used to it, non-Americans aren't and it might actually put them off. For example I can imagine many people would dread at the thought of having no assigned seating, they want to know their seat in advance. Also the two free checked bags isn't the selling point to non-Americans that it is to Americans.

In order to appeal to non-Americans, Southwest would have to turn it's whole business model upside down. But Southwest is very conservative when it comes to their business model, they won't do that. As such, there is no market for them outside the US.

Other airlines are way more international oriented than Southwest, they got a pretty universal business model that is understood and accepted around the globe. Southwest only works in the US because people are familiar with it, it wouldn't work anywhere else. Among all airlines flying in the US, I wouldn't be surprised if Southwest has the lowest percentage of foreign passengers.

This is simply false. Easyjet does not assign seats, and it does just fine in Europe. There's nothing inherently unattractive about the Southwest business model. It simply takes some getting used to, and Latinos would be happy to line up at the gate just as they do when they fly within the United States. The chance to avoid the dreaded middle seat is a godsend to travelers, and when you can simply check in and get in line early instead of paying for that benefit, Southwest looks really good. I think what is more problematic is the lack of foresight that Southwest has regarding its information systems. They should see that people are willing to pay a little more for international itineraries and that a small investment in upgrading their backend systems would likely pay for itself over time. Unfortunately, Southwest has always been risk-averse, so any international growth is likely to be small and slow for years to come.

Your information is almost more than 10 years old. Easyjet has been assigning seats since 2012. Southwest's boarding policy is a turn-off for a lot of people. I would like to see assigned seating at Southwest.

https://simpleflying.com/why-did-easyje ... d-seating/

I prefer assigned seating. But obviously open seating works for WN. They don’t seem to have trouble attracting new customers and keeping repeat customers with the record profits they keep posting. Let’s not forget they are the world’s most profitable airline in terms of the longevity of their financial success… No other airline in the world has been consistently profitable for as long as WN.

Here are some destinations in the Caribbean served by B6 or NK that don't currently have WN service (along with the other U.S.-based airlines serving the same destinations):

• BQN - UA, B6, NK, F9
• BGI - AA, UA, B6
• CUR - AA, UA, B6
• GND - AA, B6
• KIN - AA, DL, B6, NK, F9
• PSE - B6, NK
• POS - AA, UA, B6
• POP - AA, UA, B6
• STX - AA, DL, B6, NK
• UVF - AA, DL, UA, B6
• STT - AA, DL, UA, B6, NK, F9
• STI - AA, DL, UA, B6, NK
• SDQ - AA, DL, UA, B6, NK, F9
• SXM - AA, DL, UA, B6, NK, F9

There are some more Caribbean destinations remaining that can probably support WN service with B6, NK, and F9 serving some Caribbean destinations that don't currently have WN service.

WN resuming HOU-AUA/GCM/PUJ nonstop service and adding HOU-NAS/PLS nonstop service are possibilities with HOU being one of the main international gateways for WN along with there being plans to add more international gates at HOU.

Further international expansion out of HOU by WN is also likely a matter of when with additional international gates being added at HOU.

There were also discussions over in the Nashville Aviation Thread and the Southwest Fleet/Network Thread regarding the possibility of WN adding nonstop service out of BNA to more Caribbean destinations.

airplaneboy wrote:

They don’t seem to have trouble attracting new customers and keeping repeat customers with the record profits they keep posting. Let’s not forget they are the world’s most profitable airline in terms of the longevity of their financial success… No other airline in the world has been consistently profitable for as long as WN.

The thread isn't 'Taking Americans to short-haul destinations,' but about opening up international destinations. True long-haul isn't in the mix - seating density will kill MAX8 range. Heavy foreign POS won't work, so forget a lot of Canada and VFR Latin America. Big market Caribbean should work - but only where Spirit and Frontier haven't already beaten them to the punch and hollowed out the fares so low that WN won't go.

I posit HOU - RTB Houston-Hobby to Roatan, Honduras could be a good one for WN. Fares are getting higher and higher and it could give UA a bit of run for their money. Even Sat only would be popular with the weeklong dive-trip crowd.

FlyingSicilian wrote:

I posit HOU - RTB Houston-Hobby to Roatan, Honduras could be a good one for WN. Fares are getting higher and higher and it could give UA a bit of run for their money. Even Sat only would be popular with the weeklong dive-trip crowd.

Not sure there is space on the RTB ramp on a sat for an additional 737, but yes I agree. UA is going gangbusters there and their DEN RTB was a smashing success.

LightChop2Chop wrote:

FlyingSicilian wrote:

I posit HOU - RTB Houston-Hobby to Roatan, Honduras could be a good one for WN. Fares are getting higher and higher and it could give UA a bit of run for their money. Even Sat only would be popular with the weeklong dive-trip crowd.

Not sure there is space on the RTB ramp on a sat for an additional 737, but yes I agree. UA is going gangbusters there and their DEN RTB was a smashing success.

It is funny you mention that as I started thinking about that after my post as more seasonal services have come in to RTB like Sun Country, etc. space is at a premium.
WN will do well along the entire reef from CZM to BZE and hopefully RTB.

Could WN in theory sell tickets in El Salvador, Panama, and Ecuador since they us the US Dollar or does it have to be US banked?

totesen wrote:

canyonblue17 wrote:

The “Southwest Effect” isn’t what it used to be,…

I would frame it differently, the LCC isn'ts what it used to be. Its not the ULCC effect.

. Also Frontiers expansion to LATAM only seems obvious. Could we see any indigo partnerships amongst airlines?

Well, Frontier is already in LATAM...I guess we can say FURTHER...

Southwest runs on Amadeus Altea that many carriers use I am sure That international sales in multiple currencies are available to them.
they choose not use these facilities . Southwest is a profitable company that services the USA for the most part .
They do what is in their wheelhouse they are a very large airline with many resources they choose where the put them to use and international services is not a major part of their operations by choice

ncflyer wrote:

All this talk about brand and awareness getting in the way of an international expansion, yet Spirit somehow does it?? What's the difference? Spirit's brand name isn't exactly PanAm!?

But Spirit is more similar to the airlines which people are used to, Southwest just isn't.

" The Southwest Effect " was somewhat still used or taught as a Business Strategy for a time but fast forward to 2022 it is a Business Strategy that went the way of The Rotary Phone, The Beta Max VCR, 8 track players, Mood Rings, K- Tel Records, and so on.
Herb K. believed and created The Southwest Strategy but in the years after he stepped away from the company Gary Kelly and now Bob Jordan and all those other Southwest Leaders at The Palace in Dallas Reinvented Southwest.
Just like The Southwest Effect, The Southwest Culture is a Facet. Sorry to drift away from the topic at hand but i still see Southwest in the future acquiring Hawaiian, Alaska, or maybe West Jet to gain entry into some International Markets that those airlines have already established.

sonnyr23 wrote:

" The Southwest Effect " was somewhat still used or taught as a Business Strategy for a time but fast forward to 2022 it is a Business Strategy that went the way of The Rotary Phone, The Beta Max VCR, 8 track players, Mood Rings, K- Tel Records, and so on.
Herb K. believed and created The Southwest Strategy but in the years after he stepped away from the company Gary Kelly and now Bob Jordan and all those other Southwest Leaders at The Palace in Dallas Reinvented Southwest.
Just like The Southwest Effect, The Southwest Culture is a Facet. Sorry to drift away from the topic at hand but i still see Southwest in the future acquiring Hawaiian, Alaska, or maybe West Jet to gain entry into some International Markets that those airlines have already established.

Maybe Alaska cause it has fleet commonality and Canadian markets.....Westjet? Im not sure cause I dont know how much foreign ownership Canada allows....Hawaiian has many different aircraft which would be an expense for Southwest to re-train crews for those...

There are some more markets remaining where WN could add Saturday-only nonstop service to CUN such as ABQ, BUF, CVG, CLE, DTW, and MSP.

WN adding CUN-MCO/TPA nonstop service is also a possibility with the connecting feed that WN would have onto CUN-MCO/TPA from other Eastern U.S. markets.

WN flew LAX-CUN nonstop for a while but they dropped it.
I don't see WN adding international as due to the pandemic and Boeing, their ability to grow fast has kind of been toast for a while.