In your opinion, what carrier should open which route, and make good money with it.

I am not asking about your favourite carrier opening your dream route, but really about
viable, realistic routes.

Please substantiate your proposal, and for the sake of keeping some oversight, let's
keep our ideas down to longhaul, international routes.

I'll start: I believe there would be an opportunity for KLM if they were to open a few
routes from BRU. I am not sure about which destinations, but there sure must be some
good yield routes to open from this under-served airport, near all the important European
Institutions.

We see Jetairways making BRU it's hub, BA wanting to serve JFK from BRU, and LH interested in a SNBA take-over. That's proof money is to be made there.
KLM could start operations there at relatively lower cost then those previously mentioned, as it already currently employs hundreds of
Belgian F/A's and dozens of Belgian pilots, who wouldn't mind driving to BRU iso Schiphol.
So no stationing costs, or deadheading costs.

Curious about other ideas,

Cheers

ATL-HKG.........................

Quoting EXAAUADL (Reply 1): ATL-HKG.........................

Some more info would be very nice, like who (DL,CX,..) aircraft type.

If I were to take a guess, you would see DL doing this with the B77L??

I think this question is very hypothetical. If there really was a route where an airline can make a lot of money it would be flown immediately.

I'm thinking of quite a few :p on the long haul transpacific I would see in the coming years these routes. A lot are challenging though.

LOS ANGELES-HO CHI MINH CITY by VIETNAM AIRLINES (but yields may not be good)
NEW YORK-SYDNEY by QANTAS AIRWAYS (future of ultra long haul routes with the fuel price ? ->ULH?)
MUMBAI-LOS ANGELES by AIR INDIA (yields ? maybe SFO would be better)
SAO PAULO-SHANGHAI by CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES (ULH ? new south-south markets)
GUANGZHOU-SAN FRANCISCO by CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES or UNITED ?
CHENNAI-SAN FRANCISCO by KINGFISHER AIRLINES
LIMA-SHANGHAI by LAN AIRLINES
CHICAGO-TAIPEI by UNITED AIRLINES (tough one too)
SAN FRANCISCO-HO CHI MINH CITY by UNITED AIRLINES
MUMBAI-CHICAGO by AIR INDIA
BANGALORE-NEW YORK by KINGFISHER AIRLINES or AI
BANGALORE-SAN FRANCISCO by AIR INDIA or KINGFFISHER AIRLINES
NEW YORK-TAIPEI by CHINA AIRLINES (ULH future ?)
BEIJING-DETROIT by NORTHWEST AIRLINES
LOS ANGELES-OSAKA by UNITED AIRLINES (hardly but possible)
CHICAGO-OSAKA by ALL NIPPON AIRWAYS
CHICAGO-SYDNEY by QANTAS AIRWAYS (ULH?)
BRISBANE-SAN FRANCISCO by VIRGIN BLUE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH-SYDNEY by QANTAS AIRWAYS
CHENNAI-NEW YORK by AIR INDIA
ATLANTA-BEIJING by DELTA AIR LINES
NEW YORK-OSAKA by CONTINENTAL AIRLINES (tough)
BOSTON-TOKYO by JAPAN AIRLINES INTERNATIONAL (tough, ULH?)
SAN FRANCISCO-SINGAPORE by SINGAPORE AIRLINES (tough but yield could be right)
MANILA-NEW YORK by PHILIPPINE AIRLINES (ULH?)
NEW YORK-HO CHI MINH CITY by VIETNAM AIRLINES (yields?)
SYDNEY-VANCOUVER by QANTAS AIRWAYS
MUMBAI-SAN FRANCISCO by JET AIRWAYS INDIA
DELHI-SAN FRANCISCO by UNITED AIRLINES
SINGAPORE-VANCOUVER by SINGAPORE AIRLINES
BEIJING-SAO PAULO by AIR CHINA
LOS ANGELES-XI AN by HAINAN AIRLINES (dvpt of secondary chinese cities, maybe later than sooner)
SAO PAULO-SEOUL by KOREAN AIR
MEXICO CITY-TOKYO by AEROMEXICO
MEXICO CITY-SHANGHAI by AEROMEXICO
DETROIT-SEOUL by NORTHWEST AIRLINES
HYDERABAD-SAN FRANCISCO by KINGFISHER AIRLINES

Again, a lot would be tough and I think airlines will increasingly focus on their hubs to only the very top destinations. Also most of these routes could in the end be operated with an intermediate stop to save fuel. Aircraft such as the 787 or A350 with all their super extra range could belong to the past. Cost cost cost is the real driver even if it means multi stops on very long legs where these aircraft are supposed to be able to operate.

