Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
incitatus
Topic Author
Posts: 3400
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:31 pm

The air agreement between Brazil and Singapore was updated a couple of months ago allowing for double daily flights (with a restriction on Sao Paulo) and with a fifth freedom provision - that is, Brazil will not restrict traffic rights if Singapore Air makes an intermediate stop.

The air agreement with Hong Kong is stale and dates from the time Varig opened its Hong Kong route via South Africa and Bangkok.

With a far away airline like Emirates being able to make Sao Paulo work as a destination, would Cathay or Singapore consider serving it?

Oil is still expensive and the world economy is slowing. Thus I am thinking it will not happen in the cycle. The world economy will have to hit bottom and perk up, and Cathay and Singapore will take a serious look at flying into GRU 5 to 7 years from now. But I could be wrong.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
kiwiandrew

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:37 pm

I would love to see SQ operate a SIN-AKL-GRU flight to provide a much needed Star Alliance route between Australasia and South America .... but I wont hold my breath waiting for it to happen
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19316
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:53 pm



Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
With a far away airline like Emirates being able to make Sao Paulo work as a destination, would Cathay or Singapore consider serving it?

DXB isn't that far away. There are many nonstop routes longer than DXB-GRU. HKG and SIN are much further (HKG almost 50% further and SIN over 30% further) and unlike DXB-GRU, couldln't be operated nonstop by current aircraft. Those extremely longhaul routes are also the most affected by high fuel prices. A daily service on those routes which would be necessary to compete with the many other carriers operating daily connecting services would probably require 4 aircraft.

Nonstop great circle mileage.

DXB-GRU 6597 nm
SIN-GRU 8644 nm
HKG-GRU 9728 nm
 
SInGAPORE_AIR
Posts: 11622
Joined: Mon Nov 13, 2000 4:06 am

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Tue Sep 09, 2008 3:53 pm

Once the new-generation of aircraft come online (B789/A359) then perhaps these routes wouldn't have such a prohibitive and financially distateful trip cost.

Until then, I won't hold my breathe !
Anyone can fly, only the best Soar.
 
hardiwv
Posts: 4341
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2004 11:30 pm

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Tue Sep 09, 2008 4:21 pm



Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
With a far away airline like Emirates being able to make Sao Paulo work as a destination, would Cathay or Singapore consider serving it?

Plus KE also making ICN-GRU work. With GRU about to become a major worldwide Star hub I would not be surprised to see SQ landing in GRU. As mentioned, the flight could operate via other Star hubs such as AKL or JNB.

Rgs,
 
B747-4U3
Posts: 617
Joined: Fri Jan 04, 2002 8:08 am

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Tue Sep 09, 2008 5:26 pm

The most practical route for these flights would be via South Africa, which is a country which doesn't seem overly keen on granting 5th Freedom rights. As I remember, they refused to allow an increase in 5th Freedom rights for MH on their 2 weekly KUL-JNB-CPT-EZE flights.
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19316
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Tue Sep 09, 2008 5:30 pm



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 4):
Plus KE also making ICN-GRU work.

I think that route is still too new to say how successful it's gong to be. You can always fill a flight if fares are low enough, but profitability is something else.
 
incitatus
Topic Author
Posts: 3400
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Tue Sep 09, 2008 5:58 pm



Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 2):
DXB isn't that far away.

I believe that the longest nonstop out of GRU after DXB is GRU-LAX, which is 1450 miles shorter.

Quoting Kiwiandrew (Reply 1):
I would love to see SQ operate a SIN-AKL-GRU

That choice would be surprising. An AKL stop would add something like 5 hours to the trip compared to a stop in say South Africa.

Quoting B747-4U3 (Reply 5):
The most practical route for these flights would be via South Africa,

Neither Cathay nor Singapore have 77Ls, but how about GRU-BOM-HKG or GRU-BOM-SIN? GRU-BOM is the ideal distance for the 77L. I don't think the Brazil-India market is large enough for GRU-BOM today, but it may be in five years. If Boeing delivers a bit of range improvement on the 77Ws, Cathay might even able to do the route with them. Or Cathay could try a Southern Europe stop.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
LipeGIG
Posts: 5063
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 7:33 am

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Tue Sep 09, 2008 6:15 pm



Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
With a far away airline like Emirates being able to make Sao Paulo work as a destination, would Cathay or Singapore consider serving it?

Dubai allows connections to India, all Middle East, it's not so bad to go to Japan or China. Singapore will be a longer way and would demand two stops. Of course it's a top brand and would attract many people, but i don't know if it works (it would depend on which stop you select). There's no strong O&D for Cathay or Singapore at this time.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 6):
I think that route is still too new to say how successful it's gong to be. You can always fill a flight if fares are low enough, but profitability is something else.

