Predictions on Final 757 Flights in the US

Gillbilly · Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:04 am

Curious to hear what everyone thinks about when the final 757 flights in the US will occur. Of course you can categorize this topic in many different ways. I'd like to consider everything:

Domestic passenger service within the US (like Delta and United)
International flights to the US by a foreign airline (like Icelandair)
Domestic and international cargo (like UPS, FedEx, Cargojet)
USAF (C-32s)
Private defense/research (like Honeywell)
Private passenger/charter

What am I missing?

Since 90% of A.net has a burning fetish for the 757, myself included, I figured this would be a fun discussion to have.

strfyr51 · Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:21 am

I'd give the 757 10years from Now since the PW2000 is not being built, Nor the Rolls 535 if not mistaken? they're obligated for 10 years from the end of production and after that? then they can stop producing parts for the model. So it depends on how many parts are ibn circulation or in production as to my guess.

GalaxyFlyer · Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:31 am

PW and RR will continue to support them long after the 10 year regulatory deadline—too many out there to ignore from a business perspective. The time begins with the end of production which was a few years ago.

TheZ · Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:31 am

I think we'll see them in cargo operations the longest, and probably at least 20 years from now with the likes of FedEx.

cfcra747 · Wed Sep 21, 2022 1:53 am

It would be interesting to see how long DL and UA keep the 753's after more 752's get parked. Would a small fleet like that be worth operating even though they have good capacity?

strfyr51 · Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:06 am

cfcra747 wrote:
It would be interesting to see how long DL and UA keep the 753's after more 752's get parked. Would a small fleet like that be worth operating even though they have good capacity?

5
the 753 and the 764 have the advantage of the 752 and the 763 where they won't run out of parts anytime Soon. and many parts can be stripped and overhauled from retired airplanes to keep them going.

Kno · Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:13 am

Long live the 757!!!

SeaDoo · Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:18 am

Domestic passenger, I would guess something on DL

Internationa passengerl, I would guess Icelandair

WkndWanderer · Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:26 am

strfyr51 wrote:
I'd give the 757 10years from Now since the PW2000 is not being built, Nor the Rolls 535 if not mistaken? they're obligated for 10 years from the end of production and after that? then they can stop producing parts for the model. So it depends on how many parts are ibn circulation or in production as to my guess.

I feel like the freighter and the C17 fleets alone would keep PW in the business of supporting the engine.

As far as last domestic flights go, I see it being something like DL, SLC/MSP/DTW-ATL full of enthusiasts and bloggers.

Newark727 · Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:39 am

Last 757 flight will obviously be on Delta, ca. 2072, flown by a three-armed post-nuclear mutant

flyingclrs727 · Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:45 am

strfyr51 wrote:
I'd give the 757 10years from Now since the PW2000 is not being built, Nor the Rolls 535 if not mistaken? they're obligated for 10 years from the end of production and after that? then they can stop producing parts for the model. So it depends on how many parts are ibn circulation or in production as to my guess.

The PW2000 is also used by the C-17 which will be around for decades in the USAF and other air forces. Furthermore each C-17 has 4 of them which makes supporting the engine for the C-17 fleet equivalent of supporting the engines for over 500 757's.

flyingclrs727 · Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:53 am

cfcra747 wrote:
It would be interesting to see how long DL and UA keep the 753's after more 752's get parked. Would a small fleet like that be worth operating even though they have good capacity?

On the other hand could it be possible to convert 753's to freighers or even combi freighters? There is also the issue that the 757 has the same type rating as the 767. UA still has a pretty large fleet of 767's.

0hAerqplane · Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:44 am

Probably United and Delta will retire their 757s in 2060 if they keep them in good shape. The whole 757 will be retired 40 years later as freighters

AAPilot48Heavy · Wed Sep 21, 2022 5:10 pm

0hAerqplane wrote:
Probably United and Delta will retire their 757s in 2060 if they keep them in good shape. The whole 757 will be retired 40 years later as freighters

May I ask where you come up with your nonsensical answers? How do you suppose you can keep it flying in 2100 with no new engines, no parts, wear and tear and cycle limits?

Boeing757100 · Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:14 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
cfcra747 wrote:
It would be interesting to see how long DL and UA keep the 753's after more 752's get parked. Would a small fleet like that be worth operating even though they have good capacity?

On the other hand could it be possible to convert 753's to freighers or even combi freighters? There is also the issue that the 757 has the same type rating as the 767. UA still has a pretty large fleet of 767's.

Don't think that the feedstock will exist for a 757-300F program. I'd personally think that an A300F or 767-200 is just fine for the gap between a 757-200 and a 767-300. Besides, the 55 already flying are being used pretty heavily by the respective airlines and may not have the life left to be feasibly operated as a freighter for 20+ more years. Most likely they will be used as part scavengers to support existing 757/767.