These type of routes are already opened. But there will be more opportunities to China, India and Latin America for sure.

[Edited 2008-06-09 11:41:12]



[Edited 2008-06-09 11:44:39]

[Edited 2008-06-09 11:44:53]

Quoting ZRH (Reply 3): I think this question is very hypothetical. If there really was a route where an airline can make a lot of money it would be flown immediately.

There are aircraft deliveries issues. But I agree I think many routes I have mentioned above could not be opened right now but rather in a few years depending of market conditions.

With the Canadian and American dollars nearing equilibrium, I would say that Southwest Airlines should start service between Halifax, Nova Scotia and Manchester, New Hampshire 4x per day. This would provide a link for people in the Maritimes to gain access to the Lower 48. I don't know whether there is traffic going the other way (aside from the Canadians coming back home!).

But for a long time I've theorized that if Southwest Airlines were granted access to Canada they would be wise to enter the Maritimes.

It doesn't have to be Manchester...it could be Providence or Baltimore just as easily.

This is not long haul...
If Southwest were interested in long haul we can imagine they could operate from Baltimore to another low cost base in Europe. But with the rising fuel cost we see long haul carriers already applying low costs tricks !

[Edited 2008-06-09 11:39:28]

Quoting Aither (Reply 7): This is not long haul...

Sorry...you're right. I didn't read far enough into the post. My apologies!

Quoting KLMCedric (Thread starter): In your opinion, what carrier should open which route, and make good money with it. I am not asking about your favourite carrier opening your dream route, but really about viable, realistic routes. Please substantiate your proposal, and for the sake of keeping some oversight, let's keep our ideas down to longhaul, international routes. I'll start: I believe there would be an opportunity for KLM if they were to open a few routes from BRU. I am not sure about which destinations, but there sure must be some good yield routes to open from this under-served airport, near all the important European Institutions. We see Jetairways making BRU it's hub, BA wanting to serve JFK from BRU, and LH interested in a SNBA take-over. That's proof money is to be made there. KLM could start operations there at relatively lower cost then those previously mentioned, as it already currently employs hundreds of Belgian F/A's and dozens of Belgian pilots, who wouldn't mind driving to BRU iso Schiphol. So no stationing costs, or deadheading costs. Curious about other ideas, Cheers

London ( Heathrow ) to Sao Paulo .....Virgin Atlantic. Yes there will be competition from BA but that South American city with a population of over 12 million people and LHR being a major European hub they could effectively compete as they do on many other long haul routes.

IAD-BOG on UA A320..........

I have a couple just to throw out there-

MCO-CDG by either AF or DL
MCO-NRT by JAL
MCO-HKG by Cathay
DTW-BEY by NWA (as soon as the political crap stops) Detroit has a huge Lebanese population

MAYBE:

JFK-BEY
MCO-MXP

Quoting EXAAUADL (Reply 1): ATL-HKG.........................

You use almost more periods than B747forever uses exclamation and question marks!!!!!!!!!!!

Quoting Aither (Reply 4): SAN FRANCISCO-HO CHI MINH CITY by UNITED AIRLINES

This is already done. UA869 SFO-HKG-SGN

A nonstop would be way outside of the range of any current aircraft in their fleet with an approximate 16-17 hour westbound flight time.

Quoting Aither (Reply 4): CHICAGO-TAIPEI by UNITED AIRLINES (tough one too)

I believe they've already tried this route once, with no success.

Quoting Aither (Reply 4): BEIJING-DETROIT by NORTHWEST AIRLINES

Tried once.

That having been said though, the 787 might make such routes possible, again.