Agree 100%
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
cloudyapple
Posts: 1261
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 7:01 am

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:32 pm

If there is any genuine demand for these routes you'd expect to see codeshares on their alliance partners now. There aren't any. If these aren't even viable as codeshares then forget about any direct flights. No chance.

These are ideal alliance routes. If there is a connection through AA or UA via one of the American ports, the best way to go is a codeshare.

[Edited 2008-09-09 12:39:17]
A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
 
hardiwv
Posts: 4341
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2004 11:30 pm

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:36 pm



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 8):
Dubai allows connections to India, all Middle East, it's not so bad to go to Japan or China. Singapore will be a longer way and would demand two stops.

The key issue would be which destination SQ would exercise 5th freedom rights. Although O&D SIN-GRU is not strong SQ could make use of 5th freedom rights to capitalise on intermediary demand in-between Star hubs such as JNB or even trying to explore untapped markets such as GIG, e.g. SIN-JNB-GIG, or SIN-FRA-GIG, SIN-MXP-GIG.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 6):
I think that route is still too new to say how successful it's gong to be. You can always fill a flight if fares are low enough, but profitability is something else.

No doubt. I agree. However, KE proved there are untapped market for Asian carriers to land in Brazil through stop-overs. As I said, key to this type operation is which market 5th freedom right is exercised.

Btw, KE is not the type of airline which fills its flights with "cheap fares", especially when you operate a premium 3-class plane such as the B772.

Rgs,
 
Viscount724
Posts: 19316
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Tue Sep 09, 2008 8:25 pm



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 10):
Btw, KE is not the type of airline which fills its flights with "cheap fares", especially when you operate a premium 3-class plane such as the B772.

I know quite a few airlines that would disagree with that statement.
 
B747-4U3
Posts: 617
Joined: Fri Jan 04, 2002 8:08 am

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Tue Sep 09, 2008 9:30 pm



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 10):
No doubt. I agree. However, KE proved there are untapped market for Asian carriers to land in Brazil through stop-overs. As I said, key to this type operation is which market 5th freedom right is exercised.

The difference is, there is a large Korean population in Sao Paulo, and quite strong business links between the two countries. Therefore KE benefits from GRU-LAX, LAX-ICN and GRU-ICN traffic. The same applies to JL on their GRU-JFK-NRT service.

SQ and CX would not have this benefit due to the almost non-existent Singaporean or Hong Kong Chinese population in Sao Paulo and the more limited business links.

To make this route viable SQ or CX really need to pick a good stopover point and take full advantage of 5th Freedom rights. I think JNB would be the perfect intermediate stop as it does not add significantly to the most direct route, there is little competition from South Africa to South America and there is good demand. The problem is, would the SA government give them 5th Freedom rights?
 
Ryanair!!!
Posts: 4127
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2002 8:55 pm

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Wed Sep 10, 2008 2:48 am

Interesting analogy... Not surprising that SQ did indeed study starting Singapore - Brazil (Rio and Sao Paolo) flights in the mid-90s but it just wasn't economically feasible back then. Those were rosy times and if it could not work then, I doubt they are in a hurry to look into it amidst this uncertain period.

MH went ahead with it to EZE and look what happened to them? Besides holding the prestigious title as the only SE Asian carrier to be serving S America, they have nothing going for them as far as profitability is concerned.
Welcome to my starry one world alliance, a team in the sky!
 
LipeGIG
Posts: 5063
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 7:33 am

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Wed Sep 10, 2008 3:29 am



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 10):
The key issue would be which destination SQ would exercise 5th freedom rights. Although O&D SIN-GRU is not strong SQ could make use of 5th freedom rights to capitalise on intermediary demand in-between Star hubs such as JNB or even trying to explore untapped markets such as GIG, e.g. SIN-JNB-GIG, or SIN-FRA-GIG, SIN-MXP-GIG.

Yes, as i mention it depends on the stop they can do. If the stop happens in India for example, could be very interesting, if it happens on JNB isn't so good for São Paulo. Concerning to GIG, i'm aware the quality of information about the demand as well as the use for connections to Brazil or Argentina is quite limited for airlines. So i don't expect such move.
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
Lambert747
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 5:05 pm

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Wed Sep 10, 2008 3:36 am



Quoting Kiwiandrew (Reply 1):
I would love to see SQ operate a SIN-AKL-GRU flight to provide a much needed Star Alliance route between Australasia and South America .... but I wont hold my breath waiting for it to happen

Didn't NZ announce that one of their new routes they are intending to serve is GRU-AKL? In that instance SQ could very simply code share without dedicating aircraft to serve the GRU market.

Quoting B747-4U3 (Reply 5):
The most practical route for these flights would be via South Africa, which is a country which doesn't seem overly keen on granting 5th Freedom rights.