AAPilot48Heavy wrote:
0hAerqplane wrote:
Probably United and Delta will retire their 757s in 2060 if they keep them in good shape. The whole 757 will be retired 40 years later as freighters

May I ask where you come up with your nonsensical answers? How do you suppose you can keep it flying in 2100 with no new engines, no parts, wear and tear and cycle limits?

Sorry, I think you're wrong. Isn't it obvious that Boeing is gonna develop a new 757-X/plus/neo/max/re-engine? :rotfl:

Boeing757100 · Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:24 pm

My personal guesses:

Last mainline pax operator: Delta
Last freighter operator: UPS, as I have heard that their 757s, although delivered in the late 80s, still have a lot of life in them for at least 15+ years, though don't count on me for that.
Government: Comco, as well as the C-32s will probably stay for a long time
Last operator ever: Boeing's N757A; AKA the first 757 ever built. Testbed for F-22 Raptor program. Boeing has hinted absolutely no retirement at all for this bird.

0hAerqplane · Wed Sep 21, 2022 9:45 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
cfcra747 wrote:
It would be interesting to see how long DL and UA keep the 753's after more 752's get parked. Would a small fleet like that be worth operating even though they have good capacity?

On the other hand could it be possible to convert 753's to freighers or even combi freighters? There is also the issue that the 757 has the same type rating as the 767. UA still has a pretty large fleet of 767's.

Don't think that the feedstock will exist for a 757-300F program. I'd personally think that an A300F or 767-200 is just fine for the gap between a 757-200 and a 767-300. Besides, the 55 already flying are being used pretty heavily by the respective airlines and may not have the life left to be feasibly operated as a freighter for 20+ more years. Most likely they will be used as part scavengers to support existing 757/767.

AAPilot48Heavy wrote:
0hAerqplane wrote:
Probably United and Delta will retire their 757s in 2060 if they keep them in good shape. The whole 757 will be retired 40 years later as freighters

May I ask where you come up with your nonsensical answers? How do you suppose you can keep it flying in 2100 with no new engines, no parts, wear and tear and cycle limits?

Sorry, I think you're wrong. Isn't it obvious that Boeing is gonna develop a new 757-X/plus/neo/max/re-engine?

They could have new engines every 15 years new parts every 10 years no wear and tear

bfitzflyer · Wed Sep 21, 2022 11:41 pm

DL - MCO-ATL last passenger flight probably around 2030 to 2032

invertalon · Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:30 am

Have a flight change on DL from LAX to MCO from an A320 to a 757 in a few weeks. Really excited as it's one of my most sought out planes to fly in! But has evaded me up until now...

Will be a shame when they are no longer used domestically. Such a great looking aircraft.

ACDC8 · Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:54 pm

Years ago, I watched a documentary on the B52 bomber and one of the pilots said that one day, when the B2 bomber retires, the crews of the B52 will come to pick them up. I figure it'll be the same with the 757 when the 787 retires, they 757 will come and pick them up :duck:

In all seriousness, if air travel remains normal, I figure the 757 might have another 10 years or so left in normal passenger service simply based on its uniqueness to operate a niche variety of services. There aren't many frames left in passenger configuration, I believe DL has the largest fleet with about 110 or something like that and outside of the US, not many airlines fly them anymore, FI probably being the biggest with about 15 frames or so.

As far as cargo operations go, it probably has a few more years of life there.

Environmental policies and new technologies of course being a big variable as well.

SANMSP · Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:31 pm

If the 757 had more military use, I'd go with military. Think of all the 707 variants still in military service. But my vote is on cargo in this case.

Boeing757100 · Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:26 pm

ACDC8 wrote:
I figure it'll be the same with the 757 when the 787 retires, they 757 will come and pick them up .

When the 757 retires, a NW DC-9 will pick THEM up. :rotfl:

ACDC8 · Fri Sep 23, 2022 12:43 am

Boeing757100 wrote:
When the 757 retires, a NW DC-9 will pick THEM up.

LOL, I was actually going to post that :rotfl:

stlgph · Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:09 pm

MEM-VCV

arcticcruiser · Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:01 pm

To use an old joke on the B52, the mother of the last 757 pilot is not born yet!

ArcticFlyer · Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:22 am

DL will obviously hold onto their 757s as long as possible and they will be the last U.S. passenger operator. Given the proliferation of 767 freighters over the past several years I would say the 757 also has a lot of life left in it as a freighter since they can be operated by the same crews and give companies an option for a lower trip cost on thinner routes where they couldn't fill up a 767.

gunsontheroof · Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:07 am

ArcticFlyer wrote:
DL will obviously hold onto their 757s as long as possible and they will be the last U.S. passenger operator. Given the proliferation of 767 freighters over the past several years I would say the 757 also has a lot of life left in it as a freighter since they can be operated by the same crews and give companies an option for a lower trip cost on thinner routes where they couldn't fill up a 767.