Quoting Aither (Reply 4): ATLANTA-BEIJING by DELTA AIR LINES

Given their application to reduce ATL-PVG flights, don't you think ATL-PEK would see rather limited success??

Quoting Aither (Reply 4): DETROIT-SEOUL by NORTHWEST AIRLINES

Tried once.

Again, 787 might change that.


As far as my own thoughts go:

ORD-HKG on AA 777. With CX codeshare I'd imagine the route would do quite well.
SEA-(Asia) on NW. They used to have a larger Asia hub at SEA. With the 787's on the way, maybe it's time to rebuild it. ICN, HKG, KIX, PVG, in addition to existing NRTx2 and PEK.

When Aer Lingus get their A350s and more A330s I think the following routes would be profitable:
DUBLIN (DUB) - BANGKOK (BKK) - SYDNEY (SYD) [3X weekly]
DUBLIN (DUB) - TORONTO (YYZ) [Daily]
DUBLIN (DUB) - NEWARK (EWR) [3X weekly]
DUBLIN (DUB) - PHILADELPHIA (PHL) [Daily]
DUBLIN (DUB) - DUBAI (DXB) [5X weekly]
DUBLIN (DUB) - HONG KONG (HKG) [2X weekly]
DUBLIN (DUB) - MUMBAI (BOM) [2X weekly]
DUBLIN (DUB) - RIO DE JANEIRO (GIG) [1X weekly]
DUBLIN (DUB) - JOHANNESBURG (JNB) [3X weekly]
DUBLIN (DUB) - MOSCOW (DME) [4X weekly]
CORK (ORK) - BANGKOK (BKK) - SYDNEY (SYD) [2X weekly]   
CORK (ORK) - NEW YORK CITY (JFK) [Daily]
BELFAST (BFS) - DUBAI (DXB) [3X weekly]
BELFAST (BFS) - SHANNON (SNN) - BOSTON (BOS) [Daily]
BELFAST (BFS) - SHANNON (SNN) - CHICAGO (ORD) [4X weekly]
BELFAST (BFS) - NEW YORK CITY (JFK) [Daily]
DUBLIN - SHANNON (SNN) - SAN FRANCISCO (SFO) [3X weekly] (re-routing the direct DUB-SFO service)

I know some of the above are far fetched especially the likes of ORK-BKK-SYD and I don't think EI will launch any more routes from SNN in the foreseeable future but I think they'd be profitable...

I bring 4 possible routes.

NEW YORK (JFK) - RIO DE JANEIRO (GIG) Any Airline will make a LOT of money
FRANKFURT (FRA) - RIO DE JANEIRO (GIG) - LH - A343 - Daily
DUBAI (DXB) - RIO DE JANEIRO (GIG) - EK - B772 - Daily
NEWARK (EWR) - BELO HORIZONTE (CNF) - CO - B762 - Daily

In light of some of the suggestions, perhaps I should say Air NZ double daily CHC-LHR direct (stopover anywhere).

Seriously though, I think the following would be viable and profitable given the absence of competition (or minimal competition) on the route.

BA - LHR-BOM-MEL-AKL
NZ - AKL-BNE-KUL-LHR
NZ/SA - AKL-JNB
EK - DXB-SIN-ADL
PR - MNL-LHR
GA - CGK-LHR

DXB-SZG

Because the Arabs like the region round Austria and Germany and it would catch some traffic from MUC as well!

New York JFK - Belgrade
Dublin - Belgrade
Paris CDG - Saint Pierre (perhaps a political solution)
Zagreb - Athens
London LGW - Belgrade (there are already flights to LHR)
Skopje - Athens (although politics is the problem)
Thessaloniki - New York
Johannesburg - Vienna (ceased ops)
Johannesburg - Rome (instead of MXP)
Larnaca - New York (by CY A330)

LHR-CGK
LHR-CAN
ACC-DKR

Quoting Soups (Reply 18): ACC-DKR

Indeed. Most pax have to fly via Abidjan (Air Ivoire). I don't understand why are there no direct flights.