GRU-JNB is a good route, however for one airline. Placing more than one airline on that route would prove pointless. The route is very well served at current using SA.

Quoting B747-4U3 (Reply 12):

SQ and CX would not have this benefit due to the almost non-existent Singaporean or Hong Kong Chinese population in Sao Paulo and the more limited business links.

There is a very strong demand for traffic from China to Brazil. CA entering the market and the ongoing interest in the Brazilian market shows that there is demand and there is a use for such a route. Another point is that SQ and MI connects to a number of Chinese markets inclusive of:

Chengdu, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Peking, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Xiamen

It is possible for SQ to open a route to South America. If they do 99% odds say that it will be GRU via Europe or Africa. No one knows for sure but if I were to guess I would think that a new route such as SIN-LOS which could pull the strong premium yields from the Nigerian oil markets and the LOS-GRU sector which would pull again from the strong Nigerian oil markets. SQ has one of the best onboard products of any airline. CA was a miserable airline to have flown on and their service to GRU was doomed from the start. SQ is a remarkable airline, adding a market such as LOS is only a matter of time. Bridging the SQ network to South America is a matter of time, not a maybe.
Sei di Verona se tuo papà, tuo nonno o tuo bisnonno era un alpino...
 
hardiwv
Posts: 4341
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2004 11:30 pm

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:00 am



Quoting B747-4U3 (Reply 12):
The difference is, there is a large Korean population in Sao Paulo, and quite strong business links between the two countries. Therefore KE benefits from GRU-LAX, LAX-ICN and GRU-ICN traffic. The same applies to JL on their GRU-JFK-NRT service.

You are totally right this explains JAL and KE inroads in Brazil.

Quoting Ryanair!!! (Reply 13):
MH went ahead with it to EZE and look what happened to them? Besides holding the prestigious title as the only SE Asian carrier to be serving S America, they have nothing going for them as far as profitability is concerned.

MH flight to EZE is a money looser and we know how mismanaged MH is.

Quoting Lambert747 (Reply 15):
they do 99% odds say that it will be GRU via Europe or Africa.

The bilateral Brazil-Singapore does not allow for the route to be via the US, only Europe or Africa. Is SQ currently using 5th freedom rights in any routes in Europe? In the pas SQ operated AMS-JFK B747 and I used this flight a couple of times.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 14):
Concerning to GIG, i'm aware the quality of information about the demand as well as the use for connections to Brazil or Argentina is quite limited for airlines. So i don't expect such move.

We know GRU is operating with limitations of slots (as included in the bilateral with Singapore), plus other airlines proved there is demand in GIG, both low and high yields. Regarding intra-South American connections this has improved consistently over the years. Now GIG is linked nonstop to EZE, SCL, MVD, LIM, PTY.

Rgs,
 
hz747300
Posts: 2420
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 11:38 pm

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:17 am

It may not be pleasant transferring in LAX, but I assume it is just easier for CX to move passengers that way to South America.

I would like to go to South America on holiday, but I think it would have to be two weeks because of the time spent to and from right now seems killer!
Keep on truckin'...
 
brightcedars
Posts: 762
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2004 6:18 pm

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:24 am

I guess SQ would have the right to do a SIN-BRU-GRU, it could be nice as part of SN being taken over by LH and joining Star Alliance. SQ could even code-share on the route with SN and the upcoming Brazilian Star Alliance member (JJ?). Problem would be filling the plane on a frequent enough basis to be attractive for business people.

Also a nice oil route with I better better economics than SIN-LOS-GRU could be SIN-LAD-GRU. That could hit a jackpot. But again you can't think of such a route and start it daily.

Now it could be that those frequencies are (also) intended for a cargo service in which case SQ can do a SIN-BRU-DKR-GRU, who knows. Why would Singapore have gone through re-negotiating their bilateral with Brazil if there was no demand from the business community behind on either end?
 
dennys
Posts: 694
Joined: Tue May 08, 2001 11:19 pm

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:27 am

i still think CX should hand over the ex TGs A345s to open this link N Stop .

dennys
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7889
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Wed Sep 10, 2008 10:55 am

I'm pretty sure SQ studied a SIN-AKL-GRU route at one stage. AKL-GRU is a long flight though!

Quoting Lambert747 (Reply 15):
Didn't NZ announce that one of their new routes they are intending to serve is GRU-AKL? In that instance SQ could very simply code share without dedicating aircraft to serve the GRU market.