If nothing else, I believe that DL acquired the last two 757s off the line (originally delivered to FM) a few years ago, so they have the youngest frames around. About 18 years old if I remember the final rollouts correctly.

SumChristianus · Sun Sep 25, 2022 4:15 am

SeaDoo wrote:
Domestic passenger, I would guess something on DL

Internationa passengerl, I would guess Icelandair

What will carry the fish otherwise? :stirthepot:

slcguy · Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:57 am

My guess would be:

Delta last passenger around 2030-2032. Of course fuel cost, economy and other issues at the time will play a roll.
UPS last freighter around 2035+. Older birds but were bought new by UPS. Relatively low time/cycle and well maintained.
Military, think the C-32 will be at least 2035-2040 for same reason as UPS. Small fleet but for military/government, economics of scale isn't a high concern.
Private/misc operators, who knows? We still a have a few 50 year old 707,727, 737, DC-8 and DC-9s still flying in one form or another, A few 757's could end up joining that club.

FatAmy · Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:41 pm

my bets it will be UPS as they seem to like to get the most out of their airframes.. I bet we see them another 15 years at least!!

seat1a · Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:59 pm

Thinking about cross-country, multi-stop routes on the last day. One unique to each airlines here in the US:

Delta: MCO-ATL-LGA-DTW-SEA-LAX-HNL.
United: BOS-EWR-ORD-IAH-DEN-LAX-SFO-ITO

Nod to Hilo.

Aptivaboy · Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:32 pm

Delta and United for passenger ops, with Delta likely keeping theirs' just a skosh longer. United loves the plane for longer ops like West Coast - Hawaii and even the longer legged 321s on order aren't perfect replacements - close, but not quite perfect or identical. Delta... Well you know Delta! They'll fly them to literally the last nut and bolt and wring every last dollar out of those frames.

I'm giving the plane 8-10 more years, with decreasing utilization as they age and wear. The wildcard is the 753. Its larger capacity may keep it around a sliver longer. Time will tell.

BoeingERJ1000 · Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:35 pm

seat1a wrote:
United: BOS-EWR-ORD-IAH-DEN-LAX-SFO-ITO

Maybe it's just a coincidence, but that routing sounds very similar to the video linked below, minus the SFO-ITO segment.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AFodklNwgW0

seat1a · Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:48 pm

Interesting but a coincidence, and I will take credit for my own routing. ;-)

There are some other UA stations that we could add, though, including SEA, OMA, and maybe Elko and Ely, Nevada as a nod to those cities from the early 1970s. Visalia and Modesto, too!

AirKevin · Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:13 pm

BoeingERJ1000 wrote:
seat1a wrote:
United: BOS-EWR-ORD-IAH-DEN-LAX-SFO-ITO

Maybe it's just a coincidence, but that routing sounds very similar to the video linked below, minus the SFO-ITO segment.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AFodklNwgW0

Also missing IAD.

zuckie13 · Mon Oct 03, 2022 2:00 pm

Newark727 wrote:
Last 757 flight will obviously be on Delta, ca. 2072, flown by a three-armed post-nuclear mutant

Perfect, one for the yoke, one for the throttle, one for the coffee.

SumChristianus · Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:06 am

Newark727 wrote:
Last 757 flight will obviously be on Delta, ca. 2072, flown by a three-armed post-nuclear mutant

Best (most laughable) post I've seen in a year!
Adding it to my doc of humorous A.net quotes: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1arL ... sp=sharing

BoeingERJ1000 · Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:36 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
Delta and United for passenger ops, with Delta likely keeping theirs' just a skosh longer. United loves the plane for longer ops like West Coast - Hawaii and even the longer legged 321s on order aren't perfect replacements - close, but not quite perfect or identical. Delta... Well you know Delta! They'll fly them to literally the last nut and bolt and wring every last dollar out of those frames.

I'm giving the plane 8-10 more years, with decreasing utilization as they age and wear.

Agreed. The 757's capabilities will probably keep it around for a while, and DL will probably keep theirs for longer than UA.
The day of the last domestic 757 flight will be a sad one. Can you imagine what A.net will be like then? It'll probably be declared a day of "national" mourning...

BoeingERJ1000 · Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:12 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
Newark727 wrote:
Last 757 flight will obviously be on Delta, ca. 2072, flown by a three-armed post-nuclear mutant

Best (most laughable) post I've seen in a year!
Adding it to my doc of humorous A.net quotes: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1arL ... sp=sharing

Really funny doc! If I may make a suggestion, I'd add something about 17" seat width and 787's/777's being the least comfortable planes in Y :duck:

Aptivaboy · Wed Oct 05, 2022 6:58 pm

I'll add to my earlier post that United's 753s will likely be the last of their 757s flying. With their larger capacity, they're perfect for leisure ops like Hawaii, the Caribbean and Latin America. They're also very generally newer than much of the rest of the 757 fleet.

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