LHR-SYD NONSTOP both ways  

seriously

LAX-GUM NONSTOP alot of People and Cargo on that route...

A few come to mind that I would love to see, although not 100% that they will be profitable with recent high oil prices.

LHR-BKK on Virgin Atlantic (A346) [rumoured]
LHR-NYC on Singapore Airlines (A380) or Cathay Pacific (744) [rumoured]
LHR-SIN-CGK or LHR-CGK on Garuda Indoesia (744) or British Airways (744/772)
LHR-SIN-KUL on British Airways (744) [rumoured]
LHR-CAN on China Southern (772), British Airways (772) or Virgin Atlantic (A343/6)
LHR-PEK-CAN on China Southern (772) [rumoured]
LHR-BOM or BLR on Kingfisher (332) [rumoured]
LHR-ICN on British Airways (772) [rumoured]
LHR-KIX on British Airways (772) [rumoured] or Virgin Atlantic (A343)
LHR-NGO on ANA (772)

SYD-ATL on Delta (77L) [rumoured]

LAX-SYD on Delta (772 or NWA 744 if merger goes through) [rumoured]
LAX-KIX-SGN on Vietnam Airlines 772 (Is happening anyway)

ORD-HKG on Cathay Pacific (A343/744) [rumoured]

BHX-DTW, ATL or JFK with NWA/Delta merger (752)
BHX-AUH on Etihad Airways (332)

MAN-BKK on Thai Airways (772)
MAN-HKG on Cathay Pacific (343)

DXB-SGN on Emirates (332)
DXB-EWR on Emirates (345)
DXB-ORD on Emirates (77L) [rumoured]
DXB-SFO on Emirates (77L) [rumoured]
DXB-LAX on Emirates (77L) [rumoured]
DXB-MAD on Emirates (332)
DXB-AMS on Emirates (332)
DXB-BRU on Emirates (A332)
DXB-SIN-ADL on Emirates (345)
DXB-SSH on Emirates (332)
DXB-NRT on Emirates (77W) [if slots are gained]
DXB-JFK on Delta (772) [rumoured]
DXB-EWR or IAH on Continental (772) [rumoured]
DXB-YYZ on Air Canada (77L) [rumoured]

Just a few dream routes.

Rob!   

I can see a premium/cargo airline based in Oslo and geared towards the oil and shipping industries being successful.

Fleet:

ERJ135 with 8C and 15Y
762 combi with 20C and 60Y

Routes:

short-haul:

OSL-London City
OSL-Aberdeen
OSL-Hamburg
OSL-Rotterdam
OSL-Stockholm Bromma

Stavanger-London City
Stavanger-Aberdeen

Long-haul:

OSL-IAH 6x
OSL-JFK 6x
OSL-DXB 5x
OSL-BOM-SIN 6x
OSL-NRT 5x

What about...

LHR-KGL on BA 767 2x
CDG-KGL on AF A330-200 or A340-300 2x

Other possible routes...

IAD-HKG on CX either A340-600 or B77W daily
IAD-KEF on FI (Icelandair) 75W 5x

Quoting B742 (Reply 21): DXB-SFO on Emirates (77L) [rumoured]

Confirmed to commence October 2008

Quoting B742 (Reply 21): DXB-LAX on Emirates (77L) [rumoured]

Confirmed to commence September 2008

MAD-SFO

(filler, more filler, and some more filler after that)

MIA-LOSJNB!
MIA-DKR-CPT
Both with AA 767-300 these flight just have to make money!
Also MIA-PVD I think an AA 738 can do it.
Also if AA ever got a ERJ-190 type aircraft MIA- to alot of places.
MIA-DUB Aer Lingus A330. ( They talk about doing the route all the time)
MIA-CPH SAS was always talking about starting never did.
MIA-Asia. Someplace in Asia besides for TLV. I guess MIA has to wait for the 787.
MIA-BCN AA or IB it will have to make money
MIA-MXP Alitalia filled the flight every time and now its a FCO flight, but there is capacity and room for the MXP flight. AA or Alitalia with a 767.

UA: IAD-TLV, IAD-BOM, IAD-DEL
DL: JFK-RUH, JFK-LIS
AA: MIA-JNB, MIA-NRT, ORD-HKG
NW: DTW-ICN, DTW-SVO, SEA-HKG
CO: IAH-FRA, EWR-DME
AS: SEA-PHL, SEA-IAH, PDX-EWR, LAX-SJO, LAX-LIR
US: CLT-GRU
HA: HNL-JFK, HNL-ORD

Quoting Soups (Reply 18): ACC-DKR

Hi Soups,

this route is served twice a week by Virgin Nigeria with 733 equipment.

Quoting Speedbird10 (Reply 23): IAD-KEF on FI (Icelandair) 75W 5x

Is not Baltimore served by FI?

From Barcelona, we need some destinations served with non-stop flights as:

DXB, DOH, ORD, LAX, BJS, PVG, TYO, ...

Regards,

Gerard

Quoting YULYMX (Reply 20): LHR-SYD NONSTOP both ways Smile

The only problem is there arn't any aircraft capable of carrying a decent payload nonstop both ways year round or believe me QF would be all over it

I believe EK DXB-(PER or SE Asia)-ADL in a 332 or similar is bound to happen

I wonder if QF start a ADL-DRW-SIN mainline operation even if it's a 73H say 3x weekly would be profitable



Vhq

Quoting AlexEU (Reply 17): Larnaca - New York (by CY A330)

I think so too, most possibly via ATH.

Quoting CYatUK (Reply 30): I think so too, most possibly via ATH

I don't see the reason to fly via Athens, because OA, DL and CO already fly that route. But anyway, CY should use their widebody for transatlantic flights.

Hmmm.

JFK and DTW - BEY

JFK and LAX to Tehran once the political bullsh*t is over with

half of US to Havana, see above.

LAX to Busan (might be enough people who want to bypass Seoul)

LAX to Cebu City (might be enough people who want to bypass Manila)

Bariloche to most large South American cities, then they push for the first southern hemisphere winter olympics. I think there are already flights to Santiago, Buenos Aires, and perhaps Sao Paulo.

JFK - Eilat (probably seasonal, possibly charters for Israelis who want to vacation with Israeli families)

ACC - Abuja (Why go through Lagos?)

JFK or EWR - Quito (dicey, the business travellers go to Guayaquil, but more of the Ecuadorian diaspora in New York are closer to Quito, plus there are more touristic stuff to do there, but w/o business pax, it is hard to justify a long-haul route.)

EWR-PVG to replace the dreaded MU JFK-PVG.

MCO - Anywhere in (western) Europe!! Judging by the success, and high loads on the FRA route, its a winner for anyone!!!

Should the price of fuel come down and things improve for the airlines, I think the following would do quite well:

*Hartford CT to Kingston, Jamaica. Big Jamaican population in CT as well as a popular vacation spot for people up here. Delta could make this work

*Hartford to Halifax. Tons of people in Southern New England go to Nova Scotia in the Summer....many hate the long drive. Air Canada Jazz could do this one in a Dash-8.

*Hartford to Jacksonville....Southwest could make this work.

*West Palm Beach to various South American and Carribean destinations....another Miami alternative?

Alitalia

FCO-MEX

Swiss

ZRH-MEX
ZRH-YVR

United

ORD-ATH
ORD-BEY
IAD-ADD

American

JKF-RUH

Delta

JFK-RIX
JFK-ADD

SAS

ARN/CPH-CAI
ARN/CPH-TUN
ARN/CPH-ALG

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Don't know which airline would be up to this, but I always though PVD-LHR would be a great opportunity!

[Edited 2008-06-29 01:56:05]

Quoting SKORD (Reply 34): MCO - Anywhere in (western) Europe!! Judging by the success, and high loads on the FRA route, its a winner for anyone!!!

   Aer Lingus started this route from Dublin in October and are plesantly surprised with the loads. Apparently doing much better than expected...

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 6): But for a long time I've theorized that if Southwest Airlines were granted access to Canada they would be wise to enter the Maritimes.

WN doesn't need to be granted access to Canada. It's Open Skies so any Canadian or U.S. carrier can operate any routes they want between the two countries.

Quoting CairnterriAIR (Reply 35): Hartford to Halifax. Tons of people in Southern New England go to Nova Scotia in the Summer....many hate the long drive. Air Canada Jazz could do this one in a Dash-8.

Seasonal tourist traffic rarely makes routes like that profitable, especially on small commuter/regional aircraft. You need a significant amount of high-yield business traffic as well.

I am pretty sure AMS - DPS could be a profitable route for KLM if flown once or twice a week. Lot of people that would like to go to Bali are held back by the idea of a transit it SIN, HKG or KUL. I am sure there would be enough honeymooners to fill C to an acceptable level too.

Unfortunately DPS is not much of a 'hub' to anywhere so there are no business travellers whatsoever.

Quoting Henkybaby (Reply 39): Unfortunately DPS is not much of a 'hub' to anywhere so there are no business travellers whatsoever.

That's why routes like AMS-DPS are more appropriate for leisure carriers like Martinair with a lower cost base (even without current fuel prices). Major network carriers like KL can't economically operate a once or twice-weekly longhaul route with virtually no business traffic. And what do they do with the crew? Putting a dozen or more crew up in a hotel for several days waiting for the next flight home is a costly and inefficent use of crew resources.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 40): Major network carriers like KL can't economically operate a once or twice-weekly longhaul route with virtually no business traffic. And what do they do with the crew? Putting a dozen or more crew up in a hotel for several days waiting for the next flight home is a costly and inefficent use of crew resources.

Yeah, that got me thinking. How about a once (or twice) a week as a one stop flight without transfer? They could change the crew in SIN or KUL and still have business travellers for that section.

Quoting YULYMX (Reply 20): LAX-GUM NONSTOP alot of People and Cargo on that route...

I've always thought that would do well. Continental has talked about it for the past few years, but it doesn't seem to be a real high priority for them.

Quoting Jgarrido (Reply 42):

They would need a B777 on that route...not sure the B764 can reach GUM from LAX?

Quoting YULYMX (Reply 43): They would need a B777 on that route...not sure the B764 can reach GUM from LAX?

For what it's worth wikipedia list the 764er's range as 5,625 NM. The great circle mapper calculates LAX-GUM as 5,291NM. The two biggest obstacles I see are that COA has to have IAH-HNL. They can't not have a flight from their hub to Hawaii. Also all US Postal Service mail to Guam goes though HNL for customs and sorting. So I imagine any contract that COA has with the USPS is quite important for both sides. A LAX-GUM flight would tend to cannibalize pax from the HNL-GUM segment of their current schedule.

Quoting Jgarrido (Reply 44): Quoting YULYMX (Reply 43): They would need a B777 on that route...not sure the B764 can reach GUM from LAX? For what it's worth wikipedia list the 764er's range as 5,625 NM. The great circle mapper calculates LAX-GUM as 5,291NM.

Keep in mind that manufacturer range figures do not consider wind and make no allowance for cargo, only passengers and their baggage. You generally have to reduce those quoted range figures by 10% to 15% to get a real-world indication of range.

I'd like to bung in a much needed short haul into the eqauation...

LGW-NCE AF Daily A320/A319.

No idea why AF don't fly there from LGW.

DUS-NRT by JAL

In Düsseldorf is a huge japanese population - I think it could be a cashcow with modern costsaving aircrafts ....

MUC-MEX
DUS-MEX

LH A343/A346/744
It seems like LH absolutely can't get anough of the FRA-MEX market. If there is business demand elsewhere in Germany it would be picked up here.

SVO-GRU

I doubt Aeroflot has the range capability for this at all but TAM may with the A345. There are obvious energy industry connections but beyond that, it seems like a like between two of the BRICs, especially extremely wealthy Russia and Brasil would carry quite a bit of premium demand. And on that note,

BOM-GRU
DEL-GRU

Again I don't know about range capabilities or intermediate stops but Kingfisher, Jet Airways, or AI would likely be at the top of the list.

Beyond that, maybe some additional links to JED and some of the second-tier Chinese cities that are starting to make some serious economic noise (although not necessarily between the two).


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