Possibly. I think TG could have done BKK-AKL-GRU with a 346 maybe as a star link with NZ and SQ connections.
 
tayser
Posts: 436
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2008 10:49 pm

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Wed Sep 10, 2008 11:17 am

SIN-AKL-GRU 11044NM
SIN-SYD-GRU 10624NM
SIN-MEL-GRU 10347NM

SQ would have a good argument that SYD/MEL are "on the way" to GRU if they were to pursue 5th freedom rights through Australia to South America.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7889
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Wed Sep 10, 2008 11:21 am



Quoting Tayser (Reply 21):
SIN-AKL-GRU 11044NM
SIN-SYD-GRU 10624NM
SIN-MEL-GRU 10347NM

SQ would have a good argument that SYD/MEL are "on the way" to GRU if they were to pursue 5th freedom rights through Australia to South America.

Problem is the length of the MEL/SYD/AKL-GRU flights, AKL may be doable with a 343 or 744 but SYD/MEL probably wouldn't be.
 
GneissGuy
Posts: 169
Joined: Mon Jul 24, 2006 6:42 pm

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Wed Sep 10, 2008 11:21 am

I don't think SQ are interested in this route at the moment. The transpacific route via Australia is their top priority followed by the emerging markets of India and China.

South America, no doubt exotic, does not warrant a SQ flight at the moment due to low yield i guess.....
 
brightcedars
Posts: 762
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2004 6:18 pm

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Wed Sep 10, 2008 11:46 am

Is there any measurement of the traffic Singapore-Brazil? With SQ being a close partner to LH it could be that they were happy to route even a substantial amount of traffic through FRA and MUC, but now that EK has established a nonstop link DXB-GRU, they might feel compelled to act differently.
 
LipeGIG
Posts: 5063
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 7:33 am

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Wed Sep 10, 2008 1:34 pm



Quoting BrightCedars (Reply 24):
Is there any measurement of the traffic Singapore-Brazil?

It's very limited. Shipyards, financial industry. Tourism Singapore-Brazil may increase the demand, as well as closer countries.

Quoting Lambert747 (Reply 15):
No one knows for sure but if I were to guess I would think that a new route such as SIN-LOS which could pull the strong premium yields from the Nigerian oil markets and the LOS-GRU sector which would pull again from the strong Nigerian oil markets.

If you're focusing Oil, you're looking to the wrong final destination.

Quoting BrightCedars (Reply 18):
Also a nice oil route with I better better economics than SIN-LOS-GRU could be SIN-LAD-GRU. That could hit a jackpot. But again you can't think of such a route and start it daily.

I doubt Angola will allow such stop. They are very restrictive to allow flights, imagine a flight that continues to it's gold mine, and even Angola TAAG is not able to fly to GRU, only GIG. And again, São Paulo isn't a oil city.
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
incitatus
Topic Author
Posts: 3400
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Wed Sep 10, 2008 1:46 pm



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 16):
The bilateral Brazil-Singapore does not allow for the route to be via the US, only Europe or Africa.

It would be questionable if SQ tried to serve Brazil through the US. It would be a very long detour.

Quoting Lambert747 (Reply 15):
No one knows for sure but if I were to guess I would think that a new route such as SIN-LOS

There are some airports that at this point are just not desirable stopovers because of facilities. Lagos is one of them. Even Bombay is debatable. Luanda would be worse than both.

Quoting HZ747300 (Reply 17):
It may not be pleasant transferring in LAX, but I assume it is just easier for CX to move passengers that way to South America.

HKG-LAX-GRU is 13400 mi. HKG-FCO-GRU is 11640 mi.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 8):
There's no strong O&D for Cathay or Singapore at this time.

I agree on that for Singapore. Some Brazilian companies like Embraer have offices there. But I think there is not a lot of them. However, Hong Kong is a different story and there is a lot more air travel from Brazil to Hong Kong.

Like I said earlier I don't think these routes will happen in the next five years, but we can talk!

Quoting Dennys (Reply 19):
i still think CX should hand over the ex TGs A345s to open this link N Stop

I can't tell that exactly but I am not sure the A340-500 has the range to do HKG-GRU nonstop. I think it does not because HKG-GRU is longer than SIN-JFK. The 777 LR definetely has it. If Cathay bought the type, GRU would be in their shortlist.
I do not consume Murdoch products including the Wall Street Journal
 
LipeGIG
Posts: 5063
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 7:33 am

RE: Cathay Or Singapore Air To Sao Paulo?

Wed Sep 10, 2008 3:03 pm



Quoting Incitatus (Reply 26):
I agree on that for Singapore. Some Brazilian companies like Embraer have offices there. But I think there is not a lot of them. However, Hong Kong is a different story and there is a lot more air travel from Brazil to Hong Kong.

Like I said earlier I don't think these routes will happen in the next five years, but we can talk!

IMO, Hong Kong would be almost the same size of Singapore. With China more focused on Foreign Trade places like Shangai and Guangzhou (among others), become important business centers, and therefore attract more visitors that in the past use to travel to Hong Kong.

And depending on the routing, could be like CA service, good loads with bad yields.
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos